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Power sale quantity prediction method and device based on X13 seasonal adjustment and factor regression

A technology for seasonal adjustment and electricity sales, which is applied in the electric power field and can solve problems such as low accuracy

Inactive Publication Date: 2017-09-29
BEIJING CHINA POWER INFORMATION TECH +2
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Problems solved by technology

[0004] In view of this, the embodiment of the present invention discloses a method and device for forecasting electricity sales based on X13 seasonal adjustment and factor regression, which solves the problem of low precision in the prior art

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  • Power sale quantity prediction method and device based on X13 seasonal adjustment and factor regression
  • Power sale quantity prediction method and device based on X13 seasonal adjustment and factor regression
  • Power sale quantity prediction method and device based on X13 seasonal adjustment and factor regression

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Embodiment Construction

[0063] The following will clearly and completely describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention with reference to the accompanying drawings in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only some, not all, embodiments of the present invention. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by persons of ordinary skill in the art without making creative efforts belong to the protection scope of the present invention.

[0064] refer to figure 1 , which shows a schematic flowchart of a method for forecasting electricity sales based on X13 seasonal adjustment and factor regression provided by an embodiment of the present invention. In this embodiment, the method may include:

[0065] S101: Preprocessing the historical electricity sales data to obtain the preprocessed historical electricity sales data;

[0066] There will be some abnormally high or abnormally low data points in...

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Abstract

The embodiments of the invention disclose a power sale quantity prediction method and device based on X13 seasonal adjustment and factor regression. The method comprises the steps of preprocessing historic power sale quantity data, and decomposing the preprocessed power sale quantity sequence into a trend item, a season item and a random item by using an X13 seasonal adjustment algorithm; respectively performing prediction by adopting multiple prediction algorithms according to the influence factors and curve characteristics of sub sequences to ensure the prediction precision and robustness of the trend item; summing the prediction results of the sub sequences to reconstruct power sale quantity prediction results, and finally selecting a prediction result having the optimal performance from the multiple prediction results. Meanwhile, the embodiments of the invention further sufficiently consider the influence of some influencing factors on each decomposition item, so the precision of the prediction result obtained by the solution of the embodiment is higher.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of electric power, in particular to a method and device for forecasting electricity sales based on X13 seasonal adjustment and factor regression. Background technique [0002] Electricity sales forecasting is an important basic work of the marketing department of the State Grid Corporation of China. Monthly electricity sales forecasting is essential for the State Grid Corporation of China to reasonably determine the total quota of electricity sales, decompose the sales indicators of electricity sales, formulate orderly electricity consumption plans, and guide power plants and The rational operation of the transmission and distribution network and the promotion of the development and construction of the power market are of great significance. [0003] In the existing technology, a single method or a combined method is usually used for forecasting. For example, a single method mainly includes: gray scale system forecast...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q30/02G06Q50/06G06N99/00
CPCG06N20/00G06Q30/0202G06Q50/06
Inventor 刘建赵加奎陈雨泽方学民欧阳红方红旺朱平飞袁葆刘玉玺王树龙卢耀宗
Owner BEIJING CHINA POWER INFORMATION TECH
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