A method for quantitative identification and control of regional natural and social water cycle coupling patterns

Abstract

The present invention discloses a method for quantitative identification and control of regional natural and social water cycle coupling patterns, including the following steps: step 1, identifying the constraints of various elements of the natural water cycle on the social water cycle; step 2, calculating the dominant size of water resource utilization in various departments of the social water cycle; step 3, constructing a constraint-dominant natural and social water cycle coupling matrix; step 4, determining differentiated control paths for different patterns. The method described in the present invention has strong practicality and operability, provides technical support for the rational development and utilization of water resources, protection of the water ecological environment, and prevention and control of water and drought disasters, is conducive to improving the level of water resources management in the basin and region, provides guidance for basin and regional water resources, water environment-related planning and water conservancy project construction, and promotes the coordinated development of water and economic society.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention belongs to the field of hydrology and water resources technology, and in particular relates to a method for quantitatively identifying and controlling a regional natural and social water cycle coupling pattern. Background Art

[0002] The mutual feedback coupling system between the natural water cycle with the "surface-underground-soil-atmosphere" process as the main body and the social water cycle with the "water intake-water use-water consumption-drainage" process as the main body is particularly complex. With the increase in the social water cycle flux caused by strong human activities under climate change conditions, the natural-social water cycle has gradually become unbalanced, and problems such as water resource shortage, water environment pollution, water ecological disturbance, and frequent floods and droughts have become prominent. The various elements of the natural water cycle will constrain the "water intake-water use-water consumption-drainage" process of the social water cycle, which has become the dominant factor affecting the high-quality and sustainable development of the regional or river basin economy and society, and has a far-reaching impact on food security and energy security.

[0003] At present, based on the principle of natural-social dual water cycle, the research on the coupling mechanism, simulation and regulation of natural-social water cycle has become a hot topic. On the one hand, these studies usually focus on single or dual factors such as water resources, water resources, water ecology, and water security, and the comprehensive analysis of multiple factors needs to be improved. On the other hand, due to the particularly complex factors, links and processes of natural-social water cycle, the quantitative identification of its coupling mode is relatively weak, and it is difficult to provide technical support for differentiated management and control of different regions in the basin. Therefore, how to quantitatively identify and control the regional natural and social water cycle coupling mode is a technical problem that needs to be solved urgently. Summary of the invention

[0004] The purpose of the present invention is to provide a method for quantitatively identifying and controlling the coupling pattern of regional natural and social water cycles to solve the above-mentioned technical problems.

[0005] To achieve the above object, the present invention provides the following technical solutions:

[0006] The present invention discloses a method for quantitatively identifying and controlling a regional natural and social water cycle coupling pattern, the method comprising the following steps:

[0007] Step 1, identifying the constraints of various elements of the natural water cycle on the social water cycle: identifying and calculating the constraints of various elements of the natural water cycle on the social water cycle, wherein the various elements of the natural water cycle include water resource elements of the natural water cycle, water environment elements of the natural water cycle, water ecological elements of the natural water cycle, and water safety elements of the natural water cycle; specifically including the following steps:

[0008] Step 11: Identify the constraints of water resource elements of the natural water cycle on the social water cycle:

[0009] Determine different regional objects in the target watershed, i.e., calculation units, calculate water resource constraint indexes of different calculation units, and determine water resource strong constraint units;

[0010] The calculation formula of the water resource constraint index is:

[0011]

[0012] L t,j =Min(R t,j ,W t,j )

[0013] W t,j =Ws t,j +Wv t,j +Wf t,j +Wd t,j

[0014]

[0015] In the formula, C t,j is the water resource constraint index of unit j in year t, %; U t,j is the water consumption of the jth unit in year t, m 3 ; L t,j is the water consumption limit of the jth unit in year t, m 3 ; R t,j is the total water consumption control red line of the jth unit in the tth year, m 3 ; W t,j is the available water volume of the jth unit in year t, m 3 ; Ws t,j is the surface water availability of unit j in year t, m 3 ;Wv t,j is the groundwater availability in unit j in year t, m 3 ;Wf t,j is the available water volume of non-conventional water sources in unit j in year t, m 3 ;Wd t,j is the available amount of transit water and external water for the jth unit in year t, m 3 ; Min() is the minimum value function; Tl t,j,m is the natural runoff in the mth month of the jth unit in the tth year, m 3 , m=1,2…M, M is the total number of months, i.e. 12; Ea t,j,m,p is the river ecological flow index requirement for the pth section of the jth unit in the mth month of the tth year, m 3 ; p = 1, 2...P, P is the number of river ecological flow control sections; Fl t,j,m′is the unusable amount of river flood in the jth unit in the mth month of the tth year, m 3 ; n1 and n2 are the start and end months of the flood season respectively;

[0016] Step 12: Identify the constraints of natural water cycle water environment factors on social water cycle:

[0017] Calculate the water environment constraint index of different calculation units and determine the water environment strong constraint unit;

[0018] The calculation formula of the water environment constraint index is:

[0019]

