Electric power system operation risk assessment method and system

Abstract

The invention discloses an electric power system operation risk assessment method and system, and belongs to the technical field of electric power system operation risk assessment. The platform end is managed and used by a platform party and comprises a technical analysis module; the technical analysis module is used for performing technical analysis on the operation risk of the power system and determining a modular evaluation unit corresponding to each reference evaluation risk; setting evaluation information of each modular evaluation unit, integrating each evaluation information into an evaluation browsing table, and sending the evaluation browsing table to each user side; the user side comprises an information display module, an acquisition module and an evaluation module; a user determines each modular evaluation unit of the application according to the information display module; the acquisition module is used for performing real-time data acquisition on the power system to obtain unit analysis data of each modular evaluation unit; and the evaluation module is used for evaluating the analysis data of each unit through each modular evaluation unit to obtain a risk evaluation result of each modular evaluation unit.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention belongs to the technical field of power system operation risk assessment, and specifically relates to a power system operation risk assessment method and system. Background Art

[0002] In the power industry, power system operation risk assessment has always been a key link in ensuring the safe and stable operation of the power grid. With the continuous expansion of the scale of the power system and the continuous emergence of new energy technologies, the risks faced by the power system are becoming increasingly complex and diverse. Traditional power risk assessment technology mainly relies on manual experience judgment and simple mathematical models. These methods are unable to cope with large-scale and highly complex power system data, and it is difficult to comprehensively and accurately assess the various risks that may be encountered in the operation of the power system.

[0003] Due to the increase in scale, the increase in labor costs, the low labor efficiency and other reasons, the assessment of power system operation risks needs to be carried out intelligently through intelligent technology. However, because the risks faced by the power system are becoming increasingly complex and diversified, the existing risk assessment system is fixed and cannot adapt to the rapid development of the power system and the needs of risk assessment. Based on this, in order to realize the intelligent risk assessment of the power system, the present invention provides a power system operation risk assessment method and system. Summary of the invention

[0004] In order to solve the problems existing in the above-mentioned solutions, the present invention provides a method and system for evaluating the operation risk of a power system.

[0005] The purpose of the present invention can be achieved through the following technical solutions:

[0006] A power system operation risk assessment system, including a user end and a platform end;

[0007] The platform end is managed and used by the platform party, including the technical analysis module;

[0008] The technical analysis module is used to perform technical analysis on the operating risks of the power system, determine the modular assessment units corresponding to each benchmark operating risk and each benchmark assessment risk; set the assessment information of each modular assessment unit, integrate the assessment information into an assessment browsing table, and send the assessment browsing table to each user end.

[0009] Furthermore, the methods for technical analysis of the operational risks of the power system include:

[0010] Determine various operating risks based on historical operating data of the power system; connect to various information channels, obtain corresponding technical information in real time through each of the information channels, and determine various risk assessment technologies and technical features corresponding to the risk assessment technologies based on each of the technical information, wherein the technical features are composed of various collection items and technical item features;

[0011] Classify each of the operational risks according to the technical characteristics to obtain each benchmark operational risk and potential operational risk; the benchmark operational risk is an operational risk that can be intelligently risk assessed;

[0012] Obtain a priority sequence for each benchmark operation risk, wherein the priority sequence is a priority ranking of each candidate evaluation technology corresponding to the benchmark operation risk; the platform sets various application evaluation methods according to the priority sequence of each benchmark operation risk; and sets corresponding modular evaluation units according to each application evaluation method.

[0013] Furthermore, the method of classifying each operational risk according to each technical feature includes:

[0014] Performing application evaluation on each of the risk assessment technologies according to the technical features, determining whether each of the risk assessment technologies meets the application evaluation criteria, and marking each of the risk assessment technologies that meets the application evaluation criteria as a candidate evaluation technology;

[0015] Allocating each of the candidate evaluation technologies to a corresponding operation risk; identifying each of the candidate evaluation technologies corresponding to each of the operation risks, and sorting each of the candidate evaluation technologies according to priority to obtain a priority sequence;

[0016] The operation risk with the to-be-selected evaluation technology is marked as a baseline operation risk; and the operation risk that is not a baseline operation risk is marked as a potential operation risk.

