Power distribution network multi-dimensional planning method and system considering extreme natural disasters

Abstract

The invention relates to the technical field of disaster power grid resource allocation, in particular to a power distribution network multi-dimensional planning method and system considering extreme natural disasters, and aims to solve the problem of how to consider the fluctuation condition of the working state of a working cable before the extreme weather comes. In order to solve the problem, the planning method provided by the invention comprises the following steps: storing a power supply load curve of a working cable within a target time; according to the power supply load curve of the reference workday, obtaining the loss condition of the working cable in the extreme weather, and according to the loss condition, calculating an early warning threshold value of the working cable in various extreme weathers; calculating an extreme influence value corresponding to each extreme weather according to the weather forecast, and recording the duration of each extreme weather as an extreme duration; and comparing the extreme influence value with an early warning threshold value, and calculating the risk probability of the fault of the working cable.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of disaster power grid resource allocation, and in particular to a multi-dimensional planning method and system for a distribution network taking extreme natural disasters into consideration. Background Art

[0002] In recent years, due to global warming, the frequency and intensity of extreme weather have increased significantly. When working cables are operating in extreme weather, the probability of damage is much higher than usual. Once a working cable fails in extreme weather, the difficulty of emergency repair will be greatly increased compared to usual. At present, it is possible to accurately predict the arrival of extreme weather based on weather forecasts and historical data. Pre-maintaining working cables with safety hazards before the arrival of extreme weather can greatly reduce the probability of failure of working cables. In related technologies, when determining safety hazards, judgments are often made based on the normal working conditions of the working cables, and it is not considered that when extreme weather arrives, the working conditions of the working cables themselves will change. This results in many working cables that should be maintained in advance not being maintained, resulting in short circuit failures, tripping, and large-scale power outages. Therefore, before the arrival of extreme weather, how to take into account the fluctuations in the working state of the working cables themselves and improve the accuracy of determining safety hazards is one of the problems that technical personnel in this field urgently need to solve. Summary of the invention

[0003] The problem solved by the present invention is: before the extreme weather arrives, how to take into account the fluctuation of the working state of the working cable itself and improve the accuracy of determining potential safety hazards.

[0004] To solve the above problems, an embodiment of the present invention provides a multi-dimensional planning method for a distribution network taking into account extreme natural disasters. The planning method comprises: establishing a data management library, adding all working cables in a target area to the data management library, and storing the power supply load curve of the working cables within the target time; obtaining the weather conditions of the target area every day within the target time, taking the working diary with extreme weather as the reference working day, and taking the working diary without extreme weather as the benchmark working day; obtaining the loss of the working cable under extreme weather according to the power supply load curve of the reference working day, and calculating the warning threshold of the working cable under various extreme weather according to the loss; obtaining the weather forecast for the future time, and judging whether there is extreme weather according to the weather forecast. weather; if so, record the working day with possible extreme weather as a management working day, calculate the extreme impact value corresponding to each extreme weather according to the weather forecast, and record the duration of each extreme weather as the extreme duration; compare the extreme impact value with the warning threshold, when the extreme impact value is greater than the warning threshold, calculate the adjustment difference according to the extreme impact value and the warning threshold, and calculate the risk probability of failure of the working cable according to the adjustment difference; when the risk probability of the working cable is greater than or equal to the risk threshold, record the working cable as a cable to be maintained, and determine the maintenance method of the cable to be maintained according to the impact range and extreme duration of the cable to be maintained; when the risk probability is less than the risk threshold, the working cable does not need to be maintained; if not, the working cable does not need to be maintained.

[0005] Compared with the existing technology, the technical effects achieved by adopting this technical solution are as follows: by establishing a data management library to realize the management and control of all working cables in the target area, the acquisition of the power supply load curve within the target time can obtain the power supply situation of the working cable that is more in line with the current working environment, and also reduce the impact of the working cable's own loss on the power supply load curve. The classification of benchmark working days and reference working days can quickly filter out the required data from the data management library when extreme weather arrives. The setting of the early warning threshold can obtain the bearing condition of each working cable according to the power supply load curve. The setting of the extreme impact value can make a judgment based on the relevant data of extreme weather, making the screening of cables to be maintained more accurate. The setting of risk probability and risk threshold can obtain the failure probability of each cable to be maintained in the face of extreme weather, so that maintenance personnel can make reasonable arrangements for maintenance work according to actual conditions, further improving the rationality of the planning method.

[0006] In one embodiment of the present invention, the weather conditions of the target area are obtained every day within the target time, and the work diary with extreme weather is used as the reference workday, and the work diary without extreme weather is used as the benchmark workday, specifically including: obtaining the weather type of each workday, the weather types include sunny, cloudy, rainy, foggy and snowy; when the weather type is cloudy or foggy, the work diary is used as the benchmark workday; when the weather type is sunny, rainy and snowy, whether the current workday is a reference workday is determined according to the extreme duration and extreme impact value.

[0007] Compared with the existing technology, the technical effect achieved by adopting this technical solution is as follows: the setting of extreme duration and extreme impact value makes the determination of benchmark working days more accurate, avoiding the interference of short-term extreme weather on the determination of cable maintenance.

