Method and device for predicting number of infectious disease spreading people, electronic equipment and storage medium

Abstract

The invention discloses a method and a device for predicting the number of infectious disease spreading people, electronic equipment and a storage medium, and relates to the technical field of public health, and the method for predicting the number of infectious disease spreading people comprises the following steps: determining the current group immunity rate according to the number of newly increased secondary susceptible people every day in the past preset number of days and a preset individual immune weakness function; according to the current susceptible number of people, the current infected number of people, the current immunized number of people, a preset infection probability, a preset group contact rate, a preset infection duration, a preset secondary susceptibility transfer duration and a preset group immunization rate, variable quantities corresponding to the current susceptible number of people, the current infected number of people and the current immunized number of people respectively are determined; and predicting the number of susceptible people, the number of infected people and the number of immunized people in the future by combining the current number of susceptible people, the current number of infected people and the current number of immunized people. According to the technical scheme, the situation that the individual immunity changes along with time can be better reflected, and more accurate immune attenuation and infectious disease transmission simulation prediction is supported.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present application relates to the field of public health technology, and in particular to a method, device, electronic device and computer-readable storage medium for predicting the number of people spreading an infectious disease. Background Art

[0002] In order to better understand and control the spread of infectious diseases, infectious disease transmission models are usually used to simulate the states of each individual from susceptible to infected to immune and reinfected. Current infectious disease transmission models usually treat the process of re-entering the susceptible state after simulating the immune stage as a single process of transitioning directly from the immune state to the susceptible state. These models ignore the stage where individuals may remain immune for a certain period of time before decaying to the susceptible state, and the situation where they still have partial immunity after becoming susceptible again. Moreover, the immune decay conditions set by these transmission models are usually linear or exponential, which is inconsistent with the actual immune decay process of the human body. Therefore, the current infectious disease transmission models cannot accurately reflect the dynamic changes in individual immunity in reality, so there is a certain error in the predicted number of infectious disease transmissions.

[0003] The above contents are only used to assist in understanding the technical solution of the present application and do not constitute an admission that the above contents are prior art. Summary of the invention

[0004] The main purpose of this application is to provide a method, device, electronic device and computer-readable storage medium for predicting the number of people infected with an infectious disease, aiming to solve the technical problem that there is a certain error in the number of people infected with an infectious disease predicted based on the current infectious disease transmission model.

[0005] To achieve the above purpose, the present application proposes a method for predicting the number of people spreading an infectious disease, the method comprising:

[0006] Determine the current herd immunity rate based on the number of newly-susceptible people for the second time each day in the past preset number of days and a preset individual immune weakening function, wherein the individual immune weakening function is used to characterize the attenuation of the ability to prevent infection over time after an individual enters the second stage of susceptibility;

[0007] According to the current susceptible number, the current infected number, the current immune number, and the preset infection probability, group contact rate, infection duration, secondary susceptible transfer duration, and the group immunity rate, determine the changes corresponding to the current susceptible number, the current infected number, and the current immune number, respectively, wherein the current susceptible number includes the first susceptible number and the second susceptible number, the current infected number includes the first infected number and the second infected number, and the current immune number includes the first immune number and the second immune number;

[0008] Based on the respective changes in the current susceptible number, the current infected number, the current immune number and the current susceptible number, the current infected number and the current immune number, the susceptible number, the infected number and the immune number within a preset time period in the future are predicted to obtain the predicted susceptible number, the predicted infected number and the predicted immune number.

[0009] In one embodiment, the step of determining the current herd immunity rate based on the number of newly added secondary susceptible people per day in the past preset number of days and a preset individual immune weakness function includes:

[0010] The days corresponding to the newly added secondary susceptible persons each day are input into the preset individual immune weakening function to obtain the current infection prevention probability of the newly added secondary susceptible persons on each day;

[0011] The herd immunity rate is obtained by taking a weighted average of the current infection prevention probability corresponding to the number of newly added secondary susceptible persons on each day and the number of newly added secondary susceptible persons on each day.

[0012] In one embodiment, the step of determining the change amounts corresponding to the current susceptible population, the current infected population, and the current immune population respectively according to the current susceptible population, the current infected population, the current immune population, and the preset infection probability, group contact rate, infection duration, secondary susceptible transfer duration, and the group immunity rate includes:

[0013] Determine the change in the number of people susceptible for the first time according to the number of people susceptible for the first time, the group contact rate, the ratio between the current number of infected people and the total number of people, and the infection probability, wherein the total number of people is the sum of the current number of susceptible people, the number of infected people, and the current number of immune people;

[0014] Determine the change in the number of people infected for the first time according to the number of people susceptible for the first time, the group contact rate, the ratio between the current number of infected people and the total number of people, the infection probability, and the infection duration;

[0015] Determining a change in the number of people immunized for the first time according to the number of people immunized for the first time, the number of people infected for the first time, the duration of infection, and the duration of secondary susceptible transfer;

[0016] Determine the change in the number of secondary susceptible people according to the duration of secondary susceptible transfer, the number of people immunized for the first time, the herd immunity rate, the infection probability, the number of secondary susceptible people, and the ratio between the current number of infected people and the total number of people;

[0017] Determine the change in the number of secondary infections according to the infection probability, the group immunity rate, the number of secondary susceptible people, the group contact rate, the ratio between the current number of infected people and the total number of people, and the infection duration;

[0018] The change in the number of people with secondary immunity is determined based on the number of people infected for the second time and the duration of infection.

[0019] In one embodiment, the number of people infected for the first time includes at least the number of people in the first incubation period, the number of people with symptoms for the first time, and the number of people asymptomatic for the first time, and the duration of infection includes at least the duration of the incubation period, the duration of symptoms, and the duration of asymptomaticity;

[0020] The step of determining the change in the number of people infected for the first time according to the number of people susceptible for the first time, the group contact rate, the ratio between the current number of infected people and the total number of people, the infection probability, and the infection duration comprises:

[0021] Obtain the preset incubation period, symptomatic rate, symptom duration, and asymptomatic duration;

[0022] Determine the change in the number of people in the first incubation period according to the infection probability, the number of people susceptible for the first time, the group contact rate, the ratio of the current number of infected people to the total number of people, the number of people in the first incubation period, and the length of the incubation period;

[0023] Determine the change in the number of people with first symptoms according to the symptomatic rate, the incubation period, the number of people in the first incubation period, the number of people with first symptoms, and the duration of symptoms;

[0024] The change in the number of asymptomatic people is determined based on the symptomatic rate, the incubation period duration, the number of people in the first incubation period, the number of people who are asymptomatic for the first time, and the duration of asymptomatic period.

[0025] In one embodiment, the number of secondary infections at least includes the number of secondary incubation period, the number of secondary symptomatic people, and the number of secondary asymptomatic people, and the infection duration at least includes the incubation period, the duration of symptoms, and the duration of asymptomatic people;

[0026] The step of determining the change in the number of secondary infections according to the infection probability, the group immunity rate, the number of secondary susceptible people, the group contact rate, the ratio between the current number of infected people and the total number of people, and the infection duration includes:

[0027] Obtain the preset incubation period, symptomatic rate, symptom duration, and asymptomatic duration;

[0028] Determine the change in the number of people in the secondary incubation period according to the infection probability, the group immunity rate, the number of secondary susceptible people, the group contact rate, the ratio between the current number of infected people and the total number of people, the incubation period duration, and the number of people in the secondary incubation period;

[0029] Determine the change in the number of secondary symptomatic people according to the symptomatic rate, the herd immunity rate, the incubation period, the number of secondary incubation period people, the duration of symptoms and the number of secondary symptomatic people;

[0030] The change in the number of asymptomatic people is determined based on the symptomatic rate, the herd immunity rate, the incubation period, the number of people in the secondary incubation period, the asymptomatic duration and the number of secondary asymptomatic people.

[0031] In one embodiment, the current susceptible population, the current infected population, and the current immune population all include multiple different age groups, and the symptomatic rate includes the symptomatic rates corresponding to different age groups respectively;

[0032] The step of determining the change in the number of people with first symptoms according to the symptomatic rate, the incubation period, the number of people in the first incubation period, the number of people with first symptoms, and the duration of symptoms comprises:

[0033] According to the symptomatic rate, the number of people in the first incubation period, the number of people with first symptoms, the duration of the incubation period and the duration of symptoms in different age groups, the grouped changes in the number of people with first symptoms in different age groups are calculated respectively;

[0034] The grouped changes in the number of people with first symptoms in different age groups are summed to obtain the change in the number of people with first symptoms.

[0035] In one embodiment, the current susceptible population, the current infected population, and the current immune population all include a plurality of different age groups, each of the age groups includes at least a first age group and a second age group, and the group contact rate includes a contact rate between each age group;

[0036] The step of determining the change in the number of people susceptible for the first time according to the number of people susceptible for the first time, the group contact rate, the ratio between the current number of infected people and the total number of people, and the infection probability comprises:

[0037] According to the contact rate between the first age group and the second age group and the ratio of the current number of infected people to the total number of people in the second age group, the grouped change in the number of people susceptible for the first time caused by contact with people in the second age group in the first age group is calculated in combination with the infection probability and the number of people susceptible for the first time in the first age group, wherein the first age group and the second age group belong to the same age group or different age groups;

[0038] According to the calculation method of the grouping change amount, the grouping change amounts corresponding to the contacts between the first age group and the persons of each age group are calculated, and the grouping change amount of the first susceptible number of the first age group is determined;

[0039] Calculate the grouping changes corresponding to each of the age groups according to the calculation method of the grouping change of the number of susceptible people for the first time in the first age group;

[0040] The grouping changes of each age group are summed to obtain the change in the number of people susceptible for the first time.

