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Transfer traffic predicting method based on Markov predicting method

A prediction method and traffic volume technology, applied in the direction of traffic flow detection, etc., can solve the problems of lack of OD data, lack of data, and inability to access data, and achieve the effect of simplifying the calculation steps of prediction, improving work efficiency, and predicting work smoothly and effectively.

Inactive Publication Date: 2014-04-02
GUIZHOU PROV TRAFFIC SCI INST
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Problems solved by technology

However, newly-built highways generally lack OD data before the survey year, and sometimes some data cannot be obtained due to differences in time, place, and method.
When using the OD data of the survey year to calculate the state transition probability, there will be a lack of data to calculate the initial state

Method used

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Embodiment Construction

[0017] The present invention will be further described below:

[0018] The present invention comprises the following steps:

[0019] (1) Calculate the state transition probability matrix;

[0020] (2) Prediction of traffic volume transfer rate in OD subregion;

[0021] (3) The determination of the traffic volume transfer coefficient of the relevant roads is generally divided into two situations when determining the traffic volume transfer coefficient of the relevant roads. One is not to consider the traffic volume transfer in the OD partition; When the traffic volume in the district is transferred, the following two steps (3.1) and (3.2) may not be necessary, but the calculation of step (3.3) can be carried out directly;

[0022] (3.1) OD partition transfer proportion, which refers to the proportion of the traffic volume in each starting area to the total traffic volume in all OD areas. The calculation in this step is to prepare for the calculation of the relevant road traff...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a transfer traffic predicting method based on a Markov predicting method. The transfer traffic predicting method comprises the following steps: firstly, calculating a state transfer probability matrix; secondly, predicting a traffic transfer rate through an OD (origin destination) subregion; thirdly, determining a relevant road traffic transfer coefficient through determining relevant road traffic transfer coefficients; finally, by multiplying relevant road traffic prediction with corresponding transfer coefficients, predicting each traffic transfer. Compared with the prior art, the transfer traffic predicting method is improved on the basis of the Markov predicting method, thus quickly and effectively calculating all kinds of predicted transfer traffic, simplifying the conventional predicting calculating steps, improving the work efficiency, and making prediction more smooth and effective; therefore, the transfer traffic predicting method has popularization and application values.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a traffic volume prediction method, in particular to a traffic transfer traffic volume prediction method based on a Markov prediction method. Background technique [0002] A new road will inevitably attract some traffic. The volume of traffic transferred from relevant roads to new roads generally constitutes the basic traffic volume of new roads. Therefore, the determination of transfer traffic plays a very important role in the analysis and prediction of traffic volume of newly built highways, and cannot be underestimated or ignored. Transfer traffic is often calculated based on OD survey data. The OD survey of new highway projects can only be carried out in a relatively short period of time due to reasons such as manpower, funds, and time. Therefore, we have to use static analysis to determine the transfer traffic volume in the future. However, due to the lack of consideration of the change and development of the transfer...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G08G1/01
Inventor 石连富陈薇费小申干鸿胡绍刚
Owner GUIZHOU PROV TRAFFIC SCI INST
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