Method and system for constructing energy power supply insurance risk early warning system framework

Abstract

The invention provides a construction method and system of an energy power insurance and supply risk early warning system framework, and the method is characterized in that the system framework takes a local insurance and supply risk early warning guide manual as a carrier, and the method comprises the steps: analyzing the characteristics and trend of the energy power insurance and supply risk; and constructing an energy power supply insurance risk early warning system framework based on the analysis result and the normal form requirement of the power supply insurance early warning normal form CWC. The early warning system framework provided by the invention can better provide a reliable basis for local promotion of insurance and supply risk early warning work, so that the energy power insurance and supply risk is comprehensively evaluated, and the orderliness and sustainability of energy power supply market construction are promoted; and meanwhile, the assessment of each link of energy power supply and the overall risk is completed, so that more accurate and comprehensive energy power supply insurance risk assessment and early warning capability can be provided, potential risks can be found and dealt with as early as possible, and stable operation of the energy power supply market is guaranteed.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the field of electric power safety technology, and in particular to a method and system for constructing an energy and electric power supply risk warning system framework. Background Art

[0002] Power supply security refers to reliable and affordable power supply that is compatible with the economic and social system. Power supply security refers to ensuring power supply security, that is, under the market and administrative mechanism, through the "early warning-prevention-emergency" system, ensuring the coordinated operation of primary power generation fuel production, supply, storage and sales, power system source, grid, load and storage, and achieving power supply security in normal or emergency situations.

[0003] Under this connotation, the research scope of energy and power security supply belongs to the scope of primary power generation energy and power balance. It does not involve the power grid security of electromechanical transient and electromagnetic transient time scales such as transient overvoltage, broadband oscillation, and interlocking disconnection, nor does it involve primary energy for non-power generation.

[0004] One of the direct reasons for the power shortage in the past two years is the lack of early warning of potential crises. Combined with other multiple factors, the shortage is inevitable. Therefore, it is urgent to build a new energy power safety supply early warning paradigm CWC (Check-Warn-Close).

[0005] The secure supply of energy and electricity faces a situation where multi-cycle and cross-system risk factors are intertwined and superimposed, but the current supply risk warning system is clearly inadequate.

[0006] The shortcomings of the current early warning system are mainly reflected in the following aspects:

[0007] 1) Methodologically: Model prediction often fails to provide early warning when faced with unknown risks or system changes in complex situations;

[0008] 2) Indicator system: focus on the power system, not involving risk transmission of other economic and social systems such as energy;

[0009] 3) In terms of time scale: focus on the near term, medium and long term are not the focus;

[0010] 4) Structurally: The focus is on the risk of threats loaded on the system, with less consideration given to the vulnerability of the system itself. Summary of the invention

[0011] The purpose of the present invention is to provide a method and system for constructing an energy and power supply risk warning system framework, aiming to solve the above-mentioned problems in the prior art.

[0012] An embodiment of the present invention provides a method for constructing an energy and power supply risk warning system framework, comprising:

[0013] Analyze the characteristics and trends of energy and power supply security risks;

[0014] Based on the analysis results and the paradigm requirements of the power supply early warning paradigm CWC, a framework of the energy and power supply risk early warning system is constructed.

[0015] The embodiment of the present invention provides a system for constructing an energy and power supply risk warning system framework, including:

[0016] Analysis module, used to analyze the characteristics and trends of energy and power supply security risks;

[0017] The building module is used to construct the framework of the energy and power supply risk warning system based on the analysis results and the paradigm requirements of the power supply warning paradigm CWC.

[0018] An embodiment of the present invention also provides an electronic device, comprising: a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein when the computer program is executed by the processor, the steps of the method for constructing the framework of the energy and power supply risk warning system are implemented.

[0019] An embodiment of the present invention also provides a computer-readable storage medium, on which a program for implementing information transmission is stored. When the program is executed by a processor, the steps of the method for constructing the above-mentioned energy and power supply risk warning system framework are implemented.

[0020] The use of the embodiments of the present invention can include the following beneficial effects: the embodiments of the present invention use the local supply security risk warning guide manual as a carrier, and the proposed energy and power supply security risk warning system framework can provide a reliable basis for local governments to promote supply security risk warning work, thereby comprehensively evaluating the energy and power supply security risks to promote the orderliness and sustainability of the energy and power supply market construction, while completing the evaluation of each link and overall risk of energy and power supply, and can provide more accurate and comprehensive energy and power supply security risk assessment and warning capabilities, which will help to discover and respond to potential risks as early as possible and ensure the stable operation of the energy and power supply market. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0021] In order to more clearly illustrate one or more embodiments of this specification or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings required for use in the embodiments or the description of the prior art will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the drawings described below are only some embodiments recorded in this specification. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without paying creative labor.

