Operation monitoring and auxiliary decision-making method and system for supporting and breeding mechanism

Abstract

The invention relates to the technical field of educational institution management, in particular to a supporting institution operation monitoring and auxiliary decision making method and system. The method comprises the following steps: extracting and fusing nationwide and regional support institution record data and support service statistical survey data as nationwide and regional support institution cardinal numbers, and changing the nationwide and regional support institution cardinal numbers through support numbers contained in support institution record change. Monitoring the operation condition of the supporting and rearing institution, monitoring the change and logout condition of the supporting and rearing institution, measuring and calculating the number of infants with supporting and rearing demands in the future, and monitoring supporting and rearing resources according to the matching degree of the supporting and rearing resource supply condition and the supporting and rearing demands; according to the invention, real-time and regular monitoring of the operation condition of the supporting and rearing mechanism is realized nationwide and in different regions, support is provided for country and supporting and rearing policy preparation, and the supporting and rearing position of the existing supporting and rearing mechanism can be adjusted more accurately by predicting the number of supporting and rearing demands.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of educational institution management, and in particular to a method and system for monitoring and assisting decision-making in childcare institutions. Background Art

[0003] Monitoring the operation of childcare institutions across the country and in various regions and providing auxiliary decision-making support to government departments based on the monitoring data can provide effective support for the formulation of childcare policies and help the healthy development of childcare institutions. Summary of the invention

[0004] In view of the above-mentioned deficiencies in the prior art, the present invention aims to provide a method and system for monitoring the operation of childcare institutions and assisting decision-making, so as to monitor the operation of childcare institutions and adjust the childcare institutions based on the prediction of the number of childcare needs.

[0005] In order to solve the above problems, the present invention adopts the following technical solutions:

[0006] On the one hand, the present invention provides a method for monitoring and assisting decision-making of a childcare institution, comprising:

[0007] Extract and integrate the national and regional childcare institution registration data and childcare service statistical survey data to serve as the national and regional childcare institution base;

[0008] Changes to the national and regional base number of childcare institutions are made through changes to the number of childcare places included in the registration of childcare institutions;

[0009] Monitor the operation of childcare institutions;

[0010] Monitor changes and cancellations of childcare institutions;

[0011] Calculate the number of infants and young children who will need childcare in the future, and monitor childcare resources based on the degree of match between the supply of childcare resources and the demand.

[0012] As an implementable method, the national and regional childcare institution registration data and childcare service statistical survey data are extracted and integrated, and the national and regional childcare institution base includes:

[0013] According to the dimensions of the childcare institution's institutional form, the nature of the venue, and the level of the institution's building area, an equal number of institutional data are extracted from the childcare institution registration data and the childcare service survey statistical data as sample data, which are cross-checked and weighted adjusted, and the checked and adjusted data are used as the base data; the institutional forms include exclusive, group, chain, franchise or others, the nature of the venue is self-owned or leased, and the level of the institution's building area is classified as micro, small, medium or extra-large.

[0014] As an implementable method, the change of the national and regional base number of daycare institutions through the number of daycare places included in the change of daycare institution registration includes: for childcare institutions that apply for cancellation, if the approval is passed or the cancellation takes effect, the number of daycare places provided by the cancelled institution will be subtracted from the base number of daycare institutions to serve as the national and regional base number of daycare institutions.

[0015] As an implementable method, the monitoring of the operating conditions of childcare institutions includes: analyzing the operating data of childcare institutions based on the annual operating report data submitted annually by the childcare institutions, including class organization, institution location, institution investment scale, funding source, fee level, profit and loss situation, number of employees, academic qualifications, and majors; comparing the operating data with data from other data sources to analyze the operating risks of childcare institutions. Data from other data sources include residents' disposable income and the professional configuration of local secondary and higher education institutions.

[0016] As an implementable method, the monitoring of changes and cancellations of childcare institutions includes monitoring the nature of the institution, the scale of childcare acceptance, the location of the institution, and food business license information; the cancellation monitoring includes evaluating the cancellation type, reason for cancellation, and early warning scenarios; if the number of childcare institutions cancelled due to operational difficulties reaches a certain threshold within a certain period of time, the local regulatory authorities are reminded to pay attention; if the number of childcare institutions cancelled due to failure in fire inspections exceeds a threshold, the regulatory authorities are reminded to pay attention to local fire inspection standards.

