A Prediction Method of Repairable Aircraft Spare Parts Based on Birth and Death Process Model
A prediction method and technology of the birth and death process, applied in CAD numerical modeling, instruments, complex mathematical operations, etc., can solve the complex situation of aircraft materials, the situation of returning to the system without considering the refurbishment of materials, and the inability to accurately predict the aviation materials Spare parts requirements and other issues to achieve high reliability
Active Publication Date: 2022-05-27
CHENGDU AIRCRAFT DESIGN INST OF AVIATION IND CORP OF CHINA +1
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Problems solved by technology
Using the maximum likelihood estimation method is often only based on the reliability data obtained from the aviation material test, while ignoring the failure rate in the actual use of the aircraft material, and this method does not fit the failure probability curve and the test after fitting; There are limitations and delays in querying the failure rate of aircraft materials in the manual. The aircraft materials are complex, and the manual cannot include the reliability data of all aircraft materials. In addition, the technology of aircraft materials is constantly updated and iterated. The reliability of the same aircraft materials produced at different times may be inconsistent.
The above two points may lead to the inability to accurately predict the demand for aviation spare parts
[0006] In addition, when the existing technology establishes the mathematical model of the birth and death process, the default capacity of the entire system is infinite, or when the system defaults to a limited capacity, it does not consider the situation of repaired aircraft materials returning to the system, which is different from the actual situation of repairable aircraft materials. different applications
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Embodiment 2
[0099] Specifically, for the spare parts prediction of the hydraulic pump parts of a certain type of aircraft, it is assumed that there are 31 aircrafts and two hydraulic pump repair factories. The average repair rate μ is known, which is 0.39 pieces / day. If the aircraft in the fleet is in good condition The rate demand value is 80%, and the specific methods include the following:
[0100] (1) Statistical hydraulic historical fault database, draw frequency histogram, such as Figure 4 shown;
[0101] (2) Convert the frequency histogram into a frequency cumulative distribution diagram, and perform curve fitting, such as Figure 5 As shown, the cumulative distribution function F(t) is obtained:
[0102] F(t)=1-e -0.03t
[0103] (3) Through the Pearson test, we get:
[0104] χ 2 =17.4520.99 2 (8)
[0105] It is proved that the historical failure data of the hydraulic pump aviation materials conform to the exponential distribution, and can be substituted into the closed e...
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The invention belongs to the technical field of aviation material support, and in particular relates to a method for predicting repairable aviation material spare parts based on a birth-death process model. According to the reliability data and historical failure data of repairable aviation materials, the invention establishes a mathematical model of birth and death process with limited capacity, and realizes the prediction of aviation material spare parts based on the requirements of the intact rate of troops.
Description
technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of aviation material support, and in particular relates to a method for predicting repairable aviation material spare parts based on a birth and death process model. Background technique [0002] Repairable aircraft parts are defined as aircraft parts that will be refurbished and repaired after failure. The uptime rate, which reflects the ratio of the aircraft that can perform the mission of the Air Force, is an important factor affecting the combat capability of the Air Force. The decision-making problem of the inventory of aviation spare parts directly affects the aircraft integrity rate. [0003] The cost of aviation spare parts accounts for a large proportion of the whole life cycle cost of the aircraft. In order to avoid the waste of funds as much as possible while meeting the flight mission, the inventory decision problem should be solved. [0004] The operation process of repairable aviation materia...
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IPC IPC(8): G06F30/20G06F17/12G06F17/18G06F119/02G06F119/04G06F111/10
CPCG06F30/20G06F17/12G06F17/18G06F2119/02G06F2119/04G06F2111/10
Inventor于文渊解海涛张文瀚邹思汉
OwnerCHENGDU AIRCRAFT DESIGN INST OF AVIATION IND CORP OF CHINA