[0022] Figure 1 It is a flow chart of a method for constructing a risk warning system framework for energy and power supply security according to an embodiment of the present invention;

[0023] Figure 2 It is a schematic diagram of a system for constructing a risk warning system framework for ensuring energy and power supply according to an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0024] In order to enable those skilled in the art to better understand the technical solutions in one or more embodiments of this specification, the following will be combined with the drawings in one or more embodiments of this specification to clearly and completely describe the technical solutions in one or more embodiments of this specification. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of this specification, not all of the embodiments. Based on one or more embodiments of this specification, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work should fall within the scope of protection of this document.

[0025] Method Embodiment

[0026] According to an embodiment of the present invention, a method for constructing an energy and power supply risk warning system framework is provided. Figure 1 is a flow chart of a method for constructing an energy and power supply risk warning system framework according to an embodiment of the present invention, such as Figure 1 As shown, the method for constructing the energy and power supply risk warning system framework according to an embodiment of the present invention specifically includes:

[0027] Step S101, analyzing the characteristics and trends of energy and power supply security risks;

[0028] Step S102: constructing a risk warning system framework for energy and power supply security based on the analysis results and the power supply security warning paradigm CWC, specifically including:

[0029] S21: establishing an energy and power supply security risk library based on dimensional analysis, and encoding early warning indicators in the energy and power supply security risk library based on the characteristics of power supply risk transmission;

[0030] S22: Assess the vulnerability of the energy and power system itself and obtain risk assessment results;

[0031] S23: estimating the risk transmission paths in the energy and power supply risk library through the encoded early warning indicators, obtaining several derivative risk transmission chains, and generating a mapping relationship between the monitoring risk and the derivative risk;

[0032] S24: dynamically monitor the risk exposure scope and early warning indicators of the risk sources in the energy and power supply security risk library according to the derivative risk transmission chain to obtain the critical values ​​of the risk exposure degree and risk evolution;

[0033] S25: Based on the risk assessment results, several derivative risk transmission chains, the mapping relationship between monitoring risk and derivative risk, the risk exposure level and the critical value of risk evolution, the early warning degree of energy and power supply risk is obtained through the early warning model shown in Formula 1;

[0034] Alertness = f(Σ 缺口价格 g(h 系统性 (Warning sign) × risk exposure × (risk sensitivity - risk adaptability))) Formula 1;

[0035] Among them, f() represents the classification of warning levels based on the impact of comprehensive risk losses, g() represents the assessment of risk losses from warning signs to power shortages and power shortages, and h() represents mapping the current warning signs in the region to warning signs of multi-system, multi-regional, and multi-period derivative risks.

[0036] Wherein, the dimensions include period dimension, system dimension and object dimension;

[0037] The period dimension includes day, month, year and several years;

[0038] The system dimensions include power system, energy system, meteorological system and economic and social system;

[0039] The object dimensions include infrastructure, natural causes, and governance management;

[0040] The system's own vulnerability includes the system's sensitivity and adaptability to risks.

[0041] The above technical scheme of the embodiment of the present invention is described in detail below in combination with the specific circumstances of the method for constructing the energy and power supply risk warning system framework of the embodiment of the present invention.

[0042] Taking into account the trend of power safety supply and power security supply guarantee towards comprehensive primary and secondary energy security, in the embodiments of the present invention, energy power safety supply is used to refer to power safety supply, and energy power security supply guarantee refers to power security supply.

[0043] In combination with the requirements of the "CWC Big Early Warning" paradigm, the characteristics and trends of energy and power supply risk, the framework upgrade of the energy and power supply risk early warning system of the embodiment of the present invention should achieve "taking both internal and external factors into consideration, involving both soft and hard factors, both near and far, and closed loops from front to back", and should be reflected in the five major parts of "establishing a risk library, assessing vulnerabilities, analyzing transmission chains, tracking risk sources, and judging early warning levels". Among them, the first C in the "CWC Big Early Warning" means to check the system's own vulnerabilities, W means to warn of external threats, and the second C means to form a closed loop from early warning to prevention and control (pre-control).

[0044] 1. Method characteristics:

[0045] 1) Take both internal and external factors into consideration: Conduct vulnerability assessments of the system itself, focusing on multi-regional and cross-system characteristics to reflect the systemic and chain characteristics of energy and power security risks.