[0017] As an implementable method, the calculation of the number of infants and young children who will need childcare in the future includes:

[0018] Calculate the population of the next year, the population of the next year P x (t+1) is the number of people surviving in the next year, N x and Migrant Population I x The calculations show that:

[0019] R x (t+1)=N x (t+1)+I x (t+1)

[0020] The number of people aged 0 each year is calculated by the number of births in that year B[t, t+1], the number of person-years of survival at age 0 L0, and the number of people aged 0 l0:

[0021]

[0022] Population of the highest age group each year The population of the highest age group in the previous year Number of people in the highest age group minus 1 year old in the previous year and x years old, x-1 total number of survivors T x , T x-1 The calculation method is as follows:

[0023]

[0024] According to the number of survivors in each population at the starting point of the prediction interval, the model life table L x , l x , T x Related parameters, predict the number of people still alive at the beginning of the next interval, PADIS-INT uses the population and parameters of single-year groups, and performs calculations year by year. Input the initial population of five-year groups or birth, death, and migration parameters, and the software interpolates the parameters:

[0025]

[0026] For the older age group,

[0027]

[0028] For the birth group,

[0029]

[0030] Calculate the number of newborns in each population within the prediction interval, use the age-specific number of women of childbearing age, TFR, and fertility pattern to calculate the number of newborns, add the newborns to the corresponding number of people, and calculate the number of newborns who survive to the beginning of the next prediction interval B[t, t+1]:

[0031]

[0032] Among them, the number of newborn girls is B F [t, t+1] is:

[0033]

[0034] Number of newborn boys M [t, t+1] is:

[0035]

[0036] Add the number of net migrants in the corresponding forecast scenario to each population: use the net migration rate or net migration number and migration pattern to calculate the net migration number by age, include the number of survivors in each age group, and participate in the calculation of deaths and births in the next year;

[0037] If the net migration rate is set, let i be the net migration rate, I be the number of net migrants, and the age-specific migration rate be m x , then:

[0038] I[t, t+1]=∑N x (t)·i·m x

[0039] The number of infants and young children under the age of 3 who ultimately have childcare needs after taking into account factors such as death and migration.

[0040] On the other hand, the present invention provides a childcare institution operation monitoring and decision-making assistance system, including a national and regional childcare institution base statistics module, a childcare institution monitoring module, and a childcare resource monitoring module;

[0041] The national and regional childcare institution base statistics module is used to extract and integrate the national and regional childcare institution registration data and childcare service statistical survey data as the national and regional childcare institution bases, and to change the national and regional childcare institution bases through the number of childcare places included in the childcare institution registration changes;

[0042] The childcare institution monitoring module is used to monitor the operation of the childcare institution and the change and cancellation of the childcare institution;

[0043] The childcare resource monitoring module is used to estimate the number of infants and young children who will need childcare in the future, and to monitor childcare resources based on the degree of matching between the supply of childcare resources and the childcare demand.

[0044] As an implementable method, the national and regional childcare institution registration data and childcare service statistical survey data are extracted and integrated, and the national and regional childcare institution base includes:

[0045] According to the dimensions of the institutional form, location nature, and institutional building area level of childcare institutions, the same number of institutional data are extracted from the childcare institution registration data and the childcare service survey statistical data as sample data, and cross-checked and weighted adjustments are carried out, and the checked and adjusted data are used as the base data; the institutional forms include exclusive, group, chain, franchise or others, the location nature is self-owned or leased, and the institutional building area level is classified as micro, small, medium or super large;

[0046] The changes to the national and regional base numbers of daycare institutions through the number of daycare places included in the changes in the registration of daycare institutions include: for daycare institutions that apply for cancellation, if the approval is passed or the cancellation takes effect, the number of daycare places provided by the cancelled institution will be subtracted from the base number of daycare institutions to serve as the national and regional base number of daycare institutions.

