Method for predicting time sequence of number of people served by base stations based on space-time transfer probabilities of mobile phones

A technology of transition probability and mobile phone location, applied in the field of population forecasting, which can solve the problems of forecasting, the inability to guarantee the number of people in the study area, and the lack of consideration of the influence of spatial factors.

Active Publication Date: 2017-05-31
WUHAN UNIV
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Problems solved by technology

The former is based on the time series, item by item, and sequentially calculates the time series average number containing a certain number of items, so as to make predictions. However, the moving average method does not consider the influence of spatial factors on the movement behavior of the crowd. In addition, emergencies will also affect The prediction results have a relatively large impact; the second method is based on the ARI

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  • Method for predicting time sequence of number of people served by base stations based on space-time transfer probabilities of mobile phones
  • Method for predicting time sequence of number of people served by base stations based on space-time transfer probabilities of mobile phones
  • Method for predicting time sequence of number of people served by base stations based on space-time transfer probabilities of mobile phones

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[0015] In order to facilitate the understanding and implementation of the present invention by those of ordinary skill in the art, the present invention will be further described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and embodiments. It should be understood that the embodiments described herein are only used to illustrate and explain the present invention, but not to limit it. this invention.

[0016] see figure 1 , the present invention provides a method for predicting the number of base station service numbers based on the time-space transition probability of mobile phone location, comprising the following steps:

[0017] Step 1: Calculate the total number of people in the service area of ​​the mobile phone base station within the same time period by using the space-time trajectory data of the mobile phone;

[0018] Step 2: Use the time and space trajectory data of the mobile phone to divide the movement trajectory of the crowd, and calculate the numbe...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a method for predicting a time sequence of number of people served by base stations based on space-time transfer probabilities of mobile phones. The method comprises the following steps: calculating the total number of people within base station service areas of the mobile phones within an equal time period by using space-time orbit data of the mobile phones; dividing people moving orbits by using the space-time orbit data of the mobile phones, and calculating the number of people coming back and forth between the base stations within adjacent time periods in a research area; based on related theory of Bayesian and Markov chains, calculating the transfer probabilities of mobile phone users within target base stations to occur in the base stations at a current moment according to historical data; calculating the transfer probabilities of the mobile phone users within the target base stations to occur in the base stations within different time periods to construct a complete space-time transfer probability matrix in the research area; and predicting the number of people served within the base station ranges of the mobile phones in the research area with the relatively stable total number of people by using the complete space-time transfer probability matrix. The method disclosed by the invention has the advantages of low data acquisition cost, simple model structure and high prediction efficiency.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of population prediction, and relates to a method for predicting the number of dynamic population in a region, in particular to a method for predicting the number of people served by a base station based on the time-space transition probability of mobile phone locations. [0002] technical background [0003] Comparing the two traditional methods of population forecasting in large-scale open areas are based on the evolution of time series correlation theory. The first method is the moving average method, and the other is the ARIMA method. The former is based on the time series, moving item by item, and calculating the sequential time average containing a certain number of items in turn, so as to make predictions, but the moving average method does not consider the influence of spatial factors on the movement behavior of the crowd, and emergencies will also affect the population. The prediction results have a ...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): H04W4/02G06Q10/04
CPCG06Q10/04H04W4/021H04W4/029
Inventor 方志祥倪雅倩张韬冯明翔
Owner WUHAN UNIV
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