Method for modeling wind power output time sequence

Abstract

The invention provides a method for modeling a wind power output time sequence. The method can be used for researches on the planning of a power system, the reliability evaluation of the power system, the medium/long-term scheduling of the wind power, and the like. The method is based on a historical wind power output time sequence, and comprises the following steps of: first analyzing the characteristics of the historical wind power output time sequence to obtain indexes of fluctuation characteristics and the like of wind power output of a wind power plant in a specified place; then filtering the historical wind power output time sequence, and performing wind process and fragment division, and counting a wind process transfer probability and the probability distribution of each fragment; and finally simulating and reconstructing the wind power output time sequence by adopting a sequential sampling method, and inspecting and verifying the reconstructed time sequence. The output time sequence of the wind power plant is accurately evaluated, wind power output characteristics are maximally simulated, and the method can be used for evaluating the reliability of wind power capacity, accurately determining the position of wind power in a power system and guiding the scheduling running of the power system.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of new energy power generation, and relates to a time series modeling method of wind power output. Background technique [0002] The rapid development of wind power has injected new vitality into the development of China's economy, but it has also brought great challenges to the safe and stable operation of the power system. [0003] In terms of power system planning, how to ensure the safe and economical operation of the planned power system in the future is an urgent problem under the premise of great uncertainty in wind power; From randomness, system adjustment ability and many other considerations. The existing research trend is gradually changing from deterministic analysis to probabilistic analysis. By analyzing the characteristics of historical wind power output, stochastic production is used to simulate the operation of the future power system, and various operating indicators of the system are counted. [0...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

Most of the existing research is to model the wind power time series, and then carry out Monte Carlo sampling simulation on the operation of the power system according to the wind power time series model, and count various operating indicators to estimate the impact of wind power access on the reliability of the power system; this completely Stochastic modeling methods do not take into account the temporal correlation of wind power output time series

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