Cigarette regional market demand forecasting and product specification adjustment decision-making system and method

Abstract

The present invention discloses a cigarette regional market demand forecasting and product specification adjustment decision system and method, which relate to the technical field of cigarette sales, and include a data statistics module, a market demand forecasting module, and a product specification adjustment module. The data statistics module is used to count consumers' purchase demands to obtain historical data, the market demand forecasting module is used to forecast future consumers' purchase demands and analyze supply and demand relationships based on historical data, the product specification adjustment module is used to adjust the distribution quantity and distribution method of cigarette product specifications in real time based on the forecast results, the data statistics module includes a seller account module, a time recording module, a purchase record module, a distribution quantity statistics module, and a map coordinate module, the seller account module is used to register sellers and the categories of cigarettes sold, and the purchase record module is used to record the categories of cigarettes when consumers purchase cigarettes. The present invention has the characteristics of precise adjustment.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of cigarette sales, and in particular to a system and method for predicting regional market demand and adjusting product specifications of cigarettes. Background Art

[0002] Cigarette regional market demand forecasting and product specification adjustment decisions are important means for cigarette companies to enhance their market competitiveness. Scientific forecasting and decision-making methods can help companies better grasp market opportunities, optimize product structure, and improve operating efficiency.

[0003] Existing high-end cigarette sellers only determine the allocation quantity based on limited historical sales data and market surveys. Due to price fluctuations of raw materials and changes in market demand, the actual sales process is prone to mismatch of allocation quantity. If the allocation is insufficient, it will cause the loss of potential users. If the allocation is too much, it will incur the loss of cigarettes damaged by long-term storage. At the same time, there is a lack of communication and linkage between various suppliers, resulting in some sellers not being able to sell cigarettes and some not being able to sell enough. Therefore, it is necessary to design a precise adjustment of the regional market demand forecast and product specification adjustment decision system for cigarettes. Summary of the invention

[0004] The purpose of the present invention is to provide a system and method for predicting regional market demand and adjusting product specifications of cigarettes, so as to solve the problems raised in the above-mentioned background technology.

[0005] In order to solve the above technical problems, the present invention provides the following technical solutions: a cigarette regional market demand forecasting and product specification adjustment decision system, including a data statistics module, a market demand forecasting module, and a product specification adjustment module. The data statistics module is used to count consumers' purchasing needs to obtain historical data, the market demand forecasting module is used to predict future consumers' purchasing needs and analyze the supply and demand relationship based on historical data, and the product specification adjustment module is used to adjust the distribution quantity and distribution method of cigarette specifications in real time according to the prediction results.

[0006] According to the above technical solution, the data statistics module includes a seller account module, a time recording module, a purchase record module, a distribution quantity statistics module, and a map coordinate module. The seller account module is used to register sellers and the categories of cigarettes sold, the time recording module is used to record the time of cigarette sales, the purchase record module is used to record the categories of cigarettes when consumers purchase cigarettes, the distribution quantity statistics module is used to record the distribution quantity of each category of cigarettes when distributing goods after the end of the operation cycle, and to record the distribution quantity of sellers' flexible distribution to each other, and the map coordinate module is used to build a regional market map and place sellers in the map;

[0007] The market demand forecasting module includes a supply and demand analysis and calculation module and a supply imbalance reminder module. The purchase record module and the distribution quantity statistics module are electrically connected to the supply and demand analysis and calculation module. The supply and demand analysis and calculation module is used to analyze whether the distribution quantity and sales volume of each cigarette category of the current seller are in a balanced state. The supply imbalance reminder module is used to mark and remind the cigarette category with imbalance in distribution quantity and sales volume;

[0008] The product specification adjustment module includes a distribution quantity calculation module and a mutual distribution module. The distribution quantity calculation module is electrically connected to the supply and demand analysis calculation module. The distribution quantity calculation module is used to calculate the distribution quantity in the next operation cycle based on the historical distribution quantity and total sales volume of each cigarette category. The mutual distribution module is used to adjust the quantity of flexible distribution between sellers and give delivery instructions to delivery personnel.

