Crack prediction method and device, electronic equipment and computer readable storage medium
By detecting the leakage magnetic field and stress change trends at the 9Cr steel welded joints, we predict whether the joints will produce type IV cracks, which solves the safety hazards caused by crack propagation of welded joints and improves the safety of equipment operation.
Patent Information
- Application Number
- CN202411528241.3
- Authority / Receiving Office
- CN · China
- Patent Type
- Applications(China)
- Current Assignee / Owner
- Filing Date
- 2024-10-30
- Publication Date
- 2025-03-14
AI Technical Summary
In coal-fired thermal power units, the IV cracks of the 9Cr steel welded joints are prone to expand at high temperatures, causing the entire circle of the welded joints to crack, posing serious safety hazards to the unit.
By detecting the leakage field at the welded joint, it is predicted whether the joint will produce cracks. The leakage magnetic field sensor is used to detect the tangential leakage magnetic field and the normal leakage magnetic field, and combine the stress change trend to predict the tendency of cracks in the joint.
By predicting the crack trend of welded joints, it can be prevented or repaired in a timely manner, improve the safety of equipment operation, and avoid serious safety hazards caused by cracks.
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Figure CN119619271A_ABST
Abstract
Description
Technical Field
[0001] The present disclosure relates to the technical field of thermal power generation, and in particular to a crack prediction method, device, electronic device and computer-readable storage medium. Background Art
[0002] Coal-fired power plants are moving towards supercritical high-parameter development, which puts higher requirements on the thermal strength and high-temperature oxidation resistance of boiler materials. 9Cr steels such as P91 and P92 with high thermal strength, good welding process performance and low price and Cr content of 9% to 12% are widely used in 9Cr steel pipelines of high-parameter thermal power plants.
[0003] As the running time of the unit increases, the pipes gradually age, and the metallographic structure and mechanical properties gradually decline. However, for 9Cr steels such as P91 and P92, the more serious thing is the generation of IV-type cracks in the fine-grained area of the welded joints. Once formed, they expand rapidly and even cause the entire circle of the welded joint to crack, posing serious safety hazards to the unit. Summary of the invention
[0004] In view of the above situation, the embodiments of the present application provide a crack prediction method, device, electronic device and computer-readable storage medium, which aim to solve the above problems or at least partially solve the above problems.
[0005] In a first aspect, an embodiment of the present application provides a crack prediction method, the method comprising: determining a leakage magnetic field at a welding joint to be detected; and predicting a tendency of cracks to form in the welding joint to be detected based on the leakage magnetic field at the welding joint to be detected.
[0006] In a second aspect, an embodiment of the present application also provides a crack prediction device, which includes: a detection module for determining the leakage magnetic field at the weld joint to be detected; and a processing module for predicting the tendency of cracks to occur in the weld joint to be detected based on the leakage magnetic field at the weld joint to be detected.
[0007] In a third aspect, an embodiment of the present application further provides an electronic device, comprising: a processor; and a memory arranged to store computer executable instructions, wherein the executable instructions, when executed, cause the processor to perform the steps of the first aspect described above.
[0008] In a fourth aspect, an embodiment of the present application further provides a computer-readable storage medium, which stores one or more programs. When the one or more programs are executed by an electronic device including multiple application programs, the electronic device executes the steps of the first aspect above.
[0009] At least one of the above-mentioned technical solutions adopted in the embodiments of the present application can achieve the following beneficial effects: by detecting the leakage magnetic field at the welding joint, it is possible to predict whether cracks will occur at the joint, thereby preventing cracks from occurring at the joint or promptly repairing or preventing the locations where cracks may occur, thereby improving the safety of equipment operation. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS
[0010] The drawings described herein are used to provide a further understanding of the present application and constitute a part of the present application. The illustrative embodiments of the present application and their descriptions are used to explain the present application and do not constitute an improper limitation on the present application. In the drawings:
[0011] Figure 1 A schematic diagram of a process flow of a crack prediction method provided in an embodiment of the present application is shown;
[0012] Figure 2 The structure diagram of the crack prediction device provided in the embodiment of the present application is shown;
[0013] Figure 3 A schematic structural diagram of an electronic device provided in an embodiment of the present application is shown. DETAILED DESCRIPTION
[0014] In order to make the purpose, technical solution and advantages of the present application clearer, the technical solution of the present application will be clearly and completely described below in combination with the specific embodiments of the present application and the corresponding drawings. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present application, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments in the present application, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without making creative work are within the scope of protection of the present application.