[0047] As an implementable method, the monitoring of the operation of childcare institutions includes: analyzing the operation data of childcare institutions according to the annual operation report data reported by the childcare institutions annually, including the class organization, the location of the institution, the scale of investment of the institution, the source of funds, the charging level, the profit and loss situation, the number of employees, the education level, and the major, comparing the operation data with the data from other data sources, and analyzing the operation risks of the childcare institutions, and the data from other data sources include the disposable income of residents and the professional configuration of local secondary and higher education institutions;

[0048] The monitoring of changes and cancellations of childcare institutions includes monitoring the nature of the institution, the scale of childcare acceptance, the location of the institution, and food business license information; the monitoring of cancellations includes evaluating the type of cancellation, reasons for cancellation, and early warning scenarios. If the number of childcare institutions cancelled due to operational difficulties reaches a certain threshold within a certain period of time, the local regulatory authorities will be reminded to pay attention; if the number of childcare institutions cancelled due to failure in fire inspections exceeds the threshold, the regulatory authorities will be reminded to pay attention to local fire inspection standards.

[0049] As an implementable method, the calculation of the number of infants and young children who will need childcare in the future includes:

[0050] Calculate the population of the next year, the population of the next year P x (t+1) is the number of people surviving in the next year, N x and Migrant Population I x The calculations show that:

[0051] P x (t+1)=N x (t+1)+I x (t+1)

[0052] The number of people aged 0 each year is calculated by the number of births in that year B[t, t+1], the number of person-years of survival at age 0 L0, and the number of people aged 0 l0:

[0053]

[0054] Population of the highest age group each year The population of the highest age group in the previous year Number of people in the highest age group minus 1 year old in the previous year and x years old, x-1 total number of survivors T x , T x-1 The calculation method is as follows:

[0055]

[0056] According to the number of survivors in each population at the starting point of the prediction interval, the model life table L x , l x , Tx Related parameters, predict the number of people still alive at the beginning of the next interval, PADIS-INT uses the population and parameters of single-year groups, and performs calculations year by year. Input the initial population of five-year groups or birth, death, and migration parameters, and the software interpolates the parameters:

[0057]

[0058] For the older age group,

[0059]

[0060] For the birth group,

[0061]

[0062] Calculate the number of newborns in each population within the prediction interval, use the age-specific number of women of childbearing age, TFR, and fertility pattern to calculate the number of newborns, add the newborns to the corresponding number of people, and calculate the number of newborns who survive to the beginning of the next prediction interval B[t, t+1]:

[0063]

[0064] Among them, the number of newborn girls is B F [t, t+1] is:

[0065]

[0066] Number of newborn boys M [t, t+1] is:

[0067]

[0068] Add the number of net migrants in the corresponding forecast scenario to each population: use the net migration rate or net migration number and migration pattern to calculate the net migration number by age, include the number of survivors in each age group, and participate in the calculation of deaths and births in the next year;

[0069] If the net migration rate is set, let i be the net migration rate, I be the number of net migrants, and the age-specific migration rate be m x , then:

[0070] I[t, t+1]=∑N x (t)·i·m x

[0071] The number of infants and young children under the age of 3 who ultimately have childcare needs after taking into account factors such as death and migration.

[0072] The beneficial effects of the present invention are as follows: through the present invention, real-time and regular monitoring of the operation of childcare institutions across the country and by region can be achieved, support can be provided for the formulation of national and childcare policies, and the childcare places of existing childcare institutions can be adjusted more accurately by predicting the number of childcare needs. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0073] Figure 1 This is a schematic diagram of a method for monitoring the operation of a childcare institution and assisting decision-making according to the present invention.

[0074] Figure 2 This is a schematic diagram of a childcare institution operation monitoring and decision-making assistance system of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0075] The present invention is further described in detail below in conjunction with specific embodiments.

[0076] It should be noted that these embodiments are only used to illustrate the present invention rather than to limit the present invention. Simple improvements to the method based on the concept of the present invention all fall within the scope of protection claimed by the present invention.

[0077] See also Figure 1 , which is a method for monitoring the operation of childcare institutions and assisting decision-making, including:

[0078] The national and regional childcare institution registration data and childcare service statistical survey data are extracted and integrated to serve as the national and regional daycare institution base.

