Blowout preventer sea test effect evaluation method based on game theory combined empowerment and fuzzy evaluation

Abstract

The invention discloses a blowout preventer sea test effect evaluation method based on game theory combination weighting and fuzzy evaluation, belongs to the technical field of effect evaluation, is used for blowout preventer sea test effect evaluation, and comprises the following steps: constructing a blowout preventer sea test effect evaluation model, performing subjective weight calculation through a triangular fuzzy analytic hierarchy process subjective weighting method, and calculating the evaluation result of the blowout preventer sea test effect. Objective weight calculation is carried out through a CRITIC objective weighting method, game theory subjective and objective combination weighting is carried out, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is carried out on game theory subjective and objective combination weighting results, and a blowout preventer sea test effect evaluation result is obtained. The method has guiding significance for sea test data acquisition of the blowout preventer group and the control system thereof and scientific evaluation of the performance of the blowout preventer group and the control system thereof, and the evaluation result can provide a reference basis for optimization and improvement of the blowout preventer group and the control system thereof after the sea test.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The invention discloses a method for evaluating the sea trial effect of a blowout preventer based on game theory combined weighting and fuzzy evaluation, and belongs to the technical field of effect evaluation. Background Art

[0002] BOP is an essential safety device in offshore or deepwater drilling equipment. Its function is to control the wellhead pressure when a blowout or well kick occurs, and to close the wellhead when the drilling equipment is evacuated in an emergency such as a typhoon, to ensure the safety of personnel and equipment, and to avoid marine environmental pollution and damage to oil and gas resources. In view of the special drilling conditions in the ultra-high temperature and high pressure formation environment, the newly developed ultra-high temperature and high pressure drilling blowout preventer group and its control system are about to be put into sea trial application. How to quantitatively determine whether these equipment indicators can meet the standards through scientific evaluation methods is crucial for the correct decision-making and technical preparation of ultra-high temperature and high pressure drilling operations.

[0003] In terms of evaluation methods, there are many methods for determining the weights of indicators, such as principal component analysis, analytic hierarchy process, entropy value method, CRITIC method, etc. The analytic hierarchy process is a subjective weighting method with a certain degree of subjectivity; the entropy weight method and principal component analysis method are objective weighting methods, which rely on original data. Indicators with large changes must have larger weights. In some cases, they do not meet the decision-making requirements and cannot reflect the relative importance of indicators in stages. However, when using fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and entropy weight method to assign values, it is impossible to distinguish the relative importance of the indicator in these two stages. The subjective intention of the decision maker is not considered, and its weight may differ greatly from the actual importance. Therefore, neither the subjective weighting method nor the objective weighting method alone can accurately reflect the true weight of the evaluation indicator. The combination of subjective and objective weighting can effectively avoid the defects of the subjective and objective weighting method alone and make the evaluation method more reasonable.

[0004] Game theory is a method of seeking solutions to problems in the context of mutual dependence and mutual constraints in order to obtain maximum benefits. In the weighting of subjective and objective weight combinations, game theory can consider multiple factors to find the best weighting scheme. It has been applied in various fields. This invention attempts to introduce it into the effect evaluation of blowout preventers. Summary of the invention

[0005] The purpose of the present invention is to provide a method for evaluating the sea trial effect of a blowout preventer based on game theory combined weighting and fuzzy evaluation, so as to solve the problem in the prior art that the subjective weighting method is subjective, the objective analysis method cannot reflect the relative importance of indicators in stages, and the single weighting method is inaccurate.

[0006] The evaluation method of BOP sea trial effect based on game theory combined weighting and fuzzy evaluation includes: S1. Construct a model for evaluating the sea trial effect of BOP; S2. Calculate subjective weights through triangular fuzzy analytic hierarchy process; S3. Objective weight calculation is performed through the CRITIC objective weighting method; S4. Carry out game theory subjective and objective combination weighting; S5. Perform fuzzy comprehensive evaluation on the results of game theory subjective and objective combined weighting to obtain the evaluation results of the sea trial effect of the blowout preventer.

[0007] The evaluation model of BOP sea trial effect includes target layer, criterion layer and index layer; The target layer is the evaluation of the sea trial effect of the blowout preventer, and the criterion layer includes criteria in six dimensions, and the criteria in each dimension are provided with bottom-level indicators in the indicator layer.

