Power demand change early warning method and system

Abstract

The invention provides a power demand change early warning method. The power demand change early warning method comprises the steps that stationarity test is carried out on preset index data in an alternative index bank and preset benchmark index data; index data are removed according to a stationarity test result if the index data and the benchmark index data are not integrated of the same order; if the index data and the benchmark index data are integrated of the same order, whether the index data and the benchmark index data are in co-integration or not is judged, if not, the index data are removed, and if yes, the fluctuation relationship between the index data and the benchmark index data is judged; the index data, the benchmark index data and the fluctuation relationship are input into a neural network prediction model, and a power demand prediction value is obtained; a historical power demand actual value within the preset period is obtained, a prosperity index is calculated according to the power demand prediction value, and an early warning message is generated. The invention further provides a power demand change early warning system. The prosperity index reflecting the power demand changes can be obtained rapidly, and the early warning message is given out for the power demand changes.

Description

technical field

[0001] The invention relates to the technical field of power demand, in particular to a method for early warning of power demand change and a power demand change early warning system. Background technique

[0002] The production and supply of electricity is an indispensable condition for my country's economic development, social progress and improvement of people's living standards. In recent years, with the continuous development of the national economy, electricity has been growing as an important energy guarantee. The power industry will plan and arrange the total power production in advance according to the forecasted power demand. From a national perspective, the current supply and demand of power cannot be fully and effectively guaranteed. The unbalanced development of regional power supply and demand has existed in my country for a long time. During the peak power consumption in winter and summer, power cuts often occur, which brings great inconvenienc...

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