[0079] This embodiment provides a specific implementation of the above process:

[0080] At present, the filing information of childcare institutions has not yet covered all childcare institutions for infants and young children under the age of 3 in the country, but the data of childcare institutions that have completed filing are all audited individual case data of institutions. The coverage of the childcare service survey and statistical data is relatively wide, but the data is reported by the institutions themselves and may be biased. In order to calculate the base data of childcare places more accurately, the present invention extracts the same number of institutional data from the filing data of childcare institutions and the statistical data of childcare service survey according to the dimensions of the institutional form, nature of the venue, and the level of the institutional building area of ​​the childcare institution as sample data, and performs mutual verification and weighted adjustment, and uses the verified and adjusted data as the base data; the institutional form includes exclusive, group, chain, franchise or other, the nature of the venue is self-owned or leased, and the institutional building area level is classified as micro, small, medium or super large. For example, the institutional form of childcare institutions in the same area is extracted from the filing data of childcare institutions and the childcare survey service data, and the institutions with exclusive operation, self-owned venues, medium-sized institutional building areas, and institutions with comparable registered capital scales are used as weights (the number of users can reflect the coverage range) for weighted calculation.

[0081] The number of childcare places in the country and in different regions will be changed through the number of childcare places included in the changes in the childcare institution registration. For example, if the application for cancellation of a childcare institution is approved or the cancellation takes effect, the number of childcare places provided by the cancelled institution will be subtracted from the number of childcare places, which will be used as the number of childcare places in the country and in different regions.

[0082] Monitor the operation of childcare institutions. Analyze the operation data of childcare institutions based on the annual operation report data submitted by childcare institutions, including class organization, institution location, investment scale, funding source, fee level, profit and loss, number of employees, education background, and major. Compare the operation data with data from other data sources to analyze the operation risks of childcare institutions. Other data sources include residents' disposable income and professional configuration of local secondary and higher education institutions. For example, the matching degree between the charging standards of childcare institutions and the disposable income of local residents, and the matching degree between the per capita teacher configuration of childcare institutions and local educational resources in the medium and long term.

[0083] Monitor changes and cancellations of childcare institutions. Monitor the nature of the institution, the scale of the institution, the institution's location, and the food business license information. Cancellation monitoring includes evaluation of the cancellation type, cancellation reason, and early warning scenarios. If the number of childcare institutions cancelled due to operational difficulties reaches a certain threshold within a certain period of time, remind the local regulatory authorities to pay attention. If the number of childcare institutions cancelled due to unqualified fire inspections exceeds the threshold, remind the regulatory authorities to pay attention to local fire inspection standards.

[0084] Calculate the number of infants and young children who will need childcare in the future, and monitor childcare resources based on the degree of match between the supply of childcare resources and the demand.

[0085] This embodiment provides a specific implementation of the above process:

[0086] The present invention uses the population cohort element method to predict the dynamic changes of regional, gender, age population and its structure in future years by setting the level and pattern of fertility, selecting different model life tables, setting life expectancy, setting the level and pattern of migration and other parameters. The present invention sets the age population to be under 3 years old and takes into account population migration, such as people who migrate from other places to the local area and have childcare needs.

[0087] Calculate the population of the next year, the population of the next year P x (t+1) is the number of people surviving in the next year, N x and Migrant Population I x The calculations show that:

[0088] P x (t+1)=N x (t+1)+I x (t+1)

[0089] The number of people aged 0 each year is calculated by the number of births in that year B[t, t+1], the number of person-years of survival at age 0 L0, and the number of people aged 0 l0:

[0090]

[0091] Population of the highest age group each year The population of the highest age group in the previous year Number of people in the highest age group minus 1 year old in the previous year and x years old, x-1 total number of survivors T x , T x-1 The calculation method is as follows:

[0092]

[0093] According to the number of survivors in each population at the starting point of the prediction interval, the model life table L x , l x , T x Related parameters, predict the number of people still alive at the beginning of the next interval, PADIS-INT uses the population and parameters of single-year groups, and performs calculations year by year. Input the initial population of five-year groups or birth, death, and migration parameters, and the software interpolates the parameters:

[0094]

[0095] For the older age group,

[0096]

[0097] For the birth group,

[0098]

[0099] Calculate the number of newborns in each population within the prediction interval, use the age-specific number of women of childbearing age, TFR, and fertility pattern to calculate the number of newborns, add the newborns to the corresponding number of people, and calculate the number of newborns who survive to the beginning of the next prediction interval B[t, t+1]:

[0100]

[0101] Among them, the number of newborn girls is B F [t, t+1] is:

[0102]

[0103] Number of newborn boys M [t, t+1] is:

[0104]

[0105] Among them, SRB is the sex ratio.