[0015] It should be noted that the terms "first", "second", etc. in the specification and claims of the present application and the above-mentioned drawings are used to distinguish similar objects, and are not necessarily used to describe a specific order or sequence. It should be understood that such use is interchangeable where appropriate, so that the embodiments of the present application described herein can be implemented in an order other than those illustrated or described herein. In addition, the term "including" and its variants are to be interpreted as open-ended terms meaning "including but not limited to".
[0016] As mentioned in the background technology, coal-fired thermal power units are moving towards the direction of supercritical high-parameter development, which puts higher requirements on the thermal strength and high-temperature oxidation resistance of boiler materials. 9Cr steels such as P91 and P92 with high thermal strength, good welding process performance and low price and Cr content of 9% to 12% are widely used in 9Cr steel pipelines of high-parameter thermal power units.
[0017] As the running time of the unit increases, the pipes gradually age, and the metallographic structure and mechanical properties gradually decline. However, for 9Cr steels such as P91 and P92, the more serious thing is the generation of IV-type cracks in the fine-grained area of the welded joints. Once formed, they expand rapidly and even cause the entire circle of the welded joint to crack, posing serious safety hazards to the unit.
[0018] The IV-type creep cracking process of 9Cr steel welded joints is a creep loss process in the fine grain zone of the welded joint. During the welding process, the carbides on the coarse austenite grain boundaries in the wood are not completely dissolved, but precipitated on the grain boundaries of the fine grain zone formed after welding. During the high-temperature creep process, the carbides that play a strengthening role in the fine grain zone are reduced, while the carbides on the grain boundaries become larger and form new coarse carbides, which are called nucleation sources of creep holes, resulting in a decrease in the creep performance of the fine grain zone. When the creep holes on the grain boundaries increase, aggregate and connect, grain boundary separation will occur. As the separated grain boundaries continue to increase, microcracks are formed on the original austenite grain boundaries until macro cracking occurs. The IV-type crack is essentially the aggregation and growth of creep voids under stress, and the IV-type crack in the stress concentration zone is the first to initiate. When the stress of the welded joint changes, its magnetic properties will change.
[0019] Therefore, by detecting the stress condition of the welded joint, the development trend of type IV cracks can be predicted, providing technical support for the safe and stable operation of the pipeline.
[0020] The present application is described in detail below through specific embodiments.
[0021] Figure 1 The schematic diagram of the process of the crack prediction method provided in the embodiment of the present application is shown. Figure 1 It can be seen that the present application at least includes step S101-step S102:
[0022] Step S101: determining the leakage magnetic field at the welding joint to be detected.
[0023] The welded joint to be tested is a 9Cr steel welded joint. Of course, other welded joints applicable to the embodiment of the present application are also included in the protection scope of the present application.
[0024] In some embodiments, a leakage magnetic field sensor is used to detect the leakage magnetic field at the welding joint to be detected. The leakage magnetic field sensor is, for example, a Hall element, a giant magnetoresistance sensor, a coil sensor, a magnetoelectric sensor, etc.
[0025] Among them, the leakage magnetic field includes tangential leakage magnetic field and normal leakage magnetic field. Tangential leakage magnetic field refers to the leakage magnetic field component parallel to the surface of the weld joint. When the joint is magnetized, if there are defects (such as cracks or holes), these defects will interrupt the continuity of the magnetic induction lines, causing the magnetic flux to leak along both sides of the defects, forming a tangential leakage magnetic field. The intensity and distribution of the tangential leakage magnetic field can reflect the size and shape of the defect and the degree of influence of the defect on the magnetic flux lines. The normal leakage magnetic field refers to the leakage magnetic field component perpendicular to the surface of the weld joint. When defects exist, the magnetic flux will leak perpendicular to the surface of the joint, forming a normal leakage magnetic field. The existence and changes of the normal leakage magnetic field can be used to identify open defects on the surface of the material, such as cracks.
