A method and system for formulating a multi-oil source balance plan

Abstract

The present invention discloses a method and system for formulating a multi-oil source balance plan, which belongs to the field of formulating a balance plan for a finished oil pipeline, and includes: decomposing a monthly pipeline plan with hours as the time unit to obtain a daily transportation baseline plan; for transportation plans outside the monthly pipeline plan, dynamically loading the transportation plan onto the corresponding daily transportation baseline plan according to the station field, the finished oil category and the plan execution window corresponding to the transportation plan, so as to adjust the daily transportation baseline plan, and use the adjusted transportation plan as the daily execution plan; according to the daily execution plan, predicting the inventory of various types of finished oil at each station field according to different time scales, and generating corresponding early warning information when detecting an abnormal inventory of any type of finished oil inventory in any station field. The present invention uses the idea of ​​combining baseline plan and adjustment plan to predict and plan the finished oil inventory, which can effectively reduce the risk of pipeline operation.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention belongs to the field of oil source balance plan formulation for finished oil pipelines, and more specifically, relates to a multi-oil source balance plan formulation method and system. Background Art

[0002] my country's refined oil pipeline network has a large volume of transportation, a wide variety of products, and complex resource sources, which makes it difficult to formulate pipeline batch plans. The resource sources of a long-distance refined oil pipeline involve the simultaneous injection of resources from multiple refineries and multiple ports, so the balance between multiple oil sources is particularly important.

[0003] The oil source balance transportation plan is generally divided into monthly plan and daily plan. However, due to the long execution period of the monthly plan, various uncertain factors may affect the execution of the specific plan every day, which may not be completed on time and in quantity. Therefore, in the case of multiple oil sources, it is necessary to ensure the balance of total monthly supply and demand, and to deal with the impact of various uncertain factors through real-time daily transportation plan adjustments, which brings certain challenges to the formulation and implementation of daily transportation plans.

[0004] At present, the existing oil source balance plan formulation methods are mainly devoted to solving the problems of long-distance pipeline batch planning and execution. Multi-oil source balance plans are rarely formulated for long-distance pipelines with multiple oil sources, and how to balance the transportation order and transportation volume between injection points at the resource organization level is not considered, which may lead to reduced pipeline operation efficiency. In addition, the formulation of the finished oil pipeline balance plan needs to fully consider the real-time inventory and empty capacity of each station to prevent the "supply interruption" or "blocking of the warehouse" of oil products, causing adverse consequences. In the traditional oil source balance plan formulation method, the calculation of dynamic inventory is generally calculated manually. Due to the large amount of calculation of dynamic inventory, manual calculation is not only time-consuming and laborious, but also inevitably leads to some errors, which brings certain risks to pipeline operation. Summary of the invention

[0005] In view of the defects of the prior art and the need for improvement, the present invention provides a method and system for formulating a multi-oil source balance plan, the purpose of which is to use the idea of ​​combining baseline planning and adjustment planning to predict and plan the inventory of refined oil products and reduce the risk of pipeline operation.

[0006] To achieve the above object, according to one aspect of the present invention, a method for formulating a multi-oil source balance plan is provided, comprising:

[0007] Steps for generating the daily transportation baseline plan: decompose the monthly pipeline transportation plan into hours to obtain the daily transportation baseline plan; the daily transportation baseline plan determines the transportation sequence of each batch and type of refined oil within 24 hours, the start and end time of pipeline transportation, and the distribution flow rate;

[0008] Daily transportation baseline plan adjustment steps: For transportation plans other than the monthly pipeline plan, dynamically load the transportation plan to the corresponding daily transportation baseline plan according to the station, refined oil category and plan execution window corresponding to the transportation plan, so as to adjust the daily transportation baseline plan and use the adjusted transportation plan as the daily execution plan;

[0009] Early warning steps: According to the daily execution plan, the inventory of various types of refined oil at each station is predicted according to different time scales. When an abnormal inventory of any type of refined oil in any station is detected, a corresponding early warning message is generated.

