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Natch risk calculation method and system for coupling probability model and information diffusion method

A technology of risk calculation and information diffusion, applied in calculation, complex mathematical operations, instruments, etc., can solve the problems of insufficient accuracy of Natech risk calculation, and achieve the effect of avoiding unreasonable industrial structure

Active Publication Date: 2021-12-24
NANJING UNIV
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Problems solved by technology

[0007] Aiming at the problem of insufficient accuracy of Natech risk calculation in large-scale areas in the prior art, the present invention provides a Natech risk calculation method and system coupling probability model and information diffusion method, coupling probability model and information diffusion method, through the network Grid analysis of different types of Natech environmental event risks, improve the accuracy of Natech risk calculations, and obtain more accurate assessment results

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  • Natch risk calculation method and system for coupling probability model and information diffusion method
  • Natch risk calculation method and system for coupling probability model and information diffusion method
  • Natch risk calculation method and system for coupling probability model and information diffusion method

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Embodiment 1

[0073] In this embodiment, taking the Yangtze River Economic Belt as an example, the gridded Natech risk calculation method coupled with the probability model and the information diffusion method is described in detail.

[0074] This embodiment discloses a risk calculation system, including a data acquisition unit, a data storage unit, a risk calculation unit, and a visualization unit; the data acquisition unit is used to collect environmental risk-related data in the risk calculation area, and the data storage unit It is used to store the environmental risk-related data collected by the data acquisition unit. The risk calculation unit performs Natech risk calculation and evaluation according to the environmental risk-related data collected by the data acquisition unit. During risk calculation, the coupling probability model and information diffusion method are obtained. Risk probability, the visualization unit generates a Natech risk map according to the calculation result of ...

Embodiment 2

[0144] This embodiment is basically the same as Embodiment 1, except that the Natech risk induced by earthquakes is calculated in this embodiment.

[0145] When calculating the probability of earthquake disasters in step 1.1, the earthquake frequency is mainly calculated and determined based on the statistics of the number of earthquake disasters that have occurred in China and surrounding areas from 1908 to 2019 (unit: times / year). According to the frequency of earthquakes, the method of information diffusion is used to estimate the probability of earthquakes, and the calculation formula is as follows:

[0146] Sample value: Y={y 1 ,y 2 ,...,y m};y j is the observation sample point, m is the number of samples;

[0147] Assume the domain of disaster indicators: u={u 1 , u 2 ,...,u n}, where u 1 , u 2 ,...,u n is the control point, u i Indicates the area [u 1 , u n ] Discretize the internal fixed interval to obtain any discrete real value, and n represents the tota...

Embodiment 3

[0180] This embodiment is basically the same as Embodiment 2, except that this embodiment calculates the typhoon-induced Natech risk.

[0181] When calculating the probability of typhoon disaster through step 1.1, the typhoon frequency is mainly calculated based on the following two aspects. The typhoon frequency is calculated according to the statistical data of the typhoon track in the western Pacific Ocean, that is, the typhoon track data from 1951 to 2018; the radius of the seven-level wind circle is about 350 Kilometers are the result of typhoon-affected areas in the buffer zone (unit: times / year). In the same way as the calculation method of earthquake occurrence frequency, the probability of typhoon occurrence is estimated by the method of information diffusion.

[0182] According to step 1.2 for the calculation of equipment failure probability under typhoon-induced Natech risk natural disasters, the study found that during Hurricane Rita, the shell bending of storage t...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a Natch risk calculation method and system for a coupling probability model and an information diffusion method, and belongs to the technical field of risk calculation of technical accidents caused by natural disasters. To solve the problem of insufficient Natch risk calculation accuracy of a large-scale region in the prior art, the invention provides a method, a coupling probability model and an information diffusion method for calculating the natural disaster probability, different types of Natch environmental event risks are analzyed by gridding, the equipment failure probability is calculated under the natural disaster and Natch risk probability is futher calculated. According to the risk calculation method, the problem of low Natch risk assessment precision of a large-scale region is solved, high-risk hot spot regions can be identified, priority management of Natch risks is realized, and a direction is provided for reducing the Natch risks.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of natural disaster-induced technology accident risk calculation, and more specifically, relates to a Natech risk calculation method and system coupled with probability model and information diffusion method. Background technique [0002] As a large industrial country, my country is also one of the countries with severe natural disasters in the world. The impact of a technical accident (Natech) induced by natural disasters cannot be ignored. At present, many scholars have conducted a lot of research on Natech risks. A comprehensive analysis found that most of the research focused on the quantitative analysis of small-scale Natech risks such as parks or enterprises, or that the assessment of Natech risks in large-scale areas was not highly refined, and there was still a lack of large-scale systematic and high-precision research. Realizing the identification and analysis of Natech risk areas is the cu...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/06G06Q50/26G06F17/16G06F17/18
CPCG06Q10/0635G06Q50/265G06F17/16G06F17/18
Inventor 毕军马宗伟高越刘苗苗方文刘日阳胡丽条
Owner NANJING UNIV
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