The present application relates to the technical field of
machine learning and
population prediction, and particularly relates to a
population prediction method and
system based on adaptive
ridge regression and multi-model stacking; firstly, the original
population data is preprocessed by anomaly value repair, first-order difference,
standardization and PCA dimension reduction to generate
time series features; then, three models of
multilayer perceptron,
random forest and
linear regression are constructed, cross-validation and grid search are used to optimize the hyperparameters and complete the training; then, through the hierarchical stacking strategy, the prediction output of the basic model is input into the
ridge regression sub-model as a new feature; finally, based on the performance of each basic model in different population characteristic prediction tasks, the weight proportion is dynamically adjusted through the regularization parameter, and the accurate prediction of multi-dimensional population characteristics is realized. The present application effectively integrates the advantages of each model, improves the prediction accuracy and stability of indicators such as
total population, gender structure, urban-rural flow, and provides a scientific basis for population strategy formulation,
public resource planning and risk warning.