[0009] According to the above technical solution, the working method of the system is:

[0010] S1. Construct regional market maps for each seller and wholesale market in the cigarette sales network, so that the cigarette distribution volume of each seller is proportional to the customer flow in the market area it covers;

[0011] S2. After the map is built, a trial operation is carried out for a period of time to collect cigarette sales data of each category, obtain the average daily sales volume and total sales volume of each cigarette, predict the cigarette sales volume of the next operation cycle, allocate goods, and carry out operations in subsequent time periods;

[0012] S3. The sellers record the daily sales volume of each cigarette in real time, flexibly allocate goods among the sellers, and adjust the flexible allocation volume to realize the automatic scheduling and management of the cigarette sales network;

[0013] S4. Sort the priorities of flexible distribution among various sellers, calculate according to the number of cigarette categories that need to be flexibly distributed among various sellers, and decide which seller will distribute to the sellers with flexible distribution needs.

[0014] According to the above technical solution, in S2, the specific method for predicting the cigarette sales volume in the next operation cycle and performing distribution is:

[0015] S2-1. First, during the first period of operation, the wholesale market will distribute goods to sellers every day to ensure that the distribution volume of each type of cigarette is sufficient, and the daily sales volume of a certain type of cigarette of the current seller is Statistics are performed, including For the Sales volume for the day, find the average , and the number of days of a distribution cycle Multiply the product to get the total sales ,in It is the day number, and the distribution quantity must be guaranteed Total sales The degree of matching and redundancy, the amount of redundant distribution Used for flexible distribution, each seller is configured in this way;

[0016] S2-2. Start the second phase of operation and count the daily sales volume of a certain type of cigarette sold by the seller , and calculate the average , when the sales volume of a certain cigarette of a certain seller on a certain day Beyond When the seller has enough remaining goods to meet the daily sales volume, If the demand is not met, you need to seek help from other sellers who can meet the demand for flexible distribution;

[0017] S2-3. During each operation period, The distribution personnel carry out flexible distribution of goods among various sellers every day. The distribution is carried out after the end of each operation period. This cycle is repeated so that the distribution quantity for the next operation period is allocated with reference to the sales data of the previous operation period.

[0018] According to the above technical solution, in S2-3, the next operation cycle is set as The distribution volume of the next operation cycle Total sales volume in the previous operating cycle as a benchmark, taking into account the total sales volume of the previous operating cycle And the distribution volume The ratio is also related to the changing trend of total sales volume. The specific calculation formula is: ,in is the weight coefficient of sales and distribution ratio, is the sales change trend weight coefficient, is the total sales volume of the first two operating cycles, is a constant value, and The value of is adjusted according to the time when cigarettes are put on the market. As the time when a certain category of cigarettes is put on the market increases Reduce accordingly.

[0019] According to the above technical solution, in S3, the specific method for adjusting the quantity of flexible distribution is:

[0020] S3-1. When the average daily sales volume of a certain type of cigarette sold by this seller during a certain operating period is Lower than the previous period of operation When it is responsible for the redundant distribution quantity of flexible distribution Able to be fully allocated to other sellers;

[0021] S3-2. When the average daily sales volume of a certain type of cigarette sold by this seller during a certain operating period is Higher than the previous period of operation When the number of flexible distributions allocated to other sellers is less, the proportion of distributions allocated to other sellers will be reduced until the remaining distributions of this seller just meet the average daily sales volume. , the quantity allocated to other sellers is 0.

[0022] According to the above technical solution, in S3-2, the quantity of goods to be distributed in a flexible manner The specific calculation formula is:

[0023] ,when hour , the redundant distribution quantity can be fully allocated, so ,at this time ,Right now If this sales volume continues, the seller will just sell out the redundant allocation of cigarettes of this category, and the allocation allocated to other sellers will be 0.