[0008] The subjective weight calculation is carried out through the triangular fuzzy hierarchical analysis subjective weighting method, including S2.1. Constructing the fuzzy judgment matrix , S2.2. Calculate the probability and S2.3. Calculate the subjective weight; S2.1 includes: S2.1.1. Compare the data of the quasi-measurement layer and the index layer pairwise to obtain the triangular fuzzy number : ; In the formula, , and They represent the lower, median and upper values ​​of the triangular fuzzy number respectively. For the judgment results of multiple experts, the average value is taken as the triangular fuzzy number; S2.1.2. All the obtained triangular fuzzy numbers Arrangement Order Matrix : ; In the formula, To pass the indicator and indicators What you get ; S2.1.3. Yes To perform a consistency check: ; In the formula, is the consistency ratio, is the maximum eigenvalue of the fuzzy judgment matrix, is the order of the fuzzy judgment matrix, is the random consistency indicator, When , the fuzzy judgment matrix passes the consistency test.

[0009] S2.2 includes Layer Indicators The comprehensive fuzzy value of for: ; In the formula, It is Layer , ; calculate Possibility : ; In the formula, For the Layer Indicators The comprehensive fuzzy value of , yes The next and median value of , yes The median and previous value.

[0010] S2.3 includes: ; In the formula, Representation and indicators and indicators Indicators that are not equal , is the first Layer Indicators The comprehensive fuzzy value of ; In the formula, It is Layer Indicators The final weight of .

[0011] Objective weight calculation through CRITIC objective weighting method includes S3.1. standardization of indicators, S3.2. calculation of matrix standard number and correlation coefficient and S3.3. calculation of objective weight; S3.1 includes the use of forward and reverse processing to non-dimensionalize the underlying indicators, and forward processing is performed on indicators with larger values ​​and more accuracy: ; For indicators with smaller values, the more accurate they are, the reverse processing is performed: ; In the formula, After processing The evaluation results indicators, It is indicators.

[0012] S3.2 includes the matrix standard number: ; In the formula, It is The matrix standard number of indicators, is the total number of dimensions, It is the standard matrix Line The value of the column, It is the standard matrix The value of the column; Correlation coefficient for: ; In the formula, It is the standard matrix The value of the row, It is The matrix standard number of evaluation results; S3.3 includes the following: The amount of information contained in an indicator is : ; The first The proportion of the information content of each indicator to the total information content is taken as the The objective weight of the indicator : .

[0013] The subjective and objective combination weighting method of game theory includes S4.1. obtaining weight vector, S4.2. optimizing linear combination coefficients and S4.3. obtaining combination weight; S4.1 includes constructing a basic weight set : ; In the formula, To determine the number of weighting methods, record Any linear combination of vectors is: ; In the formula, is the weight vector, is the linear combination coefficient.

[0014] S4.2 includes the optimization of the linear combination coefficients: ; In the formula, is the optimization target of the linear combination coefficients; Determine the linear differential equations that meet the first-order derivative conditions of the linear combination coefficient optimization conditions, and obtain the linear combination coefficients : ; S4.3 includes combined weights for: ; In the formula, After normalization .

[0015] 5 Includes a set of factors that determine the evaluation object and Commentary : ; ; In the formula, It affects the overall evaluation The evaluation results of the evaluation object constitute the comment set. ; right A comprehensive evaluation of the factors was conducted to obtain A fuzzy evaluation set, Fuzzy evaluation sets form a fuzzy relation matrix : ; In the formula, The factor concentration Factors in the review set The degree of membership of each level; The combined weights of the factors Perform fuzzy synthesis with the fuzzy relationship matrix to obtain the result vector of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation : ; ; In the formula, The first The degree of membership of an indicator; Get the first The comprehensive score of the indicators : .

[0016] Compared with the prior art, the present invention has the following beneficial effects: the present invention improves the single criterion performance of components with low scoring results in a targeted manner, thereby improving the overall performance of the blowout preventer group and its control system; the performance evaluation of the blowout preventer group and its control system after the sea trial is analyzed and judged according to the evaluation results, the aspects that need to be improved in the blowout preventer group and its control system are pointed out, and improvement implementation measures are formulated, so as to make technical preparations for the actual application of the project; in the embodiment of the present invention, a corresponding blowout preventer group and its control system comment set is obtained, and its evaluation level is "good", indicating that the blowout preventer group and its control system have good comprehensive performance; the present invention has guiding significance for the sea trial data collection of the blowout preventer group and its control system and the scientific evaluation of the performance of the blowout preventer group and its control system, and the evaluation results can provide a reference basis for the optimization and improvement of the blowout preventer group and its control system after the sea trial. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0017] Figure 1 This is the sea trial flow chart of the BOP group and its control system; Figure 2 It is a model for evaluating the sea trial effect of the BOP group and its control system; Figure 3 It is the technical roadmap of the present invention; Figure 4 It is a single weight value diagram based on triangular fuzzy analytic hierarchy process; Figure 5 This is the result diagram of the subjective, objective and combined weight calculation of each index layer of the sea trial effect; Figure 6 The calculation results and proportion diagram of subjective, objective and combined weights of each criterion layer of sea trial effect; Figure 7 This is the comprehensive scoring and grade assessment chart for the sea trial of the BOP group and its control system. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0018] In order to make the purpose, technical solution and advantages of the present invention clearer, the technical solution of the present invention is described clearly and completely below. Obviously, the described embodiments are part of the embodiments of the present invention, but not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0019] The evaluation method of BOP sea trial effect based on game theory combined weighting and fuzzy evaluation includes: S1. Construct a model for evaluating the sea trial effect of BOP; S2. Calculate subjective weights through triangular fuzzy analytic hierarchy process; S3. Objective weight calculation is performed through the CRITIC objective weighting method; S4. Carry out game theory subjective and objective combination weighting; S5. Perform fuzzy comprehensive evaluation on the results of game theory subjective and objective combined weighting to obtain the evaluation results of the sea trial effect of the blowout preventer.

