The invention discloses a method for predicting a
time sequence of number of people served by base stations based on space-
time transfer probabilities of mobile phones. The method comprises the following steps: calculating the total number of people within
base station service areas of the mobile phones within an
equal time period by using space-time
orbit data of the mobile phones; dividing people moving orbits by using the space-time
orbit data of the mobile phones, and calculating the number of people coming back and forth between the base stations within adjacent time periods in a research area; based on related theory of Bayesian and Markov chains, calculating the transfer probabilities of
mobile phone users within target base stations to occur in the base stations at a current moment according to historical data; calculating the transfer probabilities of the
mobile phone users within the target base stations to occur in the base stations within different time periods to construct a complete space-
time transfer probability matrix in the research area; and predicting the number of people served within the
base station ranges of the mobile phones in the research area with the relatively stable total number of people by using the complete space-
time transfer probability matrix. The method disclosed by the invention has the advantages of low
data acquisition cost, simple model structure and high prediction efficiency.