[0041] In addition, to achieve the above purpose, the present application also proposes a device for predicting the number of people spreading an infectious disease, the device comprising:

[0042] A herd immunity rate determination module, used to determine the current herd immunity rate based on the number of newly-susceptible people for the second time each day in the past preset number of days and a preset individual immune weakening function, wherein the individual immune weakening function is used to characterize the attenuation of the ability to prevent infection over time after an individual enters the second time susceptible state;

[0043] A module for determining the amount of population change, for determining the amount of change corresponding to the current number of susceptible people, the current number of infected people, and the current number of immune people, respectively, according to the current number of susceptible people, the current number of infected people, the current number of immune people, and a preset infection probability, group contact rate, infection duration, secondary susceptible transfer duration, and the group immunity rate, wherein the current number of susceptible people includes the first susceptible number and the second susceptible number, the current number of infected people includes the first infected number and the second infected number, and the current number of immune people includes the first immune number and the second immune number;

[0044] The number prediction module is used to predict the number of susceptible people, the number of infected people and the number of immune people within a preset time period in the future based on the changes in the number of susceptible people, the number of infected people and the number of immune people, as well as the currently counted number of susceptible people, the number of infected people and the number of immune people, so as to obtain the predicted number of susceptible people, the predicted number of infected people and the predicted number of immune people.

[0045] In addition, to achieve the above-mentioned purpose, the present application also proposes an electronic device, which includes: a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored on the memory and executable on the processor, wherein the computer program is configured to implement the steps of the method for predicting the number of people infected with an infectious disease as described above.

[0046] In addition, to achieve the above-mentioned purpose, the present application also proposes a storage medium, which is a computer-readable storage medium, and a computer program is stored on the storage medium. When the computer program is executed by the processor, the steps of the method for predicting the number of people infected with an infectious disease as described above are implemented.

[0047] In addition, to achieve the above-mentioned purpose, the present application also provides a computer program product, which includes a computer program, and when the computer program is executed by a processor, it implements the steps of the method for predicting the number of people infected with an infectious disease as described above.

[0048] The present application proposes a method for predicting the number of people spreading an infectious disease. In the method for predicting the number of people spreading an infectious disease, first, the current group immunity rate is determined based on the number of newly added secondary susceptible people every day in the past preset number of days and the preset individual immune weakening function, wherein the individual immune weakening function is used to characterize the decay of the ability to prevent infection over time after the individual becomes secondary susceptible. The personal immune weakening function is used to simulate the decline in the immunity of the individual over time to determine the immunity rate of the entire group, which more realistically simulates the development process of the infectious disease. Then, based on the current number of susceptible people, the current number of infected people, the current number of immune people, and the preset infection probability, group contact rate, infection duration, secondary susceptible transfer duration, and the group immunity rate, the corresponding changes of the current number of susceptible people, the current number of infected people, and the current number of immune people are determined, wherein the current number of susceptible people includes the first susceptible people and the second susceptible people, the current number of infected people includes the first infected people and the second infected people, and the current number of immune people includes the first immune people and the second immune people, wherein the infection probability, group contact rate, infection duration, secondary susceptible transfer duration, and the group immunity rate are Parameters such as the shift time are all predetermined. After obtaining the current number of susceptible people, the current number of infected people, and the current number of immune people, the change in the number of people in various states can be calculated. These changes are related to predetermined parameters such as infection probability, group contact rate, infection time, and secondary susceptible transfer time. These parameters can be determined by historical data statistics to simulate the actual infectious disease transmission process. Finally, based on the changes in the current number of susceptible people, the current number of infected people, the current number of immune people, the current number of susceptible people, the current number of infected people, and the current number of immune people, the susceptible people, the infected people, and the immune people within a preset time period in the future are predicted to obtain the predicted number of susceptible people, the predicted number of infected people, and the predicted number of immune people, so as to accurately predict the number of people transmitted by infectious diseases. Since the technical solution of the present application not only more accurately simulates the actual dynamic changes of immunity, takes into account the changes in the group immunity rate during the immune maintenance period and the gradual attenuation of immunity, but also avoids the assumption of a fixed attenuation rate in the traditional model, it can more accurately predict and control the spread of the disease and provide more reliable guidance for vaccination strategies. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0049] The accompanying drawings, which are incorporated in and constitute a part of this specification, illustrate embodiments consistent with the present application and, together with the description, serve to explain the principles of the present application.

[0050] In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present application or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings required for use in the embodiments or the description of the prior art will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, for ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without paying any creative labor.

[0051] Figure 1 This is a schematic diagram of the process of state changes involving immune attenuation in the embodiments of the present application;

[0052] Figure 2 A flow chart of the first embodiment of the method for predicting the number of people infected with an infectious disease provided by the present application;

[0053] Figure 3 This is a schematic diagram of the state changes of a specific individual immune whole process in the embodiment of the present application;

[0054] Figure 4 A schematic diagram of a prediction simulation result of the number of new infections of an infectious disease per day generated by the method for predicting the number of people infected with an infectious disease according to an embodiment of the present application;

[0055] Figure 5 This is a schematic diagram of the structure of a device for predicting the number of people infected with an infectious disease in an embodiment of the present application;

[0056] Figure 6 This is a schematic diagram of the device structure of the hardware operating environment involved in the method for predicting the number of people infected with an infectious disease in an embodiment of the present application.

[0057] The purpose, features and advantages of this application will be further described in conjunction with the embodiments and with reference to the accompanying drawings. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0058] It should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are only used to explain the technical solutions of the present application and are not used to limit the present application.

[0059] In order to better understand the technical solution of the present application, a detailed description will be given below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and specific implementation methods.

[0060] The execution subject of this embodiment may be a computing service device with data processing, network communication and program running functions, such as a tablet computer, a personal computer, a mobile phone, a server, etc., or an electronic device, a control device, etc. capable of realizing the above functions. The following takes a computer as an execution subject as an example to illustrate this embodiment and the following embodiments.

[0061] Existing infectious disease models often simplify the process of immune decay, viewing it as a single process that directly transitions from an immune state (R) to a secondary susceptible state (S). These models often ignore the stage where the individual may maintain high immunity before simulating the individual's decay to a susceptible state, and the situation where the individual still has partial immunity after becoming susceptible again. In addition, they usually assume that the process of immune decay is linear or exponential, and the rate is fixed, which may not accurately reflect the dynamic changes in individual immunity in reality. In view of the limitations of existing models in simplifying individual immunity changes during the immune decay process, the purpose of the present invention is to provide a new method for modeling infectious disease immune decay. Specifically, with reference to Figure 1 , the individual goes from the first susceptible state to infection and then to the absolute immune state. During this absolute immune state, the individual will never be infected again, thus reflecting the complete effectiveness of immunity within a certain period of time. Subsequently, when the individual enters the secondary susceptible state again, some immunity is still retained, and this part of immunity will gradually decay over time. This decay process is characterized by the personal immune decay function. This prediction method in the embodiment of the present application not only more accurately simulates the actual dynamic change process of immunity, taking into account the immune maintenance period and the gradual decay of immunity, but also avoids the assumption of a fixed decay rate in the traditional model, so that it can more accurately predict and control the spread of the disease and provide more reliable guidance for vaccination strategies.

[0062] The present application embodiment provides a method for predicting the number of people infected with an infectious disease, referring to Figure 2 , Figure 2 This is a flow chart of a first embodiment of a method for predicting the number of people spreading infectious diseases in the present application. The method for predicting the number of people spreading infectious diseases applied to a local terminal includes:

[0063] Step S10, determining the current herd immunity rate according to the number of newly added secondary susceptible people every day in the past preset number of days and a preset individual immune weakening function, wherein the individual immune weakening function is used to characterize the attenuation of the ability to prevent infection over time after an individual enters secondary susceptible state;

[0064] First, in order to accurately simulate the process of spreading infectious diseases, individuals recover and enter the immune period after infection, and still have a certain immune ability after entering the secondary susceptible stage after the immune period ends, the individual immune weakening function is used to describe and characterize the attenuation of the ability of individuals to prevent infection after entering the secondary susceptible stage over time. The individual immune weakening function is obtained by fitting a large amount of historical infectious disease related data (such as case data) collected in advance. These individual immune weakening functions can reflect the nonlinear gradual decline of individual immune ability over time. The individual immune ability is expressed in the form of the probability of preventing infection, such as the immunity rate. After determining the immunity rate of each individual, the herd immunity rate of the entire group can be calculated based on the number of the entire secondary susceptible group.

[0065] Among them, when calculating the immunity rate of each individual at the current time point (for example, the day), it can be calculated in batches according to the time point of entering the secondary susceptibility stage. Because the immunity rate changes of people who enter the secondary susceptibility stage on the same day are the same until the same day, the immunity rate of the newly added secondary susceptible people each day can be calculated separately according to the number of new secondary susceptible people in the past preset number of days, and then the average calculation is performed based on the number of people to obtain the herd immunity rate.

[0066] Step S20, determining the changes corresponding to the current number of susceptible people, the current number of infected people, and the current number of immune people, respectively, according to the current number of susceptible people, the current number of infected people, the current number of immune people, and the preset infection probability, group contact rate, infection duration, secondary susceptible transfer duration, and the group immunity rate, wherein the current number of susceptible people includes the first susceptible number and the second susceptible number, the current number of infected people includes the first infected number and the second infected number, and the current number of immune people includes the first immune number and the second immune number;

[0067] In the embodiment of the present application, the current susceptible number refers to the number of uninfected people in the susceptible stage, including the secondary susceptible people after the end of the immune stage, the current infected number refers to the number of people in the infection stage, and the current immune number refers to the number of people in the infection stage after the infection stage has ended and in the stage where they will not be infected. In addition, the infection probability, infection duration, and secondary susceptible transfer duration are all determined by historically collected infectious disease-related statistical data, and are fixed values. Of course, as the statistical data gradually increase, the above parameters can be further updated. The group contact rate is obtained based on the flow of people in the city. At different time points, the group contact rate may be different, such as midweek and weekends, holidays and non-holidays, etc. The group contact rate is affected by the flow of people. The higher the group contact rate, the faster the spread of infectious diseases.