[0106] Add the number of net migrants in the corresponding forecast scenario to each population: use the net migration rate or net migration number and migration pattern to calculate the net migration number by age, include the number of survivors in each age group, and participate in the calculation of deaths and births in the next year;

[0107] If the net migration rate is set, let i be the net migration rate, I be the number of net migrants, and the age-specific migration rate be m x , then:

[0108] I[t, t+1]=∑N x (t)·i·m x

[0109] The number of infants and young children under the age of 3 who ultimately have childcare needs after taking into account factors such as death and migration.

[0110] See also Figure 2 , which is a childcare institution operation monitoring and decision-making support system, including a national and regional childcare institution base statistics module 100, a childcare institution monitoring module 200 and a childcare resource monitoring module 300;

[0111] The national and regional childcare institution base statistics module 100 is used to extract and merge the national and regional childcare institution registration data and childcare service statistical survey data as the national and regional childcare institution bases, and to change the national and regional childcare institution bases through the number of childcare places included in the childcare institution registration changes;

[0112] The childcare institution monitoring module 200 is used to monitor the operation of the childcare institution and the change and cancellation of the childcare institution;

[0113] The childcare place resource monitoring module 300 is used to estimate the number of infants and young children who will need childcare in the future, and to monitor childcare place resources according to the degree of matching between the supply of childcare place resources and the childcare demand.

[0114] Among them, the registration data of childcare institutions and the statistical survey data of childcare services in the country and in different regions are extracted and integrated, and the base number of childcare institutions in the country and in different regions includes:

[0115] According to the dimensions of the institutional form, location nature, and institutional building area level of childcare institutions, the same number of institutional data are extracted from the childcare institution registration data and the childcare service survey statistical data as sample data, and cross-checked and weighted adjustments are carried out, and the checked and adjusted data are used as the base data; the institutional forms include exclusive, group, chain, franchise or others, the location nature is self-owned or leased, and the institutional building area level is classified as micro, small, medium or super large;

[0116] The changes to the national and regional base numbers of daycare institutions are made through the number of daycare places included in the changes in the registration of daycare institutions, including: for daycare institutions that apply for cancellation, if the approval is passed or the cancellation takes effect, the number of daycare places provided by the cancelled institution will be subtracted from the base number of daycare institutions to serve as the national and regional base numbers of daycare institutions.

[0117] Among them, monitoring the operation of childcare institutions includes: analyzing the operation data of childcare institutions based on the annual operation report data submitted by childcare institutions, including class organization, institution location, institution investment scale, funding source, fee level, profit and loss, number of employees, education background, and major, comparing the operation data with data from other data sources, and analyzing the operation risks of childcare institutions. Other data sources include residents' disposable income and the professional configuration of local secondary and higher education institutions;

[0118] Monitoring of changes and cancellations of childcare institutions includes monitoring of the nature of the institution, scale of childcare acceptance, location of the institution, and food business license information. Monitoring of cancellations includes evaluating the type of cancellation, reason for cancellation, and early warning scenarios. If the number of childcare institutions cancelled due to operational difficulties reaches a certain threshold within a certain period of time, local regulatory authorities will be reminded to pay attention. If the number of childcare institutions cancelled due to failure in fire inspections exceeds the threshold, regulatory authorities will be reminded to pay attention to local fire inspection standards.

