Coupling certainty and uncertainty analysis fire risk evaluation method

A risk assessment and deterministic technology, applied in the field of fire risk assessment coupled with deterministic and uncertain analysis, can solve problems such as incomplete knowledge, inaccuracy, and large differences in the results of assessment subjects

Inactive Publication Date: 2018-04-06
CHONGQING UNIVERSITY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
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Problems solved by technology

[0004] (1) Judgment of subjectivity: In the literature on fuzzy evaluation, most of them use the AHP to determine the weight of the index system, while the 1-9 degree scale method in the traditional AHP (AHP) is difficult due to human factors. Subjectivity of judgment, the results of different evaluation subjects vary greatly; in the process of assigning the membership degree of each index by the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method

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  • Coupling certainty and uncertainty analysis fire risk evaluation method
  • Coupling certainty and uncertainty analysis fire risk evaluation method
  • Coupling certainty and uncertainty analysis fire risk evaluation method

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Embodiment Construction

[0082] The present invention mainly solves the uncertain problem in the existing fire risk assessment (random uncertainty brought by fire behavior and fuzzy uncertainty brought by risk assessment. Using the technology coupled with fuzzy theory and evidence theory, the technology solves Problem idea: For the fuzzy uncertainty problem in fire risk assessment, it is planned to use the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process composed of triangular fuzzy number and least square method to obtain the weight of each index, and use triangular membership function to describe the subjective grade language variables; For the random uncertainty of fire accidents, the D-S evidence theory is introduced in the fire risk assessment to reflect the probability of these uncertain issues through the basic mass number of uncertainties.

[0083] Detailed technical scheme (six steps) of the present invention:

[0084] Step (1) Identify risk factors and determine the index system hierarchy;

[0085] Step (2...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a coupling certainty and uncertainty analysis fire risk evaluation method. The method comprises steps that S1, risk factors are identified, and a fire risk evaluation system isestablished; S2, a fuzzy analytic hierarchy method is utilized to determine the index weight of each risk factor; S3, the fuzzy theory is utilized to combine with the confidence to calculate the firerisk of each single factor; S4, the evidence reasoning operator is utilized to synthesize the fire risk of each single factor; S5, an expected utility value is utilized to acquire the clear evaluation result; and S6, the sensitivity analysis method is utilized to verify feasibility of a model.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of fire risk assessment, and in particular relates to a fire risk assessment method coupled with deterministic and uncertain analysis. Background technique [0002] There are three main types of fire risk assessment methods at this stage: qualitative assessment, semi-quantitative assessment and quantitative assessment. Because quantitative evaluation is more accurate than qualitative and semi-quantitative evaluation, quantitative evaluation has become a research hotspot at the present stage. However, quantitative evaluation generally starts from the probability of accidents. Due to the imperfect statistical data, it is difficult to obtain from statistical data at this stage Scientific, reasonable and credible accident probability. Therefore, for the situation where the probability is unknown, there are great difficulties in quantitative risk assessment. And fuzzy mathematics can just solve the situation wh...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/06G06Q40/08G06Q50/26
CPCG06Q10/0635G06Q40/08G06Q50/265
Inventor 米红甫
Owner CHONGQING UNIVERSITY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
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