[0026] Step S102: predicting the tendency of cracks to form in the weld joint to be inspected based on the leakage magnetic field at the weld joint to be inspected.
[0027] The crack is a type IV crack. The trend of cracking in the weld joint indicates that the weld joint has not cracked yet, but based on the current leakage magnetic field prediction, cracks may appear at some time in the future, as well as the probability of cracking.
[0028] from Figure 1 It can be seen from the method shown that the present application predicts whether cracks will occur at the joint by detecting the leakage magnetic field at the pipeline welding joint, thereby preventing cracks from occurring at the joint or promptly repairing or preventing the location where cracks may occur, thereby improving the safety of the joint operation.
[0029] In some embodiments of the present application, in step S102, the stress and stress change trend at the weld joint to be inspected can be determined by detecting the leakage magnetic field at the weld joint to be inspected, and then the tendency of cracks in the joint can be predicted by the stress and stress change trend.
[0030] Specifically, a first correlation between leakage magnetic field and stress is determined in advance, and the stress at the weld joint to be detected is determined by searching the first correlation based on the leakage magnetic field at the weld joint to be detected. Further, the stress change trend at the weld joint to be detected is determined by comparing the stress at the weld joint to be detected with the stress data at the weld joint to be detected determined historically. For example, the historical stress data at the weld joint to be detected is 10Pa at 7, 11Pa at 10, and 12Pa at 1. The stress at 4 is 13Pa at the current time. It can be seen that the stress change trend is an increase of 1Pa every 3 hours.
[0031] The first correlation is determined in the following manner: using a leakage magnetic field sensor to detect the leakage magnetic field of a defect-free part of a normal welded joint after normal heat treatment. Using a leakage magnetic field sensor to detect the leakage magnetic field of an in-service welded joint subjected to different known stresses, and obtaining multiple sets of stress and leakage magnetic field data to calibrate the first correlation between the leakage magnetic field and the stress.
[0032] In some embodiments of the present application, the trend of predicting the joint generation trend by stress and stress change trend is specifically determined based on the second correlation relationship. The second correlation relationship is a predetermined correspondence between different stresses and crack generation. Specifically, the cracks generated in the welded joint under different stresses are detected, and the second correlation relationship between different stresses and cracks is determined by obtaining multiple sets of stress and crack data.
[0033] Specifically, based on the stress of the welded joint to be detected, the second association relationship is searched to determine whether the stress will cause cracks at this time. If no cracks occur at this time, whether cracks will occur in the welded joint in the future is determined based on the stress change trend of the welded joint to be detected and the second association relationship. For example, the stress change trend is an increase of 1Pa every 3 hours, the current stress is 20Pa, and the second association relationship indicates that cracks will occur in the welded joint when the stress is 22Pa. The crack generation trend of the welded joint to be detected is that cracks may occur after 6 hours. Furthermore, the crack size (such as length and width) of the welded joint to be detected that has a crack generation trend can also be determined based on the second association relationship.
[0034] In the embodiments of the present application, by predicting the trend of cracks in the welded joint, it is possible to determine whether cracks will occur in the welded joint in the future as well as the time and size of the future cracks, so that technicians can prevent cracks in the joint in advance and protect the safe operation of the equipment.
[0035] In some embodiments of the present application, when predicting the tendency of a weld joint to develop cracks, the weld joint with the tendency to develop cracks is monitored in real time, and the real-time leakage magnetic field is compared with the historical leakage magnetic field data of the weld joint, and / or the real-time leakage magnetic field of the weld joint is compared with the leakage magnetic field data of the surrounding area to determine whether cracks have already occurred in the weld joint.
[0036] Among them, array magnetic flux leakage sensors are used to monitor the welding joints in real time.
[0037] Specifically, when the real-time leakage magnetic field data differs greatly from the historical leakage magnetic field data (for example, the difference is greater than a preset error value), it can be confirmed that a crack has occurred in the weld joint, causing the leakage magnetic field to change. And / or, when the real-time leakage magnetic field data differs greatly from the leakage magnetic field of the surrounding area (for example, the difference is greater than a preset error value), it can be confirmed that a crack has occurred in the weld joint.