[0024] According to the above technical solution, in S4, the specific process of sorting the flexible distribution priority is as follows: marking the coordinates of each seller in the regional market map ,in is the number of cigarette sellers, is the horizontal axis of cigarette sellers, is the ordinate of the cigarette seller, using the distance formula between coordinate points Calculate the straight-line distance between each seller. Only the straight-line distance between two sellers is within the delivery limit distance. Delivery can only be carried out when the following conditions are met. Statistics are given to the cigarette categories that each seller needs to seek help for flexible allocation, as well as the cigarette categories that can be flexibly allocated to other sellers. The number of categories with overlapping demand and supply between each other is calculated, and flexible allocation will be given priority among sellers with a high degree of overlap.

[0025] Compared with the prior art, the beneficial effects achieved by the present invention are as follows: the present invention first predicts subsequent market demand based on past cigarette sales volume and changing trends, and adjusts the allocation quantity to make the allocation more accurate, and at the same time establishes connections between various cigarette sellers, statistics on the sales volume and allocation quantity of cigarettes of various categories, and retains a certain degree of supply redundancy. When the cigarette inventory of one or several categories of a seller is insufficient for subsequent sales, the cigarettes are allocated to each other to prevent the loss of cigarettes caused by long-term damage due to excessive allocation, while maximizing the satisfaction of consumers' needs and preventing the loss of potential users. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0026] The accompanying drawings are used to provide a further understanding of the present invention and constitute a part of the specification. Together with the embodiments of the present invention, they are used to explain the present invention and do not constitute a limitation of the present invention. In the accompanying drawings:

[0027] Figure 1 It is a schematic diagram of the overall module structure of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0028] The following will be combined with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention to clearly and completely describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0029] See also Figure 1 The present invention provides a technical solution: a cigarette regional market demand forecasting and product specification adjustment decision system, including a data statistics module, a market demand forecasting module, and a product specification adjustment module. The data statistics module is used to count the consumer's purchase demand to obtain historical data. The market demand forecasting module is used to forecast the future consumer's purchase demand and analyze the supply and demand relationship based on the historical data. The product specification adjustment module is used to adjust the distribution quantity and distribution method of cigarette specifications in real time according to the forecast results.

[0030] The data statistics module includes a seller account module, a time record module, a purchase record module, a distribution quantity statistics module, and a map coordinate module. The seller account module is used to register sellers and the categories of cigarettes sold. The time record module is used to record the time of cigarette sales. The purchase record module is used to record the categories of cigarettes when consumers purchase cigarettes. The distribution quantity statistics module is used to record the distribution quantity of each category of cigarettes when distributing goods after the end of the operation cycle, and to record the distribution quantity of sellers' flexible distribution to each other. The map coordinate module is used to build a regional market map and place sellers in the map.

[0031] The market demand forecasting module includes a supply and demand analysis and calculation module and a supply imbalance reminder module. The purchase record module and the distribution quantity statistics module are electrically connected to the supply and demand analysis and calculation module. The supply and demand analysis and calculation module is used to analyze whether the distribution quantity and sales volume of each cigarette category of the current seller are in a balanced state. The supply imbalance reminder module is used to mark and remind the cigarette category with imbalance in distribution quantity and sales volume.

[0032] The product specification adjustment module includes a distribution quantity calculation module and a mutual distribution module. The distribution quantity calculation module is electrically connected to the supply and demand analysis calculation module. The distribution quantity calculation module is used to calculate the distribution quantity in the next operation cycle according to the historical distribution quantity and total sales volume of each cigarette category. The mutual distribution module is used to adjust the quantity of flexible distribution between sellers and give distribution instructions to distribution personnel.