[0008] In one embodiment of the present invention, the loss of the working cable under extreme weather conditions is obtained based on the power supply load curve of a reference working day, and the warning thresholds of the working cable under various extreme weather conditions are calculated based on the loss conditions, specifically including: analyzing the power supply load curve to obtain the power supply fluctuation of the working cable within the extreme duration; obtaining the extreme level of extreme weather corresponding to the reference working day, and determining the basic influence coefficient of the working cable under extreme weather conditions based on the power supply fluctuation and the extreme level; obtaining the basic loss rate of the working cable from the data management library, and correcting the basic loss rate based on the basic influence coefficient to obtain the corrected loss rate; and calculating the warning threshold based on the corrected loss rate and the basic loss rate.

[0009] Compared with the existing technology, the technical effect achieved by adopting this technical solution is as follows: by analyzing the extreme weather encountered by the working cable within the target time, the changes in the working cable's own power supply load under various extreme weather conditions are obtained, and the extreme levels are determined. The extreme weather encountered by the working cable can be classified according to the degree of extremeness, and then the basic influence coefficient is calculated in combination with the power supply fluctuation situation, so that the basic influence coefficient is more in line with the actual working conditions of the working cable, the calculation of the loss rate is corrected, and the natural loss of the working cable is combined with the additional loss caused by extreme weather, which more intuitively reflects the impact of extreme weather on the loss degree of the working cable, making the calculated warning threshold more accurate.

[0010] In one embodiment of the present invention, the extreme level of extreme weather corresponding to a reference working day is obtained, and the basic impact coefficient of the working cable under extreme weather is determined according to the power supply fluctuation and the extreme level, specifically including: obtaining a level reference quantity corresponding to the extreme weather, determining the extreme level according to the level reference quantity, and obtaining the extreme power supply value of the working cable within the extreme duration according to the power supply fluctuation; selecting a benchmark working day corresponding to the reference working day from a data management library, recording it as a comparison working day, recording the time period corresponding to the comparison working day and the extreme duration as a comparison period, and calculating the average power supply value within the comparison period; calculating the basic impact coefficient based on the average power supply value and the extreme power supply value.

[0011] Compared with the existing technology, the technical effect achieved by adopting this technical solution is as follows: by comparing the selection of working days, the calculated average power supply value is more in line with the normal working status of the working cable, and can better reflect the normal power supply situation of the working cable. The acquisition of the power supply extreme value can obtain the extreme situations that may occur when the working cable copes with different levels of extreme weather, making the basic influence coefficient more accurate.

[0012] In one embodiment of the present invention, if so, the work diary in which extreme weather may exist is recorded as a management work day, and the extreme impact value corresponding to each extreme weather and the duration of each extreme weather are calculated according to the weather forecast and recorded as the extreme duration, specifically including: obtaining the number of extreme weather occurrences, and when only one extreme weather occurs, determining the extreme level according to the extreme impact value, and determining the extreme impact value according to the extreme level; when there are multiple extreme weather occurrences, obtaining the extreme levels corresponding to various extreme weathers, and determining the compensation coefficient according to the maximum value of the extreme level and the type of extreme weather; calculating the unit impact value of various extreme weather under the extreme level, screening out the maximum value of the unit impact value, recorded as the unit extreme value, and calculating the extreme impact value according to the compensation coefficient and the unit extreme value.

[0013] Compared with the existing technology, the technical effect achieved by adopting this technical solution is as follows: the calculation of the unit impact value can accurately calculate the extreme impact value according to the degree of impact caused by different extreme weather when multiple extreme weathers occur at the same time; the setting of the compensation coefficient can compensate the unit impact value according to the extreme level of another extreme weather, further improving the accuracy of the extreme impact value, fully considering the impact of multiple extreme weathers on working cables, and improving the practicability of the planning method.

[0014] In one embodiment of the present invention, the extreme impact value is compared with the warning threshold. When the extreme impact value is greater than the warning threshold, an adjustment difference is calculated based on the extreme impact value and the warning threshold, and the risk probability of failure of the working cable is calculated based on the adjustment difference, specifically including: calculating the maintenance threshold and the basic failure rate of the working cable based on the adjustment difference; when the extreme impact value is less than the maintenance threshold, the basic failure rate has a first rising coefficient, and the risk probability is calculated based on the first rising coefficient and the extreme duration; when the extreme impact value is greater than or equal to the maintenance threshold, the basic failure rate has a second rising coefficient, and the risk probability is calculated based on the second rising coefficient and the extreme duration; wherein the second rising coefficient is greater than the first rising coefficient.

[0015] Compared with the existing technology, the technical effect achieved by adopting this technical solution is as follows: according to the adjustment difference when the working cable faces extreme weather, the basic failure rate that meets the current working status is obtained, the first rise coefficient and the second rise coefficient are set, and the basic failure rate is combined with the maintenance threshold to make the risk probability more accurate.