[0010] Furthermore, in the early warning step, a dynamic inventory update model is used to predict the inventory of various types of refined oil products at each station;

[0011] For a given station and a given category of refined oil, the dynamic inventory update model is:

[0012]

[0013] Where I(t+1) and I(t) represent the inventory of a given type of refined oil at a given station in the next period and the current period respectively; i represents the oil source number, i=1,2,3,...,m, m is the number of oil sources, In i (t) represents the oil intake from the i-th oil source at the current period, Indicates the total oil intake of the current period; j indicates the oil flow direction number, j = 1, 2, 3, ..., n, n indicates the number of oil flow directions, Indicates the total oil output during the period.

[0014] Further, different time scales include hours, days, and weeks.

[0015] Furthermore, transportation plans outside the monthly pipeline transportation plan include railway, road and water transportation plans.

[0016] Furthermore, the method for formulating a multi-oil source balance plan provided by the present invention further includes:

[0017] When abnormal inventory is detected for any type of refined oil in any station, a corresponding adjustment plan shall be formulated.

[0018] According to another aspect of the present invention, a multi-oil source balance plan formulation system is provided, comprising: a daily transportation baseline plan generation module, a daily baseline transportation plan adjustment module and an early warning module;

[0019] The daily transportation baseline plan generation module is used to decompose the monthly pipeline transportation plan into hours to obtain the daily transportation baseline plan. The daily transportation baseline plan determines the transportation sequence of each batch and type of finished oil within 24 hours, the start and end time of pipeline transportation, and the distribution flow rate.

[0020] The daily baseline transportation plan adjustment module dynamically loads the transportation plan to the corresponding daily transportation baseline plan for transportation plans other than the monthly pipeline plan according to the stations, refined oil categories and plan execution windows corresponding to the transportation plan, so as to adjust the daily transportation baseline plan and use the adjusted transportation plan as the daily execution plan;

[0021] The early warning module is used to predict the inventory of various types of refined oil at various stations according to different time scales based on the daily execution plan, and generate corresponding early warning information when an abnormal inventory of any type of refined oil in any station is detected.

[0022] Furthermore, the early warning module uses a dynamic inventory update model to predict the inventory of various types of refined oil at each station;

[0023] For a given station and a given category of refined oil, the dynamic inventory update model is:

[0024]

[0025] Where I(t+1) and I(t) represent the inventory of a given type of refined oil at a given station in the next period and the current period respectively; i represents the oil source number, i=1,2,3,...,m, m is the number of oil sources, In i (t) represents the oil intake from the i-th oil source at the current period, Indicates the total oil intake of the current period; j indicates the oil flow direction number, j = 1, 2, 3, ..., n, n indicates the number of oil flow directions, Indicates the total oil output during the period.

[0026] In general, the above technical solutions conceived by the present invention can achieve the following beneficial effects:

[0027] (1) The present invention uses the idea of ​​combining baseline planning and adjustment planning to decompose the monthly pipeline transportation plan into a daily transportation baseline plan, and uses other transportation plans outside the monthly pipeline transportation plan as adjustment plans, which are loaded onto the corresponding daily transportation baseline plan to play a role in regulating the daily transportation baseline plan. On this basis, the complex multi-oil source network model is decoupled and converted into a forecast for the inventory of a single site and a single oil product, thereby enabling the inventory update of a single site and a single oil product to be completed in real time and dynamically, and inventory anomalies can be discovered as early as possible, and large-scale adjustments to the global plan when inventory anomalies occur can be avoided, effectively reducing the risk of pipeline operation.

[0028] (2) Based on the decoupling of the complex multi-oil source network model, the present invention proposes a dynamic inventory update model for a single site and a single oil product, which can assist management personnel in forecasting finished oil inventory, realize simulation of plan adjustment, provide early warning and make plan adjustments, and effectively reduce the risks of "storage congestion" and "supply interruption" at each station, providing strong support for the supply guarantee of the finished oil market. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0029] Figure 1 A typical refined oil transportation network structure model provided by an embodiment of the present invention;

[0030] Figure 2 A flow chart of a method for formulating a multi-oil source balance plan provided by an embodiment of the present invention;

[0031] Figure 3 A schematic diagram of a daily transportation baseline plan provided by an embodiment of the present invention;

[0032] Figure 4 A trend chart of oil inventory changes in the first station S1 in the daily transportation baseline plan provided by an embodiment of the present invention;

[0033] Figure 5 A graph showing the change trend of 92# gasoline inventory in the first station S1 of a highway plan provided in an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0034] In order to make the purpose, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention more clearly understood, the present invention is further described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and embodiments. It should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are only used to explain the present invention and are not intended to limit the present invention. In addition, the technical features involved in the various embodiments of the present invention described below can be combined with each other as long as they do not conflict with each other.