[0033] The system works as follows:

[0034] S1. Construct regional market maps for each seller and wholesale market in the cigarette sales network, so that the cigarette distribution volume of each seller is proportional to the customer flow in the market area it covers;

[0035] S2. After the map is built, a trial operation is carried out for a period of time to collect cigarette sales data of each category, obtain the average daily sales volume and total sales volume of each cigarette, predict the cigarette sales volume of the next operation cycle, allocate goods, and carry out operations in subsequent time periods;

[0036] S3. The sellers record the daily sales volume of each cigarette in real time, flexibly allocate goods among the sellers, and adjust the flexible allocation volume to realize the automatic scheduling and management of the cigarette sales network;

[0037] S4. Sort the priorities of flexible allocation among various sellers, calculate the number of cigarette categories that require flexible allocation among various sellers, and decide which seller will allocate goods to the seller with flexible allocation requirements;

[0038] In S2, the specific method for predicting cigarette sales volume in the next operation cycle and allocating goods is as follows:

[0039] S2-1. First, during the first period of operation, the wholesale market will distribute goods to sellers every day to ensure that the distribution volume of each type of cigarette is sufficient, and the daily sales volume of a certain type of cigarette of the current seller is Statistics are performed, including For the Sales volume for the day, find the average , and the number of days of a distribution cycle Multiply the product to get the total sales ,in It is the day number, and the distribution quantity must be guaranteed Total sales The degree of matching and redundancy, the amount of redundant distribution Used for flexible distribution, each seller is configured in this way;

[0040] S2-2. Start the second phase of operation and count the daily sales volume of a certain type of cigarette sold by the seller , and calculate the average , when the sales volume of a certain cigarette of a certain seller on a certain day Beyond When the seller has enough remaining goods to meet the daily sales volume, If the demand is not met, you need to seek help from other sellers who can meet the demand for flexible distribution;

[0041] S2-3. During each operation period, The distribution staff will flexibly distribute goods among various sellers every day. The distribution will be carried out after each operation period ends. This process will be repeated so that the distribution volume for the next operation period will be allocated based on the sales data of the previous operation period.

[0042] In S2-3, let the next operation cycle be The distribution volume of the next operation cycle Total sales volume in the previous operating cycle as a benchmark, taking into account the total sales volume of the previous operating cycle And the distribution volume The ratio is also related to the changing trend of total sales volume. The specific calculation formula is: ,in is the weight coefficient of sales and distribution ratio, is the sales change trend weight coefficient, is the total sales volume of the first two operating cycles, is a constant value, and The value of is adjusted according to the time when cigarettes are put on the market. As the time when a certain category of cigarettes is put on the market increases Reduce accordingly;

[0043] In the early stage of cigarettes being put on the market, it is difficult to see the changing trend of sales volume due to the great uncertainty and randomness of purchases, so more emphasis is placed on the absolute ratio of sales volume to distribution. In the later stage of cigarettes being put on the market, as the ratio of sales volume to distribution volume tends to be consistent, its reference value decreases, while the changing trend of sales volume can be more stable. The changing trend of sales volume is more representative in the later stage, so the reference weight is greater.

[0044] In S3, the specific method for adjusting the quantity of flexible distribution is:

[0045] S3-1. When the average daily sales volume of a certain type of cigarette sold by this seller during a certain operating period is Lower than the previous period of operation When it is responsible for the redundant distribution quantity of flexible distribution Able to be fully allocated to other sellers;

[0046] S3-2. When the average daily sales volume of a certain type of cigarette sold by this seller during a certain operating period is Higher than the previous period of operation When the number of flexible distributions allocated to other sellers is less, the proportion of distributions allocated to other sellers will be reduced until the remaining distributions of this seller just meet the average daily sales volume. The demand for goods from other sellers is 0;

[0047] In S3-2, the quantity of goods for flexible distribution The specific calculation formula is:

[0048] ,when hour , the redundant distribution quantity can be fully allocated, so ,at this time ,Right now If this sales volume is maintained, the seller will just sell out the redundant cigarette allocation of this category, and the allocation allocated to other sellers will be 0;

