Method for predicting regional difference of carbon emission in tunnel materialization stage

Abstract

The invention discloses a method for predicting regional difference of carbon emission in a tunnel materialization stage, which comprises the following steps of: 1, coding material labels, and establishing a database F of various materials in a construction process; 2, respectively calculating material carbon emission and carbon emission standard reference values in tunnel materialization stages in the m region and the n region; 3, whether the material combination with the maximum carbon emission reaches the first participation degree of the material carbon emission or not is judged, if yes, the material combination with the maximum carbon emission is expanded by a corresponding multiple according to the target tunnel engineering quantity, and the total carbon emission of the whole project of the target tunnel is obtained; 4, obtaining carbon transaction weighted evaluation indexes of the two regions; and 5, calculating to obtain a carbon emission difference degree deviation value of the tunnel materialization stages of the two regions by using the sum of the target tunnel carbon emission and the carbon transaction weighted evaluation index, and completing inter-region carbon emission difference degree comparison. According to the method, the carbon emission of tunnel construction in each region and the difference between the regions can be quickly predicted.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of carbon emission prediction, and in particular to a method for predicting regional differences in carbon emission during a tunnel physicalization stage. Background Art

[0002] The domestic carbon emission calculation model is in the open exploration stage. The life cycle assessment theory and the influencing factor decomposition method have different application prospects. In the construction field, the "Building Carbon Emission Calculation Standard" is the most widely used calculation basis, but the way to introduce relevant indicators into municipal tunnels still needs further study.

[0003] It is obvious that using carbon emissions as the only criterion for carbon emission activities has natural application defects. First, it only considers the changes in the absolute amount of carbon emissions, but ignores the regional differences in carbon emissions and does not consider the cycle required for the construction project stage. Second, the carbon emissions from material production, transportation, and measures are calculated separately, which is not conducive to analyzing the main materials that need to be improved and replaced. For example, the current carbon emissions assessment of tunnel projects is to calculate the carbon emissions from material production on paper through the material procurement list, and then calculate the carbon emissions from transportation and measures based on the number of mechanical equipment entering and leaving the site and the on-site working hours. Mechanical equipment will serve multiple materials at the same time. In this case, if the carbon emissions from the production of a material are low but the carbon emissions from measures are high, it will not be easy to be discovered. At the same time, it is also impossible to rule out the impact of mechanical equipment idleness.

[0004] It is common sense that tunnel materialization activities carried out in different regions and at different times will have completely different social impacts and economic benefits. In order to compare the carbon emissions of tunnel materialization in different regions, a quantitative indicator with a certain range of variation and high stability is needed as a benchmark for carbon emissions calculation. Summary of the invention

[0005] The purpose of the present invention is to provide a method for predicting regional differences in carbon emissions during the physical and chemical stage of a tunnel, which solves the technical problems that the conventional method of calculating the carbon emissions during the physical and chemical stage of various buildings by accumulation method has a large workload and cannot reflect regional differences.

[0006] To achieve the above object, the present invention provides the following technical solution: a method for predicting regional differences in carbon emissions during the physical and chemical stage of a tunnel, comprising the following steps:

[0007] S1. Obtain the quantity of materials in the target project, code the material labels, and establish a database F of various materials in the construction process for subsequent data extraction;

[0008] S2. Assuming that the target project is constructed in area m and area n respectively, calculate the carbon emission of materials in the physical and chemical stage of tunnels in area m and area n and the carbon emission standard reference value A respectively;

[0009] S3. Determine whether the material combination with the largest carbon emission reaches the first participation degree of material carbon emission. If so, expand the material combination with the largest carbon emission by a corresponding multiple according to the size of the target tunnel project to obtain the total carbon emission of the target tunnel project;

[0010] S4. Obtaining weighted evaluation indicators of carbon trading in regions m and n;

[0011] S5. Using the total carbon emissions of the target tunnels and the weighted evaluation index of carbon trading, calculate the deviation value of the carbon emissions difference in the materialization stage of the tunnels in area m and area n, and complete the comparison of carbon emissions differences between regions, so as to evaluate the carbon emissions of tunnel construction in different regions and the differences between regions.

