Multi-mode integrated rainfall forecasting method and device

A multi-model and model generation technology, applied in forecasting, instrumentation, data processing applications, etc., can solve problems such as poor precipitation integrated forecasting effect

Inactive Publication Date: 2019-08-23
SHENZHEN INST OF ADVANCED TECH CHINESE ACAD OF SCI +1
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Problems solved by technology

[0008] The embodiment of the present invention provides a multi-mode integrated precipitation forecasting method a

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  • Multi-mode integrated rainfall forecasting method and device
  • Multi-mode integrated rainfall forecasting method and device
  • Multi-mode integrated rainfall forecasting method and device

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Embodiment 1

[0043] According to an embodiment of the present invention, a multi-model integrated precipitation forecasting method is provided, see figure 1 , including the following steps:

[0044] S101: Using the sliding rainfall in multiple preset time periods as test data, evaluate and determine that each forecast model is in the best forecast effect in a certain preset time period and in which precipitation level;

[0045] S102: Use the sliding window method to filter out the forecast model with the best forecasting effect of a certain precipitation level within the preset time period, integrate each forecast model to generate an integrated forecast model, and use the probability matching ensemble average optimization method The precipitation value corresponding to the location of the forecast model with the best forecast effect is converted to the integrated forecast model to generate the optimal integrated forecast model.

[0046] The multi-mode integrated precipitation forecasting...

Embodiment 2

[0062] According to another embodiment of the present invention, a multi-mode integrated precipitation forecasting device is provided, see Figure 5 ,include:

[0063] The evaluation and determination unit 200 is configured to use sliding rainfall in multiple preset time periods as test data to evaluate and determine the best forecast effect of each forecast model in a certain preset time period and in which precipitation level;

[0064] The optimized integrated forecast model generation unit 300 is used to use the sliding window method to filter out the forecast model with the best forecast effect of a certain precipitation level within the preset time period, and integrate each forecast model to generate an integrated forecast model, And use the probability matching ensemble average optimization method to convert the precipitation value corresponding to the forecast model with the best forecast effect to the integrated forecast model to generate the optimal integrated foreca...

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Abstract

The invention relates to the field of rainfall forecasting, in particular to a multi-mode integrated rainfall forecasting method and device. According to the method and the device, the forecasting performance of each forecasting mode is evaluated, and the forecasting effect of each mode at different precipitation levels and the traditional integrated forecasting effect are analyzed. Then, the integration method is improved, and a sliding window method is used. A prediction mode with an optimal precipitation prediction effect in the preset time period is screened out; the forecasting modes areintegrated to generate an integrated forecasting mode; calculating an integrated forecast by using probability matching set average optimization; compared with the difference of forecasting effects oftraditional integrated forecasting in each precipitation level, the rainfall values corresponding to the magnitudes of the modes better than the traditional integrated forecasting effect are converted into the integrated forecasting step by step, so that the phenomenon that the forecasting effect of the traditional integrated forecasting is poor in some magnitudes can be overcome, and the optimalintegrated forecasting integrating all single optimal forecasting modes is formed.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of precipitation forecasting, in particular to a multi-mode integrated precipitation forecasting method and device. Background technique [0002] With the development of current numerical model forecasting, numerical weather prediction has begun to develop from single numerical model forecasting to multi-model integrated numerical forecasting. In the early 1990s, ensemble forecasting began to appear internationally, and as a new type of numerical weather prediction, it was highly valued by many national meteorological bureaus in Europe and the United States. Studies have shown that multi-model integrated forecasting can make full use of the forecast results of each model and comprehensively consider the advantages and disadvantages of each model. It is an important direction in the development of numerical forecasting technology and an effective way to reduce the systematic deviation of models. Different models will ...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/26
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/26
Inventor 李晴岚翟帅李广鑫李辉张蕾张立杰
Owner SHENZHEN INST OF ADVANCED TECH CHINESE ACAD OF SCI
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