Forecasting method and system of speed of instantaneous extremely strong wind caused by tropical cyclone at coastal region

Abstract

The invention provides a forecasting method and system of a speed of an instantaneous extremely strong wind caused by a tropical cyclone at a coastal region. The method comprises the following steps: historical tropical cyclone data having a windy influence on a to-be-measured area as well as historical data of instantaneous extremely strong wind speed per hour of the to-be-measured area within corresponding time are collected; according to the strength, the historical tropical cyclone data are categorized to obtain data of various tropical cyclones; a forecasting range of the to-be-measured area is divided into a plurality of square longitude-latitude grids with areas of 1degree * 1degree, and for each kind of tropical cyclone, a path point with a maximum instantaneous extremely strong wind speed at the to-be-measured area is selected in the grid for the same tropical cyclone, and distances of all path points and the to-be-measured area and orientations are calculated; a position and space distribution diagram of the instantaneous extremely strong wind speeds caused by the various tropical cyclones at the to-be-measured area is made; and according to strength and path information of a tropical cyclone that is going to be forecasted in future, an instantaneous extremely strong wind that is going to be caused at the to-be-measured area is forecasted and outputted by combining the instantaneous extremely strong wind position and space distribution diagram. In addition, the invention also provides a corresponding forecasting system.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of analysis and measurement control, and in particular to a method and system for instantaneous extreme wind speed forecasting caused by tropical cyclones in coastal areas. Background technique [0002] According to international practice, tropical cyclones are divided into tropical depressions according to the maximum wind force near the center of tropical cyclones (also commonly known as hurricanes, typhoons or tropical storms, etc.): Tropical depression (Tropical depression), maximum wind speed 6-7, (10.8-17.1m / s); Tropicalstorm, the maximum wind speed is 8~9, (17.2~24.4m / s); Severe tropical storm, the maximum wind speed is 10~11, (24.5~32.6m / s); Typhoon (Ty-phoon ), the maximum wind speed is 12~13 (32.7m / s~41.4m / s); severe typhoon (severetyphoon), the maximum wind speed is 14~15 (41.5m / s~50.9m / s); super typhoon (SuperTyphoon ), the maximum wind speed is ≥16 (≥51.0m / s). Tropical cyclones are one of the ...

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Problems solved by technology

[0004] The purpose of the present invention is, based on mathematical statistics theory, to solve the problem that the traditional techn

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