[0012] Preferably, in S1, the engineering quantity of the target engineering material is directly read through the building information model BIM.

[0013] Preferably, in S1, the material label is coded as:

[0014] Tunnel type, material usage location in the tunnel, material name, material transportation method, material transportation distance, and construction method are labeled and coded separately.

[0015] Preferably, in S2, the calculation expression for calculating the carbon emission standard reference value A of region m and region n is:

[0016] Standard reference value A = ∑ materials in the catalog of target project N × unit standard value of carbon emissions;

[0017] The calculation expressions for calculating the carbon emissions of materials in the physical and chemical stages of tunnels in area m and area n are:

[0018] E cs [m] = ∑ (tunnel type + location of use + material + transportation method + transportation distance +

[0019] Construction method) × target engineering quantity;

[0020] E cs [n] = ∑ (tunnel type + location of use + material + transportation method + transportation distance +

[0021] Construction method) × target project volume.

[0022] The carbon emissions of the materials, transportation methods, transportation distances and construction methods are obtained by consulting the "Building Carbon Emission Calculation Standards", regional, industry, group and other standards.

[0023] Preferably, in S3, the calculation expression of the material combination with the maximum carbon emission is:

[0024] E cs =∑E cs [m] i ;

[0025] Where i is the type of material;

[0026] The first participation in material carbon emissions is:

[0027] Ω=∑E ci / E q ;

[0028] In the formula, E ci is the carbon emission of the i-th material in the tunnel; E q It is the total carbon emissions of the entire tunnel project.

[0029] Preferably, in S3, judging whether the material combination with the maximum carbon emission reaches the first participation degree of material carbon emission includes the following steps:

[0030] S31. If Then Ω ≥ f, reaching the first participation degree of material carbon emissions;

[0031] In the formula, A is the target reference value; g is the probability assurance coefficient; f is the confidence interval of material carbon emissions, f<1.

[0032] S32, if Then the material combination E with the maximum carbon emission is updated by regression analysis cs Until it meets

[0033] S33. According to the size of the target tunnel project, the material combination with the maximum carbon emission is expanded by a corresponding multiple to obtain the total carbon emission of the target tunnel project:

[0034] E q =E cs / f;

[0035] Where f is the confidence interval of the carbon emissions of the material, f<1.

[0036] Preferably, the calculation expression of the carbon emission difference deviation value is:

[0037]

[0038] In the formula, E qnj E is the total carbon emissions of the entire project in the materialization stage of the jth tunnel in the nth region; qmjis the total carbon emissions of the entire project in the materialization stage of the fth tunnel in area m; q nk is the weighted evaluation index of carbon trading in the kth month in region n; mk is the weighted evaluation index of carbon trading in region m in the kth month.

[0039] Compared with the prior art, the present invention has the following beneficial effects:

[0040] The present invention can standardize the carbon emission calculation boundary of tunnel construction, and avoid the problem of missing items in material carbon emissions during the statistical process due to unclear understanding of the analysis boundary by construction units due to different technical strengths.

[0041] The present invention simplifies the analysis process by evaluating the primary participation of tunnel materials and utilizing regression algorithms, etc. to quickly screen out the main materials.