[0020] The evaluation model of BOP sea trial effect includes target layer, criterion layer and index layer; The target layer is the evaluation of the sea trial effect of the blowout preventer, and the criterion layer includes criteria in six dimensions, and the criteria in each dimension are provided with bottom-level indicators in the indicator layer.

[0021] The subjective weight calculation is carried out through the triangular fuzzy hierarchical analysis subjective weighting method, including S2.1. Constructing the fuzzy judgment matrix , S2.2. Calculate the probability and S2.3. Calculate the subjective weight; S2.1 includes: S2.1.1. Compare the data of the quasi-measurement layer and the index layer pairwise to obtain the triangular fuzzy number : ; In the formula, , and They represent the lower, median and upper values ​​of the triangular fuzzy number respectively. For the judgment results of multiple experts, the average value is taken as the triangular fuzzy number; S2.1.2. All the obtained triangular fuzzy numbers Arrangement Order Matrix : ; In the formula, To pass the indicator and indicators What you get ; S2.1.3. Yes To perform a consistency check: ; In the formula, is the consistency ratio, is the maximum eigenvalue of the fuzzy judgment matrix, is the order of the fuzzy judgment matrix, is the random consistency indicator, When , the fuzzy judgment matrix passes the consistency test.

[0022] S2.2 includes Layer Indicators The comprehensive fuzzy value of for: ; In the formula, It is Layer , ; calculate Possibility : ; In the formula, For the Layer Indicators The comprehensive fuzzy value of , yes The next and median value of , yes The median and previous value.

[0023] S2.3 includes: ; In the formula, Representation and indicators and indicators Indicators that are not equal , is the first Layer Indicators The comprehensive fuzzy value of ; In the formula, It is Layer Indicators The final weight of .

[0024] Objective weight calculation through CRITIC objective weighting method includes S3.1. standardization of indicators, S3.2. calculation of matrix standard number and correlation coefficient and S3.3. calculation of objective weight; S3.1 includes the use of forward and reverse processing to non-dimensionalize the underlying indicators, and forward processing is performed on indicators with larger values ​​and more accuracy: ; For indicators with smaller values, the more accurate they are, the reverse processing is performed: ; In the formula, After processing The evaluation results indicators, It is indicators.

[0025] S3.2 includes the matrix standard number: ; In the formula, It is The matrix standard number of indicators, is the total number of dimensions, It is the standard matrix Line The value of the column, It is the standard matrix The value of the column; Correlation coefficient for: ; In the formula, It is the standard matrix The value of the row, It is The matrix standard number of evaluation results; S3.3 includes the following: The amount of information contained in an indicator is : ; The first The proportion of the information content of each indicator to the total information content is taken as the The objective weight of the indicator : .

[0026] The subjective and objective combination weighting method of game theory includes S4.1. obtaining weight vector, S4.2. optimizing linear combination coefficients and S4.3. obtaining combination weight; S4.1 includes constructing a basic weight set : ; In the formula, To determine the number of weighting methods, record Any linear combination of vectors is: ; In the formula, is the weight vector, is the linear combination coefficient.

[0027] S4.2 includes the optimization of the linear combination coefficients: ; In the formula, is the optimization objective of the linear combination coefficients; Determine the linear differential equations that meet the first-order derivative conditions of the linear combination coefficient optimization conditions, and obtain the linear combination coefficients : ; S4.3 includes combined weights for: ; In the formula, After normalization .

[0028] 5 Includes a set of factors that determine the evaluation object and Commentary : ; ; In the formula, It affects the overall evaluation The evaluation results of the evaluation object constitute the comment set. ; right A comprehensive evaluation of the factors was conducted to obtain A fuzzy evaluation set, Fuzzy evaluation sets form a fuzzy relation matrix : ; In the formula, The factor concentration Factors in the review set The degree of membership of each level; The combined weights of the factors Perform fuzzy synthesis with the fuzzy relationship matrix to obtain the result vector of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation : ; ; In the formula, The first The degree of membership of an indicator; Get the first The comprehensive score of the indicators : .