[0035] In the present invention, the terms "first", "second", etc. (if any) in the present invention and the drawings are used to distinguish similar objects but not necessarily to describe a specific order or sequence.

[0036] In order to predict and plan the finished oil inventory and reduce the risk of pipeline operation, the present invention provides a method and system for formulating a multi-oil source balance plan. The overall idea is to combine the baseline plan with the adjustment plan, decompose the monthly pipeline plan into a daily transportation baseline plan, and use other transportation plans outside the monthly pipeline plan as adjustment plans, load them onto the corresponding daily transportation baseline plan, and play a role in regulating the daily transportation baseline plan. On this basis, the complex multi-oil source network model is decoupled and converted into a prediction for the inventory of a single site and a single oil product, so as to timely discover inventory anomalies and issue early warnings, so that managers can adjust the transportation plan in time and reduce pipeline operation risks. A dynamic inventory update model for a single site and a single oil product is further proposed to assist managers in predicting finished oil inventory, realize simulation and simulation of plan adjustments, and issue early warnings and make plan adjustments.

[0037] The following takes the formulation of a multi-oil source balance plan for finished oil products in the southwest pipeline of Sinopec as an example to further explain the technical solution of the present invention.

[0038] Figure 1 The figure shows a typical network diagram of refined oil transportation, where S1 to S8 represent various stations, including refineries, first stations and ports, and L1 to L4 represent transportation pipelines. The following embodiments are all for Figure 1 The finished oil delivery network shown is implemented. The following is an example.

[0039] Embodiment 1:

[0040] A method for formulating a multi-oil source balance plan, such as Figure 2 As shown, it includes: daily transportation baseline plan generation step, daily transportation baseline plan adjustment step and early warning step;

[0041] The steps for generating a daily transportation baseline plan include:

[0042] The monthly pipeline transportation plan is decomposed into hours as time units to obtain the daily transportation baseline plan; the daily transportation baseline plan determines the transportation sequence of each batch and type of refined oil within 24 hours, the start and end time of pipeline transportation, and the distribution flow rate;

[0043] The monthly pipeline transportation plan determines the monthly transportation sequence of each batch and type of refined oil, the start and end time of each batch and each type of oil product, and the distribution flow rate; this embodiment decomposes the monthly pipeline transportation plan into a daily transportation baseline plan, which is conducive to coping with the influence of various uncertain factors by adjusting the daily transportation baseline plan in real time while ensuring the balance of monthly total supply and demand;

[0044] In this embodiment, the first station S1 is the only outlet for the export of refined oil in the region. It needs to meet all the needs of downstream provincial and municipal companies. The monthly pipeline transportation plan of S1 can be further decomposed into 24-hour time units to obtain the daily transportation baseline plan for each day of the month. Due to the large amount of data, only the daily transportation baseline plan of a certain day of the month is taken as an example. The specific plan table corresponding to the daily transportation baseline plan of the first station S1 on that day is as follows: Figure 3 As shown in the figure, according to the baseline plan for transportation on that day, the 24-hour inventory change trend chart of each oil product at the first station S1 on that day is as follows: Figure 4 As shown;

[0045] The daily transportation baseline plan adjustment steps include:

[0046] For the transportation plans outside the monthly pipeline plan, the transportation plans are dynamically loaded onto the corresponding daily transportation baseline plan according to the stations, refined oil categories and plan execution windows corresponding to the transportation plans, so as to adjust the daily transportation baseline plan and use the adjusted transportation plan as the daily execution plan;

[0047] In addition to the monthly pipeline transportation plan, other transportation plans include railway, highway and water transportation plans. In this embodiment, a highway plan is specifically included. The planned execution period of the highway plan starts at 13:00 on the same day. The total ground payment flow is 6500t and the ground payment flow is 650t / h. Based on the corresponding daily transportation baseline plan, in the first station S1, an oil delivery item for 92# gasoline will be added at 14:00, namely, ground payment. Figure 5 As shown;