[0042] The present invention establishes a unified carbon emission evaluation standard during the tunnel construction stage, and in particular can use the same standard to analyze the differences in carbon emission indicators during the tunnel construction stage in different regions, which is conducive to evaluating the advantages and disadvantages of carbon emissions from engineering construction in different regions. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0043] Figure 1 It is a schematic diagram of the overall process of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0044] The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below in conjunction with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present invention, rather than all the embodiments; based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without making creative work are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0045] See also Figure 1 In order to solve the problems of slow speed, large statistical error and failure to consider regional differences in the existing carbon emission calculation method, the present invention provides a method for predicting regional differences in carbon emissions during the tunnel physical and chemical stage, comprising the following steps:

[0046] S1. Read the quantity of materials in the target project through the building information model BIM, code the material labels, and establish a database F of various materials in the construction process;

[0047] The material label is coded as:

[0048] Tunnel type, material usage location in the tunnel, material name, material transportation method, material transportation distance, and construction method are labeled and coded separately.

[0049] In a specific embodiment, for the main line V-level surrounding rock [Type A, tunnel section], invert (position), C30S8 (material), off-site transportation by mixer truck, +15 km transportation distance, and material poured by pressure pump, the data label is recorded as (Z5A / Ds, YG, C30S8, J1, +15, BC).

[0050] For the auxiliary line Grade IV surrounding rock [Type B, portal section], lining (location), C30S8 (material), off-site transportation by mixer trucks, +5 km transportation distance, and robot-assisted pouring materials, the data labels are recorded as (F4B / Dk, CQ, C30S8, J1, +05, SR).

[0051] By consulting the Building Carbon Emission Calculation Standards, regional, industry, and group standards, the above two materials are calculated based on the carbon emission standards of different regions:

[0052] e cs [cd](Z5A / Ds,YG,C30S8,J1,+15,BC)=783kg.co2e / m 3 ;

[0053] e cs [cq](F4B / Dk,CQ,C30S8,J1,+05,SR)=672kg.co2e / m 3 .

[0054] S2. Assuming that the target project is constructed in area m and area n respectively, the carbon emission of materials in the physical and chemical stage of tunnels in area m and area n and the carbon emission standard reference value A are calculated using the following formulas respectively;

[0055] Standard reference value A = ∑ materials in the catalog of target project N × unit standard value of carbon emissions;

[0056] The calculation expressions for calculating the carbon emissions of materials in the physical and chemical stages of tunnels in area m and area n are:

[0057] E cs [m] = ∑ (tunnel type + location of use + material + transportation method + transportation distance +

[0058] Construction method) × target engineering quantity;

[0059] E cs [n] = ∑ (tunnel type + location of use + material + transportation method + transportation distance +

[0060] Construction method) × target project volume.

[0061] According to the "Building Carbon Emission Calculation Standards", regional, industry and group carbon emission calculation standards, the target project N catalog is established. Since the "Building Carbon Emission Calculation Standards", industry and group standards only consider the carbon emissions in the material production process, and do not consider the carbon emissions during the construction process of the materials, the materials in the target project N catalog are far less than the types of materials actually used in the target project.

[0062] If the carbon emissions of all materials are counted according to the actual situation of the target project, it will be a huge amount of calculation. Since the distribution of carbon emissions of materials basically conforms to the ABC classification method, that is, some materials bear most of the carbon emissions, according to statistical principles, the material combination with the maximum carbon emissions is calculated.

[0063] S3. Determine whether the material combination with the largest carbon emission reaches the first participation degree of material carbon emission. If so, expand the material combination with the largest carbon emission by a corresponding multiple according to the size of the target tunnel project to obtain the total carbon emission of the target tunnel project;

[0064] The calculation expression of the material combination with the maximum carbon emission is:

[0065] E cs =∑E cs [m] i ;

[0066] Where i is the type of material;

[0067] The first participation in material carbon emissions is:

[0068] Ω=∑E ci / E q ;

[0069] In the formula, E ci is the carbon emission of the i-th material in the tunnel; E q It is the total carbon emissions of the entire tunnel project.

[0070] Using probability theory to fit the material combination with the maximum carbon emissions and the corresponding primacy should have a confidence interval f. The more extensive the data environment, the higher the requirements for the confidence interval f.