[0119] Among them, the calculation of the number of infants and young children who will need childcare in the future includes:

[0120] Calculate the population of the next year, the population of the next year P x (t+1) is the number of people surviving in the next year, N x and Migrant Population I x The calculations show that:

[0121] P x (t+1)=N x (t+1)+I x (t+1)

[0122] The number of people aged 0 each year is calculated by the number of births in that year B[t, t+1], the number of person-years of survival at age 0 L0, and the number of people aged 0 l0:

[0123]

[0124] Population of the highest age group each year The population of the highest age group in the previous year Number of people in the highest age group minus 1 year old in the previous year and x years old, x-1 total number of survivors T x , T x-1 The calculation method is as follows:

[0125]

[0126] According to the number of survivors in each population at the starting point of the prediction interval, the model life table L x , l x , T x Related parameters, predict the number of people still alive at the beginning of the next interval, PADIS-INT uses the population and parameters of single-year groups, and performs calculations year by year. Input the initial population of five-year groups or birth, death, and migration parameters, and the software interpolates the parameters:

[0127]

[0128] For the older age group,

[0129]

[0130] For the birth group,

[0131]

[0132] Calculate the number of newborns in each population within the prediction interval, use the age-specific number of women of childbearing age, TFR, and fertility pattern to calculate the number of newborns, add the newborns to the corresponding number of people, and calculate the number of newborns who survive to the beginning of the next prediction interval B[t, t+1]:

[0133]

[0134] Among them, the number of newborn girls is B F [t, t+1] is:

[0135]

[0136] Number of newborn boys M [t, t+1] is:

[0137]

[0138] Add the number of net migrants in the corresponding forecast scenario to each population: use the net migration rate or net migration number and migration pattern to calculate the net migration number by age, include the number of survivors in each age group, and participate in the calculation of deaths and births in the next year;

[0139] If the net migration rate is set, let i be the net migration rate, I be the number of net migrants, and the age-specific migration rate be m x , then:

[0140] I[t, t+1]=∑N x (t)·i·m x

[0141] The number of infants and young children under 3 years old who ultimately need childcare after considering death and migration factors

[0142] Based on the method and system provided by the present invention:

[0143] (1) National, provincial, municipal and county governments supervise and obtain national and regional childcare institution base data through childcare registration system data and survey statistics.

[0144] (2) Government regulatory authorities shall set up monitoring modes according to monitoring needs, such as monitoring and early warning modes for childcare resources, monitoring and early warning modes for the operation of childcare institutions, and monitoring and early warning modes for changes and cancellations of childcare institutions.

[0145] (3) Under the childcare resource monitoring mode, the matching degree between the supply of childcare resources and the demand for childcare is monitored and warned through analysis of the childcare data of childcare institutions, birth registration data, birth population data, and data of migrant women of childbearing age.

[0146] (3) Under the early warning mode for the operation of childcare institutions, government regulatory authorities monitor and warn of the operation of childcare institutions, the demand for employees, etc. through the annual operating data submitted by childcare institutions, the disposable income of local residents, and the allocation of childcare-related educational resources.

[0147] (4) Under the monitoring mode of changes and cancellations of childcare institutions, government regulatory authorities conduct early warning monitoring through real-time reporting of changes and cancellations of childcare institutions, and adjust corresponding service support measures.

[0148] Finally, it should be noted that the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention rather than to limit it. Although the present invention has been described with reference to the preferred embodiments of the present invention, it should be understood by those skilled in the art that various changes may be made in form and details without departing from the spirit and scope of the present invention as defined in the appended claims.

Claims

1. A method for monitoring and assisting decision-making in childcare institutions, characterized in that: include: Extract and integrate the national and regional childcare institution registration data and childcare service statistical survey data to serve as the national and regional childcare institution base; Changes to the national and regional base number of childcare institutions are made through changes to the number of childcare places included in the registration of childcare institutions; Monitor the operation of childcare institutions; Monitor changes and cancellations of childcare institutions; Calculate the number of infants and young children who will need childcare in the future, and monitor childcare resources based on the degree of match between the supply of childcare resources and the demand.

2. The method for monitoring and assisting decision-making of childcare institutions according to claim 1, characterized in that: The data on the filing of childcare institutions and childcare service statistics at the national and regional levels are extracted and integrated to form the national and regional base numbers of childcare institutions, including: According to the dimensions of the childcare institution's institutional form, the nature of the venue, and the level of the institution's building area, an equal number of institutional data are extracted from the childcare institution registration data and the childcare service survey statistical data as sample data, which are cross-checked and weighted adjusted, and the checked and adjusted data are used as the base data; the institutional forms include exclusive, group, chain, franchise or others, the nature of the venue is self-owned or leased, and the level of the institution's building area is classified as micro, small, medium or extra-large.

