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Natech risk calculation method and system for coupling probability model and information diffusion method

A technology of risk calculation and information diffusion, which is applied in the direction of calculation, complex mathematical operations, data processing applications, etc., can solve the problems of insufficient accuracy of Natech risk calculation, and achieve the effect of avoiding unreasonable industrial structure

Active Publication Date: 2022-06-21
NANJING UNIV
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Problems solved by technology

[0007] Aiming at the problem of insufficient accuracy of Natech risk calculation in large-scale areas in the prior art, the present invention provides a Natech risk calculation method and system coupling probability model and information diffusion method, coupling probability model and information diffusion method, through the network Grid analysis of different types of Natech environmental event risks, improve the accuracy of Natech risk calculations, and obtain more accurate assessment results

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  • Natech risk calculation method and system for coupling probability model and information diffusion method
  • Natech risk calculation method and system for coupling probability model and information diffusion method
  • Natech risk calculation method and system for coupling probability model and information diffusion method

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Embodiment 1

[0073] This embodiment takes the Yangtze River Economic Belt as an example to describe in detail the gridded Natech risk calculation method of the coupled probability model and the information diffusion method.

[0074] This embodiment discloses a risk calculation system, including a data collection unit, a data storage unit, a risk calculation unit and a visualization unit; the data collection unit is used to collect environmental risk-related data in a risk calculation area, and the data storage unit It is used to store the environmental risk related data collected by the data acquisition unit. The risk calculation unit performs Natech risk calculation and evaluation according to the environmental risk related data collected by the data acquisition unit. During the risk calculation, the coupled probability model and the information diffusion method are obtained. Risk probability, the visualization unit generates a Natech risk map according to the calculation result of the ris...

Embodiment 2

[0144] This embodiment is basically the same as Embodiment 1, the difference is that this embodiment calculates the Natech risk induced by earthquakes.

[0145] When calculating the probability of earthquake disaster in step 1.1, the earthquake frequency is mainly calculated and determined based on the statistics of the number of earthquake disasters that have occurred in China and its surrounding areas from 1908 to 2019 (unit: times / year). According to the frequency of earthquakes, the method of information diffusion is used to estimate the probability of earthquakes. The calculation formula is as follows:

[0146] Sample value: Y={y 1 , y 2 ,...,y m };y j is the observation sample point, m is the number of samples;

[0147] Set disaster index universe: u={u 1 , u 2 , ..., u n }, where, u 1 , u 2 , ..., u n is the control point, u i Indicates the area [u 1 , u n ] at fixed intervals to obtain any discrete real value, and n represents the total number of discrete ...

Embodiment 3

[0180] This embodiment is basically the same as Embodiment 2, the difference is that this embodiment calculates the Natech risk induced by typhoon.

[0181] When calculating the typhoon disaster probability through step 1.1, the typhoon frequency is mainly calculated according to the following two aspects. The typhoon frequency is calculated according to the statistical data of the typhoon track in the western Pacific, that is, the typhoon track data from 1951 to 2018; the radius of the seventh-level wind circle is about 350 The result of the typhoon-affected area with kilometers as the buffer zone (unit: times / year). Similar to the calculation method of earthquake occurrence frequency, the probability of typhoon occurrence is estimated by the method of information diffusion.

[0182] According to step 1.2 for the calculation of equipment failure probability under typhoon-induced Natech risk natural disasters, it was found that during Hurricane Rita, the shell bending of the s...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a Natech risk calculation method and system coupled with a probability model and an information diffusion method, and belongs to the technical field of risk calculation of technical accidents caused by natural disasters. Aiming at the problem of insufficient accuracy of Natech risk calculation in large-scale areas in the prior art, the present invention provides a method for calculating the probability of natural disasters by coupling the probability model and information diffusion method, and analyzing different types of Natech environmental events through gridding Risk, calculates the probability of equipment failure under natural disasters, and further calculates the probability of Natech risk. The risk calculation method of the present invention makes up for the problem of low accuracy of Natech risk assessment in large-scale areas, helps to identify high-risk hotspot areas, and realizes priority management of Natech risks. Provide direction for reducing Natech risk.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of risk calculation of technical accidents caused by natural disasters, and more particularly, to a Natech risk calculation method and system of coupling probability model and information diffusion method. Background technique [0002] As a major industrial development country, my country is also one of the countries with serious natural disasters in the world. The impact of a technology accident (Natech) risk induced by natural disasters cannot be ignored. At present, many scholars have done a lot of research on Natech risks. The comprehensive analysis found that most of the studies focused on the quantitative analysis of Natech risks on a small scale such as parks or enterprises, or the assessment of Natech risks in large-scale areas is not highly refined, and there is still a lack of systematic and high-precision research on large-scale areas. Realizing the identification and analysis of Natech risk area...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/06G06Q50/26G06F17/16G06F17/18
CPCG06Q10/0635G06Q50/265G06F17/16G06F17/18
Inventor 毕军马宗伟高越刘苗苗方文刘日阳胡丽条
Owner NANJING UNIV
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