The invention provides a method for modeling a
wind power output
time sequence. The method can be used for researches on the planning of a power
system, the reliability evaluation of the power
system, the medium / long-term scheduling of the
wind power, and the like. The method is based on a historical
wind power output
time sequence, and comprises the following steps of: first analyzing the characteristics of the historical wind
power output time sequence to obtain indexes of fluctuation characteristics and the like of wind
power output of a wind power
plant in a specified place; then filtering the historical wind
power output time sequence, and performing wind process and fragment division, and counting a wind process
transfer probability and the probability distribution of each fragment; and finally simulating and reconstructing the wind power output time sequence by adopting a sequential sampling method, and inspecting and verifying the reconstructed time sequence. The output time sequence of the wind power
plant is accurately evaluated, wind power output characteristics are maximally simulated, and the method can be used for evaluating the reliability of wind
power capacity, accurately determining the position of wind power in a power
system and guiding the scheduling running of the power system.