LEAP-model-based method for predicating medium-and-long-term electricity demand distribution of power grid

A medium-to-long-term, model-based technology, applied in the field of power demand distribution forecasting, can solve problems such as the lack of effective and lack of power demand change laws

Active Publication Date: 2014-11-05
STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA +1
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Problems solved by technology

For the distribution forecast of medium and long-term power demand in various jurisdictions, no effective method system has been formed. The methods used...

Method used

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  • LEAP-model-based method for predicating medium-and-long-term electricity demand distribution of power grid
  • LEAP-model-based method for predicating medium-and-long-term electricity demand distribution of power grid
  • LEAP-model-based method for predicating medium-and-long-term electricity demand distribution of power grid

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Embodiment Construction

[0077] Next, the present invention will be further described by taking the distribution prediction of the medium and long-term power demand of the provincial power grid in various cities as an example.

[0078] Such as figure 1 As shown, a method for forecasting the distribution of medium and long-term power demand in the provincial power grid based on the LEAP model includes the following steps:

[0079] (1) Construct the LEAP model of the provincial terminal energy demand and energy processing and conversion link, and obtain the mid- and long-term power demand forecast value of the provincial power grid based on the LEAP model, including the electricity consumption of the whole society in the province, the electricity consumption of urban and rural residents in the province, The province's per capita domestic electricity consumption, the province's tertiary industry electricity consumption, the province's secondary industry electricity consumption, the province's secondary i...

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Abstract

The invention provides an LEAP-model-based method for predicating medium-and-long-term electricity demand distribution of a power grid. The method comprises the following steps that an LEAP model of a medium-and-long-term terminal energy demand and energy processing and converting link of a region is established; based on the LEAP model, a medium-and-long-term electricity demand predicted value of the power grid of the region is obtained; the distribution of medium-and-long-term region total electricity consumption in all administrative areas is predicated according to electricity utilization departments; a predicated result of the distribution of the medium-and-long-term region total electricity consumption in all the administrative areas is obtained; the distribution of the medium-and-long-term region total maximum load in all the administrative areas is predicated. The method offers a reliable basis to regional power grid planners for mastering of the medium-and-long-term region electricity demand distribution, thereby serving power grid planning better.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of power demand distribution forecasting, in particular to a method for forecasting medium and long-term power demand distribution of power grids based on the LEAP model. Background technique [0002] The medium- and long-term power demand forecast of a certain region's power grid can provide a strong foundation for the regional power grid enterprises to do a good job in future power grid planning and optimize the regional grid structure. The regional power grid power demand index mainly includes the whole society's electricity consumption amount and the maximum load of the whole society. The medium and long-term power demand prediction of regional power grids is quite difficult, and methods such as regression prediction and trend extrapolation are usually used. These methods cannot comprehensively consider the main factors that promote the development of medium and long-term power demand, and the reliabilit...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
CPCY02E40/70Y04S10/50
Inventor 葛斐叶彬王宝杨欣宣宁平石雪梅
Owner STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA
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