[0071] The specific steps are as follows:

[0072] S31. If Then Ω ≥ f, reaching the first participation degree of material carbon emissions;

[0073] In the formula, A is the target reference value; g is the probability assurance coefficient; f is the confidence interval of material carbon emissions, f<1.

[0074] S32, if Then the material combination E with the maximum carbon emission is updated by regression analysis cs Until it meets

[0075] S33. According to the size of the target tunnel project, the material combination with the maximum carbon emission is expanded by a corresponding multiple to obtain the total carbon emission of the target tunnel project:

[0076] E q =E cs / f;

[0077] Where f is the confidence interval of the carbon emissions of the material, f<1.

[0078] In a specific embodiment, the calculation steps are as follows:

[0079] 1. In area m, according to the target project scale, C types of materials are extracted from database F. For small, medium and large tunnels, the total materials required for construction are extracted respectively. The computing efficiency is improved while ensuring the data volume.

[0080] 2. Use the formula to calculate the carbon emissions of materials in the physical and chemical stage of the tunnel:

[0081] E cs [m] = ∑ (tunnel type + location of use + material + transportation method + transportation distance +

[0082] Construction method) × target project volume.

[0083] 3. Calculation Is it true? If so, the whole group is thrown into the [elimination set], C types of materials are re-selected, and the judgment formula is reviewed;

[0084] Assume that the regression step is σ, the order of the data set C is shuffled once, and then divided into σ groups numbered 1-σ, each containing C / σ materials;

[0085] Extract a set of materials of number C / σ from the set {database FC} and calculate E cs [m], then calculate E cs , and the E calculated last time cs Compare the sizes, if it is larger, replace it and throw the raw material group into the [elimination set], if it is smaller, the newly extracted group will enter the [elimination set].

[0086] From the set {database FC-[elimination set]}, select a set of C / σ materials and calculate E cs , and E calculated last time csCompare the sizes, if it is larger, replace it and throw the raw material group into the [elimination set], if it is smaller, the newly extracted group will enter the [elimination set].

[0087] Until If established, it means that the extracted materials contain important carbon emission materials (the main carbon emission materials in the project), and proceed to the next step.

[0088] 4. At this time, it means Ω≥f. The first participation degree Ω of material carbon emissions is set according to the size of the target project. The smaller the project, the greater the first participation degree Ω. For example, Ω=90%, and the probability guarantee coefficient g=1.3. The probability guarantee coefficient g is determined according to the material types in the "Building Carbon Emission Calculation Standard". The more material types in the "Building Carbon Emission Calculation Standard", the smaller the probability guarantee coefficient g. In this way, the total carbon emissions of the target tunnel E 总 =E cs / 0.9, which is equivalent to the engineering volume of this group of data being magnified by 1.11 times, which can represent the tunnel project.

[0089] S4. Obtain the weighted evaluation index of carbon trading in region m and region n; the weighted evaluation index of carbon trading is the monthly declared price of carbon trading or the quarterly declared price of carbon trading.

[0090] S5. Using the total carbon emissions of the target tunnels and the weighted evaluation index of carbon trading, calculate the deviation value of the carbon emissions difference between the tunnels in area m and area n during the materialization stage, and complete the comparison of carbon emissions differences between regions.

[0091] The calculation expression of the carbon emission difference deviation value is:

[0092]

[0093] In the formula, E qnj E is the total carbon emissions of the entire project in the materialization stage of the jth tunnel in the nth region; qmj is the total carbon emissions of the entire project in the materialization stage of the jth tunnel in area m; q nk is the weighted evaluation index of carbon trading in the kth month in region n; mk is the weighted evaluation index of carbon trading in region m in the kth month.

[0094] Because 0≤|μ|≤1, the closer |μ| is to 0, the smaller the difference in carbon emissions between region m and region n. When it is a positive number, it means that the carbon emissions from construction in region m are less, and vice versa. By predicting and comparing the total carbon emissions of the two places, it is possible to evaluate which region the project is built in to reduce social impact and economic costs, so as to reasonably plan the project construction area.