[0020] In the formula, Q t,j is the water environment constraint index of unit j in year t, %; Qr t,j 、Ql t,j and Qd t,j Nr are the water quality indexes of rivers, lakes and groundwater in the jth unit in the tth year; t,j Nl is the number of river sections in unit j in year t; t,j and Nd t,j is the number of lakes, reservoirs and groundwater points in the j-th unit city in the t-th year; Cr t,j,i , Cl t,j,i 、Cd t,j,i are the monitoring values ​​of the i-th indicator in the j-th unit in the t-th year for rivers, lakes and groundwater, mg / l; RC i,z and RC i,z+1 Cr t,j,i The two classification values ​​in the river water quality evaluation standard, namely the standard concentration of grade z and grade z+1, mg / l; LC i,z and LC i,z+1 Cl t,j,i Standard concentrations of two grades in the lake water quality evaluation standard, mg / l; DC i,z and DC i,z+1 Cd t,j,i Standard concentrations of two grades in the groundwater quality assessment standard, mg / l; RI i,z , LI i,z and DI i,z are the i-th index and z-th standard water quality index of rivers, lakes and groundwater respectively; i is the pollutant index, i=1,2…Nr t,j (Nl t,j or Nd t,j );

[0021] Step 13: Identify the constraints of the water ecological elements of the natural water cycle on the social water cycle:

[0022] Calculate the water ecological constraint index of different calculation units and determine the water ecological strong constraint units;

[0023] The calculation formula of the water ecological constraint index is:

[0024] E t,j =Ks t,j ×Es t,j ×Ys+Kv t,j ×Ev t,j ×Y

[0025]

[0026] Ks t,j +Kv t,j =1

[0027] In the formula, E t,j is the water ecological constraint index of the jth unit in the tth year, %; Es t,j and Ev t,j Ks are the constraint indexes of river ecology and groundwater ecology respectively; t,j and Kv t,j are the weight coefficients of river ecology and groundwater ecology, respectively, with a value range of 0-1; Ku t,j is the drainage coefficient of the jth unit in the tth year, dimensionless; G j is the area of ​​groundwater overexploitation in the jth unit, m 2 ; A j is the total area of ​​the jth unit, m 2 ; m is the month, m = 1, 2…M, M is the total number of months, i.e. 12; Ys and Yv are the selection coefficients of surface water ecology and groundwater ecology, respectively, which are 1 if they are considered and 0 if they are not considered; Ea t,j,m is the ecological flow target requirement for the jth unit in the mth month of the tth year;

[0028] Step 14: Identify the constraints of natural water cycle water security factors on social water cycle:

[0029] Calculate the water security constraint index of different calculation units and determine the water security strong constraint unit;

[0030] The calculation formula of the water safety constraint index is:

[0031]

[0032] Among them, S t,j is the water security constraint index of the jth unit in the tth year, %; Sa t,j is the flood- and drought-affected area of ​​the jth unit in the tth year, m 2 ; A j is the total area of ​​the jth unit, m2 ;

[0033] Step 2: Calculate the dominance of water resource utilization in each department of the social water cycle: Calculate the dominance of water resource utilization in different departments of the social water cycle in each calculation unit. The water used in the social water cycle includes agricultural water, industrial water, domestic water, and ecological water. The calculation formula is:

[0034]

[0035] Z t,j k =Max(Za t,j,k )

[0036] Among them, Z t,j k is the dominance index of the jth unit in the tth year, dimensionless; Za t,j,k is the water use dominance index of the kth category in the jth unit in the tth year, dimensionless; U t,j,k is the water consumption of the kth category of the jth unit in the basin in the tth year, m 3 ; V t,k is the total amount of water used in the kth category in the basin in the tth year, m 3 ; V t is the total water consumption of the basin in year t, m 3 ; k is the type of water use, k = 1, 2, ... K, K = 4, that is, k = 1 is agricultural water use (A), k = 2 is industrial water use (B), k = 3 is domestic water use (C), k = 4 is ecological water use (D); Max() is the maximum value function;

[0037] Step 3, construct the constraint-dominant natural and social water cycle coupling matrix: for different social water cycle water use dominant areas, according to the different strong constraint factors, they are divided into different constraint types, the strong constraint factors include strong constraints on water resources, strong constraints on water environment, strong constraints on water ecology and strong constraints on water security, and the constraint types include no constraints, single constraints, double constraints, triple constraints and full constraints; for the j-th unit in the t-th year of the basin, identify the strong constraint factors and dominant indexes it faces, determine the combination code, i.e., the coupling mode, and identify all the calculation units in the basin one by one, and construct the constraint-dominant natural and social water cycle coupling matrix of the basin in the t-th year;

[0038] Step 4: Determine differentiated control paths for different modes: According to the constructed constraint-dominant natural and social water cycle coupling matrix, different control paths are selected for different coupling modes;

[0039] For the jth unit in the tth year of the basin, if the calculation unit is of the unconstrained type, the control path is: do not implement control for the time being, and make predictions and interventions based on the annual development trend of the calculation unit;

[0040] If the computing unit is of single constraint type, the control path is:

[0041] 1) If it is a water resource constraint, implement water use control, promote industrial structure optimization and adjustment, promote water-saving technologies, and strengthen water use metering control;

[0042] 2) If it is a water environment constraint, implement pollution emission control, promote the optimization and adjustment of industrial structure, strengthen the use of clean production technology, and strengthen the treatment of urban and rural domestic sewage;

[0043] 3) If it is a water ecological constraint, water consumption control will be implemented, water consumption control of surface water and groundwater utilization will be strengthened, and ecological flow release control of water conservancy projects will be carried out;

[0044] 4) If it is a water security constraint, implement risk control, build flood control, drainage and drought relief projects, implement early warning and emergency dispatch, and improve resilience to disasters;

[0045] If the calculation unit belongs to the double-constraint, triple-constraint or full-constraint type, the management and control path is: implement combined control of water consumption and risk, and implement multi-factor-whole-process coordinated control according to the different factor constraints and dominant combinations of the unit.