[0049] In S4, the specific process of sorting the priority of flexible distribution is as follows: mark the coordinates of each seller in the regional market map ,in is the number of cigarette sellers, is the horizontal axis of cigarette sellers, is the ordinate of the cigarette seller, using the distance formula between coordinate points Calculate the straight-line distance between each seller. Only the straight-line distance between two sellers is within the delivery limit distance. Delivery can only be carried out when the following conditions are met. Statistics are kept on the cigarette categories that each seller needs to assist with flexible distribution, as well as the cigarette categories that can be flexibly distributed to other sellers. The number of categories with overlapping demand and supply is calculated, and sellers with high overlap are given priority for flexible distribution. This helps to improve delivery efficiency and take care of as many cigarette categories as possible in each delivery.

[0050] It should be noted that, in this article, relational terms such as first and second, etc. are only used to distinguish one entity or operation from another entity or operation, and do not necessarily require or imply any such actual relationship or order between these entities or operations. Moreover, the terms "include", "comprise" or any other variants thereof are intended to cover non-exclusive inclusion, so that a process, method, article or device including a series of elements includes not only those elements, but also other elements not explicitly listed, or also includes elements inherent to such process, method, article or device.

[0051] Finally, it should be noted that the above description is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention and is not intended to limit the present invention. Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the aforementioned embodiments, those skilled in the art can still modify the technical solutions described in the aforementioned embodiments or replace some of the technical features therein by equivalents. Any modification, equivalent replacement, improvement, etc. made within the spirit and principle of the present invention shall be included in the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. Cigarette regional market demand forecasting and product specification adjustment decision-making system, characterized by: It includes a data statistics module, a market demand forecasting module, and a product specification adjustment module. The data statistics module is used to collect statistics on consumer purchase demands to obtain historical data. The market demand forecasting module is used to forecast future consumer purchase demands and analyze the supply-demand relationship based on historical data. The product specification adjustment module is used to adjust the distribution quantity and distribution method of cigarette product specifications in real time based on the forecast results. The data statistics module includes a seller account module, a time recording module, a purchase record module, a distribution quantity statistics module, and a map coordinate module. The seller account module is used to register sellers and the categories of cigarettes sold. The time recording module is used to record the time of cigarette sales. The purchase record module is used to record the categories of cigarettes when consumers purchase cigarettes. The distribution quantity statistics module is used to record the distribution quantity of each category of cigarettes when distributing goods after the end of the operation cycle, and to record the distribution quantity of sellers' flexible distribution of goods to each other. The map coordinate module is used to build a regional market map and place sellers in the map. The market demand forecasting module includes a supply and demand analysis and calculation module and a supply imbalance reminder module. The purchase record module and the distribution quantity statistics module are electrically connected to the supply and demand analysis and calculation module. The supply and demand analysis and calculation module is used to analyze whether the distribution quantity and sales volume of each cigarette category of the current seller are in a balanced state. The supply imbalance reminder module is used to mark and remind the cigarette category with imbalance in distribution quantity and sales volume; The product specification adjustment module includes a distribution quantity calculation module and a mutual distribution module. The distribution quantity calculation module is electrically connected to the supply and demand analysis calculation module. The distribution quantity calculation module is used to calculate the distribution quantity in the next operation cycle according to the historical distribution quantity and total sales volume of each cigarette category. The mutual distribution module is used to adjust the quantity of flexible distribution between sellers and give distribution instructions to distribution personnel. The working method of the system includes: S1. Construct regional market maps for each seller and wholesale market in the cigarette sales network, so that the cigarette distribution volume of each seller is proportional to the customer flow in the market area it covers; S2. After the map is built, a trial operation is carried out for a period of time to collect cigarette