Power demand change early warning method and system

A technology of electric power demand and early warning system, which is applied in the field of electric power demand change early warning and electric power demand change early warning system.

Active Publication Date: 2014-08-20
GUANGDONG POWER GRID CO LTD
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Problems solved by technology

The power industry will plan and arrange the total power production in advance according to the forecasted power demand. From a national perspective, the current supply and demand of power cannot be fully and effectively guaranteed.
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  • Power demand change early warning method and system
  • Power demand change early warning method and system
  • Power demand change early warning method and system

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Embodiment Construction

[0026] The present invention will be described in further detail below in conjunction with the embodiments and accompanying drawings, but the embodiments of the present invention are not limited thereto.

[0027] Such as figure 1 As shown, it is a schematic flow chart of an embodiment of a power demand change early warning method of the present invention, including the following steps:

[0028] S11. Perform a stationarity test on each index data in the preset candidate index library and the preset benchmark index data;

[0029] The benchmark indicator data can be the electricity sales in the area that needs early warning. The electricity sales in the area are affected by many factors, such as the time of power outage of users, the number of substations, the number of power supply stations, the absolute capacity of industrial expansion reports, the failure rate of main transformers, raw coal production, and regions. Various factors such as gross domestic product, money supply,...

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Abstract

The invention provides a power demand change early warning method. The power demand change early warning method comprises the steps that stationarity test is carried out on preset index data in an alternative index bank and preset benchmark index data; index data are removed according to a stationarity test result if the index data and the benchmark index data are not integrated of the same order; if the index data and the benchmark index data are integrated of the same order, whether the index data and the benchmark index data are in co-integration or not is judged, if not, the index data are removed, and if yes, the fluctuation relationship between the index data and the benchmark index data is judged; the index data, the benchmark index data and the fluctuation relationship are input into a neural network prediction model, and a power demand prediction value is obtained; a historical power demand actual value within the preset period is obtained, a prosperity index is calculated according to the power demand prediction value, and an early warning message is generated. The invention further provides a power demand change early warning system. The prosperity index reflecting the power demand changes can be obtained rapidly, and the early warning message is given out for the power demand changes.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of power demand, in particular to a method for early warning of power demand change and a power demand change early warning system. Background technique [0002] The production and supply of electricity is an indispensable condition for my country's economic development, social progress and improvement of people's living standards. In recent years, with the continuous development of the national economy, electricity has been growing as an important energy guarantee. The power industry will plan and arrange the total power production in advance according to the forecasted power demand. From a national perspective, the current supply and demand of power cannot be fully and effectively guaranteed. The unbalanced development of regional power supply and demand has existed in my country for a long time. During the peak power consumption in winter and summer, power cuts often occur, which brings great inconvenienc...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
Inventor 纪涵陈山胡志广李丹华于德龙杨晶晶傅柯萌陈倩菱
Owner GUANGDONG POWER GRID CO LTD
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