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Method and device for extracting multi-mode optimal information for rainfall set prediction, and medium

A model information and multi-model technology, applied in the field of multi-model precipitation forecasting, can solve problems such as forecast failure

Pending Publication Date: 2021-10-19
INST OF ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS CHINESE ACADEMY SCI
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Problems solved by technology

However, through evaluation, it is found that even a model system with poor overall performance in precipitation prediction can have good prediction perfor

Method used

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  • Method and device for extracting multi-mode optimal information for rainfall set prediction, and medium
  • Method and device for extracting multi-mode optimal information for rainfall set prediction, and medium
  • Method and device for extracting multi-mode optimal information for rainfall set prediction, and medium

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Embodiment Construction

[0028] The following will clearly and completely describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by persons of ordinary skill in the art without making creative efforts belong to the protection scope of the present invention.

[0029] Multi-mode ensemble methods mostly use ensemble averages, including equal-weight arithmetic mean (formula (1)), and non-equal-weight algorithms (formula (2));

[0030]

[0031]

[0032] Among them, y 1 ,y 2 ,...,y M is the direct prediction result of M modes, y' is the prediction result; α 1 , α 2 ,...,α M are the weight coefficients of the M modes. when α 1 = α 2 =...=α M When the weight coefficient of the optimal mode with good performance is 1, and the weight coefficient of the mode with poor performance is 0, it is the optimal mode aggregation me...

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Abstract

The invention relates to a method and a device for extracting multi-mode optimal information for rainfall set prediction, and a medium, and the method comprises the steps of performing modal decomposition on observed rainfall to obtain spatial distribution and corresponding time coefficients, and obtaining prediction information of a j-th mode related to an i-th mode and a prediction result of the time coefficient of the i-th mode through screening; adopting a step-by-step introduction and step-by-step elimination method to eliminate a result which has a negative effect on a set average result to obtain a set sample subset, performing equal-weight arithmetic averaging to serve as a prediction time coefficient of a corresponding mode, and reconstructing observation rainfall; due to the fact that each mode has a mode with good prediction performance, in the final explanation application model, advantage information of each mode is reserved, and compared with a conventional optimal mode set method, the method fully excavates available information of modes with low prediction performance in conventional evaluation.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of climate prediction, and in particular relates to a method, device and medium for multi-model ensemble prediction of precipitation. Background technique [0002] my country is a high-incidence area of ​​climate disasters, and the huge economic losses every year seriously affect the sustainable development of the country. Therefore, departments such as agriculture, water conservancy, and disaster prevention and mitigation urgently need accurate short-term climate prediction information to serve the national economic construction scientifically and reduce casualties and economic losses caused by climate disasters. Compared with short-term weather forecasting, climate forecasting is not only a matter of the initial value of the atmosphere, but also involves the changes and interactions of the various spheres of the earth system. The variation mechanism of the forecasted objects is very complicated. Therefore, climate f...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06F30/20G06Q50/26
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/26G06F30/20Y02A90/10
Inventor 马洁华孙建奇
Owner INST OF ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS CHINESE ACADEMY SCI
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