Method for predicting congestion duration and spatial diffusion of urban road traffic

Abstract

The invention discloses a method for predicting congestion duration and spatial diffusion of urban road traffic. The method comprises the following steps of: (1) carrying out cell division on an area constituted by a target road section, an upstream road section and a downstream road section according to a road traffic flow characteristics after initial congestion occurs, wherein tail cells are defined as the cells located at a canalization region at downstream outlets of the road sections; (2) initializing each key parameter of each cell; (3) making a judgment according to a judgment rule (1) of the cell of the target road section after each time step is up, and with respect to the cells of the upstream road section and the downstream road section, making judgments according to a rule (2) and a rule (3) respectively in an observation period after each time step is judged to be up; and (4) if a termination condition of the judgment rule (1) is satisfied, terminating the judgment and calculating to predict the congestion duration, or else, turning to (3), and if the termination condition of the rule (2) or rule (3) is satisfied, terminating the judgment and calculating to predict congestion diffusion time, or else, turning to (3). The method disclosed by the invention can be used for effectively predicting the congestion duration and carrying out spatial diffusion estimation and is good in practicability.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method for analyzing and predicting urban road traffic congestion state. Background technique [0002] Traffic congestion has become one of the main social problems plaguing big cities, and has gradually become a bottleneck for sustainable social development. Traffic congestion refers to the phenomenon of traffic flow stagnation caused by the contradiction between traffic demand and supply in a certain time and space, that is, the traffic capacity provided by road traffic facilities is close to or smaller than the current traffic demand and cannot be mediated in time. As a typical traffic state, traffic congestion is a process that changes dynamically over time. Analyzing the evolution mechanism of traffic congestion on time and space scales, so as to correctly understand and grasp the generation, propagation and dissipation of traffic congestion, plays an important role in preventing and alleviating traffic congestion in ti...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0014] In order to overcome the shortcomings of the existing urban traffic congestion analysis methods that cannot effectively predict the congestion duration and spatial diffusion estimation and poor practicability, the present invention provides a city that can effectively predict the congestion duration and spatial diffusion estimation and has good practicability Duration and Spatial Diffusion Prediction Method of Road Traffic Congestion

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