[0016] In one embodiment of the present invention, when the risk probability of a working cable is greater than or equal to a risk threshold, the working cable is recorded as a cable to be maintained, and the maintenance method of the cable to be maintained is determined according to the impact range and extreme duration of the cable to be maintained, specifically including: obtaining the length of time between the current date and the management working day, recording it as the maintainable period, and determining the maintenance order of the cables to be maintained in the target area; and maintaining the cables to be maintained before the extreme weather arrives according to the maintenance order.

[0017] Compared with the existing technology, the technical effect achieved by adopting this technical solution is as follows: the calculation of the maintainable time period makes the sorting of the maintenance sequence more convenient, and also provides maintenance personnel with sufficient maintenance time, ensuring that the cables to be maintained can be maintained normally.

[0018] In one embodiment of the present invention, the length of time between the current date and the management working day is obtained, recorded as the maintainable period, and the maintenance order of the cables to be maintained in the target area is determined, specifically including: determining a first sorting coefficient according to the impact range, and determining a second sorting coefficient according to the extreme duration; obtaining the position of the maintenance team in the target area, and calculating the driving time of the maintenance team to reach each cable to be maintained; calculating the maintenance duration of the cables to be maintained according to the driving time, the first sorting coefficient and the second sorting coefficient, and determining the maintenance order of the cables to be maintained according to the maintenance duration.

[0019] Compared with the existing technology, the technical effects achieved by adopting this technical solution are as follows: the setting of the first sorting coefficient and the second sorting coefficient makes the maintenance order of the cables to be maintained more reasonable. In the face of sudden extreme weather, important cables to be maintained can be maintained first to reduce the impact of extreme weather. The calculation of driving time can calculate the maintenance time based on the distance when the importance of the cables to be maintained is similar, thereby improving the overall maintenance rate of the cables to be maintained.

[0020] In one embodiment of the present invention, the present invention also provides a multi-dimensional planning system for a distribution network taking into account extreme natural disasters, the planning system comprising: a storage module, a data management library is arranged in the storage module; a reading module, the reading module is used to read weather forecasts; a calculation module, the calculation module is used to calculate adjustment differences and risk probabilities; a judgment module, the judgment module is used to judge the maintenance method of the cable to be maintained according to the risk probability, the planning method recorded in the above embodiment is applied to the planning system, the planning system has all the technical features of the above-mentioned standard method, which will not be repeated here one by one. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0021] Figure 1 This is one of the flow charts of the multi-dimensional planning method for distribution network of the present invention; Figure 2 This is the second flow chart of the multi-dimensional planning method for distribution network of the present invention; Figure 3 This is the third flow chart of the multi-dimensional planning method for distribution network of the present invention; Figure 4 This is the fourth flow chart of the multi-dimensional planning method for distribution network of the present invention; Figure 5 This is the fifth flow chart of the multi-dimensional planning method for distribution network of the present invention; Figure 6 It is a system schematic diagram of the multi-dimensional planning system of the power distribution network of the present invention; Description of reference numerals: 100 - planning system; 110 - storage module; 120 - reading module; 130 - calculation module; 140 - judgment module. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0022] In order to make the above-mentioned objects, features and advantages of the present invention more obvious and easy to understand, specific embodiments of the present invention are described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings.

[0023] [First embodiment] See also Figure 1 and Figure 2 In a specific embodiment, the present invention provides a multi-dimensional planning method for a distribution network considering extreme natural disasters, the planning method comprising: S100, establishing a data management library, adding all working cables in the target area to the data management library, and storing the power supply load curves of the working cables within the target time; S200, obtaining the weather conditions of the target area every day within the target time, taking the working diary with extreme weather as the reference working day, and taking the working diary without extreme weather as the base working day; S300, obtaining the loss of the working cable under extreme weather conditions according to the power supply load curve of the reference working day, and calculating the warning threshold of the working cable under various extreme weather conditions according to the loss; S400, obtaining a weather forecast for the future, and determining whether there is extreme weather according to the weather forecast; S500: If yes, record the working day with possible extreme weather as a management working day, calculate the extreme impact value corresponding to each extreme weather according to the weather forecast, and record the duration of each extreme weather as the extreme duration; S510, comparing the extreme impact value with the warning threshold, when the extreme impact value is greater than the warning threshold, calculating an adjustment difference according to the extreme impact value and the warning threshold, and calculating the risk probability of a working cable failure according to the adjustment difference; S520, when the risk probability of the working cable is greater than or equal to the risk threshold, the working cable is recorded as a cable to be maintained, and a maintenance method for the cable to be maintained is determined according to the impact range and extreme duration of the cable to be maintained; S530: When the risk probability is less than the risk threshold, the working cable does not need to be maintained; S600: If no, the working cable does not require maintenance.

[0024] In step S100, all cables in the target area need to be added to the data management library before starting operation. The target time is usually two years. The newly operated working cables have a low loss rate, a stable working state, and a low probability of failure. Using the power supply load curve within the target time as a reference can reduce the impact of the working cable's own loss and obtain the actual power supply situation of the working cable in each time period.