3. The method for monitoring and assisting decision-making of childcare institutions according to claim 1, characterized in that: The changes to the national and regional base numbers of daycare institutions through the number of daycare places included in the changes in the registration of daycare institutions include: for daycare institutions that apply for cancellation, if the approval is passed or the cancellation takes effect, the number of daycare places provided by the cancelled institution will be subtracted from the base number of daycare institutions to serve as the national and regional base number of daycare institutions.

4. The method for monitoring and assisting decision-making of childcare institutions according to claim 1, characterized in that: The monitoring of the operating conditions of childcare institutions includes: analyzing the operating data of childcare institutions based on the annual operating report data submitted annually by the childcare institutions, including class organization, institution location, institution investment scale, funding sources, fee levels, profit and loss, number of employees, academic qualifications, and majors; comparing the operating data with data from other data sources to analyze the operating risks of childcare institutions. Data from other data sources include residents' disposable income and professional configurations of local secondary and higher education institutions.

5. The method for monitoring and assisting decision-making of childcare institutions according to claim 1, characterized in that: The monitoring of changes and cancellations of childcare institutions includes monitoring the nature of the institution, the scale of childcare acceptance, the location of the institution, and food business license information; the monitoring of cancellations includes evaluating the type of cancellation, reasons for cancellation, and early warning scenarios. If the number of childcare institutions cancelled due to operational difficulties reaches a certain threshold within a certain period of time, the local regulatory authorities will be reminded to pay attention; if the number of childcare institutions cancelled due to failure in fire inspections exceeds the threshold, the regulatory authorities will be reminded to pay attention to local fire inspection standards.

6. The method for monitoring and assisting decision-making of childcare institutions according to claim 1, characterized in that: The calculation of the number of infants and young children who will need childcare in the future includes: Calculate the population of the next year, the population of the next year P x (t+1) is the number of people surviving in the next year, N x and Migrant Population I x The calculations show that: P x (t+1)=N x (t+1)+I x (t+1) The number of people aged 0 each year is calculated by the number of births in that year B[t, t+1], the number of person-years of survival at age 0 L0, and the number of people aged 0 l0: Population in the highest age group each year The population of the highest age group in the previous year Number of people in the highest age group minus 1 year old in the previous year and x years old, x-1 total number of survivors T x 、T x-1 The calculation method is as follows: According to the number of survivors in each population at the starting point of the prediction interval, the model life table L x , l x 、T x Related parameters, predict the number of people still alive at the beginning of the next interval, PADIS-INT uses the population and parameters of single-year groups, and performs calculations year by year. Input the initial population of five-year groups or birth, death, and migration parameters, and the software interpolates the parameters: For the older age group, For the birth group, Calculate the number of newborns in each population within the prediction interval, use the age-specific number of women of childbearing age, TFR, and fertility pattern to calculate the number of newborns, add the newborns to the corresponding number of people, and calculate the number of newborns who survive to the beginning of the next prediction interval B[t, t+1]: Among them, the number of newborn girls is B F [t, t+1] is: Number of newborn boys M [t, t+1] is: Add the number of net migrants in the corresponding forecast scenario to each population: use the net migration rate or net migration number and migration pattern to calculate the net migration number by age, include the number of survivors in each age group, and participate in the calculation of deaths and births in the next year; If the net migration rate is set, let i be the net migration rate, I be the number of net migrants, and the age-specific migration rate be m x , then: I[t,t+1]=∑N x (t)·i·m x The number of infants and young children under the age of 3 who ultimately have childcare needs after taking into account factors such as death and migration.

7. A childcare institution operation monitoring and decision-making support system, characterized in that: It includes national and regional childcare institution base statistics module, childcare institution monitoring module and childcare resource monitoring module; The national and regional childcare institution base statistics module is used to extract and integrate the national and regional childcare institution registration data and childcare service statistical survey data as the national and regional childcare institution bases, and to change the national and regional childcare institution bases through the number of childcare places included in the childcare institution registration changes; The childcare institution monitoring module is used to monitor the operation of the childcare institution and the change and cancellation of the childcare institution; The childcare resource monitoring module is used to calculate the number of infants and young children who will need childcare in the future, and to monitor childcare resources based on the degree of matching between the supply of childcare resources and the childcare demand.