[0029] In order to scientifically evaluate the comprehensive performance of the ultra-high temperature and high pressure blowout preventer group and its control system and improve the research and development capabilities of the blowout preventer group and its control system, the present invention proposes 6 criteria by analyzing the sea trial process, and accordingly constructs a comprehensive evaluation hierarchical system of the sea trial effect of the blowout preventer group and its control system including 19 evaluation indicators, which comprehensively considers the influence of multiple key factors in the sea trial process. The present invention adopts a comprehensive evaluation model of the blowout preventer group and its control system based on a game theory combined weighting method based on triangular fuzzy hierarchical analysis (TFAHP)-index importance evaluation (CRITIC) and a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The subjective weight of each indicator is determined by the triangular fuzzy hierarchical analysis method, and the objective weight is determined by the CRITIC method. Then, the game theory method is used to perform combined weighting and calculate the optimal combined weight. Finally, the model adopts the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to quantitatively analyze the evaluation indicators of the blowout preventer group and its control system, thereby obtaining its comprehensive performance and sub-item performance, quantitatively evaluating the blowout preventer group and its control system, and making the evaluation results clearer and more intuitive.

[0030] In order to scientifically evaluate the sea trial effect of the newly developed ultra-high temperature and high pressure blowout preventer group and its control system, the present invention is based on the existing expert experience and evaluation criteria, combined with the corresponding performance index requirements, and comprehensively considers the influence of the characteristics of ultra-high temperature and high pressure drilling operations on the sea trial effect of the blowout preventer group and its control system, establishes a sea trial effect evaluation index system, and constructs a method for evaluating the sea trial effect of the ultra-high temperature and high pressure blowout preventer group and its control system by combining the THAHP method and the CRITIC method with the game theory idea, and then combining the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The method uses the triangular fuzzy hierarchical analysis method to determine the subjective weight, solves the problem that the AHP method is difficult to ensure the consistency of thinking due to too many evaluation indicators, uses the CRITIC method to correct the subjective weight, and uses the game theory idea to combine the two methods, which can reduce the influence of subjective arbitrariness to a certain extent, comprehensively consider the decision maker's preference for attributes, and adapt to complex and uncertain environments, while considering multiple goals and indicators, and finding the best weight distribution scheme. Finally, the combined weight value and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method were applied to the effect classification evaluation to verify the applicability of this method. The relevant results can be used to analyze and judge the performance evaluation of the blowout preventer group and its control system after the sea trial, point out the aspects that need to be improved in the blowout preventer group and its control system, and formulate improvement implementation measures to make technical preparations for actual engineering application.

[0031] Sea trials are an effective way to test whether newly developed ultra-high temperature and high pressure key equipment can adapt to the working environment of sea conditions and verify the technical performance and usage functions of the equipment. The sea trial process of the blowout preventer group and its control system includes the lifting and installation of the equipment to the platform, storage position testing, installation of the blowout preventer group at the wellhead position, initial installation test at the wellhead, operation period testing, wellhead displacement to the storage position, disassembly and inspection of the whole machine, and packaging. Figure 1As shown, first, complete the lifting of the BOP equipment, remove the original BOP on the platform, and install the target sea trial equipment. Subsequently, after connecting all BOPs and valve control pipelines, checking the positions of the hydraulic valves and manual valves, and the status of the stop valves at the accumulator interface, perform a storage position test. Then, install the BOP group and perform an initial installation pressure test on the wellhead. During the operation, in accordance with the procedures and requirements of the storage position test, regularly perform special shear main accumulator tests, control system and remote panel function tests, HPU pump system tests, annular BOP switch action tests, etc. Finally, disassemble and reassemble according to the sea trial process to form a complete sea trial closed-loop operation process.

[0032] The sea trial effect of the ultra-high temperature and high pressure blowout preventer group and its control system is a multi-factor, multi-level analysis content. The rationality and completeness of the index system selection directly affect the weight calculation results of the factors affecting the sea trial effect of the blowout preventer group and its control system, and then affect the rationality of the sea trial effect. Therefore, the factors affecting the sea trial effect should be analyzed according to the actual situation of the sea trial, and the sea trial effect influencing indicators with comprehensiveness and objectivity should be selected. In the process of selecting evaluation indicators, it is necessary to follow the principles of systematization and scientificity, and at the same time ensure that they have broad representativeness and operability. The present invention constructs a comprehensive evaluation index system for the sea trial effect of the blowout preventer group and its control system by analyzing the sea trial operation process of the ultra-high temperature and high pressure blowout preventer group and its control system using the triangular fuzzy hierarchical analysis method. The entire evaluation index system consists of a target layer, a criterion layer and an indicator layer.