[0025] In step S200, the working cables within the target time are mainly used to collect power supply data of the working cables in the target area during extreme weather, and obtain the power supply changes of the working cables in the target area when various extreme weather conditions occur based on the power supply load curve.

[0026] In step S300, for the working cables within the target time, the loss degree of each working cable needs to be updated through manual measurement before and after each extreme weather. The loss degree is displayed as a percentage. For cable equipment that has just been installed, the loss degree is 0. For cable equipment that cannot work, the loss degree is 100%. The closer the loss degree is to 100%, the higher the probability of failure of the working cable during operation.

[0027] In step S500, the future time is usually half a month. When the weather forecast shows that there is extreme weather, the date corresponding to the extreme weather is recorded as a management working day. At the same time, the duration of the extreme weather, that is, the extreme duration, is inferred based on the weather parameters before and after the management working day. The extreme impact value is converted according to the reference standard corresponding to the extreme weather. For example, if the extreme weather is heavy rain, the reference standard of the extreme impact value is the precipitation per unit time. If the extreme weather is heavy snow, the extreme impact value is the snowfall per unit time. If the extreme weather is strong wind, the extreme impact value is the wind force level.

[0028] In step S510 to step S530, the warning threshold is converted according to the working condition of the working cable. Under normal circumstances, the smaller the loss of the working cable, the higher the corresponding warning threshold. When the extreme impact value is greater than the warning threshold, it means that the working cable is likely to fail under the current extreme weather. When the extreme impact value is less than or equal to the warning threshold, the working cable can operate normally under extreme weather. When the working cable is likely to fail, the risk probability is calculated by adjusting the difference. The larger the value of the adjustment difference, the higher the corresponding risk probability. All working cables with risk probabilities will be marked as cables to be maintained. According to different risk probabilities, the maintenance method of the cables to be maintained will also change. When the extreme weather covers a large area or the extreme impact value changes suddenly, it will make it impossible to perform advance maintenance on all cables to be maintained. At this time, it is necessary to select cables to be maintained for maintenance.

[0029] By establishing a data management library, all working cables in the target area can be managed and controlled. The power supply load curve within the target time can be obtained, so that the power supply situation of the working cable is more in line with the current working environment, and the impact of the working cable's own loss on the power supply load curve can be reduced. The classification of benchmark working days and reference working days can quickly filter out the required data from the data management library when extreme weather arrives. The setting of early warning thresholds can obtain the bearing condition of each working cable according to the power supply load curve. The setting of extreme impact values ​​can make judgments based on relevant data of extreme weather, making the screening of cables to be maintained more accurate. The setting of risk probability and risk threshold can obtain the failure probability of each cable to be maintained in the face of extreme weather, so that maintenance personnel can make reasonable arrangements for maintenance work according to actual conditions, further improving the rationality of the planning method.

[0030] [Second embodiment] In a specific embodiment, the weather conditions of the target area are obtained every day within the target time, and the working diary with extreme weather is used as the reference working day, and the working diary without extreme weather is used as the base working day, which specifically includes: S210, obtaining the weather type of each working day, the weather types including sunny day, cloudy day, rainy day, foggy day, and snowy day; S220. When the weather type is cloudy or foggy, the work diary is recorded as the base work day; S230: When the weather type is sunny, rainy or snowy, determine whether the current working day is a reference working day according to the extreme duration and the extreme impact value.

[0031] In steps S210 to S230, foggy days have little effect on the working state of the working cable. When considering extreme weather, usually only rainy and snowy days are considered, and then a judgment is made based on the temperature and wind level on working days. When judging the reference working day, the extreme duration needs to be greater than one hour to avoid misjudging the benchmark working day as a reference working day due to short-term extreme weather.

[0032] It should be noted that each weather type has a corresponding extreme weather type. For example, the extreme weather type corresponding to a rainy day is a rainstorm, and the extreme weather type corresponding to a snowy day is a blizzard.

[0033] For example, when the precipitation within an hour reaches more than 20 mm, the type of extreme weather is heavy rain, but during the rain, only the maximum precipitation is greater than 20 mm for a short period of time and lasts for less than one hour, then the working day cannot be determined as a reference working day.

[0034] The settings of extreme duration and extreme impact value make the determination of benchmark working days more accurate and avoid the interference of short-term extreme weather on the determination of cable maintenance.

[0035] [Third embodiment] See also Figure 3 In a specific embodiment, the loss of the working cable under extreme weather conditions is obtained based on the power supply load curve of the reference working day, and the warning threshold of the working cable under various extreme weather conditions is calculated based on the loss, specifically including: S310, analyzing the power supply load curve to obtain power supply fluctuations of the working cable within an extreme time period; S320, obtaining the extreme level of extreme weather corresponding to the reference working day, and determining the basic influence coefficient of the working cable under extreme weather according to the power supply fluctuation and the extreme level; S330, obtaining a basic loss rate of the working cable from a data management library, correcting the basic loss rate according to a basic influence coefficient to obtain a corrected loss rate, and calculating a warning threshold according to the corrected loss rate and the basic loss rate.