[0017] Furthermore, the method for determining whether each risk assessment technology meets the application assessment criteria includes:

[0018] The platform sets the evaluation criteria and determines the technical item standards corresponding to each technical item based on the application evaluation criteria;

[0019] Compare the standards of each technical item with the technical features of each risk assessment technology to determine the standard deviation value of each technical item; estimate the implementation cost of each risk assessment technology to obtain an estimated cost;

[0020] According to the formula Calculate the application qualification value of each of the risk assessment techniques;

[0021] Wherein: PG is the application qualification value; i represents the corresponding technical item, i=1, 2, ..., n, and n is a positive integer; PCi represents the standard deviation value of the corresponding technical item; U{PCi}≥0 means that the standard deviation values ​​of all technical items are not less than 0; λi represents the weight coefficient of the corresponding technical item; CB is the estimated cost; X1 is the threshold value, which is determined according to the application evaluation standard;

[0022] Each of the risk assessment technologies with the application qualification value of 1 is regarded as satisfying the application assessment standard.

[0023] The user terminal includes an information display module, a collection module and an evaluation module;

[0024] The information display module is used to display various received data and identify the received evaluation browsing table, and the user determines each modular evaluation unit of the application according to the evaluation browsing table.

[0025] The acquisition module is used to perform real-time data acquisition on the power system, obtain unit analysis data corresponding to each modular evaluation unit, and send each unit analysis data to each modular evaluation unit.

[0026] Furthermore, the data collection method includes:

[0027] Identify each modular evaluation unit of the evaluation module application, identify each collection item corresponding to each modular evaluation unit, and set a corresponding collection device according to each collection item;

[0028] Real-time data collection is performed through each of the acquisition devices to obtain unit collection data corresponding to each of the acquisition items, and data preprocessing is performed on each of the unit collection data; each of the unit collection data is classified according to each of the modular evaluation units to obtain unit analysis data corresponding to each of the modular evaluation units.

[0029] The evaluation module is used to connect to each of the modular evaluation units, evaluate the received analysis data of each of the units through each of the modular evaluation units, and obtain risk evaluation results of the benchmark operation risks corresponding to each of the modular evaluation units.

[0030] Furthermore, the user terminal further includes a generation analysis module, which is used to analyze the evaluation browsing table, identify each modular evaluation unit of the user application, and mark it as a modular application unit; obtain the priority sequence corresponding to the modular application unit according to the evaluation browsing table, identify each modular evaluation unit corresponding to the non-modular application unit in the priority sequence, and mark it as a modular reference unit;

[0031] Identify the standard deviation value of each technical item of the modular application unit and the modular reference unit and the weight coefficient of each technical item; set the corresponding risk adjustment coefficient for the user;

[0032] According to the formula Calculating the reference value of each modular reference unit;

[0033] Where: PK is the reference value; i represents the corresponding technical item, i = 1, 2, ..., n, n is a positive integer; PCi represents the standard deviation value of the corresponding technical item; λi represents the weight coefficient of the corresponding technical item; DB is the application cost of the modular reference unit; η is the risk adjustment coefficient;

[0034] When the reference value is greater than the threshold value X2, an application prompt is given to the user, and the modular reference unit with the reference value greater than the threshold value X2 is displayed to the user;

[0035] When no reference value is greater than the threshold value X2, no corresponding operation is performed.

[0036] Furthermore, the risk adjustment coefficient ranges from [0, 1].

[0037] Compared with the prior art, the present invention has the following beneficial effects:

[0038] The present invention can more accurately identify, analyze and evaluate various risks that the power system may face during operation by setting up corresponding modular assessment units for each power risk. This modular design enables each assessment unit to focus on its specific risk area, thereby improving the accuracy and reliability of the assessment.

[0039] As technology is updated, the risks faced by the power system are also constantly changing. The present invention uses modular design to enable the assessment system to be easily replaced or upgraded as technology is updated. When new power risks emerge or existing assessment technologies need to be improved, only the corresponding modular assessment units need to be adjusted or replaced without large-scale reconstruction of the entire system. This flexibility ensures that the assessment system can continue to adapt to the development needs of the power system.

[0040] Traditional power risk assessment systems often require frequent maintenance and upgrades due to technological updates, which increases the operating cost of the system. However, the present invention decomposes the assessment system into multiple independent assessment units through modular design, so that each unit can be maintained and upgraded independently. This not only reduces the overall maintenance cost of the system, but also improves the maintainability and scalability of the system.

[0041] The modular design of the present invention not only facilitates the integration of existing technologies, but also provides a platform for the introduction and innovation of new technologies. By continuously adding and optimizing modular assessment units, the present invention can continuously promote the innovation and development of power risk assessment technology and provide more powerful technical support for the safe and stable operation of the power system. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0042] In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings required for use in the embodiments or the description of the prior art will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the drawings described below are only some embodiments of the present invention. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without paying creative work.

