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A method for extracting reservoir dispatching function based on joint probability distribution

A joint probability distribution and extraction method technology, applied in the field of reservoir dispatching function extraction based on joint probability distribution

Active Publication Date: 2019-02-01
江西省水利科学研究院
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Problems solved by technology

At present, there is no literature that applies the joint probability distribution method based on the Copula theory to the extraction of reservoir scheduling functions

Method used

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  • A method for extracting reservoir dispatching function based on joint probability distribution
  • A method for extracting reservoir dispatching function based on joint probability distribution
  • A method for extracting reservoir dispatching function based on joint probability distribution

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Embodiment Construction

[0024] The present invention will be further described below by means of embodiments and in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

[0025] Such as Figure 1-Figure 2 As shown, a reservoir scheduling function extraction method based on the joint probability distribution collects the basic data of the reservoir and long series of measured runoff data, performs deterministic optimal scheduling of the reservoir to obtain the optimal scheduling process sample series, and determines the edge of the decision variables and state variables Probability distribution function, and use the Copula function to construct the joint probability distribution function of decision variables and state variables, and then deduce the conditional probability distribution function of decision variables when the state variable is given, and carry out reservoir scheduling function extraction and uncertainty analysis. figure 1 It is the calculation flowchart of the present embodiment, and it is carr...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a method for extracting reservoir dispatching function based on joint probability distribution. By collecting reservoir basic data and long series of measured runoff data, theoptimal dispatching process sample series are obtained by deterministic optimal dispatching of reservoirs. The marginal probability distribution functions of decision variables and state variables aredetermined, and the joint probability distribution functions of decision variables and state variables are constructed by using Copula function, then the conditional probability distribution functions of decision variables are deduced when the state variables are given, and the reservoir operation functions are extracted and the uncertainties are analyzed. The reservoir dispatching function extracted by the invention can accurately capture the inherent non-linear and heteroscedasticity correlation structure of the decision variable and the state variable, and the calculated confidence interval estimation value can quantitatively evaluate the uncertainty of the reservoir dispatching, thereby providing a beneficial reference basis for the decision risk analysis.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of reservoir dispatching, in particular to a reservoir dispatching function extraction method based on joint probability distribution. Background technique [0002] The reservoir dispatching function is an important form of reservoir dispatching rules. It expresses the functional relationship between the amount of water discharged from the reservoir during the facing period (decision variable), the current storage capacity, and the amount of water entering the reservoir during the facing period (state variable). An important basis for actual scheduling operations. The implicit stochastic optimization method is usually used to formulate the reservoir operation function, that is, firstly, according to the long series of measured runoff data, the deterministic optimization method is used to obtain the optimal operation process sample, and then the sample is statistically analyzed to obtain the optimal operation function ...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/06G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/0631G06Q10/0635G06Q10/0637G06Q50/06
Inventor 刘章君许新发胡建民温天福成静清胡久伟徐珺恺
Owner 江西省水利科学研究院
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