sales data of each category, obtain the average daily sales volume and total sales volume of each cigarette, predict the cigarette sales volume of the next operation cycle, allocate goods, and carry out operations in subsequent time periods; S3. The sellers record the daily sales volume of each cigarette in real time, flexibly allocate goods among the sellers, and adjust the flexible allocation volume to realize the automatic scheduling and management of the cigarette sales network; S4. Sort the priorities of flexible allocation among various sellers, calculate the number of cigarette categories that require flexible allocation among various sellers, and decide which seller will allocate goods to the seller with flexible allocation requirements; In S2, the specific method for predicting the cigarette sales volume in the next operation cycle and carrying out the distribution is: S2-1. First, during the first period of operation, the wholesale market will distribute goods to sellers every day to ensure that the distribution volume of each type of cigarette is sufficient, and the daily sales volume of a certain type of cigarette of the current seller is Statistics are performed, including For the Sales volume for the day, find the average , and the number of days of a distribution cycle Multiply the product to get the total sales ,in It is the day number, and the distribution quantity must be guaranteed Total sales The degree of matching and redundancy, the amount of redundant distribution Used for flexible distribution, each seller is configured in this way; S2-2. Start the second phase of operation and count the daily sales volume of a certain type of cigarette sold by the seller , and calculate the average , when the sales volume of a certain cigarette of a certain seller on a certain day Beyond When the seller has enough remaining goods to meet the daily sales volume, If the demand is not met, you need to seek help from other sellers who can meet the demand for flexible distribution; S2-3. During each operation period, The distribution staff will flexibly distribute goods among various sellers every day. The distribution will be carried out after each operation period ends. This process will be repeated so that the distribution volume for the next operation period will be allocated based on the sales data of the previous operation period. In S2-3, let the next operation cycle be The distribution volume of the next operation cycle Total sales volume in the previous operating cycle as a benchmark, taking into account the total sales volume of the previous operating cycle And the distribution volume The ratio is also related to the changing trend of total sales volume. The specific calculation formula is: ,in is the weight coefficient of sales and distribution ratio, is the sales change trend weight coefficient, is the total sales volume of the first two operating cycles, is a constant value, and The value of is adjusted according to the time when cigarettes are put on the market. As the time when a certain category of cigarettes is put on the market increases Reduce accordingly; In S3, the specific method for adjusting the quantity of flexible distribution is: S3-1. When the average daily sales volume of a certain type of cigarette sold by this seller during a certain operating period is Lower than the previous period of operation When it is responsible for the redundant distribution quantity of flexible distribution Able to be fully allocated to other sellers; S3-2. When the average daily sales volume of a certain type of cigarette sold by this seller during a certain operating period is Higher than the previous period of operation When the number of flexible distributions allocated to other sellers is less, the proportion of distributions allocated to other sellers will be reduced until the remaining distributions of this seller just meet the average daily sales volume. The demand for goods from other sellers is 0; In S3-2, the quantity of goods distributed by flexible distribution The specific calculation formula is: ,when hour , the redundant distribution quantity can be fully allocated, so ,at this time ,Right now If this sales volume continues, the seller will just sell out the redundant allocation of cigarettes of this category, and the allocation allocated to other sellers will be 0.

2. The cigarette regional market demand forecasting and product specification adjustment decision system according to claim 1 is characterized by: In S4, the specific process of sorting the priority of flexible distribution is as follows: marking the coordinates of each seller in the regional market map ,in is the number of cigarette sellers, is the horizontal axis of cigarette sellers, is the ordinate of the cigarette seller, using the distance formula between coordinate points Calculate the straight-line distance between each seller. Only the straight-line distance between two sellers is within the delivery limit distance. Delivery can only be carried out when the following conditions are met. Statistics are given to the cigarette categories that each seller needs to seek help for flexible allocation, as well as the cigarette categories that can be flexibly allocated to other sellers. The number of categories with overlapping demand and supply between each other is calculated, and flexible allocation will be given priority among sellers with a high degree of overlap.

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