[0043] Figure 1 This is a principle block diagram of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0044] The technical solution of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below in conjunction with the embodiments. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0045] like Figure 1 As shown, a power system operation risk assessment system includes a user end and a platform end;

[0046] The platform end is managed and used by the platform party, and includes a technical analysis module, which is used to perform technical analysis on the operation risks of the power system, and determine various operation risks according to the historical operation data of the power system, such as various operation risks caused by natural disasters, equipment failures, human errors, etc.

[0047] The platform determines the information channels related to the assessment technology of the power system operation risk, connects with each information channel, and obtains the technical information corresponding to each information channel in real time. The technical information refers to the risk assessment technical information related to each operation risk assessment. According to the obtained technical information, each risk assessment technology and the technical characteristics corresponding to the corresponding risk assessment technology are determined. The technical characteristics include its assessment accuracy, stability, required analysis parameters, timeliness and other related characteristics. It can be summarized as mainly composed of data corresponding to collection items and technical items. Collection items are used to represent the required collection data; technical items are used to represent data for evaluating the pros and cons of technology, such as technical items such as assessment accuracy, stability, timeliness, etc.; conduct application evaluation on each risk assessment technology, mark each risk assessment technology that meets the application evaluation criteria as a candidate evaluation technology; and assign each candidate evaluation technology to the corresponding operation risk;

[0048] Identify the candidate assessment technologies corresponding to each operational risk, sort the candidate assessment technologies according to their priority, and obtain a priority sequence; the priority can be determined based on the degree to which it is superior to the application standard, such as Alternatively, the priority may be determined directly according to the size of the application qualification value, or based on other existing technologies;

[0049] The operating risks with the candidate assessment technology are marked as the baseline operating risks; other operating risks that are not the baseline operating risks are marked as potential operating risks; that is, the baseline operating risks can be intelligently assessed based on the corresponding candidate assessment technology;

[0050] The platform sets up various application evaluation methods for different situations according to the priority sequence of each benchmark operation risk. For example, according to the same candidate evaluation technology, multiple application evaluation methods suitable for different power systems can be set, or the same power system can correspond to application evaluation methods corresponding to multiple candidate evaluation technologies. The specific setting is based on the needs of the platform; according to each application evaluation method, a corresponding modular evaluation unit is set, and the modular evaluation unit can be replaced to evaluate the corresponding benchmark operation risk; the evaluation information of each modular evaluation unit is set, and the evaluation information is used to summarize the advantages and disadvantages of the modular evaluation unit; the evaluation information of each modular evaluation unit is integrated into an evaluation browsing table, and the evaluation browsing table is displayed in real time.

[0051] In one embodiment, the method of conducting application evaluation on each risk assessment technology is to evaluate it based on existing technology, and the platform presets corresponding application evaluation standards, analyzes each technical feature through the application evaluation standards, and determines whether it meets the application evaluation standards.

[0052] In one embodiment, the method for performing application evaluation on each risk assessment technology is:

[0053] The platform sets the minimum requirement standards and weight coefficients for each technical item, and marks the minimum requirement standards as technical item standards;

[0054] Compare the technical features of the risk assessment technology according to the standards of each technical item to determine the standard deviation degree corresponding to each technical item. If the corresponding technical item feature of the risk assessment technology is lower than 10% of the technical item standard, the standard deviation degree is -0.1; if the corresponding technical item feature of the risk assessment technology is higher than 10% of the technical item standard, the standard deviation degree is 0.1. The corresponding deviation degree can be determined by the existing method and marked as the standard deviation value;

[0055] Estimate the implementation cost of each risk assessment technology and obtain the corresponding estimated cost;

[0056] According to the formula Calculate the application qualification value of each risk assessment technology;

[0057] In the formula: PG is the application qualification value; i represents the corresponding technical item, i=1, 2, ..., n, n is a positive integer; PCi represents the standard deviation value of the corresponding technical item; U{PCi}≥0 means that the standard deviation values ​​of all technical items are not less than 0; λi represents the weight coefficient of the corresponding technical item; CB is the estimated cost; X1 is the threshold value, which is set by the platform, and is specifically set by technical personnel in this field according to actual conditions or obtained by large-scale data simulation.

[0058] A risk assessment technique with an application qualification value of 1 is considered to have met the application assessment criteria.

[0059] The user terminal is used by users and includes an information display module, a collection module, an evaluation module,

[0060] The information display module is used to display various received data, identify the received evaluation browsing table, and the user communicates with the platform according to the evaluation browsing table to determine the modular evaluation units applied by the user.