[0046] 2) Both hardware and software are involved: It includes risks of both “hardware systems” such as system infrastructure, as well as risks of “software systems” such as architecture, processes, and governance.

[0047] 3) Both short-term and long-term: In terms of time scale, multi-period warnings are considered, ranging from multiple months to multiple years, to complement the current short-term (daily) based warning indicator system.

[0048] 4) Closed loop: The post-evaluation results of prevention, control and emergency response should also be included in the next round of "early warning", and the "early warning-prevention and control-emergency" feedforward control should be enhanced to feedback control.

[0049] 2. The method steps are as follows:

[0050] It is recommended to use the local supply risk warning guide as a carrier of the energy and power supply risk warning system framework and carry out practice. The guide details the five major parts of "establishing a risk library, assessing vulnerability, analyzing the transmission chain, tracking risk sources, and judging the warning level". It can provide a handle for local governments to promote supply risk warning work, promote provincial-level supply, and help form a national warning network.

[0051] Step 1: Establish a "multi-cycle, cross-system, full-object" supply risk library. It includes three dimensions, with cycles ranging from days to years; the system covers electricity, energy, meteorology and economic society, and coordinates international, domestic, local and foreign areas; the objects involve infrastructure, natural causes and governance management. Establish a supply risk library with four time scales, four systems and three types of objects, and encode the supply risks. The supply risk library contains nearly 50 risk types. Based on the characteristics of power supply risk transmission, the early warning indicators should be encoded to take into account the risk transmission between regions, and the early warning model should be used for calculation.

[0052] Among them, the risk types are divided into the following cycles: intraday: fuel reserves, demand-side response, electricity market, etc.; monthly: energy production, transportation, storage and sales, weather forecasts, energy-economy-environmental protection policies, etc.; annual and above: power supply construction, financial and monetary policies, economic development, related strategic policies, public emergencies, etc.

[0053] Taking international imported risks as an example, in the autumn of 2021, under the situation of energy shortage in major countries around the world, international coal prices rose sharply, export orders increased the demand for coal, and Australian coal imports were zeroed, leading to power shortages. Therefore, it is very necessary to consider "multi-cycle, cross-system, and full-object" risks, such as global monetary policy, international division of labor, geopolitics, etc.

[0054] Step 2: Assess vulnerability, including the system's sensitivity and adaptability to risks. Early warning of the power system's own vulnerability is conducive to taking prevention and control measures to improve resilience and adaptability to external threats. When exposed to specific external risks, the system characteristics that will be affected and cause system losses are called system vulnerability. System vulnerability can be quantified as sensitivity to specific risks. For example, provinces with a high proportion of hydropower are more vulnerable to drought than provinces with a low proportion. The analysis of system characteristics of each link is shown in Table 1.

[0055] Table 1 System characteristics of each link

[0056]

[0057]

[0058] Step 3: Analyze the transmission chain. Find out the transmission chain of systemic risks in the risk database, including the transmission paths of derivative risks across systems, regions, and cycles, so as to prepare for and resist risks and take the initiative in preventing risks. One of the key points is to estimate the risk transmission chain, to study and judge in advance the deep-seated contradictory risks of surface risks, the evolution trend of various risks from small to large, the possibility of multiple risks derived from a single risk, and other risk transmission situations, so as to form a mapping from monitoring risks to derivative risks.

[0059] Among them, although effective measures have been taken to solve the superficial "explosive points" of the risks that have been identified, the deep-seated contradictions that form the risks have not been completely resolved, and new risk points will emerge in an endless stream. For example, the power shortage from September and October last year to this year should be classified into this category.

[0060] The lack of understanding and grasp of the causes, characteristics and evolution trends of some exposed risk points, and the inability to see the big picture from the small details, may lead to the consequences of "small problems left untreated become big problems, and leaks left unfilled lead to dam collapse". For example, the risks accumulated from the disorderly development of new energy should fall into this category.

[0061] The lack of a deep understanding of the correlation between some risks, the focus on a certain time and a certain area, the lack of overall awareness and system concepts, and the easy occurrence of derivative risks in operations. Although discussing risks in terms of risks seems to be targeted, it actually ignores the "real risks".

[0062] Step 4: Track the risk source, dynamically monitor the early warning indicators and the scope of risk exposure. There is a critical value in the evolution from benign operation to malignant operation of energy and power security supply. This critical value is manifested as a downward turning "inflection point" or threshold in the early warning. The task of early warning is to calculate these thresholds or "inflection points" and measure the critical degree of risk evolution from them.