[0033] The goal of the target layer is to obtain a comprehensive performance evaluation of the sea trial effect of the BOP group and its control system, and it is expected to achieve a higher comprehensive performance. In the criterion layer, based on the sea trial content of the BOP group and its control system, combined with the characteristics of the BOP group and its control system itself, the criterion layer of the BOP group and its control system is subdivided into the hoisting and transportation and disassembly of the equipment on the platform, the assembly and disassembly of the equipment on the platform, the functionality and reliability of the storage position, the installation and disassembly of the storage position between the wellhead, the functionality and reliability of the initial installation of the wellhead, and the functionality and reliability during the operation period. In the indicator layer, the hoisting and transportation and disassembly of the equipment on the entire platform mainly refer to the 20k BOP group, pipelines, and hydraulic control systems. In terms of the assembly and disassembly of the equipment on the platform, it can be subdivided into the 20k BOP group and pipelines, and the functionality and reliability of the storage position can be subdivided into the BOP group and its control system, annular BOP, upper double gate BOP, throttling and killing valve group, and lower double gate BOP. Here, it is to check whether its functions meet the requirements. After the storage position test is completed, it needs to be moved to the wellhead and the necessary equipment needs to be assembled for functional testing during the operation period. The storage is located at the wellhead. The installation and disassembly can be divided into disassembling all pipelines on the blowout preventer, hoisting the blowout preventer group and its configuration equipment to the wellhead by trussing, connecting the blowout preventer group and its configuration equipment to the wellhead, and installing all control pipelines and throttling and well-pressurizing pipelines on the blowout preventer. Then the functionality and reliability of the initial installation of the wellhead need to be considered, which is subdivided here into the integrity of the control system hydraulic circuit and the fully sealed shear gate. Finally, the functionality and reliability of the operation period set the well control device installation inspection, well control device installation management and well control device pressure testing as the indicator layer. In summary, the comprehensive evaluation index system for the sea trial effect of the blowout preventer group and its control system is as follows Figure 2 As shown in Figure 3, the evaluation index system comprehensively considers the various performances of the BOP group and its control system, and each index is representative to a certain extent.

[0034] The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation process of the sea trial effect of the BOP group and its control system based on the game theory combination weighting of the triangular fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and the CRITIC method is as follows: Figure 3 The specific steps are as follows: According to the actual situation of the sea trial of the blowout preventer group and its control system, six dimensions of criteria and corresponding underlying indicators are established from hoisting to assembly and then to functional reliability. According to the sea trial effect target layer, criterion layer and indicator layer, a comprehensive evaluation index system for the sea trial effect of the blowout preventer group and its control system is constructed. Based on the comprehensive evaluation index system of the sea trial effect, the triangular fuzzy hierarchical analysis method is used to calculate the subjective weight of the sea trial effect index. Based on the comprehensive evaluation index system of the sea trial effect, the CRITIC method is used to calculate the objective weight of the sea trial effect index. Using the game theory method, the subjective and objective weights of each sea trial effect index are integrated to calculate the optimal combination weight of each index. Using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, the qualitative indicators of the sea trial are converted into quantitative indicators for scientific and comprehensive comprehensive evaluation.

[0035] The analytic hierarchy process is a subjective weighting method and a multi-criteria decision analysis method that integrates qualitative weighting and quantitative weighting. However, in terms of constructing the judgment matrix, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) only compares each indicator in the evaluation system and uses a simple scaling method to assign values. The fuzzy analytic hierarchy process combines fuzzy mathematics theory with the traditional analytic hierarchy process, and fully considers the fuzziness and subjectivity of the evaluation of the sea trial effect of the ultra-high temperature and high pressure blowout preventer group and its control system. In order to accurately and objectively reflect the recognition results of the correspondence between language terms and numerical values, the present invention combines the triangular fuzzy number theory with the traditional analytic hierarchy process to construct a triangular fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (TFAHP), and uses the corresponding judgment scale (see Table 1) to compare and assign values ​​between each level of indicators, and calculate the weights of each indicator of the sea trial effect, so as to improve the reliability of the evaluation of the sea trial effect. The analytic hierarchy process based on triangular fuzzy numbers can take into account the fuzziness of experts in evaluating indicators, transform subjective evaluation problems into quantitative problems, and make the evaluation results more scientific and reasonable under the multi-level and multi-indicator indicator system.

[0036] Table 1 Linguistic terms and their corresponding triangular fuzzy numbers ; Triangular fuzzy numbers can convert fuzzy uncertain linguistic variables in the process of sea trial effect evaluation into numerical values ​​with membership functions ranging from 0 to 1, where 0 represents an absolutely impossible or wrong statement and 1 represents an absolutely possible or correct statement. Triangular fuzzy numbers consist of three real numbers.

