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Railway passenger transport demand estimation method

A demand and passenger transportation technology, applied in calculation, special data processing applications, instruments, etc., can solve the problems that historical sales data cannot directly reflect passenger demand, small demand estimation results, etc., to achieve good estimation, reasonable estimation method, and accurate estimation results Effect

Pending Publication Date: 2020-08-14
广州优策科技有限公司
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AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

Due to the characteristics of the industry, the railway industry usually releases a specific number of tickets at different stations and at different time periods, so that in most cases there will be a discrepancy between the actual number of tickets sold and the real needs of passengers, resulting in the collection of historical sales data. often does not directly respond to the needs of passengers
[0003] At present, trains solve the problem of demand estimation by assuming that sales are directly equal to demand. In the prior art, this method of directly estimating demand using sales data will lead to too small demand estimation results

Method used

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Examples

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Embodiment 1

[0039] A method for estimating demand for railway passenger transport is carried out through the following steps:

[0040] S1, collecting historical sales data, and assigning a sales switch to the historical sales data; the historical sales data with a sales switch assignment value of 1 is defined as sales open data, which means that there are tickets for the corresponding train section for sale, and when there are tickets for sale, the sales The amount of tickets issued is the real demand of passengers for tickets; the historical sales data with a value of 0 for the sales switch is defined as sales restriction data, which means that there is no ticket sales for the corresponding train section. It may not be able to truly reflect the real needs of passengers. There may be situations where passengers need tickets but there are no ticket sales.

[0041] Specifically, in step S1, the collected historical sales data includes multiple historical sales volumes of the target train, h...

Embodiment 2

[0069] A method for estimating railway passenger transport demand. First, correct S1, collect historical sales data, and assign a sales switch to the historical sales data to obtain a data set; the historical sales data with a sales switch assignment of 1 is defined as sales open data, which means that there are corresponding trains If there are tickets for sale, the amount of tickets sold is the real demand of passengers for tickets; the historical sales data with sales switch assignment value of 0 is defined as sales restriction data, which means that there is no ticket sales for the corresponding train segment.

[0070] Take train G111 as example, through 10 stations (comprising Beijing West and Xi'an North) in the middle of Beijing West to Xi'an North, there are 45 sales car sections in total, wherein Shijiazhuang to Zhengzhou East is an example to illustrate the use of the railway passenger demand estimation method of the present invention to estimate Passenger needs. The...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a railway passenger transport demand estimation method. The method comprises the following steps of: S1, collecting historical sales data and carrying out sales switch assignment; S2, taking the historical sales data as sample data; S3, establishing a required Gamma distribution model; S4, correcting sales restriction data in the historical sales data to obtain corrected demand data; S5, judging whether the corrected demand data meets an iteration termination condition or not, and if so, entering S7; otherwise, entering S6; S6, replacing the corresponding sales restriction data in the sample data with the corrected demand data to form a correction data set, taking the data in the correction data set as the sample data, and returning to S3; and S7, according to the correction data, calculating the integral of Gamma distribution by adopting a Simpson formula to obtain the demand of a train section target seat. The estimation method is reasonable, and the estimation result is relatively accurate.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of traffic demand estimation, in particular to a railway passenger transport demand estimation method. Background technique [0002] The rail industry needs to estimate passenger demand based on collected historical sales data. Due to the characteristics of the industry, the railway industry usually releases a specific number of tickets at different stations and at different time periods, so that in most cases there will be a discrepancy between the actual number of tickets sold and the real needs of passengers, resulting in the collection of historical sales data. Often cannot directly respond to the needs of passengers. [0003] At present, trains solve the problem of demand estimation by assuming that sales are directly equal to demand. In the prior art, this way of directly estimating demand using sales data will lead to too small demand estimation results. In civil aviation revenue management, demand ...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q50/26G06Q10/06G06F30/20
CPCG06Q50/26G06Q10/06315G06F30/20
Inventor 刘震周兴
Owner 广州优策科技有限公司
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