[0068] It should also be noted that the infection probability refers to the probability of infection after a susceptible person comes into contact with an infected person, and the infection duration refers to the duration of time after a susceptible person enters the infected state (including the incubation period and the symptomatic or asymptomatic period). The secondary susceptibility transfer duration refers to the time required to transfer from the absolute immune state to the secondary susceptible state.

[0069] In the process of determining the changes corresponding to the current susceptible number, the current infected number, and the current immune number respectively according to the current susceptible number, the current infected number, the current immune number, and the preset infection probability, group contact rate, infection duration, secondary susceptible transfer duration, and the group immunity rate, the various transfer changes between various states (such as the daily change rate) are mainly calculated by infection probability, group contact rate, infection duration, secondary susceptible transfer duration, and the group immunity rate. For individuals, the infectious disease transmission process that may be involved may include: first susceptibility, first infection, first immunity, secondary susceptibility, secondary infection, and secondary immunity. Exemplarily, the change in the number of people susceptible for the first time will be affected by parameters such as the number of people susceptible for the first time, group contact rate, the current number of infected people, and the probability of infection. Since the number of people susceptible for the first time will continue to be infected, resulting in a decrease in the number of people, and the number of people susceptible for the first time will not increase, usually, the change in the number of people susceptible for the first time is negative. In addition, the change in the number of people infected for the first time will be affected by the number of newly added first infections and the number of people entering the first immune state, increasing on one side and decreasing on the other. Specifically, the number of newly added first infections is consistent with the number of people susceptible for the first time, while the number of people infected for the first time is reduced, and the number of people infected for the first time is mainly affected by parameters such as the number of people infected for the first time and the duration of infection. On the other hand, the changes in the number of people susceptible for the second time and the number of people infected for the second time are not only affected by the relevant parameters corresponding to the number of people susceptible for the first time and the number of people infected for the first time, but also by the herd immunity rate because they have been infected once and have a certain degree of immunity. And so on, until the change in the number of people in various states is calculated.

[0070] Step S30, based on the current number of susceptible people, the current number of infected people, the current number of immune people and the changes in the current number of susceptible people, the current number of infected people and the current number of immune people, respectively, predict the number of susceptible people, the number of infected people and the number of immune people within a preset time period in the future to obtain the predicted number of susceptible people, the predicted number of infected people and the predicted number of immune people;

[0071] It can be understood that after determining the changes in the current number of susceptible people, the current number of infected people, and the current number of immune people, the corresponding changes can be added to the current number of susceptible people, the current number of infected people, and the current number of immune people to predict the predicted number of susceptible people, the predicted number of infected people, and the predicted number of immune people for the next day.

[0072] If it is necessary to predict the predicted number of susceptible people, predicted number of infected people and predicted number of immune people on the third day and subsequent days, first calculate the herd immunity rate on the second day, obtain the corresponding herd contact rate, and based on the predicted number of susceptible people, predicted number of infected people and predicted number of immune people on the second day, predict the number of susceptible people, predicted number of infected people and predicted number of immune people on the next day again according to the prediction method of the number of people transmitted by infectious diseases in steps S10 to S30, and so on, until the predicted number of susceptible people, predicted number of infected people and predicted number of immune people for each day within a preset time period in the future are obtained.

[0073] The embodiment of the present application proposes a method for predicting the number of people spread by an infectious disease. In the method for predicting the number of people spread by an infectious disease, first, the current group immunity rate is determined based on the number of newly added secondary susceptible people every day in the past preset number of days and the preset individual immune weakening function, wherein the individual immune weakening function is used to characterize the decay of the ability to prevent infection over time after the individual becomes secondary susceptible. The personal immune weakening function is used to simulate the decline in the immunity of the individual over time to determine the immunity rate of the entire group, which more realistically simulates the development process of the infectious disease. Then, based on the current number of susceptible people, the current number of infected people, the current number of immune people, and the preset infection probability, group contact rate, infection duration, secondary susceptible transfer duration, and the group immunity rate, the changes corresponding to the current number of susceptible people, the current number of infected people, and the current number of immune people are determined, wherein the current number of susceptible people includes the first susceptible people and the second susceptible people, the current number of infected people includes the first infected people and the second infected people, and the current number of immune people includes the first immune people and the second immune people, wherein the infection probability, group contact rate, infection duration, secondary susceptible transfer duration, and the group immunity rate are Parameters such as the shift time are all predetermined. After obtaining the current number of susceptible people, the current number of infected people, and the current number of immune people, the change in the number of people in various states can be calculated. These changes are related to predetermined parameters such as infection probability, group contact rate, infection time, secondary susceptible transfer time, etc. These parameters can be determined by historical data statistics to simulate the actual infectious disease transmission process. Finally, based on the changes in the current number of susceptible people, the current number of infected people, the current number of immune people, the current number of susceptible people, the current number of infected people, and the current number of immune people, respectively, the number of susceptible people, the number of infected people, and the number of immune people within a preset time period in the future are predicted to obtain the predicted number of susceptible people, the predicted number of infected people, and the predicted number of immune people, so as to accurately predict the number of people spreading infectious diseases. Since the technical solution of the embodiment of the present application not only more accurately simulates the actual dynamic changes of immunity, takes into account the changes in the group immunity rate during the immune maintenance period and the gradual attenuation of immunity, but also avoids the assumption of a fixed attenuation rate in the traditional model, it can more accurately predict and control disease transmission and provide more reliable vaccination strategy guidance.

[0074] Furthermore, in a feasible implementation manner, the step of determining the current herd immunity rate according to the number of newly added secondary susceptible persons per day in the past preset number of days and a preset individual immune weakness function comprises:

[0075] Step S11, input the days corresponding to the newly added secondary susceptible persons each day into the preset individual immune weakness function, and obtain the current infection prevention probability of the newly added secondary susceptible persons on each day;

[0076] When calculating the current prevention probability of infection for each secondary susceptible person, it is mainly determined based on the time from the current number of days. For example, t days ago, there were n new secondary susceptible people, and the number of days corresponding to these n people is t. When calculating the current prevention probability of infection for these people, t can be input into the preset individual immune weakness function, and the corresponding current prevention probability of infection is output by the individual immune weakness function.

[0077] For example, the curve of the individual immune weakness function is convex and concave, which is constructed based on the Sigmoid function and can be expressed as:

[0078]

[0079] Among them, F(t) represents the protection ability of an individual against reinfection on the same day after being first infected t days ago and entering the S' (secondary susceptible) state, that is, the probability of preventing infection. ε, λ represent the component parameters of individual immune weakness function. These parameters are obtained by fitting relevant statistical data collected during the spread of infectious diseases (such as the number of infected people, infection probability, infection duration, etc.), which can better reflect the trend of individual immunity changing over time.

[0080] It should be noted that the people who were newly susceptible to the second time every day in the past preset number of days are currently in the second time susceptible state. Corresponding to those who entered the second time susceptible state on a certain day in the past but have entered the infected or immune state on the same day, there is no need to calculate the corresponding current prevention infection probability.

[0081] Step S12, performing weighted average calculation based on the current infection prevention probability corresponding to the newly added secondary susceptible persons on each day and the number of newly added secondary susceptible persons on each day, to obtain the herd immunity rate.

[0082] After obtaining the current probability of preventing infection for people who have become newly susceptible to the second order in the past preset number of days, the weighted average method can be used to calculate the herd immunity rate.

[0083] Exemplarily, the calculation formula is as follows,

[0084] S n 'ew (t) represents the number of individuals who became secondary susceptible t days ago. imin (t) represents the average level of herd immunity at this time, that is, the herd immunity rate.

[0085] Further, in a feasible embodiment, the step of determining the change amounts corresponding to the current number of susceptible people, the current number of infected people, and the current number of immune people respectively according to the current number of susceptible people, the current number of infected people, the current number of immune people, and the preset infection probability, group contact rate, infection duration, secondary susceptible transfer duration, and group immunity rate includes:

[0086] Step S21, determining the change in the number of people susceptible for the first time according to the number of people susceptible for the first time, the group contact rate, the ratio between the current number of infected people and the total number of people, and the infection probability, wherein the total number of people is the sum of the current number of susceptible people, the number of infected people, and the current number of immune people;

[0087] It is understandable that the change in the number of people susceptible for the first time is mainly affected by the number of people infected, because the number of people susceptible for the first time is the number of people who have not been infected, and will not increase, but will only decrease. Therefore, the change in the number of people susceptible for the first time is determined by the number of newly infected people for the first time. Specifically, the probability of infection of the number of people susceptible for the first time on that day can be calculated based on the contact rate between the current number of people susceptible for the first time and the current number of infected people, the group contact rate, the ratio between the current number of infected people and the total number of people, and the probability of infection. Then calculate the product of the number of people susceptible for the first time and the probability of infection of the number of people susceptible for the first time on that day, and finally take the opposite number to get the change in the number of people susceptible for the first time.

[0088] Step S22, determining the change in the number of people infected for the first time according to the number of people susceptible for the first time, the group contact rate, the ratio between the current number of infected people and the total number of people, the infection probability, and the infection duration;

[0089] Among them, the change in the number of people infected for the first time is determined by two aspects of data: one is the number of new people corresponding to the first infected people converted from the first susceptible people; the other is the number of people who enter the first immune state due to the recovery of the infected people, which is a reduction in the number of people. Among them, the absolute value of the change in the number of new people is consistent with the number of people susceptible for the first time (as mentioned above, determined by the number of people susceptible for the first time, the group contact rate, the ratio between the current number of people and the total number of people, and the probability of infection). The number of people reduced is affected by the duration of infection. For example, after an individual enters the first infection state and passes the infection duration (in days), he or she is converted to the first immune state. Then the average number of people infected for the first time (i.e., the change) is equal to the product of the inverse of the infection duration and the number of people infected for the first time. The change in the number of people infected for the first time can be obtained by subtracting the absolute value of the number of people reduced from the number of new people.