[0037] Objective weighting is a method of calculating weights by combining actual sample data with actual quantitative standards. In order to weaken the subjectivity of the TFAHP method in the judgment matrix, make full use of the objective attributes of the data itself, and improve the accuracy of the results, the CRITIC method is used to calculate the indicator weights, and the two methods are combined to obtain the comprehensive weights of the indicators. The calculation is more objective and reasonable. Therefore, the present invention uses the CRITIC method for objective weighting.

[0038] The triangular fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (TFAHP) and CRITIC method respectively calculate the subjective and objective weights of the sea trial effect indicators. The blowout preventer group and its control system need to integrate the subjective and objective weights to obtain the final combined weights of different indicators. The game theory combined weighting method is based on the idea of ​​game theory (GT). By minimizing the deviation, it coordinates the deviations between the weights obtained by different weighting methods, improves the accuracy of the comprehensive weight, and makes the comprehensive weighting more reasonable.

[0039] According to the combined weight results obtained by the game theory combined weighting method, combined with the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, a game theory combined weighting-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model is constructed. The model uses the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to determine the level of each indicator of the blowout preventer group and its control system according to the maximum membership principle, and obtains the score of the blowout preventer group and its control system through defuzzification to achieve the final evaluation.

[0040] The value of the consistency index RI mainly refers to the consistency ratio table shown in Table 2, and its value is related to the order n of the judgment matrix.

[0041] Table 2 Average random consistency index RI value ; In the sea trial effect evaluation index system of the blowout preventer group and its control system, most of the indicators are relatively abstract and there is no specific quantitative calculation numerical representation. Therefore, the present invention decomposes the degree of influence of the indicators and uses the assignment method to assign the sea trial effect evaluation set to 5, 4, 3, 2, and 1 respectively. The specific standards are shown in Table 3. First, 15 experts were invited to score the 6 first-level indicators and 19 second-level indicators using the assignment method. The 15 collected assignment data were sorted out, and a judgment matrix was constructed to calculate the weight of each evaluation indicator. The final consistency ratios all satisfied CR<0.1, and passed the consistency test, and the results were reliable. Among them, the comprehensive weight of each indicator layer in the table The value can be calculated by multiplying the weight coefficient of the indicator layer where it is located by the weight coefficient of the corresponding criterion layer, and the sum of the weight values ​​of all indicator layers and the target layer is 1, as shown in Table 4.

[0042] Table 3 Quantitative standards ; Table 4 Weights of indicators at each level ; Compare the individual weights of the 19 indicators at each criterion level to more clearly understand the importance of each indicator, as follows: Figure 4 shown.

[0043] In determining the objective weights using the CRITIC method, 15 experts were first invited to score the 6 first-level indicators and 19 second-level indicators using the scaling method. The 15 assigned data collected were sorted, a judgment matrix was constructed, and the weights of each evaluation indicator were calculated. The results were reliable. The scoring results of the 15 experts were sorted, summarized and normalized, and the objective weights of the corresponding indicators were calculated using the CRITIC method. The results are shown in Table 5.

[0044] Table 5 Objective weight values ​​of CRITIC indicators ; In order to avoid the shortcomings of a single weighting method, the subjective weight and objective weight calculated above are used as the two sides of the game, and the optimal combined weight is obtained through game theory calculation to determine the TFAHP-CRITIC comprehensive weight , the detailed calculation results are shown in Table 6.

[0045] Table 6 Comparison of weights before and after game theory combination weighting ; The calculation results of the three weights of the 19 indicators are compared in the form of a bar chart and a line chart to clearly reflect the distribution of the weights of the three indicators. Figure 5 As shown in the figure, the weights of the evaluation indicators of the BOP group and its control system obtained by TFAHP and CRITIC are quite different. The calculated weight curve is basically between the subjective weight of TFAHP and the objective weight curve of CRITIC, achieving the purpose of balance and making the comprehensive weight more accurate.

[0046] The calculation results of the three weights of the six criteria layers are compared in the form of a bar chart, and the proportion of different criteria layers is better revealed. Figure 6 As shown in the figure, the game theory combined weighting avoids the possible limitations of a single weighting method, flexibly solves these problems, provides a more comprehensive weight distribution, and ultimately improves the accuracy of the evaluation, making the evaluation results closer to the actual situation and in line with the preset goals.

[0047] Based on the comprehensive weight of the indicators obtained by game theory combination weighting, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to comprehensively evaluate the sea trial effect of the blowout preventer group and its control system. The present invention decomposes the influence degree of the indicators and divides them into 5 levels [90, 100], [80, 90), [70, 80), [60, 70), [0, 60) in the form of a percentage system according to excellent, good, medium, poor, and unqualified, as shown in Table 6, and invites 10 experts in this field to score the 19 indicators as shown in Table 7.

[0048] Table 7 Evaluation level ; The evaluation process is explained using the indicator layer "20k BOP group, pipeline, and hydraulic control system" as an example.