[0038] In other embodiments, the real-time leakage magnetic field, the first correlation and the second correlation are used to determine whether a crack has occurred in the weld joint at this time. Specifically, the stress corresponding to the real-time leakage magnetic field is determined by the real-time leakage magnetic field and the first correlation, and whether the stress at this time has caused a crack is determined by the stress and the second correlation.
[0039] In the embodiment of the present application, by detecting the leakage magnetic field of the welding joint, it can be confirmed whether the welding joint has cracks, so that the technicians can repair the welding joint immediately.
[0040] In some embodiments of the present application, a crack prediction device is provided, and the crack prediction device corresponds one-to-one to the crack prediction method in the above embodiment. Figure 2 As shown, the crack prediction device includes: a detection module 201 and a processing module 202. The detailed description of each functional module is as follows:
[0041] A detection module 201 is used to determine the leakage magnetic field at the welding joint to be detected;
[0042] The processing module 202 is used to predict the tendency of the weld joint to be detected to generate cracks based on the leakage magnetic field at the weld joint to be detected.
[0043] In some embodiments of the present application, in the above-mentioned device, the processing module 202 is specifically used to determine the stress and stress change trend at the weld joint to be detected based on the leakage magnetic field at the weld joint to be detected; based on the stress and stress change trend at the weld joint to be detected, predict the tendency of cracks to occur in the weld joint to be detected.
[0044] In some embodiments of the present application, in the above-mentioned device, the processing module 202 is specifically used to determine a first correlation relationship between leakage magnetic field and stress; through the first correlation relationship, based on the leakage magnetic field at the weld joint to be detected, the stress at the weld joint to be detected is determined; based on the stress at the weld joint to be detected and the historical stress data of the weld joint to be detected, the stress change trend at the weld joint to be detected is determined.
[0045] In some embodiments of the present application, in the above-mentioned device, the processing module 202 is specifically used to determine the leakage magnetic field at the defect-free location of a normal pipeline welding joint after heat treatment; detect the leakage magnetic field at the in-service pipeline welding joint subjected to different stresses; based on the leakage magnetic field at the defect-free location and the leakage magnetic field at different stresses, determine the first correlation relationship between the leakage magnetic field and the stress.
[0046] In some embodiments of the present application, in the above-mentioned device, the processing module 202 is specifically used to determine a second correlation relationship between different stresses and crack generation; through the second correlation relationship, based on the stress at the weld joint to be detected and the stress change trend, the tendency of crack generation in the weld joint to be detected is predicted.
[0047] In some embodiments of the present application, in the above-mentioned device, the processing module 202 is specifically used to monitor the real-time leakage magnetic field at the welding joint with a tendency to generate cracks; compare the real-time leakage magnetic field of the welding joint with the historical leakage magnetic field data of the welding joint, and / or compare the real-time leakage magnetic field of the welding joint with the leakage magnetic field data of the surrounding area to determine whether cracks have occurred in the welding joint.
[0048] In some embodiments of the present application, in the above-mentioned device, the crack is a type IV crack, and the weld joint to be detected is a 9Cr steel weld joint.
[0049] It should be noted that any of the above-mentioned crack prediction devices can implement the above-mentioned crack prediction method one-to-one, which will not be repeated here.
[0050] Figure 3 FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram showing the structure of an electronic device provided in an embodiment of the present application. Figure 3 As shown, at the hardware level, the electronic device includes a processor, and optionally also includes an internal bus, a network interface, and a memory. Among them, the memory may include a memory, such as a high-speed random access memory (RAM), and may also include a non-volatile memory (non-volatile memory), such as at least one disk storage, etc. Of course, the electronic device may also include hardware required for other services.
[0051] The processor, network interface and memory can be interconnected through an internal bus, which can be an ISA (Industry Standard Architecture) bus, a PCI (Peripheral Component Interconnect) bus or an EISA (Extended Industry Standard Architecture) bus. The bus can be divided into an address bus, a data bus, a control bus, etc. For ease of representation, Figure 3 Only one bidirectional arrow is used in the diagram, but this does not mean that there is only one bus or only one type of bus.
[0052] The memory is used to store programs. Specifically, the program may include program code, and the program code includes computer operation instructions. The memory may include internal memory and non-volatile memory, and provides instructions and data to the processor.