[0046] Furthermore, there are two ways to determine the water resource strong constraint unit in step 11: one is to use the natural break point classification method to identify the strong constraint unit, that is, set the number of categories and select the category with the largest value as the strong constraint unit; the other is to use the proportion constraint method, that is, for all calculation units, arrange them in order from large to small according to their water resource constraint index, and extract the proportion as the strong constraint unit according to management requirements. The calculation formula is:

[0047]

[0048] Where J is the total number of all units; the rank() function gives the sequence number from small to large; Cx is the coefficient of the proportion of the number of water resources management units in the whole basin, which is set according to the requirements of basin management and the value is between 0 and 1; RC t,j It represents the constraint of the j-th unit water resources on the social water cycle in the t-th year, and 1 indicates a strong constraint.

[0049] Furthermore, there are two ways to determine the water environment strong constraint unit in step 12: one is to use the natural break point classification method to identify the strong constraint unit, that is, set the number of categories and select the category with the largest value as the strong constraint unit; the other is to use the proportion constraint method, that is, arrange the calculation units in order from large to small according to the water environment constraint index, and extract the proportion as the strong constraint unit according to the management requirements. The calculation formula is:

[0050]

[0051] In the formula, Qx is the coefficient of the proportion of the number of water environment management units in the whole basin, which is set according to the requirements of basin management and the value is between 0 and 1; RQ t,j It represents the constraint of the water environment of the j-th unit in the t-th year on the social water cycle. 1 indicates a strong constraint.

[0052] Furthermore, there are two ways to determine the water ecological strong constraint unit in step 13: one is to use the natural break point classification method to identify the strong constraint unit, that is, set the number of categories and select the category with the largest value as the strong constraint unit; the other is to use the proportion constraint method, that is, arrange the water ecological constraint index of the calculation unit in descending order, and extract the proportion as the strong constraint unit according to the management requirements. The calculation formula is:

[0053]

[0054] Where Ex is the coefficient of the proportion of the number of water ecological management units in the whole watershed, which is set according to the requirements of watershed management and the value is between 0 and 1; RE t,j It represents the constraint of the water ecology of the j-th unit on the social water cycle in the t-th year, and 1 indicates a strong constraint.

[0055] Furthermore, there are two ways to determine the water safety strong constraint unit in step 14: one is to use the natural break point classification method to identify the strong constraint unit, that is, set the number of categories and select the category with the largest value as the strong constraint unit; the other is to use the proportion constraint method, that is, arrange the water safety constraint index of the calculation unit from large to small, and extract the proportion as the strong constraint unit according to the management requirements. The calculation formula is:

[0056]

[0057] Where Sx is the weight coefficient of the number of water safety management units in the whole basin, which is set according to the requirements of basin management and the value is between 0 and 1; RS t,j It represents the constraint of water security of unit j in year t on social water cycle, and 1 indicates strong constraint.

[0058] The beneficial effects of the present invention are as follows: the method described in the present invention is based on the unique perspective of the "natural-social" water cycle of the basin, and with the help of distributed water cycle simulation, statistical analysis and pattern recognition and other technical means, it quantitatively identifies the multi-factor constraint size of the natural water cycle and the dominant size of water use by various departments in the social water cycle, constructs a natural-social water cycle coupling matrix, and gives differentiated management and control paths for different modes. The method described in the present invention has strong practicality and operability, and provides technical support for the rational development and utilization of water resources, protection of the water ecological environment, and prevention and control of water and drought disasters. It is conducive to improving the level of water resources management in the basin and region, providing guidance for basin and regional water resources, water environment-related planning and water conservancy project construction, and promoting the coordinated development of water and economic society.

[0059] The present invention will be further described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and specific implementation methods. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0060] Figure 1 is a flow chart of the method of the present invention;

[0061] Figure 2 It is a principle structure diagram of the method described in the present invention;

[0062] Figure 3 This is a spatial distribution map of the constraints of various elements of the natural water cycle in the basin of Example 1;

[0063] Figure 4 This is a spatial distribution map of the dominance of water use by various sectors in the social water cycle of Example 1;

[0064] Figure 5 The spatial distribution diagram of the coupling mode of natural and social water cycles in Example 1;

[0065] Figure 6 This is a coding diagram of the natural and social water cycle coupling model of Example 1. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0066] The present invention discloses a method for quantitatively identifying and controlling the coupling mode of regional natural and social water cycles, such as Figure 1 , Figure 2 As shown, the method comprises the following steps:

[0067] Step 1: Identify the constraints of various elements of the natural water cycle on the social water cycle.

[0068] The constraints of various elements of the natural water cycle on the social water cycle are identified and calculated, and the various elements of the natural water cycle include water resource elements of the natural water cycle, water environment elements of the natural water cycle, water ecology elements of the natural water cycle, and water safety elements of the natural water cycle.

[0069] Step 11: Identify the extent to which the water resource elements of the natural water cycle constrain the social water cycle.

[0070] Determine different regional objects in the target basin, namely, calculation units (such as provinces, cities or counties, etc.), and calculate the water resource constraint index of different calculation units. The water resource constraint index of different calculation units is expressed by the water use approximation rate, that is, the ratio of the water use of the jth unit in the tth year to the water limit. The calculation of the water use limit takes into account both the overall requirements of the total water use control red line (one of the most stringent water resources management red lines) and the available potential of different water sources (such as surface water, groundwater, unconventional water sources, transit water and external water). The larger the value of the water resource constraint index, the closer the water use of the calculation unit is to the water use limit, the more the economic and social development activities of taking-using-consumption-discharge are increasingly subject to resource constraints, and the greater the constraint of water resources on the social water cycle.