[0061] The acquisition module is used to perform real-time data acquisition on the power system, identify the modular evaluation units applied by the evaluation module, identify the acquisition items corresponding to the modular evaluation units, and set corresponding acquisition devices according to the acquisition items; perform real-time data acquisition through each acquisition device, obtain the acquisition data corresponding to each acquisition item, mark it as unit acquisition data, and perform data preprocessing on the acquisition data of each unit so that it can be used for analysis by the corresponding modular evaluation unit, such as data cleaning, data integration, data transformation, data reduction, etc.; classify the acquisition data of each unit according to the corresponding modular evaluation unit to form unit analysis data corresponding to each modular evaluation unit.

[0062] The evaluation module is used to perform modular settings based on existing technologies, so that each modular evaluation unit can be set up and replaced later; it is used to control each modular evaluation unit, such as preparation and adjustment during replacement and addition, and subsequent replacement and addition, and analyze the received unit analysis data to obtain risk assessment results for corresponding benchmark operating risks.

[0063] In one embodiment, due to the professionalism of the user and other issues, it may be difficult for the user to timely determine the modular evaluation unit suitable for replacement or supplementation from the evaluation browsing table in some cases. Therefore, in this embodiment, the user terminal also includes a generation analysis module, which is used to analyze the evaluation browsing table, identify each modular evaluation unit applied by the user, and mark it as a modular application unit; obtain the priority sequence corresponding to the modular application unit, identify each modular evaluation unit corresponding to the non-modular application unit in the priority sequence, and mark it as a modular reference unit;

[0064] Identify the standard deviation value of each technical item and the weight coefficient of each technical item of the modular application unit and the modular reference unit respectively;

[0065] Set corresponding risk adjustment factors for users;

[0066] According to the formula Calculating the reference value of each modular reference unit;

[0067] Where: PK is the reference value; i represents the corresponding technical item, i = 1, 2, ..., n, n is a positive integer; PCi represents the standard deviation value of the corresponding technical item; λi represents the weight coefficient of the corresponding technical item; DB is the application cost of the modular reference unit; η is the risk adjustment coefficient;

[0068] When a reference value is greater than the threshold value X2, an application prompt is given to the user, and the modular reference unit with a reference value greater than the threshold value X2 is displayed to the user; the threshold value X2 is set according to user needs, that is, it needs to meet the user's requirements; or an initial value is set by the platform, and the user adjusts it later.

[0069] When no reference value is greater than the threshold value X2, no corresponding operation is performed.

[0070] In one embodiment, the user's risk adjustment coefficient can be determined based on existing technologies; it can also be set by the user himself; for example, the platform sets the risk adjustment coefficient corresponding to each risk situation according to existing risk assessment methods, and then performs corresponding matching.

[0071] In one embodiment, for the risk adjustment coefficient, each user can be classified according to the scale, region, climate environment, etc. of the power system, and the classification can be based on the existing clustering algorithm, such as classification according to the K-means algorithm, and the required number of risk types, that is, the K value, is preset, and then clustering is performed according to the scale, region, climate environment, etc. of the power system; the corresponding risk adjustment coefficient is set according to the emphasis of different risks on cost, that is, the higher the risk, the lower the impact of cost, and the smaller the risk adjustment coefficient, the minimum is 0 and the maximum is 1.

[0072] The above formulas are all calculated by removing dimensions and taking numerical values. The formula is a formula that is closest to the actual situation obtained by collecting a large amount of data and performing software simulation. The preset parameters and preset thresholds in the formula are set by technical personnel in this field according to actual conditions or obtained by simulating a large amount of data.

[0073] The above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical method of the present invention rather than to limit it. Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the preferred embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that the technical method of the present invention may be modified or replaced by equivalents without departing from the spirit and scope of the technical method of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method and system for assessing power system operation risk, characterized in that: Including user side and platform side; The platform end is managed and used by the platform party, including the technical analysis module; The technical analysis module is used to perform technical analysis on the operation risk of the power system and determine each benchmark operation risk and the modular assessment unit corresponding to each benchmark assessment risk; Setting evaluation information of each modular evaluation unit, integrating each evaluation information into an evaluation browsing table, and sending the evaluation browsing table to each user terminal; The user terminal includes an information display module, a collection module and an evaluation module; The information display module is used to display various received data, identify the received evaluation browsing table, and the user determines each modular evaluation unit of the application according to the evaluation browsing table; The acquisition module is used to collect real-time data of the power system and obtain unit analysis data of each modular evaluation unit corresponding to the evaluation module; Sending the analysis data of each of the units to each of the modular evaluation units; The evaluation module is used to connect to each of the modular evaluation units, evaluate the received analysis data of each of the units through each of the modular evaluation units, and obtain risk evaluation results of the benchmark operation risks corresponding to each of the modular evaluation units.