[0063] Step 5: Determine the warning level. The warning model is adopted to integrate risk dynamics, regional risk vulnerability and systemic risk transmission chain. The warning model is to judge the warning critical value by screening the warning source and analyzing the transmission relationship between warning signs and warning conditions, and to evaluate the warning degree according to the monitoring of warning indicators. Combined with the connotation of energy and power security supply, the research and construction of the warning model are as follows:

[0064] Alertness = f(Σ 缺口价格 g(h 系统性 (Warning sign) × risk exposure × (risk sensitivity - risk adaptability)))

[0065] Among them, f() represents the classification of warning levels based on the impact of comprehensive risk losses, g() represents the assessment of risk losses from warning signs to power shortages and power shortages, and h() represents mapping the current warning signs in the region to warning signs of multi-system, multi-regional, and multi-period derivative risks.

[0066] System Example

[0067] According to an embodiment of the present invention, a system for constructing an energy and power supply risk warning system framework is provided. Figure 2 Schematic diagram of the system for constructing the energy and power supply risk warning system framework according to an embodiment of the present invention. Figure 2 As shown, the system for constructing the energy and power supply risk warning system framework according to an embodiment of the present invention specifically includes:

[0068] Analysis module 20, used to analyze the characteristics and trends of energy and power supply security risks;

[0069] Building module 22 is used to build a framework of energy and power supply risk warning system based on the analysis results and the paradigm requirements of the power supply warning paradigm CWC, specifically for:

[0070] Establishing an energy and power supply security risk library based on dimensional analysis, and encoding early warning indicators in the energy and power supply security risk library based on the characteristics of power supply risk transmission;

[0071] Assess the vulnerability of the energy and power system itself and obtain risk assessment results;

[0072] The risk transmission paths in the energy and power supply risk library are estimated through the encoded early warning indicators to obtain several derivative risk transmission chains, and a mapping relationship between monitoring risks and derivative risks is generated;

[0073] According to the derivative risk transmission chain, the risk exposure scope and early warning indicators of the risk sources in the energy and power supply security risk library are dynamically monitored to obtain the critical values ​​of the risk exposure degree and risk evolution;

[0074] Based on the risk assessment results, several derivative risk transmission chains, the mapping relationship between monitoring risk and derivative risk, the risk exposure level and the critical value of risk evolution, the early warning degree of energy and power supply risk is obtained through the early warning model shown in Formula 1;

[0075] Alertness = f(Σ 缺口价格 g(h 系统性 (Warning sign) × risk exposure × (risk sensitivity - risk adaptability))) Formula 1;

[0076] Among them, f() represents the classification of warning levels based on the impact of comprehensive risk losses, g() represents the assessment of risk losses from warning signs to power shortages and power shortages, and h() represents mapping the current warning signs in the region to warning signs of multi-system, multi-regional, and multi-period derivative risks.

[0077] Wherein, the dimensions include period dimension, system dimension and object dimension;

[0078] The period dimension includes day, month, year and several years;

[0079] The system dimensions include power system, energy system, meteorological system and economic and social system;

[0080] The object dimensions include infrastructure, natural causes, and governance management;

[0081] The system's own vulnerability includes the system's sensitivity and adaptability to risks.

[0082] The embodiment of the present invention is a system embodiment corresponding to the above-mentioned method embodiment. The specific operations of each module can be understood by referring to the description of the method embodiment, which will not be repeated here.

[0083] Device Example 1

[0084] An embodiment of the present invention provides an electronic device, comprising: a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein the computer program implements the steps described in the method embodiment when executed by the processor.

[0085] Device Example 2

[0086] An embodiment of the present invention provides a computer-readable storage medium, on which a program for implementing information transmission is stored. When the program is executed by a processor, the steps described in the method embodiment are implemented.

[0087] The computer-readable storage medium in this embodiment includes, but is not limited to, ROM, RAM, magnetic disk or optical disk, etc.

[0088] Finally, it should be noted that the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention, rather than to limit it. Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the aforementioned embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that they can still modify the technical solutions described in the aforementioned embodiments, or replace some or all of the technical features therein with equivalents. However, these modifications or replacements do not cause the essence of the corresponding technical solutions to deviate from the scope of the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for constructing a risk warning system framework for energy and power supply security, characterized in that: The system framework is based on the local supply guarantee risk early warning guide manual, and the method includes: Analyze the characteristics and trends of energy and power supply security risks; Based on the analysis results and the paradigm requirements of the power supply early warning paradigm CWC, a framework of the energy and power supply risk early warning system is constructed.

2. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that: Based on the analysis results and the power supply early warning paradigm CWC, the framework of the energy and power supply risk early warning system is constructed, including: S21: establishing an energy and power supply security risk library based on dimensional analysis, and encoding early warning indicators in the energy and power supply security risk library based on the characteristics of power supply risk transmission; S22: Assess the vulnerability of the energy and power system itself and obtain risk assessment results; S23: Predicting the risk transmission paths in the energy and power supply risk library through the encoded early warning indicators, obtaining several derivative risk transmission chains, and generating a mapping relationship between monitoring risks and derivative risks; S24: dynamically monitor the risk exposure scope and early warning indicators of the risk sources in the energy and power supply security risk library according to the derivative risk transmission chain to obtain the critical values ​​of the risk exposure degree and risk evolution; S25: Based on the risk assessment results, several derivative risk transmission chains, the mapping relationship between monitoring risk and derivative risk, the risk exposure level and the critical value of risk evolution, the early warning degree of energy and power supply risk is obtained through the early warning model shown in Formula 1; Alertness = f(∑ 缺口价格 g(h 系统性 (Warning sign) × risk exposure × (risk sensitivity - risk adaptability))) Formula 1; Among them, f() represents the classification of warning levels based on the impact of comprehensive risk losses, g() represents the assessment of risk losses from warning signs to power shortages and power shortages, and h() represents mapping the current warning signs in the region to warning signs of multi-system, multi-regional, and multi-period derivative risks.

3. The method according to claim 2, characterized in that The dimensions include period dimension, system dimension and object dimension; The period dimension includes day, month, year and several years; The system dimensions include power system, energy system, meteorological system and economic and social system; The object dimensions include infrastructure, natural causes, and governance management.

4. The method according to claim 2, characterized in that: The system's own vulnerability includes the system's sensitivity and adaptability to risks.

5. A system for constructing a risk warning system framework for energy and power supply security, characterized in that include: Analysis module, used to analyze the characteristics and trends of energy and power supply security risks; The building module is used to construct the framework of the energy and power supply risk warning system based on the analysis results and the paradigm requirements of the power supply warning paradigm CWC.

6. The system according to claim 5, characterized in that The building blocks are specifically used for: Establishing an energy and power supply security risk library based on dimensional analysis, and encoding early warning indicators in the energy and power supply security risk library based on the characteristics of power supply risk transmission; Assess the vulnerability of the energy and power system itself and obtain risk assessment results; The risk transmission paths in the energy and power supply risk library are estimated through the encoded early warning indicators to obtain several derivative risk transmission chains, and a mapping relationship between monitoring risks and derivative risks is generated; According to the derivative risk transmission chain, the risk exposure scope and early warning indicators of the risk sources in the energy and power supply security risk library are dynamically monitored to obtain the critical values ​​of the risk exposure degree and risk evolution; Based on the risk assessment results, several derivative risk transmission chains, the mapping relationship between monitoring risk and derivative risk, the risk exposure level and the critical value of risk evolution, the early warning degree of energy and power supply risk is obtained through the early warning model shown in Formula 1; Alertness = f(Σ 缺口价格 g(h 系统性 (Warning sign) × risk exposure × (risk sensitivity - risk adaptability))) Formula 1; Among them, f() represents the classification of warning levels based on the impact of comprehensive risk losses, g() represents the assessment of risk losses from warning signs to power shortages and power shortages, and h() represents mapping the current warning signs in the region to warning signs of multi-system, multi-regional, and multi-period derivative risks.

7. The system according to claim 6, characterized in that The dimensions include period dimension, system dimension and object dimension; The period dimension includes day, month, year and several years; The system dimensions include power system, energy system, meteorological system and economic and social system; The object dimensions include infrastructure, natural causes, and governance management.

8. The system according to claim 6, characterized in that The system's own vulnerability includes the system's sensitivity and adaptability to risks.

9. An electronic device, characterized in that: include: A memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein the computer program, when executed by the processor, implements the steps of a method for constructing a framework of an energy and power supply risk warning system as described in any one of claims 1 to 4.

10. A computer-readable storage medium, characterized in that: The computer-readable storage medium stores an implementation program for information transmission, and when the program is executed by the processor, the steps of the method for constructing the energy and power supply risk warning system framework as described in any one of claims 1-4 are implemented.

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