[0071] The calculation formula of water resource constraint index is:

[0072]

[0073] L t,j =Min(R t,j ,W t,j )

[0074] W t,j =Ws t,j +Wv t,j +Wf t,j +Wd t,j

[0075]

[0076] In the formula, C t,j is the water resource constraint index of unit j in year t, %; U t,j is the water consumption of the jth unit in year t, m 3 ; L t,j is the water consumption limit of the jth unit in year t, m 3 ; R t,j is the total water consumption control red line of the jth unit in the tth year, m 3 ; W t,j is the available water volume of the jth unit in year t, m 3 ; Ws t,j is the surface water availability of unit j in year t, m 3 ;Wv t,j is the groundwater availability in unit j in year t, m 3 ;Wf t,j is the available water volume of non-conventional water sources in unit j in year t, m 3 ;Wdt,j is the available amount of transit water and external water for the jth unit in year t, m 3 ; Min() is the minimum value function; Tl t,j,m is the natural runoff in the mth month of the jth unit in the tth year, m 3 , m = 1, 2…M, M is the total number of months, i.e. 12; when monitoring data is unavailable, a distributed water cycle model (such as the WEP model, the VIC model, etc.) can be used to restore the natural runoff series; Ea t,j,m,p is the river ecological flow index requirement for the pth section of the jth unit in the mth month of the tth year, m 3 ; p = 1, 2...P, P is the number of river ecological flow control sections; Fl t,j,m′ is the unusable amount of river flood in the jth unit in the mth month of the tth year, m 3 ; n1 and n2 are the starting and ending months of the flood season respectively.

[0077] According to the requirements of water resources management in different river basins and regions, one of the following two methods is selected to determine the water resources strong constraint unit: one is to use clustering thinking and adopt the natural break point classification method (Natural Breaks) to identify the strong constraint unit, that is, set the number of categories and select the category with the largest value as the strong constraint unit; the other is to use the proportion constraint method, that is, for all calculation units, arrange them in order from large to small according to their water resources constraint index, and extract the proportion (Cx) as the strong constraint unit according to the management requirements. The calculation formula is:

[0078]

[0079] Where J is the total number of all units; the rank() function gives the sequence number from small to large; Cx is the coefficient of the proportion of the number of water resources management units in the whole basin, which is set according to the requirements of basin management and is usually between 0 and 1; RC t,j It represents the constraint of the j-th unit water resource element in the t-th year on the social water cycle. If it is equal to 1, it means strong constraint.

[0080] Step 12: Identify the extent to which the water environment elements of the natural water cycle constrain the social water cycle.

[0081] The water environment constraints of different calculation units are represented by the water environment constraint index. The larger the index value, the worse the water environment quality of the unit, and the greater the constraint of water environment factors on the social water cycle.

[0082] The calculation formula of water environment constraint index is:

[0083]

[0084] In the formula, Qt,j is the water environment constraint index of unit j in year t, %; Qr t,j 、Ql t,j and Qd t,j Nr are the water quality indexes of rivers, lakes and groundwater in the jth unit in the tth year; t,j Nl is the number of river sections in unit j in year t; t,j and Nd t,j is the number of lakes, reservoirs and groundwater points in the j-th unit city in the t-th year; Cr t,j,i , Cl t,j,i 、Cd t,j,i are the monitoring values ​​of the i-th indicator in the j-th unit in the t-th year for rivers, lakes and groundwater, mg / l; RC i,z and RC i,z+1 Cr t,j,i The two classification values ​​in the river water quality evaluation standard, namely the standard concentration of grade z and grade z+1, mg / l; LC i,z and LC i,z+1 Cl t,j,i Standard concentrations of two grades in the lake water quality evaluation standard, mg / l; DC i,z and DC i,z+1 Cd t,j,i Standard concentrations of two grades in the groundwater quality assessment standard, mg / l; RI i,z , LI i,z and DI i,z are the i-th index and z-th standard water quality index of rivers, lakes and groundwater respectively; i is the pollutant index (such as COD, ammonia nitrogen, total phosphorus, etc.), that is, i = 1, 2…Nr t,j (Nl t,j or Nd t,j ).

[0085] Similarly, according to the requirements of water resources protection and water environment management in different river basins and regions, one of the following two methods is selected to determine the water environment strong constraint unit: one is to use the natural break point classification method to identify the strong constraint unit, that is, set the number of classifications and select the category with the largest value as the strong constraint unit; the other is to use the proportion constraint method, that is, arrange the calculation units in order from large to small according to the water environment constraint index, and extract the proportion (Qx) as the strong constraint unit according to the management requirements. The calculation formula is:

[0086]

[0087] Where, Qx is the coefficient of the proportion of the number of water environment management units in the whole basin, which is set according to the requirements of basin management and usually has a value between 0 and 1; RQ t,jIt represents the constraint of the water environment element of the j-th unit in the t-th year on the social water cycle. If it is equal to 1, it means strong constraint.

[0088] Step 13: Identify the extent to which the water ecological elements of the natural water cycle constrain the social water cycle.