[0036] In step S310, by analyzing the power supply load curve, the change in power consumption of power-consuming equipment in the target area when facing extreme weather can be obtained. For example, when the type of extreme weather is blizzard, the frequency of use of air conditioners in the target area will increase, and the air outlet temperature of the air conditioner will also increase accordingly. At this time, the power supply of some working cables will increase, and in extreme weather, some factories in the industrial area will stop working, which will cause the power supply of some working cables to decrease. Therefore, in extreme weather, the power supply of most working cables will fluctuate. This fluctuation is also caused by extreme weather, and it is necessary to use the data collected in the data management library to make the predicted power supply fluctuation more accurate.

[0037] In step S320, the extreme level is obtained through the reference value corresponding to the extreme weather. The reference value corresponding to the rainstorm weather is the precipitation, the reference value corresponding to the snowstorm weather is the snowfall, and the reference value corresponding to the storm weather is the wind force level. The judgment criteria for the extreme level are stored in the data management library. After the extreme level judgment is completed, the basic impact coefficient is calculated according to the power supply fluctuation of the working cable under different extreme levels.

[0038] In step S330, each time the loss degree is updated through manual measurement, the basic loss rate of the working cable is updated. When calculating the warning threshold and the corrected loss rate, the basic loss rate is directly obtained from the data management library, and then the corrected loss rate is calculated based on the basic influence coefficient and the basic loss rate. The basic loss rate is N1, the corrected loss rate is N0, and the basic influence coefficient is L1. The basic loss rate, the corrected loss rate and the basic influence coefficient satisfy the following relationship: N0=N1×L1.

[0039] The warning threshold is calculated based on the corrected loss rate and the remaining loss value of the working cable, and is divided according to the value of the remaining loss value. The remaining loss value is C, the warning threshold is Y1, and the total duration of extreme weather experienced by the working cable is t. The following relationship is satisfied between the warning threshold, the remaining loss value and the corrected loss rate: When 0<C≤50%, Y1=(1-C)+2N0×t; When 50<C<100%, Y1=(1-C)+N0×t.

[0040] It should be noted that the higher the loss degree of the working cable, the higher the probability of failure when facing voltage fluctuations. Conversely, the lower the loss degree of the working cable, the lower the probability of failure when facing voltage fluctuations. Therefore, the warning threshold needs to be adjusted according to the loss degree of the working cable.

[0041] By analyzing the extreme weather encountered by the working cable within the target time, the changes in the working cable's own power supply load under various extreme weather conditions are obtained. The extreme level is determined, and the extreme weather encountered by the working cable can be classified according to the degree of extremeness. The basic influence coefficient is calculated in combination with the power supply fluctuation situation to make the basic influence coefficient more in line with the actual working conditions of the working cable, correct the calculation of the loss rate, and combine the natural loss of the working cable with the additional loss caused by extreme weather. This can more intuitively reflect the impact of extreme weather on the loss degree of the working cable, making the calculated warning threshold more accurate.

[0042] [Fourth embodiment] See also Figure 4 In a specific embodiment, the extreme level of extreme weather corresponding to the reference working day is obtained, and the basic influence coefficient of the working cable under extreme weather is determined according to the power supply fluctuation and the extreme level, which specifically includes: S321, obtaining a level reference quantity corresponding to extreme weather, determining an extreme level according to the level reference quantity, and obtaining a power supply extreme value of the working cable within an extreme duration according to power supply fluctuations; S322. Select a benchmark working day corresponding to the reference working day from the data management library and record it as the comparison working day. Record the time period corresponding to the comparison working day and the extreme duration as the comparison period. Calculate the average power supply value in the comparison period. Calculate the basic impact coefficient based on the average power supply value and the power supply extreme value.

[0043] In step S321, the extreme level is divided into five levels according to the level reference amount. Each extreme level has a corresponding weather coefficient. The power supply value is the maximum power supply load of the working cable within the extreme duration. The weather coefficient is A, the extreme level is Lv, and the extreme level and the weather coefficient satisfy the following relationship: A=1+0.02×(Lv-1).

[0044] In step S322, the corresponding benchmark working day refers to the benchmark working day that occurs five days before and after the reference working day. The power supply conditions of these comparison working days during the comparison period are calculated to obtain the unit load results. The average of multiple unit load results is calculated to obtain the average power supply value. The basic impact coefficient is calculated based on the power supply extreme value and the average power supply value.

[0045] For example, the reference working day is August 10, and the time period corresponding to the extreme duration is from 20:00 to 22:00. When selecting the benchmark working day, you need to select between August 5 and August 15. The second load result also corresponds to the power supply situation of the working cable from 20:00 to 22:00 every day between August 5 and August 15.

[0046] The fluctuation coefficient is B, the average power supply value is V1, the power supply value is V2, and the rated load of the working cable is V3. The fluctuation coefficient, the average power supply value, the power supply value and the rated load satisfy the following relationship: When V1≥V2, B=0.98; When V1<V2≤V3, B=1; When V1<V3<V2, B=1+0.1×(V2-V1)÷V1; When V3<V1<V2, B=1+0.15×(V2-V1)÷V1.