2. A method and system for assessing power system operation risk according to claim 1, characterized in that: Methods for technical analysis of power system operation risks include: Determine various operating risks based on historical operating data of the power system; connect to various information channels, obtain corresponding technical information in real time through each of the information channels, and determine various risk assessment technologies and technical features corresponding to the risk assessment technologies based on each of the technical information, wherein the technical features are composed of various collection items and technical item features; Classify each of the operational risks according to the technical characteristics to obtain each benchmark operational risk and potential operational risk; the benchmark operational risk is an operational risk that can be intelligently risk assessed; Obtain a priority sequence for each benchmark operation risk, wherein the priority sequence is a priority ranking of each candidate evaluation technology corresponding to the benchmark operation risk; the platform sets various application evaluation methods according to the priority sequence of each benchmark operation risk; and sets corresponding modular evaluation units according to each application evaluation method.

3. A method and system for assessing power system operation risk according to claim 2, characterized in that: Methods for classifying various operational risks according to their technical characteristics include: Performing application evaluation on each of the risk assessment technologies according to the technical features, determining whether each of the risk assessment technologies meets the application evaluation criteria, and marking each of the risk assessment technologies that meets the application evaluation criteria as a candidate evaluation technology; Allocating each of the candidate evaluation technologies to a corresponding operation risk; identifying each of the candidate evaluation technologies corresponding to each of the operation risks, and sorting each of the candidate evaluation technologies according to priority to obtain a priority sequence; The operation risk with the to-be-selected evaluation technology is marked as a baseline operation risk; and the operation risk that is not a baseline operation risk is marked as a potential operation risk.

4. A method and system for assessing power system operation risk according to claim 3, characterized in that: Methods for determining whether each risk assessment technique meets the application assessment criteria include: The platform sets the evaluation criteria and determines the technical item standards corresponding to each technical item based on the application evaluation criteria; Compare the standards of each technical item with the technical features of each risk assessment technology to determine the standard deviation value of each technical item; estimate the implementation cost of each risk assessment technology to obtain an estimated cost; According to the formula Calculate the application qualification value of each of the risk assessment techniques; Wherein: PG is the application qualification value; i represents the corresponding technical item, i=1, 2, ..., n, and n is a positive integer; PCi represents the standard deviation value of the corresponding technical item; U{PCi}≥0 means that the standard deviation values ​​of all technical items are not less than 0; λi represents the weight coefficient of the corresponding technical item; CB is the estimated cost; X1 is the threshold value, which is determined according to the application evaluation standard; Each of the risk assessment technologies with the application qualification value of 1 is regarded as satisfying the application assessment standard.

5. A method and system for assessing power system operation risk according to claim 1, characterized in that: Data collection methods include: Identify each modular evaluation unit of the evaluation module application, identify each collection item corresponding to each modular evaluation unit, and set a corresponding collection device according to each collection item; Real-time data collection is performed through each of the acquisition devices to obtain unit collection data corresponding to each of the acquisition items, and data preprocessing is performed on each of the unit collection data; each of the unit collection data is classified according to each of the modular evaluation units to obtain unit analysis data corresponding to each of the modular evaluation units.

6. A method and system for assessing power system operation risk according to claim 1, characterized in that: The user terminal also includes a generation analysis module, which is used to analyze the evaluation browsing table, identify each modular evaluation unit of the user application, and mark it as a modular application unit; obtain the priority sequence corresponding to the modular application unit according to the evaluation browsing table, identify each modular evaluation unit corresponding to the non-modular application unit in the priority sequence, and mark it as a modular reference unit; Identify the standard deviation value of each technical item of the modular application unit and the modular reference unit and the weight coefficient of each technical item; set the corresponding risk adjustment coefficient for the user; According to the formula Calculating the reference value of each modular reference unit; Where: PK is the reference value; i represents the corresponding technical item, i = 1, 2, ..., n, n is a positive integer; PCi represents the standard deviation value of the corresponding technical item; λi represents the weight coefficient of the corresponding technical item; DB is the application cost of the modular reference unit; η is the risk adjustment coefficient; When the reference value is greater than the threshold value X2, an application prompt is given to the user, and the modular reference unit with the reference value greater than the threshold value X2 is displayed to the user; When no reference value is greater than the threshold value X2, no corresponding operation is performed.

7. A method and system for assessing power system operation risk according to claim 6, characterized in that: The risk adjustment coefficient ranges from [0, 1].

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