S-shaped model-based lead demand prediction method

Abstract

The invention relates to an S-shaped model-based lead demand prediction method, belongs to the technical field of medium and long-term demand prediction of lead in the nation, regions and industries, and solves the problems of lack of theoretical support, large result deviation and low reliability of other prediction methods. The method comprises the steps of determining an "S"-shaped theoretical model of a lead consumption mode according to an "S"-shaped physical model between lead consumption per capita and GDP per capita; establishing a lead demand prediction model equation having universality and taking the GDP per capita as an independent variable by applying a hyperbolic tangent function mathematic method; determining related parameters through different national or regional history data; determining a specific equation of a prediction object; and substituting the GDP per capita in a given prediction period into the equation to obtain a corresponding prediction result. The method has the advantages that a medium and long-term lead demand prediction method with universality and pertinence is established by taking a basic lead consumption law as guidance, and the method is high in reliability and confidence, practical, convenient and easy to realize and popularize.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention relates to a quantitative lead demand prediction method, which is based on the "S" shape theoretical model between per capita GDP and per capita lead consumption, using the hyperbolic tangent function mathematical method to construct a prediction equation, which can be used for medium and long-term lead demand prediction methods. It is directly applied to fields such as lead exploration, development, production, utilization, transportation, and trade. The invention also relates to a method for constructing a prediction equation. Background technique [0002] At present, the lead demand forecasting methods can be generally divided into two categories: qualitative forecasting and quantitative forecasting. [0003] Qualitative forecasting usually gives future lead demand based on subjective experience judgment, the most representative ones are Delphi method and analogy method. The Delphi method is to judge and determine the future ...

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Problems solved by technology

[0008] The present invention aims at the deficiencies of the prior art, and determines the "S" shape theoretical model of the lead consumption pattern based on the "S" shape physical model between the constructed per capita lead consumption and the per capita GDP, and then uses the hyperbolic tangent function mathematical method to establish the lead The demand forecasting model equation has formed a new quantitative forecasting technology and method suitable for medium and long-term lead demand in different countries / regions, which fundamentally solves the problems of lack of theoretical support, large deviation of results and low reliability in previous forecasts

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