Method and system for evaluating operation reliability of micro-grid

Abstract

The invention discloses a method and system for evaluating the operation reliability of a micro-grid. The method comprises the steps of determining total sampling times of monte-carlo simulation; carrying out iterative computation of sampling times and obtaining the total electricity capable of supplying a load with the electricity and the load demand in a sampling period corresponding to current sampling of the micro-grid; obtaining a load power shortage time expected value under the condition of considering an energy storage device in the sampling period; if the sampling times is not greater than the total sampling times, further carrying out iterative computation of the sampling times; and or else, existing sampling iteration, computing the power shortage probability and the load power shortage time expected value of the micro-grid in a reliability analysis period of the micro-grid and evaluating the operation reliability of the micro-grid. According to the method and the system, an intermittent uncontrolled distributed power supply is simulated by adopting a multi-state model, a normal distribution-based multi-stage load level model is adopted by the load, and the method and the system are suitable for operation reliability analysis of various micro-grids and have good application prospects.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of power system reliability analysis, in particular to a method for evaluating the reliability of microgrid operation. Background technique [0002] At present, because the microgrid is connected to various distributed generation (Distributed Generation, DG), the microgrid has new characteristics different from the distribution network. In the reliability analysis of the microgrid, it is considered that the output continuity and stability of the DG with constant output characteristics is similar to that of a synchronous generator. Only the random outage of the DG needs to be considered, and the two-state model (working state and outage state), DG failure outage time is suitable to be described by exponential distribution. However, when the microgrid uses renewable energy such as wind turbines or solar photovoltaic power generation to supply power to the load, the output of the microgrid is significantly ran...

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Problems solved by technology

[0004] The purpose of the present invention is to overcome the problem that prior art cannot carry out reliability assessment to microgrid

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