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Website page view prediction method based on historical tendency weights

A technology for website traffic and forecasting methods, which is applied in the field of website traffic forecasting based on historical trend weights, and can solve problems such as no solution.

Active Publication Date: 2014-12-17
BEIJING QIERBULAITE TECH
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Problems solved by technology

[0005] At present, there is no effective solution in the prior art

Method used

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  • Website page view prediction method based on historical tendency weights
  • Website page view prediction method based on historical tendency weights
  • Website page view prediction method based on historical tendency weights

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[0034] In order to better understand the technical problems solved by the present invention and the technical solutions provided, the present invention will be further described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and embodiments. The specific embodiments described here are only used to explain the implementation of the present invention, but not to limit the present invention.

[0035] In a preferred embodiment, figure 1 It exemplarily shows the flow of a method for predicting website visits based on historical trend weights;

[0036] Use the PV data of a certain period of time to illustrate the prediction effect. The historical data is 29 days, and 36 consecutive PV values ​​are taken out every day. The current 30 PV values ​​are known, and the next 6 PV values ​​are predicted.

[0037] 1. As shown in Table 1: Take 36 consecutive PV values ​​every day in the past 29 days, and the time interval is one every 5 minutes;

[0038] Table 1. Historical 2...

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Abstract

The invention relates to the technical field of website data statistic analysis and particularly discloses a website page view prediction method based on historical tendency weights. The method comprises the steps of data preprocessing and prediction result processing, wherein in the data preprocessing step, the logarithm of page views is taken, the variance of all time points in the historical tendency is calculated, the regression coefficient of the ith historical tendency to the current tendency is calculated, the variance of correlation coefficients of a current value estimated according to the ith historical tendency is calculated, deviation is estimated through an optimization minimization method to solve the weights, and the value appearing after the current tendency is predicted according to the weights; in the prediction result processing step, a prediction result is subjected to exponential transformation. According to the website page view prediction method, the known current tendency is compared with the historical tendencies for calculation of the correlation coefficients, the deviation of the current tendency is estimated according to all the historical tendencies, the weight of each historical tendency is selected through the optimization method, estimations at all dates are superposed according to the weights, and the current tendency and a follow-up tendency can be predicted according to a superposition result, so that the deviation of the estimations of the current tendency by synthesizing the historical tendencies is minimum, and reliable prediction is achieved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of statistical analysis of website data, in particular to a method for predicting website visits based on historical trend weights. Background technique [0002] Website traffic refers to website traffic, which is used to describe indicators such as the number of users visiting a website and the number of pages browsed by users. Commonly used statistical indicators include the number of independent users of the website, the number of total users, the number of web pages viewed, and the number of pages viewed by each user. The number of page views, the average stay time of users on the website, etc. Page views, also known as page views, English Page View, referred to as PV, is one of the most commonly used indicators for evaluating website traffic. Usually used to measure the website traffic of an online news channel or website or even a piece of online news. Monitoring the change trend of website PV, analy...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06F19/00
Inventor 胡勇
Owner BEIJING QIERBULAITE TECH
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