[0089] The water ecological constraints of different calculation units are characterized by the water ecological constraint index, that is, the key river ecological flow dissatisfaction rate and (or) the proportion of groundwater overexploitation area. For the key river ecological flow dissatisfaction rate index, each region selects rivers with larger basin areas according to its own conditions. Usually, the data should be greater than 100km 2 . When there are many rivers whose basin area meets the requirements, only the 10 rivers with the largest area are selected. The greater the ecological flow dissatisfaction rate of key rivers, the less water left for river ecology, and the greater the constraint of river water ecosystem protection on social water cycle. The proportion of groundwater over-exploitation area is equal to the proportion of groundwater over-exploitation area to total area. This indicator is more important in groundwater over-exploitation areas in the northern region. The larger the indicator, the greater the constraint of groundwater ecology on social water cycle.

[0090] The calculation formula of water ecological constraint index is:

[0091] E t,j =Ks t,j ×Ks t,j ×Ys+Kv t,j ×Ev t,j ×Y

[0092]

[0093] Ks t,j +Kv t,j =1

[0094] In the formula, E t,j is the water ecological constraint index of the jth unit in the tth year, %; Es t,j and Ev t,j Ks are the constraint indexes of river ecology and groundwater ecology respectively; t,i and Kv t,j are the weight coefficients of river ecology and groundwater ecology, respectively, with a value range of 0-1; Ku t,j is the drainage coefficient of the jth unit in the tth year, dimensionless; G j is the area of ​​groundwater overexploitation in the jth unit, m 2 ; A j is the total area of ​​the jth unit, m 2; m is the month, m = 1, 2…M, M is the total number of months, i.e. 12; Ys and Yv are the selection coefficients of surface water ecology and groundwater ecology, respectively, which are 1 if they are considered and 0 if they are not considered; Ea t,j,m It is the ecological flow target requirement for month m of unit j in year t.

[0095] Similarly, according to the requirements of water ecological protection and management in different river basins and regions, one of the following two methods is selected to determine the water ecological strong constraint unit: one is to use the natural break point classification method to identify the strong constraint unit, that is, set the number of categories and select the category with the largest value as the strong constraint unit; the other is to use the proportion constraint method, that is, arrange the calculation units in order from large to small according to the water ecological constraint index, and extract the proportion (Ex) as the strong constraint unit according to the management requirements. The calculation formula is:

[0096]

[0097] Where Ex is the coefficient of the proportion of the number of water ecological management units in the whole watershed, which is set according to the requirements of watershed management and usually has a value between 0 and 1; RE t,j It represents the constraint of the water ecological element of the j-th unit in the t-th year on the social water cycle. If it is equal to 1, it means strong constraint.

[0098] Step 14: Identify the extent to which the water security factors of the natural water cycle constrain the social water cycle.

[0099] The water security constraints of different calculation units are represented by the water security constraint index, that is, the proportion of flood and drought disaster-affected areas. The larger the value of this index, the greater the constraint of water security on the social water cycle.

[0100] The calculation formula of water security constraint index is:

[0101]

[0102] Among them, S t,j is the water security constraint index of the jth unit in the tth year, %; Sa t,j is the flood- and drought-affected area of ​​the jth unit in the tth year, m 2 ; A j is the total area of ​​the jth unit, m 2 ;

[0103] Similarly, according to the requirements of flood control, drainage and drought resistance management in different river basins and regions, one of the following two methods is selected to determine the water security strong constraint unit: one is to use the natural break point classification method to identify the strong constraint unit, that is, set the number of classifications and select the category with the largest value as the strong constraint unit; the other is to use the proportion constraint method, that is, arrange the calculation units in order from large to small according to the water security constraint index, and extract the proportion (Sx) as the strong constraint unit according to the management requirements. The calculation formula is:

[0104]

[0105] Where Sx is the coefficient of the proportion of water safety management units in the whole basin, which is set according to the requirements of basin management objectives and is usually between 0 and 1; RS t,j It represents the constraint of the water security factor of the jth unit on the social water cycle in the tth year. If it is equal to 1, it means strong constraint.

[0106] Step 2: Calculate the dominant role of water resources utilization in each sector of the social water cycle.

[0107] The water use in the social water cycle is mainly divided into four categories, including agricultural water use, industrial water use, domestic water use, and ecological water use. The dominant calculation of water resource utilization in different departments of the social water cycle in each calculation unit is mainly based on the location entropy theory and has been improved to reflect the agglomeration characteristics of water use in different departments. The department (k) with the largest index in a specific calculation unit indicates that the higher the agglomeration level of water use in this department, the relative advantage it has in the basin and the greater the dominance of water use. The specific calculation formula is as follows:

[0108]

[0109] Z t,j k =Max(Za t,j,k )

[0110] Among them, Z t,j k is the dominance index of the jth unit in the tth year, dimensionless; Za t,j,k is the water use dominance index of the kth category in the jth unit in the tth year, dimensionless; U t,j,k is the water consumption of the kth category of the jth unit in the basin in the tth year, m 3 ; V t,k is the total amount of water used in the kth category in the basin in the tth year, m 3 ; V t is the total water consumption of the basin in year t, m 3; k is the type of water use, k=1,2,…K, K=4, that is, k=1 is agricultural water use (A), k=2 is industrial water use (B), k=3 is domestic water use (C), k=4 is ecological water use (D); Max() is the maximum value function.

[0111] Step 3: Construct the constraint-dominant natural and social water cycle coupling matrix.