Claims

1. A method for predicting regional differences in carbon emissions during the physical and chemical stage of a tunnel, characterized in that: The following steps are involved: S1. Obtain the quantity of materials in the target project, code the material labels, and establish a database F of various materials in the construction process; S2. Assuming that the target project is constructed in area m and area n respectively, calculate the carbon emission of materials in the physical and chemical stage of tunnels in area m and area n and the carbon emission standard reference value A respectively; S3. Determine whether the material combination with the largest carbon emission reaches the first participation degree of material carbon emission. If so, expand the material combination with the largest carbon emission by a corresponding multiple according to the size of the target tunnel project to obtain the total carbon emission of the target tunnel project; S4. Obtaining weighted evaluation indicators of carbon trading in regions m and n; S5. Using the total carbon emissions of the target tunnels and the weighted evaluation index of carbon trading, calculate the deviation value of the carbon emissions difference between the tunnels in area m and area n during the materialization stage, and complete the comparison of carbon emissions differences between regions.

2. The method for predicting regional differences in carbon emissions during the physical and chemical stage of a tunnel according to claim 1 is characterized in that: In S1, the engineering quantity of the target engineering material is directly read through the building information model BIM.

3. The method for predicting regional differences in carbon emissions during the physical and chemical stage of a tunnel according to claim 2, characterized in that: In S1, the material label is coded as: Tunnel type, material usage location in the tunnel, material name, material transportation method, material transportation distance, and construction method are labeled and coded separately.

4. The method for predicting regional differences in carbon emissions during the physical and chemical stage of a tunnel according to claim 1, characterized in that: In S2, the calculation expression for the carbon emission standard reference value A of region m and region n is: Standard reference value A = ∑ materials in the catalog of target project N × unit standard value of carbon emissions; The calculation expressions for calculating the carbon emissions of materials in the physical and chemical stages of tunnels in area m and area n are: E xs [m] = ∑ (tunnel type + location of use + material + transportation method + transportation distance + construction method) × target engineering quantity; E cs [n] = ∑ (tunnel type + location of use + material + transportation method + transportation distance + construction method) × target project volume.

5. The method for predicting regional differences in carbon emissions during the physical and chemical stage of a tunnel according to claim 1, characterized in that: In S3, the calculation expression of the material combination with the maximum carbon emission is: HAVE BEEN cs =∑E cs [m] i ; Where i is the type of material; The first participation in material carbon emissions is: Ω=∑E ci / E q ; In the formula, E ci is the carbon emission of the i-th material in the tunnel; E q It is the total carbon emissions of the entire tunnel project.

6. The method for predicting regional differences in carbon emissions during the physical and chemical stage of a tunnel according to claim 5, characterized in that: In S3, judging whether the material combination with the largest carbon emission reaches the first participation degree of material carbon emission includes the following steps: S31. If Then Ω ≥ f, reaching the first participation degree of material carbon emissions; In the formula, A is the target reference value; g is the probability assurance coefficient; f is the confidence interval of the material carbon emission, f<1; S32, if The regression analysis method is used to update the material combination E with the maximum carbon emission cs Until it meets S33. According to the size of the target tunnel project, the material combination with the maximum carbon emission is expanded by a corresponding multiple to obtain the total carbon emission of the target tunnel project: AND q =And cs / f; Where f is the confidence interval of the carbon emissions of the material, f<1.

7. The method for predicting regional differences in carbon emissions during the physical and chemical stage of a tunnel according to claim 1, characterized in that: The calculation expression of the carbon emission difference deviation value is: In the formula, E qnj is the total carbon emissions of the entire project during the materialization phase of the j-th tunnel in region n; E qmj is the total carbon emissions of the entire project in the materialization stage of the jth tunnel in area m; q nk is the weighted evaluation index of carbon trading in the kth month in region n; mk is the weighted evaluation index of carbon trading in region m in the kth month.

Images