[0053] The processor reads the corresponding computer program from the non-volatile memory into the memory and then runs it, forming a crack prediction device at the logical level. The processor executes the program stored in the memory and is specifically used to execute the above method.
[0054] The processor may be an integrated circuit chip with signal processing capabilities. In the implementation process, each step of the above method can be completed by an integrated logic circuit of hardware in the processor or an instruction in the form of software. The above processor may be a general-purpose processor, including a central processing unit (CPU), a network processor (NP), etc.; it may also be a digital signal processor (DSP), an application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC), a field-programmable gate array (FPGA) or other programmable logic devices, discrete gates or transistor logic devices, discrete hardware components. The methods, steps and logic block diagrams disclosed in the embodiments of the present application can be implemented or executed. The general-purpose processor may be a microprocessor or the processor may also be any conventional processor, etc. The steps of the method disclosed in the embodiments of the present application can be directly embodied as a hardware decoding processor to be executed, or a combination of hardware and software modules in the decoding processor to be executed. The software module may be located in a mature storage medium in the field such as a random access memory, a flash memory, a read-only memory, a programmable read-only memory or an electrically erasable programmable memory, a register, etc. The storage medium is located in the memory, and the processor reads the information in the memory and completes the steps of the above method in combination with its hardware.
[0055] The electronic device can execute the crack prediction method provided by multiple embodiments of the present application, and realize a crack prediction device in Figure 2 The functions of the illustrated embodiment will not be described in detail in the embodiments of the present application.
[0056] An embodiment of the present application also proposes a computer-readable storage medium, which stores one or more programs, and the one or more programs include instructions. When the instructions are executed by an electronic device including multiple application programs, the electronic device can execute the crack prediction method provided by multiple embodiments of the present application.
[0057] Those skilled in the art will appreciate that the embodiments of the present application may be provided as methods, systems, or computer program products. Therefore, the present application may adopt the form of a complete hardware embodiment, a complete software embodiment, or an embodiment in combination with software and hardware. Moreover, the present application may adopt the form of a computer program product implemented in one or more computer-usable storage media (including but not limited to disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, etc.) that include computer-usable program code.
[0058] The present application is described with reference to the flowcharts and / or block diagrams of the methods, devices (systems), and computer program products according to the embodiments of the present application. It should be understood that each process and / or box in the flowchart and / or block diagram, as well as the combination of the processes and / or boxes in the flowchart and / or block diagram, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions can be provided to a processor of a general-purpose computer, a special-purpose computer, an embedded processor, or other programmable data processing device to generate a machine, so that the instructions executed by the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing device generate instructions for implementing the processes in the flowchart and / or block diagram. Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A device that provides the functions specified in a block or multiple blocks.
[0059] These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable memory capable of directing a computer or other programmable data processing device to operate in a specific manner, so that the instructions stored in the computer-readable memory produce an article of manufacture comprising an instruction device, which implements the process Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A function specified in one or more boxes.
[0060] These computer program instructions can also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing device so that a series of operating steps are executed on the computer or other programmable device to produce a computer-implemented process, thereby providing instructions for implementing the process. Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A step that specifies a function in one or more boxes.
[0061] In a typical configuration, a computing device includes one or more processors (CPU), input / output interfaces, network interfaces, and memory.
[0062] The memory may include non-permanent storage in a computer-readable medium, random access memory (RAM) and / or non-volatile memory in the form of read-only memory (ROM) or flash RAM. The memory is an example of a computer-readable medium.
[0063] Computer readable media include permanent and non-permanent, removable and non-removable media that can be implemented by any method or technology to store information. Information can be computer readable instructions, data structures, program modules or other data. Examples of computer storage media include, but are not limited to, phase change memory (PRAM), static random access memory (SRAM), dynamic random access memory (DRAM), other types of random access memory (RAM), read-only memory (ROM), electrically erasable programmable read-only memory (EEPROM), flash memory or other memory technology, compact disk read-only memory (CD-ROM), digital versatile disk (DVD) or other optical storage, magnetic cassettes, magnetic tape magnetic disk storage or other magnetic storage devices or any other non-transmission media that can be used to store information that can be accessed by a computing device. As defined herein, computer readable media does not include temporary computer readable media (transitory media), such as modulated data signals and carrier waves.