[0112] Based on the constraint index and dominance index calculated in step 1 and step 2, the constraint-dominance natural and social water cycle coupling matrix (I-IV) is constructed, as shown in Tables 1-4. For the agricultural water-dominant area, according to the different strong constraint factors, it can be divided into 16 types, namely, no constraint type (0000A), single constraint type (1000A, 0100A, 0010A and 0001A), double constraint type (1100A, 1010A, 1001A, 0110A, 0101A, 0011A), triple constraint type (1110A, 1101A, 0111A and 1011A) and full constraint type (1111A). Similarly, there are 16 types for industrial water-dominant area, domestic water-dominant area and ecological water-dominant area respectively. For a specific area, if the water-dominance index (Z t,j k ) has multiple maximum values, and a combination of constraints and dominant features of multiple factors can be performed, such as the area is dominated by agricultural and industrial water use (1000A-B) constrained by water resources and the area dominated by industrial and domestic water use (0110B-C) constrained by water environment and water ecology. For the jth unit in the tth year of a specific basin, the strong constraint factors (i.e., RC t,j , RQ t,j , R.E. t,j and RS t,j is equal to 1) and the dominance index (Z t,j k ), determine the combination code, i.e., the coupling mode, and identify all the calculation units of the basin one by one, and construct the constraint-dominant natural and social water cycle coupling matrix of the basin in year t. With the dynamic evolution of the natural water cycle and social water cycle of different calculation units in different years, the constraint-dominant natural and social water cycle coupling matrix of the basin will also change dynamically.

[0113] Table 1 Constraint-dominant natural and social water cycle coupling matrix I (dominated by agricultural water use)

[0114]

[0115]

[0116] Table 2 Constraints-dominant natural and social water cycle coupling matrix II (dominated by industrial water use)

[0117]

[0118] Table 3 Constraints-dominant natural and social water cycle coupling matrix III (domestic water use dominated)

[0119]

[0120] Table 4 Constraint-dominant natural and social water cycle coupling matrix IV (ecological water use dominated)

[0121]

[0122] Step 4: Determine differentiated management and control paths for different models.

[0123] According to the constructed natural and social water cycle coupling matrix, different control paths are selected for different coupling modes. The differentiated control paths under different modes are shown in Table 5.

[0124] For the jth unit in the tth year of the basin, there are three different control paths:

[0125] Control Path 1: This unit is of the unconstrained type (0000A, 0000B, 0000C, 0000D), and no control is required. However, relevant predictions and interventions can be made based on the unit's development trend year by year (such as t-2 years, t-1 years).

[0126] Control path 2: This unit is subject to a single factor constraint, that is, it belongs to the single constraint type, and is divided into four cases according to different constraint factors:

[0127] First, for water resource constraints (1000A, 1000B, 1000C, 1000D), water use control should be implemented, industrial structure optimization and adjustment should be promoted, water-saving technologies should be promoted, and water use metering control should be strengthened;

[0128] The second is water environment constraints (0100A, 0100B, 0100C, 0100D), which should implement pollution emission control, promote the optimization and adjustment of industrial structure, strengthen the use of clean production technology, and strengthen the treatment of urban and rural domestic sewage;

[0129] The third is water ecological constraints (0010A, 0010B, 0010C, 0010D), which should implement water consumption control, strengthen water consumption control of surface water and groundwater utilization, and carry out ecological flow release control of water conservancy projects;

[0130] The fourth is water security constraints (0001A, 0001B, 0001C, 0001D), which require risk control, construction of flood control, drainage and drought relief projects, early warning and emergency dispatch, and improved resilience to disasters.

[0131] Control Path 3: If the unit is subject to multiple factor constraints, that is, it belongs to the double constraint, triple constraint or full constraint type, then the combined control of water consumption and risk should be implemented, and multi-factor-whole process coordinated control should be implemented according to the different factor constraints and dominant combinations of the unit.

[0132] Table 5 Differentiated control paths of each unit based on constraint-dominant characteristics

[0133]

[0134] Embodiment 1

[0135] This embodiment is a specific application example of the above method.

[0136] This embodiment takes the Yellow River Basin in Gansu Province as the target basin, and counties as the basic calculation units, and applies the above method to carry out specific implementation calculations based on relevant data such as water resources development and utilization, water environment monitoring, water conservancy statistics, economic and social statistics and planning of various cities in the current year (2020).

[0137] The spatial distribution of constraints on the natural water cycle elements in this example is as follows: Figure 3 As shown. In the calculation process of water resource constraint intensity, the distributed water cycle model (WEP) is introduced. According to the requirements of watershed and regional management in this embodiment, water resources and water security elements use the proportion constraint method to determine the strong constraint unit, and water environment and water ecological elements use the natural break point classification method to identify the strong constraint unit. The spatial distribution of water use dominance of various departments in the watershed social water cycle in this embodiment is shown in the figure below. Figure 4 The spatial distribution and coding of the natural and social water cycle coupling model based on the constraint-dominant characteristics in this embodiment are shown as follows: Figure 5 and Figure 6 Table 6 specifically shows the natural and social water cycle coupling pattern identification and differentiated control paths for each region (computation unit) in the basin of this embodiment.