[0049] Extracting the index membership from the expert scoring results to construct the evaluation matrix .

[0050] ; Then extract the above indicator weights W from Table 4 1 .

[0051] ; Use point multiplication to convert the evaluation matrix B i With the weight vector W i Calculate and get the first-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation vector: ; R 1 It is not only the evaluation result of the target layer "20k BOP group, pipeline, hydraulic control system", but also the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation matrix of the indicator layer "hoisting and transportability of equipment on the platform". Similarly, the remaining six criterion layers such as "assembly and disassembly of equipment on the platform" can be calculated, so as to establish a sea trial effect evaluation matrix to conduct a comprehensive evaluation of the blowout preventer group and its control system.

[0052] The second-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation vector can be obtained from the first-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation vector, that is, the evaluation matrix of the sea trial effect of the BOP group and its control system: ; The weight vectors of each key equipment criterion layer can be obtained from the key equipment sea trial index weight table: ; By converting the weight vectors of indicators at each criterion layer of key equipment and the evaluation matrix into a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model, we can obtain the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation vector of the sea trial effect of key equipment: ; Let the evaluation vector be Finally, the percentage evaluation score of the sea trial of the ultra-high temperature and high pressure blowout preventer group and its control system was calculated: ; The corresponding evaluation level of the BOP group and its control system is "good", indicating that the comprehensive performance of the BOP group and its control system is good. In addition, through the evaluation of this evaluation system, the overall single factor performance of the BOP group and its control system or the single performance of each component can also be obtained, as shown in Table 8 and Figure 7 According to the conclusion of the sea trial, targeted improvements can be made to the performance of a single criterion of the components or the BOP group and its control system as a whole with low scores, so as to improve the overall performance of the BOP group and its control system.

[0053] Table 8 Comprehensive scores and ratings of the sea trials of the BOP group and its control system ; The present invention is based on the structure and function of the ultra-high temperature and high pressure blowout preventer group and its control system. According to the specific sea trial process, the sea trial is divided into six criteria, namely, the hoisting and transportability and disassembly of the equipment on the platform, the assembly and disassembly of the equipment on the platform, the functionality and reliability of the storage position, the displacement installation and disassembly of the storage position between the wellhead, the functionality and reliability of the initial installation of the wellhead, and the functionality and reliability of the operation period, and the corresponding 19 indicators. The blowout preventer group and its control system sea trial effect evaluation index system consisting of the target layer, the criterion layer, and the indicator layer is constructed. Game theory is adopted to combine and weight the subjective and objective weights obtained by the triangular fuzzy hierarchical analysis method and the CRITIC method, and the sea trial qualitative indicators are converted into quantitative indicators through the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. A comprehensive evaluation model for the blowout preventer group and its control system is established, and the sea trial of the blowout preventer group and its control system is comprehensively and scientifically evaluated, so that the evaluation results can improve the single performance of the blowout preventer group and its control system in a targeted manner and improve the research and development capabilities. There are many factors affecting the sea trial of the blowout preventer group and its control system, which require large-scale equipment such as transport ships, loading docks and drilling platforms. At the same time, the test sea conditions also need to be considered. The present invention analyzes and judges the performance evaluation of the blowout preventer group and its control system after the sea trial according to the evaluation results, points out the aspects that need to be improved in the blowout preventer group and its control system, and formulates improvement implementation measures, so as to make technical preparations for actual engineering application.

[0054] The above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention, rather than to limit the same. Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the aforementioned embodiments, a person skilled in the art should understand that the technical solutions described in the aforementioned embodiments may still be modified, or some or all of the technical features may be replaced by equivalents, and these modifications or replacements do not cause the essence of the corresponding technical solutions to deviate from the scope of the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for evaluating the sea trial effect of a blowout preventer based on game theory combined weighting and fuzzy evaluation, characterized in that: include: S1. Construct a model for evaluating the sea trial effect of BOP; S2. Calculate subjective weights through triangular fuzzy analytic hierarchy process; S3. Objective weight calculation is performed through the CRITIC objective weighting method; S4. Carry out game theory subjective and objective combination weighting; S5. Perform fuzzy comprehensive evaluation on the results of game theory subjective and objective combined weighting to obtain the evaluation results of the sea trial effect of the blowout preventer.

2. The method for evaluating the sea trial effect of a blowout preventer based on game theory combined weighting and fuzzy evaluation according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The evaluation model of BOP sea trial effect includes target layer, criterion layer and index layer; The target layer is the evaluation of the sea trial effect of the blowout preventer, and the criterion layer includes criteria in six dimensions, and the criteria in each dimension are provided with bottom-level indicators in the indicator layer.