[0064] It should also be noted that the terms "include", "comprises" or any other variations thereof are intended to cover non-exclusive inclusion, so that a process, method, commodity or device including a series of elements includes not only those elements, but also other elements not explicitly listed, or also includes elements inherent to such process, method, commodity or device. In the absence of further restrictions, an element defined by the sentence "comprises a ..." does not exclude the presence of other identical elements in the process, method, commodity or device including the element.
[0065] Those skilled in the art will appreciate that the embodiments of the present application may be provided as methods, systems or computer program products. Therefore, the present application may adopt the form of a complete hardware embodiment, a complete software embodiment or an embodiment in combination with software and hardware. Moreover, the present application may adopt the form of a computer program product implemented on one or more computer-usable storage media (including but not limited to disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, etc.) that contain computer-usable program code.
[0066] The above are only embodiments of the present application and are not intended to limit the present application. For those skilled in the art, the present application may have various changes and variations. Any modification, equivalent replacement, improvement, etc. made within the spirit and principle of the present application should be included within the scope of the claims of the present application.
Claims
1. A crack prediction method, characterized in that: The method comprises: Determine the leakage magnetic field at the weld joint to be inspected; Based on the leakage magnetic field at the weld joint to be inspected, the tendency of the weld joint to be inspected to generate cracks is predicted.
2. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The method of predicting the tendency of cracks in the weld joint to be detected based on the leakage magnetic field at the weld joint to be detected includes: Determining the stress and stress variation trend at the weld joint to be detected based on the leakage magnetic field at the weld joint to be detected; Based on the stress at the weld joint to be inspected and the stress variation trend, the tendency of the weld joint to be inspected to generate cracks is predicted.
3. The method according to claim 2, characterized in that The determining the stress and stress variation trend at the weld joint to be detected based on the leakage magnetic field at the weld joint to be detected includes: Determine a first correlation between leakage magnetic field and stress; Determine the stress at the weld joint to be detected based on the leakage magnetic field at the weld joint to be detected by using the first association relationship; Based on the stress at the weld joint to be detected and the historical stress data of the weld joint to be detected, the stress change trend at the weld joint to be detected is determined.
4. The method according to claim 3, characterized in that The determining of a first correlation between the leakage magnetic field and the stress includes: Determine the leakage magnetic field of the normal pipeline welding joint without defects after heat treatment; Detect leakage magnetic field at different stress points of in-service pipeline welding joints; Based on the leakage magnetic field at the defect-free location and the leakage magnetic field at different stresses, a first correlation relationship between the leakage magnetic field and the stress is determined.
5. The method according to claim 2, characterized in that: The method of predicting the tendency of cracks in the weld joint to be detected based on the stress and stress variation tendency at the weld joint to be detected includes: Determine the second correlation between different stresses and crack generation; By using the second association relationship, based on the stress at the weld joint to be detected and the stress variation trend, the tendency of the weld joint to be detected to generate cracks is predicted.
6. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The method further comprises: Monitor the real-time leakage magnetic field at welded joints with crack initiation tendency; The real-time leakage magnetic field of the welding joint is compared with the historical leakage magnetic field data of the welding joint, and / or the real-time leakage magnetic field of the welding joint is compared with the leakage magnetic field data of the surrounding area to determine whether cracks have occurred in the welding joint.
7. The method according to any one of claims 1 to 6, characterized in that: The crack is a type IV crack, and the weld joint to be tested is a 9Cr steel weld joint.
8. A crack prediction device, characterized in that: The device comprises: A detection module, used for determining the leakage magnetic field at the welding joint to be detected; A processing module is used to predict the tendency of cracks to occur in the weld joint to be detected based on the leakage magnetic field at the weld joint to be detected.
9. An electronic device, comprising: processor; And a memory arranged to store computer executable instructions, characterized in that when the executable instructions are executed, the processor executes the steps of the crack prediction method according to any one of claims 1-7.
10. A computer-readable storage medium storing one or more programs, characterized in that: When the one or more programs are executed by an electronic device including a plurality of application programs, the electronic device executes the steps of the crack prediction method according to any one of claims 1 to 7.