[0138] Table 6 Identification and path selection of coupling patterns between natural and social water cycles in different regions

[0139]

[0140]

[0141] Finally, it should be noted that the above is only used to illustrate the technical solution of the present invention rather than to limit it. Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the preferred arrangement scheme, a person skilled in the art should understand that the technical solution of the present invention can be modified or replaced by equivalents without departing from the spirit and scope of the technical solution of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for quantitative identification and control of regional natural and social water cycle coupling patterns, characterized in that: The method comprises the following steps: Step 1, identifying the constraints of various elements of the natural water cycle on the social water cycle: identifying and calculating the constraints of various elements of the natural water cycle on the social water cycle, wherein the various elements of the natural water cycle include water resource elements of the natural water cycle, water environment elements of the natural water cycle, water ecological elements of the natural water cycle, and water safety elements of the natural water cycle; specifically including the following steps: Step 11: Identify the constraints of water resource elements of the natural water cycle on the social water cycle: Determine different regional objects in the target watershed, i.e., calculation units, calculate water resource constraint indexes of different calculation units, and determine water resource strong constraint units; The calculation formula of the water resource constraint index is: L t，j =Min(R t，j ,IN t,j ) W t，j =Ws t，j +Wv t，j +Wf t，j +Wd t，j In the formula, C t，j is the water resource constraint index of unit j in year t, %; U t，j is the water consumption of the jth unit in year t, m 3 ; L t，j is the water consumption limit of the jth unit in year t, m 3 ; R t，j is the total water consumption control red line of the jth unit in the tth year, m 3 ; W t,j is the available water volume of the jth unit in year t, m 3 ; Ws t，j is the surface water availability of unit j in year t, m 3 ;Wv t，j is the groundwater availability in unit j in year t, m 3 ;Wf t，j is the available water volume of non-conventional water sources in unit j in year t, m 3 ;Wd t，j is the available amount of transit water and external water for the jth unit in year t, m 3 ; Min() is the minimum value function; Tl t，j，m is the natural runoff in the mth month of the jth unit in the tth year, m 3 , m=1,2.....M, M is the total number of months, i.e. 12; Ea t，j，m，p is the river ecological flow index requirement for the pth section of the jth unit in the mth month of the tth year, m 3 ; p = 1, 2...P, P is the number of river ecological flow control sections; Fl t，j，m′ is the unusable amount of river flood in the jth unit in the mth month of the tth year, m 3 ; n1 and n2 are the start and end months of the flood season respectively; Step 12: Identify the constraints of natural water cycle water environment factors on social water cycle: Calculate the water environment constraint index of different calculation units and determine the water environment strong constraint unit; The calculation formula of the water environment constraint index is: In the formula, Q t，j is the water environment constraint index of unit j in year t, %; Qr t，j 、Ql t，j and Qd t，j Nr are the water quality indexes of rivers, lakes and groundwater in the jth unit in the tth year; t，j Nl is the number of river sections in the jth unit in the tth year; t，j and Nd t，j is the number of lakes, reservoirs and groundwater points in the j-th unit city in the t-th year; C rt，j，i , Cl t，j，i 、Cd t，j，i are the monitoring values ​​of the i-th indicator in the j-th unit in the t-th year for rivers, lakes and groundwater, mg / l; RC i，z and RC i，z+1 Cr t，j，i The two classification values ​​in the river water quality evaluation standard, namely the standard concentration of grade z and grade z+1, mg / l; LC i，z and LC i，z+1 Cl t，j，i Standard concentrations for the two classifications in the lake water quality assessment standard, mg / l; DC i，z and DC i，z+1 Cd t，j，i Standard concentrations for two classifications in the groundwater quality assessment standard, mg / l; RI i,z ,LI i，z and DI i，z They are the i-th index and z-th standard water quality index of rivers, lakes and groundwater respectively; i is the pollutant index, i=1, 2.....Nr t，j (Nl t，j or Nd t，j ); Step 13: Identify the constraints of the water ecological elements of the natural water cycle on the social water cycle: Calculate the water ecological constraint index of different calculation units and determine the water ecological strong constraint units; The calculation formula of the water ecological constraint index is: E t，j =Ks t，j ×It t，j ×Ys+Kv t，j ×Ev t，j ×Yv Ks t，j +Kv t，j =1 In the formula, E t，j is the water ecological constraint index of the jth unit in the tth year, %; Es t，j and Ev t，j Ks is the constraint index of river ecology and groundwater ecology respectively; t，j and Kv t，j are the weight coefficients of river ecology and groundwater ecology, respectively, with a value range of 0-1; Ku t，j is the drainage coefficient of the jth unit in the tth year, dimensionless; G j is the area of ​​groundwater overexploitation in the jth unit, m 2 ; A j is the total area of ​​the jth unit, m 2 ; m is the month, m = 1, 2.....M, M is the total number of months, i.e. 12; Ys and Yv are the selection coefficients of surface water ecology and groundwater ecology, respectively, which are 1 if they are considered and 0 if they are not considered; Ea t，j，m is the ecological flow target requirement for the jth unit in the mth month of the tth year; Step 14: Identify the constraints of natural water cycle water security factors on social water cycle: Calculate the water security constraint index of different calculation units and determine the water security strong constraint unit; The calculation formula of the water safety constraint index is: Among them, S t，j is the water security constraint index of the jth unit in the tth year, %; Sa t，j is the flood- and drought-affected area of ​​the jth unit in the tth year, m 2 ; A j is the total area of ​​the jth unit, m 2 ; Step 2: Calculate the dominance of water resource utilization in each department of the social water cycle: Calculate the dominance of water resource utilization in different departments of the social water cycle in each calculation unit. The water used in the social water cycle includes agricultural water, industrial water, domestic water, and ecological water. The calculation formula is: WITH t，j k =Max(For t,j，k ) Among them, Z t，j k is the dominance index of the jth unit in the tth year, dimensionless; Za t,j，k is the water use dominance index of the kth category in the jth unit in the tth year, dimensionless; U t，j，k is the water consumption of the kth category of the jth unit in the basin in the tth year, m 3 ; V t，k is the total amount of water used in the kth category in the basin in the tth year, m 3 ; V t is the total water consumption of the basin in year t, m 3 ; k is the type of water use, k = 1, 2, .... K, K = 4, that is, k = 1 is agricultural water use (A), k = 2 is industrial water use (B), k = 3 is domestic water use (C), k = 4 is ecological water use (D); Max() is the maximum value function; Step 3, construct the constraint-dominant natural and social water cycle coupling matrix: for different social water cycle water use dominant areas, according to the different strong constraint factors, they are divided into different constraint types, the strong constraint factors include strong constraints on water resources, strong constraints on water environment, strong constraints on water ecology and strong constraints on water security, and the constraint types include no constraints, single constraints, double constraints, triple constraints and full constraints; for the i-th unit in the t-th year of the basin, identify the strong constraint factors and dominant indexes it faces, determine the combination code, i.e., the coupling mode, and identify all the calculation units of the basin one by one, and construct the constraint-dominant natural and social water cycle coupling matrix of the t-th year of the basin; Step 4: Determine differentiated control paths for different modes: According to the constructed constraint-dominant natural and social water cycle coupling matrix, different control paths are selected for different coupling modes; For the i-th unit in the t-th year of the basin, if the calculation unit is of the unconstrained type, the control path is: do not implement control for the time being, and make predictions and interventions based on the annual development trend of the calculation unit; If the computing unit is of single constraint type, the control path is: 1) If it is a water resource constraint, implement water use control, promote industrial structure optimization and adjustment, promote water-saving technologies, and strengthen water use metering control; 2) If it is a water environment constraint, implement pollution emission control, promote the optimization and adjustment of industrial structure, strengthen the use of clean production technology, and strengthen the treatment of urban and rural domestic sewage; 3) If it is a water ecological constraint, water consumption control will be implemented, water consumption control of surface water and groundwater utilization will be strengthened, and ecological flow release control of water conservancy projects will be carried out; 4) If it is a water security constraint, implement risk control, build flood control, drainage and drought relief projects, implement early warning and emergency dispatch, and improve resilience to disasters; If the calculation unit belongs to the double-constraint, triple-constraint or full-constraint type, the management and control path is: implement combined control of water consumption and risk, and implement multi-factor-whole-process coordinated control according to the different factor constraints and dominant combinations of the unit.

