Photovoltaic power generation power prediction method based on a probability distribution function

Abstract

The invention relates to a photovoltaic power generation power prediction method based on a probability distribution function. The photovoltaic power generation power prediction method comprises the following steps that 1, collecting irradiance data and corresponding power generation power data of a photovoltaic power generation system to be predicted; 2, dividing the value range of the irradianceinto M intervals; In each interval, fitting by adopting a general distribution fitting method to obtain a photovoltaic power generation power probability density function and a cumulative distribution function corresponding to the interval; 3, for any known irradiance, finding a corresponding interval and a photovoltaic power generation power probability distribution density function to obtain aplurality of photovoltaic power generation power values corresponding to the known irradiance, and forming a photovoltaic output scene set by the photovoltaic power generation power values; And step 4, calculating an average value of each photovoltaic power generation power value in the photovoltaic output scene set to serve as a photovoltaic power generation power predicted value corresponding toknown irradiance. The photovoltaic power generation power prediction method can predict the photovoltaic power generation power quickly with high precision, and has high practical application value.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of photovoltaic power generation, and in particular relates to a method for power prediction of a photovoltaic power generation system. Background technique [0002] Photovoltaic power generation has the advantages of no pollutant emission, no fuel consumption, unlimited capacity scale, flexible application forms, safety and reliability, and simple maintenance, so it has broad development prospects. Due to the support of policies in various countries in the world, photovoltaic power generation has developed very rapidly in recent years, and has achieved large-scale applications around the world. According to the latest statistics released by the German Solar Energy Association, in 2016, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity in the world was 70GW, an increase of about 30% compared with 2015. So far, the total installed photovoltaic capacity in the world has reached 300GW. [0003] A photovoltaic power generation s...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

Although the neural network method has high precision, it has a large number of hidden layer neurons and the determination of the optimal number of hidden layer neurons and the optimal synaptic weight requires complex algorithms and a lot of research work

[0007] It can be seen that based on the defects of the existing photovoltaic power generation model, the existing photovoltaic power generation prediction has the problems of low accuracy or complex algorithm and heavy workload

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