[0047] The basic influence coefficient is calculated according to the weather coefficient and the fluctuation coefficient. The basic influence coefficient is recorded as L1, then L1 = A × B.

[0048] By comparing the selection of working days, the calculated average power supply value is more in line with the normal working status of the working cable, and can better reflect the normal power supply situation of the working cable. The acquisition of the extreme power supply value can obtain the extreme situations that may occur when the working cable copes with different levels of extreme weather, making the basic influence coefficient more accurate.

[0049] [Fifth embodiment] See also Figure 5 In a specific embodiment, if so, the working days that may have extreme weather are recorded as management working days, and the extreme impact values ​​corresponding to each extreme weather and the duration of each extreme weather are calculated according to the weather forecast and recorded as the extreme duration, specifically including: S501, obtaining the number of extreme weather events, and when only one extreme weather event occurs, determining the extreme level according to the extreme impact value, and determining the extreme impact value according to the extreme level; S502: when multiple extreme weather conditions occur, obtaining extreme levels corresponding to various extreme weather conditions, and determining a compensation coefficient according to a maximum value of the extreme levels and the type of extreme weather conditions; S503, calculating the unit impact values ​​of various extreme weather conditions at extreme levels, selecting the maximum value of the unit impact value, recording it as the unit extreme value, and calculating the extreme impact value based on the compensation coefficient and the unit extreme value.

[0050] In step S502, two types of extreme weather may sometimes occur. When a typhoon comes, the storm is often accompanied by heavy rain. At this time, the two types of extreme weather interact with each other and both will cause losses to the working cables. It is necessary to determine the extreme impact value according to the extreme levels of different extreme weather.

[0051] In step S503, it is necessary to obtain the extreme levels of the two extreme weathers respectively. Each extreme weather has a corresponding unit impact value at each extreme level. When the extreme levels corresponding to the two extreme weathers are the same, the extreme impact value can be obtained by calculating the average of the two unit impact values. When the extreme levels of the two extreme weathers are different, the extreme weather with a higher extreme level is used as a benchmark to obtain the corresponding unit impact value, and the compensation coefficient is determined according to the extreme level of the other extreme weather. Finally, the extreme impact value is obtained according to the compensation coefficient and the unit impact value.

[0052] It should be noted that when there are more than two extreme weather conditions that affect each other, the two extreme weather conditions with the highest extreme levels are selected to calculate the extreme impact value.

[0053] The calculation of the unit impact value can accurately calculate the extreme impact value according to the degree of impact caused by different extreme weather conditions when multiple extreme weather conditions occur at the same time. The setting of the compensation coefficient can compensate the unit impact value according to the extreme level of another extreme weather condition, further improving the accuracy of the extreme impact value, fully considering the impact of multiple extreme weather conditions on working cables, and improving the practicability of the planning method.

[0054] [Sixth embodiment] In a specific embodiment, the extreme impact value is compared with the warning threshold. When the extreme impact value is greater than the warning threshold, an adjustment difference is calculated according to the extreme impact value and the warning threshold. The risk probability of failure of the working cable is calculated according to the adjustment difference, which specifically includes: S511. Calculate the maintenance threshold and basic failure rate of the working cable according to the adjustment difference; S512: When the extreme impact value is less than the maintenance threshold, the basic failure rate has a first rising coefficient, and the risk probability is calculated according to the first rising coefficient and the extreme duration; S513, when the extreme impact value is greater than or equal to the maintenance threshold, the basic failure rate has a second rising coefficient, and the risk probability is calculated according to the second rising coefficient and the extreme duration; The second rise coefficient is greater than the first rise coefficient.

[0055] In step S511, the adjustment difference is Y2, the maintenance threshold is Y3, and the basic failure rate is G. The calculation method of the maintenance threshold and the basic failure rate is as follows: Y3=2Y1+C-1; G=(1-C)÷3+Y2÷2.

[0056] In steps S512 to S513, when the extreme impact value is less than the maintenance threshold, the probability of failure of the working cable is low, and the first rising coefficient is usually 1.05, that is, the corresponding risk probability is 1.05G. When the extreme impact value is greater than or equal to the maintenance threshold, the probability of failure of the working cable will increase, and the second rising coefficient is usually 1.1, that is, the corresponding risk probability is 1.1G.

[0057] According to the adjustment difference when the working cable faces extreme weather, the basic failure rate that meets the current working status is obtained. The first rise coefficient and the second rise coefficient are set. The basic failure rate is combined with the maintenance threshold to make the risk probability more accurate.

[0058] [Seventh embodiment] In a specific embodiment, when the risk probability of the working cable is greater than or equal to the risk threshold, the working cable is recorded as a cable to be maintained, and a maintenance method for the cable to be maintained is determined according to the impact range and extreme duration of the cable to be maintained, specifically including: S521, obtaining the time length between the current date and the management working day, recording it as the maintainable period, and determining the maintenance order of the cables to be maintained in the target area; S522. Maintain the cables to be maintained according to the maintenance sequence before the extreme weather arrives.