2. A method for quantitative identification and control of regional natural and social water cycle coupling patterns according to claim 1, characterized in that: There are two ways to determine the water resource strong constraint unit in step 11: one is to use the natural break point classification method to identify the strong constraint unit, that is, set the number of classifications and select the category with the largest value as the strong constraint unit; the other is to use the proportion constraint method, that is, for all calculation units, arrange them in order from large to small according to their water resource constraint index, and extract the proportion as the strong constraint unit according to management requirements. The calculation formula is: Where J is the total number of all units; the rank() function gives the sequence number from small to large; Cx is the coefficient of the proportion of the number of water resources management units in the whole basin, which is set according to the requirements of basin management and the value is between 0 and 1; RC t，j It represents the constraint of the j-th unit water resources on the social water cycle in the t-th year, and 1 indicates a strong constraint.

3. A quantitative identification and analysis method of regional natural and social water cycle coupling patterns according to claim 1 The control method is characterized in that There are two ways to determine the water environment strong constraint unit in step 12: one is to use the natural break point classification method to identify the strong constraint unit, that is, set the number of categories and select the category with the largest value as the strong constraint unit; the other is to use the proportion constraint method, that is, arrange the calculation units in order from large to small according to the water environment constraint index, and extract the proportion as the strong constraint unit according to the management requirements. The calculation formula is: In the formula, Qx is the coefficient of the proportion of the number of water environment management units in the whole basin, which is set according to the requirements of basin management and the value is between 0 and 1; RQ t,j It represents the constraint of the water environment of the j-th unit in the t-th year on the social water cycle. 1 indicates a strong constraint.

4. A method for quantitative identification and control of regional natural and social water cycle coupling patterns according to claim 1, characterized in that: There are two ways to determine the water ecological strong constraint unit in step 13: one is to use the natural break point classification method to identify the strong constraint unit, that is, set the number of categories and select the category with the largest value as the strong constraint unit; the other is to use the proportion constraint method, that is, arrange the water ecological constraint index of the calculation unit in descending order, and extract the proportion as the strong constraint unit according to the management requirements. The calculation formula is: Where Ex is the coefficient of the proportion of the number of water ecological management units in the whole watershed, which is set according to the requirements of watershed management and the value is between 0 and 1; RE t,j It represents the constraint of the water ecology of the j-th unit on the social water cycle in the t-th year, and 1 indicates a strong constraint.

5. The method for quantitative identification and control of regional natural and social water cycle coupling patterns according to claim 1 is characterized in that: There are two ways to determine the water safety strong constraint unit in step 14: one is to use the natural break point classification method to identify the strong constraint unit, that is, set the number of categories and select the category with the largest value as the strong constraint unit; the other is to use the proportion constraint method, that is, arrange the calculation units in descending order according to the water safety constraint index of the calculation unit, and extract the proportion as the strong constraint unit according to the management requirements. The calculation formula is: Where Sx is the weight coefficient of the number of water safety management units in the whole basin, which is set according to the requirements of basin management and the value is between 0 and 1; RS t，j It represents the constraint of water security of unit j in year t on social water cycle, and 1 indicates strong constraint.

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