Risk evaluation method for transmission capacity of electric network

Abstract

The invention discloses a risk evaluation method for the transmission capacity of an electric network, which comprises the following steps of: aiming at an electric network system, constructing a load model containing distribution network impedance and calculating to obtain the change range of the parameter of the load model; taking the typical load of the load model as a model vector base and multiplying various formation proportions of the typical load and the model vector base to obtain a model vector; calculating to obtain the fuzzy expectation of the parameter of the load model at different temperatures and multiplying the fuzzy expectation at different temperatures and the probability of the occurrence of the temperatures and then totalizing to obtain the fuzzy expectation of the temperatures; dividing the change range of the parameter of the load model into preset equal portions and calculating the transmission power limit of the section and the damping ratio of a generator respectively when the parameter of the load model is changed according to the preset equal portions; sampling the transmission power limit of the section and the damping ratio of the generator by adopting a Monte Carlo method within the change range of the parameter of the load model to obtain the risk evaluation parameter of the load model; and calculating the risk indicator of the transmission capacity of the section of the electric network according to the risk evaluation parameter of the load model.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of power system risk assessment, and more specifically, relates to a risk assessment method for power grid transmission capacity. Background technique [0002] The characteristic of power products is that production-supply-sales are completed at the same time. Among them, "production" refers to the power supply, which is commonly referred to as a power plant; "sales" refers to users, which are power consumers; "Simultaneous completion" means that the power consumption and power generation are always equal, that is to say, how much power is used to generate electricity, and power consumption determines the amount of power generated. [0003] In recent years, with the rapid development of the national economy, power production technology has also been more comprehensively developed, and people's demand for power is also increasing. However, due to historical reasons and many other reasons, my country has the...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0006] At present, in domestic and foreign technologies, there is no method for comprehensive evaluation and research on the risks brought by the parameter uncertainty of the load model caused by temperature changes to the transmission capacity of the power grid.

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