[0059] In step S521 and step S522, the cables to be maintained are maintained within the maintainable period. When sorting the maintenance, the risk probabilities of the cables to be maintained are compared first. When the difference in risk probability is within 1%, the impact range of the cables to be maintained is compared first, that is, the power outage range caused by a failure of the cables to be maintained.

[0060] The calculation of the maintainable period makes it easier to sort the maintenance sequence and provides maintenance personnel with sufficient maintenance time, ensuring that the cables to be maintained can be maintained normally.

[0061] [Eighth embodiment] In a specific embodiment, the time length between the current date and the management working day is obtained and recorded as the maintainable period, and the maintenance order of the cables to be maintained in the target area is determined, which specifically includes: S521a, determining a first ranking coefficient according to the impact range, and determining a second ranking coefficient according to the extreme duration; S521b, obtaining the location of the maintenance team in the target area, and calculating the travel time for the maintenance team to reach each cable to be maintained; S521c, calculating the maintenance duration of the cables to be maintained according to the travel time, the first sorting coefficient and the second sorting coefficient, and determining the maintenance order of the cables to be maintained according to the maintenance duration.

[0062] In step S521a, the larger the impact range, the larger the first ranking coefficient, and the longer the extreme duration, the larger the second ranking coefficient.

[0063] In step S521b, a maintenance starting point is set in the target area, and each maintenance starting point has a corresponding maintenance team. The driving time required for each maintenance team to reach the cable to be maintained is calculated according to the location of the maintenance starting point, and each cable to be maintained is allocated based on the driving time.

[0064] In step S521c, the maintenance priority of the cables to be maintained is determined according to the product of the first sorting coefficient and the second sorting coefficient. When the priorities are the same, they are sorted according to the length of the travel time to obtain the maintenance order of the cables to be maintained.

[0065] The settings of the first sorting coefficient and the second sorting coefficient make the maintenance order of the cables to be maintained more reasonable. When facing sudden extreme weather, important cables to be maintained can be maintained first to reduce the impact of extreme weather. The calculation of driving time can calculate the maintenance time based on the distance when the importance of cables to be maintained is similar, thereby improving the overall maintenance rate of cables to be maintained.

[0066] [Ninth embodiment] See also Figure 6In a specific embodiment, the present invention also provides a multi-dimensional planning system 100 for a distribution network taking into account extreme natural disasters. The planning system 100 includes: a storage module 110, in which a data management library is arranged; a reading module 120, in which the reading module 120 is used to read weather forecasts; a calculation module 130, in which the calculation module 130 is used to calculate adjustment differences and risk probabilities; a judgment module 140, in which the judgment module 140 is used to judge the maintenance method of the cable to be maintained according to the risk probability. The planning method described in the above embodiment is applied to the planning system 100, and the planning system 100 has all the technical features of the above-mentioned standard method, which will not be described one by one here.

[0067] Although the present invention is disclosed as above, the present invention is not limited thereto. Any person skilled in the art can make various changes and modifications without departing from the spirit and scope of the present invention. Therefore, the protection scope of the present invention shall be subject to the scope defined by the claims.

Claims

1. A multi-dimensional planning method for distribution network considering extreme natural disasters, characterized in that: The planning method includes: Establishing a data management library, adding all working cables in the target area to the data management library, and storing the power supply load curves of the working cables within the target time; Obtain the weather conditions of the target area every day during the target time, and use the working diary with extreme weather as the reference working day, and use the working diary without the extreme weather as the benchmark working day; Acquire the loss condition of the working cable under the extreme weather conditions according to the power supply load curve of the reference working day, and calculate the warning threshold of the working cable under various extreme weather conditions according to the loss condition; Obtaining the weather forecast for the future, and determining whether the extreme weather exists according to the weather forecast; If so, record the working day in which the extreme weather may occur as a management working day, calculate the extreme impact value corresponding to each extreme weather according to the weather forecast, and record the duration of each extreme weather as the extreme duration; Comparing the extreme impact value with the early warning threshold, when the extreme impact value is greater than the early warning threshold, calculating an adjustment difference according to the extreme impact value and the early warning threshold, and calculating the risk probability of failure of the working cable according to the adjustment difference; When the risk probability of the working cable is greater than or equal to a risk threshold, the working cable is recorded as a cable to be maintained, and a maintenance method of the cable to be maintained is determined according to the impact range of the cable to be maintained and the extreme duration; When the risk probability is less than the risk threshold, the working cable does not need to be maintained; If not, the working cable does not require maintenance.

2. The multi-dimensional planning method for distribution network considering extreme natural disasters according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The step of obtaining the weather conditions of the target area every day during the target time period, taking the working diary with extreme weather as the reference working day, and taking the working diary without the extreme weather as the base working day, specifically includes: Obtain the weather type of each working day, where the weather type includes sunny, cloudy, rainy, foggy, and snowy; When the weather type is cloudy or foggy, the working day is recorded as the reference working day; When the weather type is sunny, rainy or snowy, it is determined whether the current working day is the reference working day according to the extreme duration and the extreme impact value.