[0048] Early warning steps include:

[0049] According to the daily execution plan, the inventory of various types of refined oil at each station is predicted according to different time scales, such as hours, days, weeks, etc. When it is detected that the inventory of any type of refined oil at any station is not within the safety inventory range, the corresponding warning information is generated;

[0050] In this embodiment, a dynamic inventory update model is specifically used to predict the inventory of various types of refined oil products at each station;

[0051] For the first station S1, 92# gasoline, the dynamic inventory update model is:

[0052]

[0053] Among them, I S1 (t+1) and I S2 (t) represents the inventory of 92# gasoline in the first station S1 in the next period and the current period respectively; i represents the oil source number, i = 1, 2, 3, ..., m, m is the number of oil sources, In i (t) represents the oil intake from the i-th oil source at the current period, Indicates the total oil intake during the period; j indicates the oil flow direction number, j = 1, 2, 3, ..., n, n indicates the number of oil flow directions, Indicates the total oil output during the period;

[0054] like Figure 5 As shown, without adjustment, at the initial time t = 6, assuming that the oil inlet and outlet rates of each oil source remain uniform, Figure 5 It can be seen that from t = 6, S2 oil intake lasted for 11 hours and L1 oil output lasted for 9 hours. By iterating the above dynamic inventory update model, the inventory I at t = 23 can be calculated. s1 (t+17), the specific iteration process is as follows:

[0055]

[0056] In this embodiment, since the highway plan is introduced to adjust the daily transportation baseline plan, the execution period of the highway plan starts at 13:00 on the same day, the total ground payment flow is 6500t, the ground payment flow is 650t / h, and it lasts for 10 hours. From t=13, the number of oil flow directions becomes 2; under the adjustment of the highway plan, from t=6, S2 oil intake lasts for 11 hours, L1 outflow lasts for 9 hours, and the highway plan starts outflow from t=13 and lasts for 10 hours. By iterating the above dynamic inventory update model, the inventory I at t=23 can be calculated. s1 (t+17), the specific iteration process is as follows:

[0057]

[0058]

[0059] This embodiment uses the idea of ​​combining baseline planning and adjustment planning, and decouples the complex multi-oil source network model into a forecast for the inventory of a single site and a single oil product, which can predict and analyze the inventory of each site and each oil product in real time and dynamically. Based on the above prediction and analysis, the 24-hour inventory change trend chart of 92# gasoline at the first station S1 on this day is as follows: Figure 5 As shown, according to Figure 5 The forecast analysis results shown in the figure show that the 92# gasoline inventory will drop below the safety inventory at 23:00. Figure 5 As shown by the dotted line in , at this time, the corresponding warning information will be generated.

[0060] In order to deal with the situation where the station inventory cannot guarantee the continuous operation of the pipeline or the inventory anomaly may block the warehouse, this embodiment will not only generate corresponding warning information when these inventory anomalies are detected, but also formulate corresponding adjustment plans. For example, it is necessary to arrange the payment demand in advance or supplement other oil sources to avoid the situation where the inventory is too low and the normal pipeline transportation is affected, so as to further reduce the risk of pipeline operation.

[0061] Embodiment 2:

[0062] A multi-oil source balance plan formulation system, comprising: a daily transportation baseline plan generation module, a daily baseline transportation plan adjustment module and an early warning module;

[0063] The daily transportation baseline plan generation module is used to decompose the monthly pipeline transportation plan into hours to obtain the daily transportation baseline plan. The daily transportation baseline plan determines the transportation sequence of each batch and type of finished oil within 24 hours, the start and end time of pipeline transportation, and the distribution flow rate.

[0064] The daily baseline transportation plan adjustment module dynamically loads the transportation plan to the corresponding daily transportation baseline plan for transportation plans other than the monthly pipeline plan according to the stations, refined oil categories and plan execution windows corresponding to the transportation plan, so as to adjust the daily transportation baseline plan and use the adjusted transportation plan as the daily execution plan;

[0065] The early warning module is used to predict the inventory of various types of refined oil at various stations according to different time scales based on the daily execution plan, and generate corresponding early warning information when abnormal inventory of any type of refined oil in any station is detected;

[0066] In this embodiment, the specific implementation of each module can refer to the description in the above method embodiment, which will not be repeated here.