8. The childcare institution operation monitoring and decision support system according to claim 7, characterized in that: The data on the filing of childcare institutions and childcare service statistics at the national and regional levels are extracted and integrated to form the national and regional base numbers of childcare institutions, including: According to the dimensions of the institutional form, location nature, and institutional building area level of childcare institutions, the same number of institutional data are extracted from the childcare institution registration data and the childcare service survey statistical data as sample data, and cross-checked and weighted adjustments are carried out, and the checked and adjusted data are used as the base data; the institutional forms include exclusive, group, chain, franchise or others, the location nature is self-owned or leased, and the institutional building area level is classified as micro, small, medium or super large; The changes to the national and regional base numbers of daycare institutions through the number of daycare places included in the changes in the registration of daycare institutions include: for daycare institutions that apply for cancellation, if the approval is passed or the cancellation takes effect, the number of daycare places provided by the cancelled institution will be subtracted from the base number of daycare institutions to serve as the national and regional base number of daycare institutions.

9. The childcare institution operation monitoring and decision support system according to claim 7, characterized in that: The monitoring of the operation of childcare institutions includes: analyzing the operation data of childcare institutions based on the annual operation report data submitted by the childcare institutions, including the class organization, institution location, institution investment scale, funding source, fee level, profit and loss, number of employees, education background, and major, comparing the operation data with data from other data sources, and analyzing the operation risks of childcare institutions. Data from other data sources include residents' disposable income and the professional configuration of local secondary and higher education institutions; The monitoring of changes and cancellations of childcare institutions includes monitoring the nature of the institution, the scale of childcare acceptance, the location of the institution, and food business license information; the monitoring of cancellations includes evaluating the type of cancellation, reasons for cancellation, and early warning scenarios. If the number of childcare institutions cancelled due to operational difficulties reaches a certain threshold within a certain period of time, the local regulatory authorities will be reminded to pay attention; if the number of childcare institutions cancelled due to failure in fire inspections exceeds the threshold, the regulatory authorities will be reminded to pay attention to local fire inspection standards.

10. The childcare institution operation monitoring and decision support system according to claim 7, characterized in that: The calculation of the number of infants and young children who will need childcare in the future includes: Calculate the population of the next year, the population of the next year P x (t+1) is the number of people surviving in the next year, N x and Migrant Population I x The calculations show that: P x (t+1)=N x (t+1)+I x (t+1) The number of people aged 0 each year is calculated by the number of births in that year B[t, t+1], the number of person-years of survival at age 0 L0, and the number of people aged 0 l0: Population in the highest age group each year The population of the highest age group in the previous year Number of people in the highest age group minus 1 year old in the previous year and x years old, x-1 total number of survivors T x 、T x-1 The calculation method is as follows: According to the number of survivors in each population at the starting point of the prediction interval, the model life table L x , l x , T x Related parameters, predict the number of people still alive at the beginning of the next interval, PADIS-INT uses the population and parameters of single-year groups, and performs calculations year by year. Input the initial population of five-year groups or birth, death, and migration parameters, and the software interpolates the parameters: For the older age group, For the birth group, Calculate the number of newborns in each population within the prediction interval, use the age-specific number of women of childbearing age, TFR, and fertility pattern to calculate the number of newborns, add the newborns to the corresponding number of people, and calculate the number of newborns who survive to the beginning of the next prediction interval B[t, t+1]: Among them, the number of newborn girls is B F [t, t+1] is: Number of newborn boys M [t, t+1] is: Add the number of net migrants in the corresponding forecast scenario to each population: use the net migration rate or net migration number and migration pattern to calculate the net migration number by age, include the number of survivors in each age group, and participate in the calculation of deaths and births in the next year; If the net migration rate is set, let i be the net migration rate, I be the number of net migrants, and the age-specific migration rate be m x , then: I[t,t+1]=∑N x (t)·i·m x The number of infants and young children under the age of 3 who ultimately have childcare needs after taking into account factors such as death and migration.

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