[0090] Step S23, determining the change in the number of people immunized for the first time according to the number of people immunized for the first time, the number of people infected for the first time, the duration of infection, and the duration of secondary susceptible transfer;

[0091] Among them, the change in the number of people who are immunized for the first time is determined by two aspects of data. One is the number of people who are immunized for the first time who are converted from the first infected people, which is the new number, and the other is the number of people who are transferred to the secondary susceptible state again, which is the reduction in the number of people. Among them, the absolute value of the new number is consistent with the number of people who are reduced in the first infection (as mentioned above, determined by the number of people who are infected for the first time and the duration of infection), and the reduction in the number of people is affected by the duration of the secondary susceptible transfer. For example, after entering the first immune state, an individual is converted to the secondary susceptible state after the duration of the secondary susceptible transfer. Then the number of people who are immunized for the first time who decrease every day is equal to the product of the inverse of the duration of the secondary susceptible transfer and the number of people who are immunized for the first time. The change in the number of people who are immunized for the first time can be obtained by subtracting the absolute value of the number of people who are reduced from the number of new people.

[0092] Step S24, determining the change in the number of secondary susceptible people according to the duration of secondary susceptible transfer, the number of people immunized for the first time, the herd immunity rate, the infection probability, the number of secondary susceptible people, and the ratio between the current number of infected people and the total number of people;

[0093] Among them, the rate of change of the number of secondary susceptible people is also determined by two aspects of data. One is the number of new people corresponding to the secondarily susceptible people converted from the first immunized people; the other is the number of people converted from the secondarily susceptible state to the secondarily infected state, which belongs to the reduced number of people. Among them, the absolute value of the number of new people is consistent with the number of people reduced from the first immunization. The reduced number of people is affected by the herd immunity rate, the probability of infection, the current number of secondary susceptible people and the current number of infected people. Compared with the variables used to calculate the number of first susceptible people in step S21, the difference is that an influencing parameter is added, namely the herd immunity rate. By adding the herd immunity rate to the method of calculating the number of first susceptible people in step S21, the reduced number of secondarily susceptible people can be calculated. Finally, the change in the number of secondarily susceptible people can be obtained by subtracting the absolute value of the number of people reduced from the number of new people.

[0094] Step S25, determining the change in the number of secondary infections based on the infection probability, the group immunity rate, the number of secondary susceptible people, the group contact rate, the ratio between the current number of infections and the total number of people, and the duration of infection;

[0095] Similarly, the change in the number of secondary infections is similar to the change in the number of first infections, and is determined by the number of secondary infections converted from secondary susceptible persons and the number of infected persons who have recovered and are in a secondary immune state. When calculating the number of newly added secondary infections, the calculation method is similar to step S22, except that a group immunity rate is added. By adding the group immunity rate to the method of calculating the number of first infections in step S22, the number of newly added secondary infections can be calculated. Finally, the absolute value of the number of reduced people is subtracted from the number of newly added people to obtain the change in the number of secondary infections.

[0096] Step S26, determining the change in the number of people who are secondarily infected and the duration of infection,

[0097] In the embodiment of the present application, the number of people with secondary immunity does not consider the reduction, that is, when an individual enters the secondary immunity state, it is defaulted to a long-term immunity state, so in this case, the number of people with secondary immunity only has an increment, and the increment is equal to the reduction in the number of people with secondary infection. For example, after an individual enters the secondary infection state and changes to the secondary immunity state after the infection duration, the number of people reduced in the secondary infection state every day is equal to the product of the inverse of the infection duration and the number of people with secondary infection (the increment in the number of people with secondary immunity).

[0098] In another feasible embodiment, the reduction in the number of people who have been immunized for the second time can also be considered, and can be calculated in the same way as the reduction in the number of people who have been immunized for the first time. In addition, the susceptible state after the second immunization can also be regarded as the second susceptible state, and so on. The number of people in other subsequent states can also be calculated by the same method as the change in the number of people who have been infected for the second time and the number of people who have been immunized for the second time.

[0099] In the embodiment of the present application, the change in the number of people in each state is calculated separately to comprehensively simulate the spread of the infectious disease, and the herd immunity rate is introduced after the first immunization to take into account the decline in individual immunity, so that the simulation of the infectious disease spread process is more accurate and the reliability of the predicted data is improved.

[0100] Furthermore, in a feasible embodiment, in order to further refine the transmission process of the simulated infectious disease, taking into account the incubation period, symptomatic period or asymptomatic period included in the first infection process, the types of the number of first infected people and the duration of infection are further subdivided, the number of first infected people at least includes the number of first incubation period people, the number of first symptomatic people, and the number of first asymptomatic people, and the duration of infection at least includes the duration of the incubation period, the duration of symptoms and the duration of asymptomaticness;

[0101] The step of determining the change in the number of people infected for the first time according to the number of people susceptible for the first time, the group contact rate, the ratio between the current number of infected people and the total number of people, the infection probability, and the infection duration includes:

[0102] Step S221, obtaining the preset incubation period, symptomatic rate, symptom duration, and asymptomatic duration;

[0103] Among them, the duration of the incubation period, symptomatic rate, duration of symptoms and duration of asymptomatic period are obtained by counting the duration of a large number of people in the incubation period, symptomatic period or asymptomatic period during the spread of infectious diseases. Among them, the state transition process of an individual after infection includes: first entering the incubation period, then converting to the symptomatic period or asymptomatic period. For people infected on the same day, the number of people in the incubation period is equal to the total number of people infected on that day, and the sum of the number of people in the symptomatic period and the number of people asymptomatic is equal to the number of people in the incubation period.

[0104] Step S222, determining the change in the number of people in the first incubation period according to the infection probability, the number of people susceptible for the first time, the group contact rate, the ratio between the current number of infected people and the total number of people, the number of people in the first incubation period, and the duration of the incubation period;

[0105] Among them, the change in the number of people in the first incubation period is determined by two aspects of data. One is the number of new people corresponding to the first incubation period personnel converted from the first susceptible people; the other is the number of people who enter the first symptomatic period or the first asymptomatic period from the first incubation period, which belongs to the reduction in the number of people. Among them, the absolute value of the new number of people is consistent with the change in the number of people who are susceptible for the first time (as mentioned above, it is determined by the infection probability, the number of people who are susceptible for the first time, the group contact rate, and the ratio between the current number of infected people and the total number of people), and the reduction in the number of people is affected by the length of the incubation period. For example, after an individual enters the first incubation period and enters the first symptomatic period or the first asymptomatic period after the length of the incubation period, the average daily reduction in the number of people in the first incubation period is equal to the product of the inverse of the length of the incubation period and the number of people in the first incubation period. Finally, the change in the number of people in the first incubation period can be obtained by subtracting the absolute value of the number of people who have decreased from the number of new people.

[0106] Step S223, determining the change in the number of people with first symptoms according to the symptomatic rate, the incubation period, the number of people in the first incubation period, the number of people with first symptoms, and the duration of symptoms;

[0107] Among them, the change in the number of people with symptoms for the first time is determined by two aspects of data. One is the symptomatic people converted from the incubation period, which can be calculated based on the reduction in the number of people in the first incubation period (as mentioned above, determined by the length of the first incubation period and the number of people in the first incubation period) and the symptomatic rate; the second is the number of people who enter the first immunity period due to the recovery of the first symptomatic people, which is a reduction in the number of people. The reduction in the number of people is affected by the duration of symptoms. For example, after an individual enters the symptomatic period and the duration of symptoms, he or she is converted to the first immunity state. The number of people who decrease in the number of first symptoms every day is equal to the product of the inverse of the symptomatic duration and the number of first symptoms. Finally, the change in the number of first symptoms can be obtained by subtracting the absolute value of the reduction from the number of new people.

[0108] Step S224, determining the change in the number of asymptomatic people based on the symptomatic rate, the incubation period, the number of people in the first incubation period, the number of people asymptomatic for the first time, and the duration of asymptomatic period.

[0109] Among them, the rate of change of the number of first asymptomatic people is determined by two aspects of data. One is the asymptomatic people converted from the incubation period, which can be calculated based on the reduction in the number of people in the first incubation period (as mentioned above, determined by the length of the first incubation period and the number of people in the first incubation period) and the symptomatic rate; the second is the number of people who enter the first immune period due to the recovery of the first asymptomatic people, which is a reduction in the number of people. The reduction in the number of people is affected by the duration of asymptomaticity. For example, after an individual enters the asymptomatic period and passes the duration of asymptomaticity, he or she is converted to the first immune state. Then the number of people who decrease in the first asymptomatic population every day is equal to the product of the inverse of the asymptomatic duration and the first asymptomatic number. Finally, the change in the number of first asymptomatic people can be obtained by subtracting the absolute value of the reduction from the number of new people.

[0110] In the embodiment of the present application, the number of first-time infections and the duration of infection are divided according to the incubation period, symptomatic period and asymptomatic period, and the simulation processes of each part experienced during the spread of infectious diseases are refined, so that more refined prediction data can be predicted, and the number of infected people in each stage can be accurately predicted, which can provide a strong data basis for the scientific control of infectious diseases.

