Hidden-Markov-based Internet network delay forecasting method
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A prediction method and technology of network delay, applied in data exchange network, digital transmission system, electrical components, etc., can solve problems such as high delay requirements
Active Publication Date: 2013-09-25
NORTH CHINA ELECTRIC POWER UNIV (BAODING) +2
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[0002] Among Internet-based applications, some applications are not sensitive to Internet network delay, but many applications have higher requirements on Internet network delay
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Embodiment 1
[0058] figure 1 It is a flowchart of Internet network delay prediction method based on Hidden Markov. Combine below figure 1 The principle of the method provided by the present invention is described. like figure 1 Shown, the Internet network delay prediction method based on Hidden Markov provided by the present invention comprises:
[0059] Step 1: According to the historical delay data set and the set delay prediction accuracy, obtain the observable state and the observable state sequence.
[0060] This process includes the following sub-steps:
[0061] Sub-step 101: Determine the maximum time delay t in the historical time delay data set max and minimum delay t min .
[0062] Sub-step 102: according to the formula Calculate the number of observable states; where, N is the number of observable states, I is the set delay prediction accuracy, and [·] is the rounding operation.
[0063] Sub-step 103: Establish N delay intervals I j =((j-1)I,jI], where j is the serial...
Embodiment 2
[0084] The implementation process of the present invention will be described below by taking actual delay data as an example. In this embodiment, the historical time delay data sets are: 21.7867, 16.8299, 27.0571, 20.2741, 40.5288, ..., a total of 700,000 pieces of data, and the unit is milliseconds. The set delay prediction accuracy I=10 milliseconds.
[0085] Step 1: According to the historical delay data set and the set delay prediction accuracy, obtain the observable state and the observable state sequence.
[0086] Sub-step 101: Determine the maximum time delay t in the historical time delay data set max =491.2745 and minimum delay t min =0.0569.
[0087] Sub-step 102: according to the formula N = [ 491.2745 - 0.0569 10 ] + 1 = 50 Calculate the number of observable states, then the number of observable ...
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Abstract
The invention discloses a hidden-Markov-based Internet network delay forecasting method in the technical field of network delay forecasting. The method comprises the following steps of: acquiring observable status and an observable status sequence according to a historic delay data set and preset delay forecasting precision; clustering the historic delay data set by a K-Means clustering method, computing the error of the historic delay data set under different k values, and confirming an initial value according to the error of the historic delay data set under the different k values; estimating hidden Markov parameters under the different k values, computing a hidden Markov bayes information criterion value under each k value according to the hidden Markov parameters under the different k values, and selecting the k value, which corresponds to the minimum hidden Markov bayes information criterion value, as an optimal hidden status number k-best; and forecasting future delay according to the observable status and the optimal hidden status number k-best. According to the method disclosed by the invention, the rule of the delay data set and the characteristic of the Internet network can be exactly expressed, and the accuracy of forecasting of the future observable status is high.
Description
technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of network time delay prediction, in particular to a method for predicting Internet network time delay based on Hidden Markov. Background technique [0002] Among Internet-based applications, some applications are not sensitive to Internet network delay, but many applications have higher requirements on Internet network delay. For applications with high latency requirements, there are generally two methods for predicting latency: one is to perform fitting based on the relationship between latency data to predict future latency; the other is to build a network model of the Internet , to realize the prediction of the delay. Compared with the former method, the latter method has a better predictive effect, because the latter not only can include the regularity between time-delay data, but also can better reflect the current network status and the status of the network in the future. and delay conditions. [...
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