[0067] It will be easily understood by those skilled in the art that the above description is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention and is not intended to limit the present invention. Any modifications, equivalent substitutions and improvements made within the spirit and principles of the present invention should be included in the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for formulating a multi-oil source balance plan, characterized in that: include: Steps for generating the daily transportation baseline plan: decompose the monthly pipeline transportation plan into hours as the time unit to obtain the daily transportation baseline plan; The daily transportation baseline plan determines the transportation sequence, start and end time of pipeline transportation and distribution flow rate of each batch and type of refined oil within 24 hours every day; Daily transportation baseline plan adjustment step: for transportation plans other than the monthly pipeline transportation plan, dynamically load the transportation plans onto the corresponding daily transportation baseline plans according to the stations, refined oil categories and plan execution windows corresponding to the transportation plans, so as to adjust the daily transportation baseline plans, and use the adjusted transportation plans as daily execution plans; Early warning step: according to the daily execution plan, the inventory of various types of refined oil in various stations is predicted according to different time scales. When an abnormal inventory of any type of refined oil in any station is detected, corresponding early warning information is generated, and a corresponding adjustment plan is formulated to deal with the abnormal inventory of the station inventory that cannot guarantee the continuous operation of pipeline transportation or may block the storage; the different time scales include hours, days and weeks; In the early warning step, a dynamic inventory update model is used to predict the inventory of various types of refined oil products at each station; For a given station and a given category of refined oil, the dynamic inventory update model is: Wherein, I(t+1) and I(t) represent the inventory of the given type of refined oil at the given station in the next period and the current period respectively; i represents the oil source number, i=1,2,3,...,m, m is the number of oil sources, In i (t) represents the oil intake from the i-th oil source at the current period, Indicates the total oil intake of the current period; j indicates the oil flow direction number, j = 1, 2, 3, ..., n, n indicates the number of oil flow directions, Indicates the total oil output during the period.

2. The method for formulating a multi-oil source balance plan according to claim 1, characterized in that: The transportation plans outside the monthly pipeline transportation plan include railway, highway and water transportation plans.

3. A multi-oil source balance plan formulation system, characterized in that: include: Daily transportation baseline plan generation module, daily baseline transportation plan adjustment module and early warning module; The daily transportation baseline plan generation module is used to decompose the monthly pipeline transportation plan by hourly time units to obtain a daily transportation baseline plan; the daily transportation baseline plan determines the transportation sequence of each batch and type of refined oil within 24 hours every day, the start and end time of pipeline transportation, and the distribution flow rate; The daily baseline transportation plan adjustment module dynamically loads the transportation plan to the corresponding daily transportation baseline plan for the transportation plan outside the monthly pipeline transportation plan according to the station, refined oil category and plan execution window corresponding to the transportation plan, so as to adjust the daily transportation baseline plan and use the adjusted transportation plan as the daily execution plan; The early warning module is used to predict the inventory of various types of refined oil at various stations according to different time scales based on the daily execution plan, and when an inventory abnormality of any type of refined oil in any station is detected, generate corresponding early warning information and formulate corresponding adjustment plans to deal with the inventory abnormality of the station inventory that cannot guarantee the continuous operation of pipeline transportation or may block the storage; the different time scales include hours, days and weeks; The early warning module uses a dynamic inventory update model to predict the inventory of various types of refined oil at each station; For a given station and a given category of refined oil, the dynamic inventory update model is: Wherein, I(t+1) and I(t) represent the inventory of the given type of refined oil at the given station in the next period and the current period respectively; i represents the oil source number, i=1,2,3,...,m, m is the number of oil sources, In i (t) represents the oil intake from the i-th oil source at the current period, Indicates the total oil intake of the current period; j indicates the oil flow direction number, j = 1, 2, 3, ..., n, n indicates the number of oil flow directions, Indicates the total oil output during the period.

Images