[0111] Furthermore, in a feasible embodiment, in order to further refine the transmission process of the simulated infectious disease, taking into account the incubation period, and the symptomatic period or asymptomatic period included in the secondary infection process, the types of secondary infection numbers and infection duration are further subdivided, the secondary infection number at least includes the secondary incubation period number, the secondary symptomatic number, and the secondary asymptomatic number, and the infection duration at least includes the incubation period duration, the symptomatic duration, and the asymptomatic duration;

[0112] The step of determining the change in the number of secondary infections according to the infection probability, the group immunity rate, the number of secondary susceptible people, the group contact rate, the ratio between the current number of infected people and the total number of people, and the infection duration includes:

[0113] Step S251, obtaining the preset incubation period, symptomatic rate, symptomatic duration, and asymptomatic duration;

[0114] Step S252, determining the change in the number of people in the secondary incubation period according to the infection probability, the group immunity rate, the number of people susceptible to the second time, the group contact rate, the ratio between the current number of infected people and the total number of people, the incubation period duration, and the number of people in the secondary incubation period;

[0115] Among them, the change in the number of people in the secondary incubation period is determined by two aspects of data. One is the new number of people in the secondary incubation period corresponding to the conversion of secondary susceptible people; the other is the number of people who enter the secondary symptomatic period or the secondary asymptomatic period from the secondary incubation period, which belongs to the reduction in the number of people. Among them, the absolute value of the new number of people is consistent with the change in the number of secondary susceptible people (as mentioned above, determined by the infection probability, the number of secondary susceptible people, the group immunity rate, the group contact rate, and the ratio between the current number of infected people and the total number of people), and the reduction in the number of people is affected by the duration of the secondary incubation period. For example, after an individual enters the secondary incubation period and enters the secondary symptomatic period or the secondary asymptomatic period after the duration of the secondary incubation period, the average daily reduction in the number of people in the secondary incubation period is equal to the product of the inverse of the duration of the secondary incubation period and the number of people in the secondary incubation period. Finally, the change in the number of people in the secondary incubation period can be obtained by subtracting the absolute value of the number of people who have decreased from the number of new people.

[0116] Step S253, determining the change in the number of people with secondary symptoms according to the symptomatic rate, the herd immunity rate, the incubation period, the number of people in the secondary incubation period, the duration of symptoms, and the number of people with secondary symptoms;

[0117] Among them, the change in the number of people with secondary symptoms is determined by two aspects of data. One is the symptomatic people converted from people in the secondary incubation period, which can be calculated by the reduction in the number of people in the first incubation period (as mentioned above, determined by the length of the secondary incubation period and the number of people in the secondary incubation period) and the symptomatic rate and the herd immunity rate; the second is the number of people who enter the secondary immunity period due to the recovery of people with secondary symptoms, which is a reduction in the number of people. The reduction in the number of people is affected by the duration of the secondary symptoms. For example, after entering the secondary symptomatic period, an individual is converted to a secondary immune state after the secondary symptomatic duration. The number of people with secondary symptoms who decrease every day is equal to the product of the inverse of the secondary symptom duration and the number of people with secondary symptoms. Finally, the change in the number of secondary symptoms can be obtained by subtracting the absolute value of the reduction from the number of new people.

[0118] Step S254, determining the change in the number of asymptomatic people based on the symptomatic rate, the herd immunity rate, the incubation period, the number of people in the secondary incubation period, the duration of asymptomatic period, and the number of secondary asymptomatic people.

[0119] Among them, the change in the secondary asymptomatic population is determined by two aspects of data. One is the asymptomatic people converted from the secondary incubation period, which can be calculated by the reduction in the number of people in the first incubation period (as mentioned above, determined by the length of the secondary incubation period and the number of people in the secondary incubation period) and the symptomatic rate and the herd immunity rate; the second is the number of people who enter the secondary immunity period due to the recovery of the secondary asymptomatic people, which is a reduction in the number of people. The reduction in the number of people is affected by the duration of the secondary asymptomatic period. For example, after entering the secondary asymptomatic period, an individual is converted to the secondary immune state after the secondary asymptomatic period. The number of people who decrease in the secondary asymptomatic population every day is equal to the product of the inverse of the secondary asymptomatic period and the number of secondary asymptomatic people. Finally, the change in the number of secondary asymptomatic people can be obtained by subtracting the absolute value of the reduction from the number of new people.

[0120] In the embodiment of the present application, the number of secondary infections and the duration of infection are divided according to the incubation period, symptomatic period and asymptomatic period, which refines the various processes experienced during the spread of infectious diseases. It can also predict more refined prediction data and accurately predict the number of infected people in each stage.

[0121] For example, in combination with the content of the previous application embodiment, the transmission process of infectious diseases for each individual includes the following: Figure 3 The first stage is the initial infection stage, which includes the number of people S who are susceptible to infection for the first time, the number of people L who enter the initial incubation period after infection, and the number of people L who enter the initial incubation period according to the symptomatic rate a. n and the inverse of the incubation period γ e Determine the number of people entering the first symptomatic period I and the number of people entering the first asymptomatic period A, and then calculate the number of people entering the first symptomatic period according to the inverse of the duration of symptoms δ ir and the inverse of the duration of symptom-free period δ ar To determine the number of people in the first immune period R, according to the inverse of the second susceptible transfer time γ rs , determine the number of secondary susceptible people S' who enter the secondary infection stage, and then determine the number of people in the secondary incubation period L', according to the symptomatic rate a n and the inverse of the incubation period γ e The number of people entering the second symptomatic period I′ and the number of people entering the second asymptomatic period A′ are determined respectively, and finally the inverse of the duration of symptoms δ ir and the inverse of the duration of symptom-free period δ ar To determine the number of people in the secondary immunization period R′.

[0122] In a feasible embodiment, the current susceptible population, the current infected population, and the current immune population all include multiple different age groups, and the symptomatic rate includes the symptomatic rates corresponding to different age groups respectively;

[0123] The step of determining the change in the number of people with first symptoms according to the symptomatic rate, the incubation period, the number of people in the first incubation period, the number of people with first symptoms, and the duration of symptoms includes:

[0124] Step A10, calculating the grouping change of the number of people with first symptoms in different age groups according to the symptomatic rate, the number of people in the first incubation period, the number of people with first symptoms, the duration of the incubation period and the duration of symptoms in different age groups;

[0125] Step A20, summing up the grouped changes in the number of people with first symptoms in different age groups to obtain the change in the number of people with first symptoms.

[0126] It is understandable that the probability of having symptoms during the infection period is different for people of different age groups. Generally, the symptomatic rate is lower in young and middle-aged people, and higher in younger or older people. For example, the population can be divided into four age groups: 0-3 years old, 4-17 years old, 18-59 years old, and 60+ years old, and the symptomatic rates corresponding to different age groups are calculated separately.

[0127] Exemplarily, when calculating the group change of the 18-59 age group, first multiply the number of people in the first incubation period of this age group by the inverse of the first incubation period and then multiply it by the symptomatic rate of this age group to calculate the number of people with first symptoms converted from the first incubation period in this age group; then calculate the number of people with first symptoms in this age group multiplied by the inverse of the duration of the first symptoms to obtain the number of people in this age group who are converted from the first symptomatic people to the first immune period; finally, calculate the number of people with first symptoms converted from the first incubation period of this age group minus the number of people in this age group who are converted from the first symptomatic people to the first immune period to obtain the group change of the number of people with first symptoms in this age group. Based on the method of calculating the group change of the 18-59 age group, the group change of the 0-3 years old, 4-17 years old and 60+ years old age groups are calculated respectively.

[0128] Finally, the grouped changes in the number of first-time symptomatic people in each age group are summed to obtain the changes in the number of first-time symptomatic people in all age groups. Similarly, when calculating the changes in the number of first-time asymptomatic people, the changes in the number of second-time symptomatic people, and the changes in the number of second-time asymptomatic people, the above-mentioned age grouping method can also be used to calculate the changes in various states of the whole age group based on different symptomatic rates.

[0129] Further, in a feasible embodiment, the current susceptible population, the current infected population, and the current immune population all include a plurality of different age groups, each of the age groups includes at least a first age group and a second age group, and the group contact rate includes a contact rate between each age group;

[0130] The step of determining the change in the number of people susceptible for the first time according to the number of people susceptible for the first time, the group contact rate, the ratio between the current number of infected people and the total number of people, and the infection probability comprises:

[0131] Step S211, according to the contact rate between the first age group and the second age group and the ratio of the current number of infected people to the total number of people in the second age group, combined with the infection probability and the number of first susceptible people in the first age group, calculate the group change amount of the first susceptible number of people in the first age group caused by contact with people in the second age group, wherein the first age group and the second age group belong to the same age group or different age groups;

[0132] In an embodiment of the present application, after dividing the people in the city into different age groups, when determining the group contact rate, it can be further refined into the contact rate between different age groups, and when calculating the change in the number of people in states such as the number of people susceptible for the first time, the calculations can be performed in groups, so as to more deeply simulate the spread of infectious diseases among people in different age groups.

[0133] Exemplarily, the first age group is n, the second age group is m, and n and m may be the same value, that is, the contact rate between the same age groups is also considered in the embodiment of the present application. nm It represents the contact rate between people in age group n and people in age group m.

[0134] First, calculate the grouping change in the number of first-time susceptible people caused by the contact between first-time susceptible people in the first age group and people in the second age group (including currently infected people).

[0135] Step S212, according to the calculation method of the grouping change amount, the grouping change amounts corresponding to the contacts between the first age group and the persons of each age group are calculated, and the grouping change amount of the first susceptible population of the first age group is determined;

[0136] Based on the aforementioned grouped change in the number of susceptible people for the first time caused by contact between the first age group and people in the second age group, the grouped change in the number of susceptible people for the first time caused by contact between the first age group and members of other age groups (including its own age group) is also calculated.

[0137] Furthermore, in the embodiment of the present application, the infection period is divided into the incubation period, the symptomatic period and the asymptomatic period. Exemplarily, the calculation expression is as follows:

[0138]

[0139] Among them, β is the infection probability, S n (t) is the first susceptible number of n age group at time t, L n (t),A n (t),I n (t),L' n (t),A' n (t),I' n (t) are the number of people in the first incubation period, the first asymptomatic period, the first symptomatic period, the second incubation period, the second asymptomatic period, and the second symptomatic period in the m age group at time t. The sum of the above types of people is the current number of infections in the m age group. N m represents the total population of age group m, the ratio of the current number of infected people in age group m to the total population of age group m, and represents the probability that a person in age group n comes into contact with an infected person in age group m, multiplied by the contact rate M nm The grouped changes in the number of first-time symptomatic people in the n age group relative to the 1-m age groups are accumulated, and finally the grouped changes in the number of first-time susceptible people in the n age group are obtained.

