Landing tropical cyclone daily rainfall forecasting system

A forecasting system, a technology for tropical cyclones, applied in weather forecasting, meteorology, measuring devices, etc., to achieve the effect of good forecasting performance

Active Publication Date: 2020-10-13
CHINESE ACAD OF METEOROLOGICAL SCI
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AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

However, there is currently a lack of forecasting techniques for the DSAEF model of daily precipitation for landfalling tropical cyclones

Method used

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  • Landing tropical cyclone daily rainfall forecasting system
  • Landing tropical cyclone daily rainfall forecasting system
  • Landing tropical cyclone daily rainfall forecasting system

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Embodiment Construction

[0018] In order to make the purpose, content, and advantages of the present invention clearer, the specific implementation manners of the present invention will be further described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and embodiments.

[0019] figure 1 Shown is the block diagram of the landing tropical cyclone (landing TC) daily precipitation forecasting system based on power-statistics-similar ensemble forecast model of the present invention, as figure 1 As shown, the daily precipitation forecast system for landfall tropical cyclones of the present invention includes: a generalized initial value construction module 1 , an initial value similarity discrimination module 2 , and a TC precipitation ensemble forecast module 3 .

[0020] Such as figure 1 As shown, the generalized initial value building block 1, which receives the path of the historical TC, and is used to process and obtain the target TC path, the target TC and the TC speed information of ...

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Abstract

The invention relates to a landing tropical cyclone daily rainfall forecasting system. The system comprises: a generalized initial value construction module for receiving paths of historical TC, obtaining a forecast path of a target TC at a certain path report starting moment, and combining observation paths of the forecast path of the target TC before the path report starting moment into a targetTC path, performing processing to obtain TC moving speed information of the target TC and the historical TC in a specific day scale time period; the initial value similarity discrimination module which constructs a daily scale similar region, identifies the nearest point and the shortest distance of the historical TC, calculates the similarity degree of the historical TC path and the target TC path, marks the historical TC of which the moving speed difference with the target TC reaches a threshold value, marks the historical TC of which the shortest distance is greater than a certain threshold value, and selecting m optimal similar historical TCs to send to an ensemble forecasting module; the ensemble forecasting module which obtains and ensembles the specific daily precipitation field ofthe optimal historical TC. The system has good forecasting performance for TC daily precipitation in China.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a weather forecast technology, in particular to a daily precipitation forecast system for landfall tropical cyclones based on a dynamic-statistical-similar ensemble forecast model. Background technique [0002] For weather forecasting, some scholars put forward the theory (model) of Dynamical Statistical Similarity Ensemble Forecast (DSAEF) based on the accurate model. Subsequently, the DSAEF forecasting technology (DSAEF_LTP_A 1.0 system) for the precipitation of landfalling tropical cyclones came into being, and examples proved that the forecasting performance of this system is good. However, there is currently a lack of forecasting techniques for the DSAEF model of precipitation on landfall tropical cyclones days. The daily precipitation forecast system for landfall tropical cyclones of the present invention is the forecasting technique (DSAEF_LTP_D 1.0 system) for the daily precipitation of landfall tropical cyclones by DS...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G01W1/10G06K9/62
CPCG01W1/10G06F18/22
Inventor 贾作任福民
Owner CHINESE ACAD OF METEOROLOGICAL SCI
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