3. The multi-dimensional planning method for distribution network considering extreme natural disasters according to claim 2 is characterized in that: The acquiring the loss condition of the working cable under the extreme weather conditions according to the power supply load curve of the reference working day, and calculating the warning threshold of the working cable under various extreme weather conditions according to the loss condition, specifically includes: Analyze the power supply load curve to obtain power supply fluctuation of the working cable within the extreme time period; Obtaining the extreme level of the extreme weather corresponding to the reference working day, and determining the basic influence coefficient of the working cable under the extreme weather according to the power supply fluctuation and the extreme level; Acquire the basic loss rate of the working cable from the data management library, and correct the basic loss rate according to the basic influence coefficient to obtain a corrected loss rate; The warning threshold is calculated according to the corrected loss rate and the basic loss rate.

4. The method for multi-dimensional planning of distribution network considering extreme natural disasters according to claim 3 is characterized in that: The obtaining of the extreme level of the extreme weather corresponding to the reference working day, and determining the basic influence coefficient of the working cable under the extreme weather according to the power supply fluctuation and the extreme level, specifically includes: Obtaining a level reference quantity corresponding to the extreme weather, determining the extreme level according to the level reference quantity, and obtaining a power supply extreme value of the working cable within the extreme duration according to power supply fluctuations; Selecting the reference working day corresponding to the reference working day from the data management database as the comparison working day, recording the time period corresponding to the comparison working day and the extreme duration as the comparison period, and calculating the average power supply value in the comparison period; The basic influence coefficient is calculated according to the average power supply value and the power supply extreme value.

5. The method for multi-dimensional planning of distribution network considering extreme natural disasters according to claim 3 is characterized in that: If so, the working day in which the extreme weather may occur is recorded as a management working day, and the extreme impact value corresponding to each extreme weather and the duration of each extreme weather are calculated according to the weather forecast and recorded as the extreme duration, specifically including: Obtaining the number of occurrences of the extreme weather, and when only one extreme weather occurs, determining the extreme level according to the extreme impact value, and determining the extreme impact value according to the extreme level; When multiple types of extreme weather occur, the extreme levels corresponding to the various extreme weathers are obtained, and a compensation coefficient is determined according to the maximum value of the extreme levels and the type of extreme weather; The unit impact values ​​of various extreme weather conditions at the extreme level are calculated, the maximum value of the unit impact value is screened out and recorded as the unit extreme value, and the extreme impact value is calculated according to the compensation coefficient and the unit extreme value.

6. The method for multi-dimensional planning of distribution network considering extreme natural disasters according to claim 5, characterized in that: The comparing the extreme impact value with the early warning threshold, when the extreme impact value is greater than the early warning threshold, calculating an adjustment difference according to the extreme impact value and the early warning threshold, and calculating the risk probability of the working cable failure according to the adjustment difference, specifically includes: Calculating the maintenance threshold and basic failure rate of the working cable according to the adjustment difference; When the extreme impact value is less than the maintenance threshold, the basic failure rate has a first rising coefficient, and the risk probability is calculated according to the first rising coefficient and the extreme duration; When the extreme impact value is greater than or equal to the maintenance threshold, the basic failure rate has a second rising coefficient, and the risk probability is calculated according to the second rising coefficient and the extreme duration; The second rise coefficient is greater than the first rise coefficient.

7. The method for multi-dimensional planning of distribution network considering extreme natural disasters according to claim 6, characterized in that: When the risk probability of the working cable is greater than or equal to the risk threshold, the working cable is recorded as a cable to be maintained, and a maintenance method of the cable to be maintained is determined according to the impact range of the cable to be maintained and the extreme duration, specifically including: Obtaining the time length between the current date and the management working day, recording it as the maintainable period, and determining the maintenance order of the cables to be maintained in the target area; The cables to be maintained are maintained according to the maintenance sequence before the extreme weather arrives.

8. The multi-dimensional planning method for distribution network considering extreme natural disasters according to claim 7 is characterized in that: The obtaining of the time length between the current date and the management working day is recorded as the maintainable period, and the maintenance sequence of the cables to be maintained in the target area is determined, specifically including: Determine a first ranking coefficient according to the impact range, and determine a second ranking coefficient according to the extreme duration; Obtaining the location of the maintenance team in the target area, and calculating the travel time of the maintenance team to reach each of the cables to be maintained; The maintenance duration of the cable to be maintained is calculated according to the travel time, the first sorting coefficient and the second sorting coefficient, and the maintenance order of the cable to be maintained is determined according to the maintenance duration.

9. A multi-dimensional planning system for distribution networks considering extreme natural disasters, characterized in that: The planning method according to any one of claims 1 to 8 is applied to the planning system, the planning system comprising: A storage module, wherein the data management library is arranged in the storage module; A reading module, the reading module is used to read the weather forecast; A calculation module, the calculation module is used to calculate the adjustment difference and the risk probability; A judgment module is used to judge the maintenance method of the cable to be maintained according to the risk probability.

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