[0140] Step S213, calculating the grouping change amount corresponding to each age group according to the calculation method of the grouping change amount of the first susceptible population in the first age group;

[0141] Step S214, summing up the group changes of each age group to obtain the change in the number of susceptible people for the first time.

[0142] Based on the above method of calculating the grouped change in the number of susceptible people for the first time in n age groups, the grouped change in the number of susceptible people for the first time in each age group is calculated separately and then summed up to obtain the change in the number of susceptible people for the first time corresponding to all age groups.

[0143] In the embodiment of the present application, when predicting the number of people in the first susceptible period, the contact rates of members of different age groups and the same age group are subdivided by age group, which can more realistically simulate the impact of the contact rate between age groups on the change in the number of people during the spread of infectious diseases. In addition, when calculating the changes in the number of people in the first incubation period, the number of people with symptoms for the first time, the number of people asymptomatic for the first time, the number of people immune for the first time, the number of people susceptible for the second time, the number of people in the second incubation period, the number of people with symptoms for the second time, the number of people asymptomatic for the second time, and the number of people immune for the second time, the contact rate between age groups and the symptomatic rate of each age group can also be used for group calculation.

[0144] Exemplarily, the calculation formula for the change in the number of people in the above various states can be as follows:

[0145]

[0146] Among them, S n (t),L n (t),A n (t),I n (t),R n (t),S' n (t),L' n (t),A' n (t),I' n (t),R' n (t) are the first susceptible number, first incubation period number, first asymptomatic number, first symptomatic number, first immune number, second susceptible number, second incubation period number, second asymptomatic number, second symptomatic number, and second immune number in the n age group at time t. In addition, the meanings of other parameters are shown in the following table.

[0147]

[0148]

[0149] in, They are the change in the number of people in the first incubation period, the change in the number of asymptomatic people for the first time, the change in the number of symptomatic people for the first time, the change in the number of people immunized for the first time, the change in the number of susceptible people for the second time, the change in the number of people in the second incubation period, the change in the number of people with symptoms for the second time, the change in the number of asymptomatic people for the second time, and the change in the number of people immunized for the second time.

[0150] Furthermore, for people in age group m, there is the following equation:

[0151] N m =S m (t)+L m (t)+A m (t)+I m (t)+R m (t)+S′ m (t)+L′ m (t)+A′ m (t)+I′ m (t)+R′ m (t); where N m for

[0152] m is the total number of people in the age group, S m (t), L m (t), A m (t), I m (t), R m (t), S′ m (t), L′m (t), A′ m (t), I′ m (t), R′ m (t) etc. are the first susceptible number, first incubation period number, first asymptomatic number, first symptomatic number, first immune number, second susceptible number, second incubation period number, second asymptomatic number, second symptomatic number, and second immune number in the m age group at time t.

[0153] In the examples of this application, the age groups are divided, and the transmission process of infectious diseases is simulated in detail according to the symptomatic rate of each age group, and the changes in the number of people in each age group are predicted, which is convenient for overall control of the spread of infectious diseases and the formulation of reasonable and effective measures to reduce the prevalence of infectious diseases. Moreover, in the examples of this application, a novel high immune stage combined with individual immune attenuation is used to express the changes in the immune level of the population, and the above immune mechanism is integrated into the infectious disease model to more accurately express the spread dynamics of infectious diseases.

[0154] In practical applications, by applying the method for predicting the number of infectious disease transmission proposed in the embodiment of the present application and obtaining the intensity of population mobility in a city, the results of predicting the number of new infections per day in the future are as shown in the model simulation results. Figure 4 As shown, the red line is the intensity of population mobility within the city, and the blue line represents the number of new infections per day. It can be seen from the figure that a relatively accurate prediction of the number of new infections in the future (2022-12-07 to 2023-06-25) is achieved, and the peaks of the number of new infections (Peek1 and Peek2) and the number of new infections at special festivals and other time points are predicted. In order to test the effectiveness of this method, real case data were used to fit immune attenuation-related parameters to construct an individual immune weakening function. The above simulation results prove that the method proposed in the embodiment of the present application can accurately capture the immune attenuation process in the population and accurately reflect the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases in the population.

[0155] It should be noted that the above examples are only used to understand the present application and do not constitute a limitation on the method for predicting the number of people infected with infectious diseases in the present application. More simple transformations based on this technical concept are all within the scope of protection of the present application.

[0156] The present application also provides a device for predicting the number of people infected with an infectious disease, referring to Figure 5 , the device for predicting the number of people spreading infectious diseases comprises:

[0157] The herd immunity rate determination module 10 is used to determine the current herd immunity rate based on the number of newly added secondary susceptible people every day in the past preset number of days and a preset individual immune weakening function, wherein the individual immune weakening function is used to characterize the attenuation of the ability to prevent infection over time after an individual enters the secondary susceptible state;

[0158] The module 20 for determining the change in the number of people is used to determine the change in the number of people who are currently susceptible, the number of people who are currently infected, and the number of people who are currently immune, according to the number of people who are currently susceptible, the number of people who are currently infected, the number of people who are currently immune, and the preset infection probability, group contact rate, infection duration, secondary susceptible transfer duration, and the group immunity rate, wherein the number of people who are currently susceptible includes the number of people who are susceptible for the first time and the number of people who are susceptible for the second time, the number of people who are currently infected includes the number of people who are infected for the first time and the number of people who are infected for the second time, and the number of people who are currently immune includes the number of people who are immune for the first time and the number of people who are immune for the second time;

[0159] The population prediction module 30 is used to predict the number of susceptible people, the number of infected people and the number of immune people within a preset time period in the future based on the changes in the number of susceptible people, the number of infected people and the number of immune people, as well as the currently counted number of susceptible people, the number of infected people and the number of immune people, so as to obtain the predicted number of susceptible people, the predicted number of infected people and the predicted number of immune people.

[0160] In one embodiment, the herd immunity rate determination module 10 is used to:

[0161] The days corresponding to the newly added secondary susceptible persons each day are input into the preset individual immune weakening function to obtain the current infection prevention probability of the newly added secondary susceptible persons on each day;

[0162] The herd immunity rate is obtained by taking a weighted average of the current infection prevention probability corresponding to the number of newly added secondary susceptible persons on each day and the number of newly added secondary susceptible persons on each day.

[0163] In one embodiment, the module 20 for determining the change in number of people is used to:

[0164] Determine the change in the number of people susceptible for the first time according to the number of people susceptible for the first time, the group contact rate, the ratio between the current number of infected people and the total number of people, and the infection probability, wherein the total number of people is the sum of the current number of susceptible people, the number of infected people, and the current number of immune people;

[0165] Determine the change in the number of people infected for the first time according to the number of people susceptible for the first time, the group contact rate, the ratio between the current number of infected people and the total number of people, the infection probability, and the infection duration;

[0166] Determining a change in the number of people immunized for the first time according to the number of people immunized for the first time, the number of people infected for the first time, the duration of infection, and the duration of secondary susceptible transfer;

[0167] Determine the change in the number of secondary susceptible people according to the duration of secondary susceptible transfer, the number of people immunized for the first time, the herd immunity rate, the infection probability, the number of secondary susceptible people, and the ratio between the current number of infected people and the total number of people;

[0168] Determine the change in the number of secondary infections according to the infection probability, the group immunity rate, the number of secondary susceptible people, the group contact rate, the ratio between the current number of infected people and the total number of people, and the infection duration;

[0169] The change in the number of people with secondary immunity is determined based on the number of people infected for the second time and the duration of infection.

[0170] In one embodiment, the number of people infected for the first time includes at least the number of people in the first incubation period, the number of people with symptoms for the first time, and the number of people asymptomatic for the first time, and the infection duration includes at least the incubation period duration, the duration of symptoms, and the duration of asymptomatic time; the number change determination module 20 is used to: obtain the preset incubation period duration, symptomatic rate, duration of symptoms, and duration of asymptomatic time;

[0171] Determine the change in the number of people in the first incubation period according to the infection probability, the number of people susceptible for the first time, the group contact rate, the ratio of the current number of infected people to the total number of people, the number of people in the first incubation period, and the length of the incubation period;

[0172] Determine the change in the number of people with first symptoms according to the symptomatic rate, the incubation period, the number of people in the first incubation period, the number of people with first symptoms, and the duration of symptoms;

[0173] The change in the number of asymptomatic people is determined based on the symptomatic rate, the incubation period duration, the number of people in the first incubation period, the number of people who are asymptomatic for the first time, and the duration of asymptomatic period.

[0174] In one embodiment, the number of secondary infections includes at least the number of secondary incubation period people, the number of secondary symptomatic people, and the number of secondary asymptomatic people, and the infection duration includes at least the duration of the incubation period, the duration of symptoms, and the duration of asymptomatic people; the number change determination module 20 is used to:

[0175] Obtain the preset incubation period, symptomatic rate, symptom duration, and asymptomatic duration;

[0176] Determine the change in the number of people in the secondary incubation period according to the infection probability, the group immunity rate, the number of secondary susceptible people, the group contact rate, the ratio between the current number of infected people and the total number of people, the incubation period duration, and the number of people in the secondary incubation period;

[0177] Determine the change in the number of secondary symptomatic people according to the symptomatic rate, the herd immunity rate, the incubation period, the number of secondary incubation period people, the duration of symptoms and the number of secondary symptomatic people;

[0178] The change in the number of asymptomatic people is determined based on the symptomatic rate, the herd immunity rate, the incubation period, the number of people in the secondary incubation period, the asymptomatic duration and the number of secondary asymptomatic people.

[0179] In one embodiment, the current susceptible population, the current infected population, and the current immune population all include multiple different age groups, and the symptomatic rate includes the symptomatic rates corresponding to different age groups respectively; the population change determination module 20 is used to:

[0180] According to the symptomatic rate, the number of people in the first incubation period, the number of people with first symptoms, the duration of the incubation period and the duration of symptoms in different age groups, the grouped changes in the number of people with first symptoms in different age groups are calculated respectively;

[0181] The grouped changes in the number of people with first symptoms in different age groups are summed to obtain the change in the number of people with first symptoms.