3. The method for evaluating the sea trial effect of a blowout preventer based on game theory combined weighting and fuzzy evaluation according to claim 2 is characterized in that: The subjective weight calculation is carried out through the triangular fuzzy hierarchical analysis subjective weighting method, including S2.

1. Constructing the fuzzy judgment matrix , S2.

2. Calculate the probability and S2.

3. Calculate the subjective weight; S2.1 includes: S2.1.

1. Compare the data of the quasi-measurement layer and the index layer pairwise to obtain the triangular fuzzy number : ； In the formula, , and They represent the lower, median and upper values ​​of the triangular fuzzy number respectively. For the judgment results of multiple experts, the average value is taken as the triangular fuzzy number; S2.1.

2. All the obtained triangular fuzzy numbers Arrangement Order Matrix : ； In the formula, To pass the indicator and indicators What you get ; S2.1.

3. Yes To perform a consistency check: ； In the formula, is the consistency ratio, is the maximum eigenvalue of the fuzzy judgment matrix, is the order of the fuzzy judgment matrix, is the random consistency indicator, When , the fuzzy judgment matrix passes the consistency test.

4. The method for evaluating the sea trial effect of a blowout preventer based on game theory combined weighting and fuzzy evaluation according to claim 3 is characterized in that: S2.2 includes Layer Indicators The comprehensive fuzzy value of for: ； In the formula, It is Layer , ; calculate Possibility : ； In the formula, For the Layer Indicators The comprehensive fuzzy value of , yes The next and median value of , yes The median and previous value.

5. The method for evaluating the sea trial effect of a blowout preventer based on game theory combined weighting and fuzzy evaluation according to claim 4 is characterized in that: S2.3 includes: ； In the formula, Representation and indicators and indicators Indicators that are not equal , is the first Layer Indicators The comprehensive fuzzy value of ； In the formula, It is Layer Indicators The final weight of .

6. The method for evaluating the sea trial effect of a blowout preventer based on game theory combined weighting and fuzzy evaluation according to claim 5 is characterized in that: Objective weight calculation through CRITIC objective weighting method includes S3.

1. standardization of indicators, S3.

2. calculation of matrix standard number and correlation coefficient and S3.

3. calculation of objective weight; S3.1 includes the use of forward and reverse processing to non-dimensionalize the underlying indicators, and forward processing is performed on indicators with larger values ​​and more accuracy: ； For indicators with smaller values, the more accurate they are, the reverse processing is performed: ； In the formula, After processing The evaluation results indicators, It is indicators.

7. The method for evaluating the sea trial effect of a blowout preventer based on game theory combined weighting and fuzzy evaluation according to claim 6 is characterized in that: S3.2 includes the matrix standard number: ； In the formula, It is The matrix standard number of indicators, is the total number of dimensions, It is the standard matrix Line The value of the column, It is the standard matrix The value of the column; Correlation coefficient for: ； In the formula, It is the standard matrix The value of the row, It is The matrix standard number of evaluation results; S3.3 includes the following: The amount of information contained in an indicator is : ； The first The proportion of the information content of each indicator to the total information content is taken as the The objective weight of the indicator : 。 8. The method for evaluating the sea trial effect of a blowout preventer based on game theory combined weighting and fuzzy evaluation according to claim 7 is characterized in that: The subjective and objective combination weighting method of game theory includes S4.

1. obtaining weight vector, S4.

2. optimizing linear combination coefficients and S4.

3. obtaining combination weight; S4.1 includes constructing a basic weight set : ； In the formula, To determine the number of weighting methods, record Any linear combination of vectors is: ； In the formula, is the weight vector, is the linear combination coefficient.

9. The method for evaluating the sea trial effect of a blowout preventer based on game theory combined weighting and fuzzy evaluation according to claim 8 is characterized in that: S4.2 includes the optimization of the linear combination coefficients: ； In the formula, is the optimization target of the linear combination coefficients; Determine the linear differential equations that meet the first-order derivative conditions of the linear combination coefficient optimization conditions, and obtain the linear combination coefficients : ； S4.3 includes combined weights for: ； In the formula, After normalization .

10. The method for evaluating the sea trial effect of a blowout preventer based on game theory combined weighting and fuzzy evaluation according to claim 9 is characterized in that: S5 includes the set of factors that determine the evaluation object and Commentary : ； ； In the formula, It affects the overall evaluation The evaluation results of the evaluation object constitute the comment set. ; right A comprehensive evaluation of the factors was conducted to obtain A fuzzy evaluation set, Fuzzy evaluation sets form a fuzzy relation matrix : ； In the formula, The factor concentration Factors in the review set The degree of membership of each level; The combined weights of the factors Perform fuzzy synthesis with the fuzzy relationship matrix to obtain the result vector of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation : ； ； In the formula, The first The degree of membership of an indicator; Get the first The comprehensive score of the indicators : 。

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