[0182] In one embodiment, the current susceptible population, the current infected population, and the current immune population all include a plurality of different age groups, each of the age groups includes at least a first age group and a second age group, and the group contact rate includes a contact rate between each age group;

[0183] According to the contact rate between the first age group and the second age group and the ratio of the current number of infected people to the total number of people in the second age group, the grouped change in the number of people susceptible for the first time caused by contact with people in the second age group in the first age group is calculated in combination with the infection probability and the number of people susceptible for the first time in the first age group, wherein the first age group and the second age group belong to the same age group or different age groups;

[0184] According to the calculation method of the grouping change amount, the grouping change amounts corresponding to the contacts between the first age group and the persons of each age group are calculated, and the grouping change amount of the first susceptible number of the first age group is determined;

[0185] Calculate the grouping changes corresponding to each of the age groups according to the calculation method of the grouping change of the number of susceptible people for the first time in the first age group;

[0186] The grouping changes of each age group are summed to obtain the change in the number of people susceptible for the first time.

[0187] The prediction device for the number of infectious disease transmission provided by the present application adopts the prediction method for the number of infectious disease transmission in the above embodiment, which can solve the technical problem that the number of infectious disease transmission predicted based on the current infectious disease transmission model has a certain error. Compared with the prior art, the beneficial effect of the prediction device for the number of infectious disease transmission provided by the present application is the same as the beneficial effect of the prediction method for the number of infectious disease transmission provided by the above embodiment, and the other technical features in the prediction device for the number of infectious disease transmission are the same as the features disclosed in the method of the previous embodiment, which will not be repeated here.

[0188] The present application provides an electronic device, which includes: at least one processor; and a memory communicatively connected to the at least one processor; wherein the memory stores instructions executable by the at least one processor, and the instructions are executed by the at least one processor so that the at least one processor can execute the method for predicting the number of people infected with an infectious disease in the above-mentioned embodiment one.

[0189] Reference below Figure 6 , which shows a schematic diagram of the structure of an electronic device suitable for implementing the embodiments of the present application. The electronic devices in the embodiments of the present application may include but are not limited to mobile terminals such as mobile phones, laptop computers, digital broadcast receivers, PDAs (Personal Digital Assistants), PADs (Portable Application Descriptions), PMPs (Portable Media Players), vehicle-mounted terminals (such as vehicle-mounted navigation terminals), etc., and fixed terminals such as digital TVs, desktop computers, etc. Figure 6 The electronic device shown is merely an example and should not bring any limitation to the functions and scope of use of the embodiments of the present application.

[0190] like Figure 6As shown, the electronic device may include a processing device 1001 (e.g., a central processing unit, a graphics processor, etc.), which can perform various appropriate actions and processes according to a program stored in a read-only memory (ROM: Read Only Memory) 1002 or a program loaded from a storage device 1003 to a random access memory (RAM: Random Access Memory) 1004. In RAM1004, various programs and data required for the operation of the electronic device are also stored. The processing device 1001, ROM1002, and RAM1004 are connected to each other through a bus 1005. An input / output (I / O) interface 1006 is also connected to the bus. Generally, the following systems can be connected to the I / O interface 1006: an input device 1007 including, for example, a touch screen, a touch pad, a keyboard, a mouse, an image sensor, a microphone, an accelerometer, a gyroscope, etc.; an output device 1008 including, for example, a liquid crystal display (LCD: Liquid Crystal Display), a speaker, a vibrator, etc.; a storage device 1003 including, for example, a magnetic tape, a hard disk, etc.; and a communication device 1009. The communication device 1009 can allow the electronic device to communicate with other devices wirelessly or by wire to exchange data. Although the figure shows an electronic device with various systems, it should be understood that it is not required to implement or have all the systems shown. More or fewer systems can be implemented or have alternatively.

[0191] In particular, according to the embodiments disclosed in the present application, the process described above with reference to the flowchart can be implemented as a computer software program. For example, the embodiments disclosed in the present application include a computer program product, which includes a computer program carried on a computer-readable medium, and the computer program includes a program code for executing the method shown in the flowchart. In such an embodiment, the computer program can be downloaded and installed from a network through a communication device, or installed from a storage device 1003, or installed from a ROM 1002. When the computer program is executed by the processing device 1001, the above-mentioned functions defined in the method of the embodiment disclosed in the present application are executed.

[0192] The electronic device provided by the present application adopts the method for predicting the number of infectious disease transmission in the above embodiment, which can solve the technical problem that the number of infectious disease transmission predicted based on the current infectious disease transmission model has a certain error. Compared with the prior art, the beneficial effects of the electronic device provided by the present application are the same as the beneficial effects of the method for predicting the number of infectious disease transmission provided by the above embodiment, and the other technical features of the electronic device are the same as the features disclosed in the method of the previous embodiment, which will not be repeated here.

[0193] It should be understood that the various parts disclosed in this application can be implemented by hardware, software, firmware or a combination thereof. In the description of the above embodiments, specific features, structures, materials or characteristics can be combined in any one or more embodiments or examples in a suitable manner.

[0194] The above is only a specific implementation of the present application, but the protection scope of the present application is not limited thereto. Any person skilled in the art who is familiar with the present technical field can easily think of changes or substitutions within the technical scope disclosed in the present application, which should be included in the protection scope of the present application. Therefore, the protection scope of the present application should be based on the protection scope of the claims.

[0195] The present application provides a computer-readable storage medium having computer-readable program instructions (ie, computer programs) stored thereon, and the computer-readable program instructions are used to execute the method for predicting the number of people spreading infectious diseases in the above-mentioned embodiment.

[0196] The computer-readable storage medium provided in the present application may be, for example, a USB flash drive, but is not limited to electrical, magnetic, optical, electromagnetic, infrared, or semiconductor systems, systems or devices, or any combination of the above. More specific examples of computer-readable storage media may include, but are not limited to: an electrical connection with one or more wires, a portable computer disk, a hard disk, a random access memory (RAM), a read-only memory (ROM), an erasable programmable read-only memory (EPROM or flash memory), an optical fiber, a portable compact disk read-only memory (CD-ROM), an optical storage device, a magnetic storage device, or any suitable combination of the above. In this embodiment, the computer-readable storage medium may be any tangible medium containing or storing a program that can be used by or in combination with an instruction execution system, system or device. The program code contained on the computer-readable storage medium may be transmitted using any appropriate medium, including but not limited to: wires, optical cables, RF (Radio Frequency), etc., or any suitable combination of the above.

[0197] The computer-readable storage medium may be included in the electronic device, or may exist independently without being installed in the electronic device.

[0198] The computer-readable storage medium carries one or more programs. When the one or more programs are executed by the electronic device, the electronic device executes: determining the current group immunity rate based on the number of newly added secondary susceptible people every day in the past preset number of days and the preset individual immune weakening function, wherein the individual immune weakening function is used to characterize the decay of the ability to prevent infection over time after the individual enters the secondary susceptible state; determining the current number of susceptible people, the current number of infected people, the current number of immune people, and the preset infection probability, group contact rate, infection duration, secondary susceptible transfer duration, and the group immunity rate based on the current number of susceptible people, the current number of infected people, the current number of immune people, and the preset infection probability, group contact rate, infection duration, secondary susceptible transfer duration, and the group immunity rate. The changes corresponding to the previous number of infections and the current number of immune people, respectively, wherein the current susceptible number includes the first susceptible number and the second susceptible number, the current infected number includes the first infected number and the second infected number, and the current immune number includes the first immune number and the second immune number; based on the changes in the current susceptible number, the current infected number and the current immune number and the current susceptible number, the current infected number and the current immune number, respectively, predict the number of susceptible people, the number of infected people and the number of immune people within a preset time period in the future to obtain the predicted number of susceptible people, the predicted number of infected people and the predicted number of immune people.

[0199] Computer program code for performing the operations of the present application may be written in one or more programming languages ​​or a combination thereof, including object-oriented programming languages ​​such as Java, Smalltalk, C++, and conventional procedural programming languages ​​such as "C" or similar programming languages. The program code may be executed entirely on the user's computer, partially on the user's computer, as a separate software package, partially on the user's computer and partially on a remote computer, or entirely on a remote computer or server. In the case of a remote computer, the remote computer may be connected to the user's computer through any type of network, including a local area network (LAN) or a wide area network (WAN), or may be connected to an external computer (e.g., via the Internet using an Internet service provider).

[0200] The flow chart and block diagram in the accompanying drawings illustrate the possible architecture, function and operation of the system, method and computer program product according to various embodiments of the present application. In this regard, each square box in the flow chart or block diagram can represent a module, a program segment or a part of a code, and the module, the program segment or a part of the code contains one or more executable instructions for realizing the specified logical function. It should also be noted that in some alternative implementations, the functions marked in the square box can also occur in a sequence different from that marked in the accompanying drawings. For example, two square boxes represented in succession can actually be executed substantially in parallel, and they can sometimes be executed in the opposite order, depending on the functions involved. It should also be noted that each square box in the block diagram and / or flow chart, and the combination of the square boxes in the block diagram and / or flow chart can be implemented with a dedicated hardware-based system that performs a specified function or operation, or can be implemented with a combination of dedicated hardware and computer instructions.

[0201] The modules involved in the embodiments described in this application may be implemented by software or hardware, wherein the name of the module does not constitute a limitation on the unit itself in some cases.

[0202] The readable storage medium provided by the present application is a computer-readable storage medium, which stores computer-readable program instructions (i.e., computer programs) for executing the above-mentioned method for predicting the number of infectious disease transmission, and can solve the technical problem that the number of infectious disease transmission predicted based on the current infectious disease transmission model has a certain error. Compared with the prior art, the beneficial effects of the computer-readable storage medium provided by the present application are the same as the beneficial effects of the method for predicting the number of infectious disease transmission provided by the above-mentioned embodiment, and will not be repeated here.

[0203] The present application also provides a computer program product, including a computer program, which, when executed by a processor, implements the steps of the method for predicting the number of people infected with an infectious disease as described above.

[0204] The computer program product provided by the present application can solve the technical problem that the number of infectious disease transmission numbers predicted based on the current infectious disease transmission model has certain errors. Compared with the prior art, the beneficial effects of the computer program product provided by the present application are the same as the beneficial effects of the method for predicting the number of infectious disease transmission numbers provided in the above embodiment, and will not be elaborated here.

[0205] The above descriptions are only some embodiments of the present application, and are not intended to limit the patent scope of the present application. All equivalent structural changes made using the contents of the present application specification and drawings under the technical concept of the present application, or direct / indirect applications in other related technical fields are included in the patent protection scope of the present application.

Claims

1. A method for predicting the number of people spreading an infectious disease, characterized in that: The method for predicting the number of people spreading the infectious disease includes: Determine the current herd immunity rate based on the number of newly-susceptible people for the second time each day in the past preset number of days and a preset individual immune weakening function, wherein the individual immune weakening function is used to characterize the attenuation of the ability to prevent infection over time after an individual enters the second stage of susceptibility; According to the current susceptible number, the current infected number, the current immune number, and the preset infection probability, group contact rate, infection duration, secondary susceptible transfer duration, and the group immunity rate, determine the changes corresponding to the current susceptible number, the current infected number, and the current immune number, respectively, wherein the current susceptible number includes the first susceptible number and the second susceptible number, the current infected number includes the first infected number and the second infected number, and the current immune number includes the first immune number and the second immune number; Based on the respective changes in the current susceptible number, the current infected number, the current immune number and the current susceptible number, the current infected number and the current immune number, the susceptible number, the infected number and the immune number within a preset time period in the future are predicted to obtain the predicted susceptible number, the predicted infected number and the predicted immune number.

2. The method for predicting the number of people infected with an infectious disease according to claim 1, characterized in that: The step of determining the current herd immunity rate according to the number of newly added secondary susceptible people every day in the past preset number of days and the preset individual immune weakness function includes: The days corresponding to the newly added secondary susceptible persons each day are input into the preset individual immune weakening function to obtain the current infection prevention probability of the newly added secondary susceptible persons on each day; The herd immunity rate is obtained by taking a weighted average of the current infection prevention probability corresponding to the number of newly added secondary susceptible persons on each day and the number of newly added secondary susceptible persons on each day.

3. The method for predicting the number of people infected with an infectious disease according to claim 1, wherein: The step of determining the change amounts corresponding to the current susceptible population, the current infected population, and the current immune population respectively according to the current susceptible population, the current infected population, the current immune population, and the preset infection probability, group contact rate, infection duration, secondary susceptible transfer duration, and the group immunity rate comprises: Determine the change in the number of people susceptible for the first time according to the number of people susceptible for the first time, the group contact rate, the ratio between the current number of infected people and the total number of people, and the infection probability, wherein the total number of people is the sum of the current number of susceptible people, the number of infected people, and the current number of immune people; Determine the change in the number of people infected for the first time according to the number of people susceptible for the first time, the group contact rate, the ratio between the current number of infected people and the total number of people, the infection probability, and the infection duration; Determining a change in the number of people immunized for the first time according to the number of people immunized for the first time, the number of people infected for the first time, the duration of infection, and the duration of secondary susceptible transfer; Determine the change in the number of secondary susceptible people according to the duration of secondary susceptible transfer, the number of people immunized for the first time, the herd immunity rate, the infection probability, the number of secondary susceptible people, and the ratio between the current number of infected people and the total number of people; Determine the change in the number of secondary infections according to the infection probability, the group immunity rate, the number of secondary susceptible people, the group contact rate, the ratio between the current number of infected people and the total number of people, and the infection duration; The change in the number of people with secondary immunity is determined based on the number of people infected for the second time and the duration of infection.

4. The method for predicting the number of people infected with an infectious disease according to claim 3, characterized in that: The number of people infected for the first time includes at least the number of people in the first incubation period, the number of people with symptoms for the first time, and the number of people asymptomatic for the first time. The duration of infection includes at least the duration of the incubation period, the duration of symptoms, and the duration of asymptomatic time. The step of determining the change in the number of people infected for the first time according to the number of people susceptible for the first time, the group contact rate, the ratio between the current number of infected people and the total number of people, the infection probability, and the infection duration comprises: Obtain the preset incubation period, symptomatic rate, symptom duration, and asymptomatic duration; Determine the change in the number of people in the first incubation period according to the infection probability, the number of people susceptible for the first time, the group contact rate, the ratio of the current number of infected people to the total number of people, the number of people in the first incubation period, and the length of the incubation period; Determine the change in the number of people with first symptoms according to the symptomatic rate, the incubation period, the number of people in the first incubation period, the number of people with first symptoms, and the duration of symptoms; The change in the number of asymptomatic people is determined based on the symptomatic rate, the incubation period duration, the number of people in the first incubation period, the number of people who are asymptomatic for the first time, and the duration of asymptomatic period.

5. The method for predicting the number of people infected with an infectious disease according to claim 3, characterized in that: The number of people infected for the second time at least includes the number of people in the second incubation period, the number of people with symptoms for the second time, and the number of people asymptomatic for the second time. The duration of infection at least includes the duration of the incubation period, the duration of symptoms, and the duration of asymptomatic time. The step of determining the change in the number of secondary infections according to the infection probability, the group immunity rate, the number of secondary susceptible people, the group contact rate, the ratio between the current number of infected people and the total number of people, and the infection duration includes: Obtain the preset incubation period, symptomatic rate, symptom duration, and asymptomatic duration; Determine the change in the number of people in the secondary incubation period according to the infection probability, the group immunity rate, the number of secondary susceptible people, the group contact rate, the ratio between the current number of infected people and the total number of people, the incubation period duration, and the number of people in the secondary incubation period; Determine the change in the number of secondary symptomatic people according to the symptomatic rate, the herd immunity rate, the incubation period, the number of secondary incubation period people, the duration of symptoms and the number of secondary symptomatic people; The change in the number of asymptomatic people is determined based on the symptomatic rate, the herd immunity rate, the incubation period, the number of people in the secondary incubation period, the asymptomatic duration and the number of secondary asymptomatic people.

6. The method for predicting the number of people infected with an infectious disease according to claim 4, characterized in that: The current susceptible population, the current infected population, and the current immune population all include multiple different age groups, and the symptomatic rate includes the symptomatic rates corresponding to different age groups respectively; The step of determining the change in the number of people with first symptoms according to the symptomatic rate, the incubation period, the number of people in the first incubation period, the number of people with first symptoms, and the duration of symptoms comprises: According to the symptomatic rate, the number of people in the first incubation period, the number of people with first symptoms, the duration of the incubation period and the duration of symptoms in different age groups, the grouped changes in the number of people with first symptoms in different age groups are calculated respectively; The grouped changes in the number of people with first symptoms in different age groups are summed to obtain the change in the number of people with first symptoms.

7. The method for predicting the number of people infected with an infectious disease according to claim 3, characterized in that: The current susceptible population, the current infected population, and the current immune population all include a plurality of different age groups, each of the age groups includes at least a first age group and a second age group, and the group contact rate includes a contact rate between each age group; The step of determining the change in the number of people susceptible for the first time according to the number of people susceptible for the first time, the group contact rate, the ratio between the current number of infected people and the total number of people, and the infection probability comprises: According to the contact rate between the first age group and the second age group and the ratio of the current number of infected people to the total number of people in the second age group, the grouped change in the number of people susceptible for the first time caused by contact with people in the second age group in the first age group is calculated in combination with the infection probability and the number of people susceptible for the first time in the first age group, wherein the first age group and the second age group belong to the same age group or different age groups; According to the calculation method of the grouping change amount, the grouping change amounts corresponding to the contacts between the first age group and the persons of each age group are calculated, and the grouping change amount of the first susceptible number of the first age group is determined; Calculate the grouping changes corresponding to each of the age groups according to the calculation method of the grouping change of the number of susceptible people for the first time in the first age group; The grouping changes of each age group are summed to obtain the change in the number of people susceptible for the first time.

8. A device for predicting the number of people spreading an infectious disease, characterized in that: The device for predicting the number of people spreading infectious diseases comprises: A herd immunity rate determination module, used to determine the current herd immunity rate based on the number of newly-susceptible people for the second time each day in the past preset number of days and a preset individual immune weakening function, wherein the individual immune weakening function is used to characterize the attenuation of the ability to prevent infection over time after an individual enters the second time susceptible state; A module for determining the amount of population change, for determining the amount of change corresponding to the current number of susceptible people, the current number of infected people, and the current number of immune people, respectively, according to the current number of susceptible people, the current number of infected people, the current number of immune people, and a preset infection probability, group contact rate, infection duration, secondary susceptible transfer duration, and the group immunity rate, wherein the current number of susceptible people includes the first susceptible number and the second susceptible number, the current number of infected people includes the first infected number and the second infected number, and the current number of immune people includes the first immune number and the second immune number; The number prediction module is used to predict the number of susceptible people, the number of infected people and the number of immune people within a preset time period in the future based on the changes in the number of susceptible people, the number of infected people and the number of immune people, as well as the currently counted number of susceptible people, the number of infected people and the number of immune people, so as to obtain the predicted number of susceptible people, the predicted number of infected people and the predicted number of immune people.

9. An electronic device, characterized in that: The device comprises: a memory, a processor and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein the computer program is configured to implement the steps of the method for predicting the number of people spreading an infectious disease as described in any one of claims 1 to 7.

10. A storage medium, characterized in that: The storage medium is a computer-readable storage medium, on which a computer program is stored. When the computer program is executed by a processor, the steps of the method for predicting the number of people infected with an infectious disease as described in any one of claims 1 to 7 are implemented.

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