Evaluation method for improving maturity of quantitative analysis technology

Abstract

The invention relates to an evaluation method for improving the maturity of a quantitative analysis technology, and aims to overcome the defects of the maturity evaluation technology in the prior art and provide the evaluation method for improving the maturity of the quantitative analysis technology. On one hand, the development process and the development trend of the maturity of the electro-hydrogen coupling technology are clarified by improving a TRL technology maturity evaluation method. And secondly, establishing an electric hydrogen coupling diversified technology basic parameter data radar map comparison method, and quantizing and visually comparing technology development differences. Through diversified technology basic parameter data and development potential comparison, an optimal technology choice for large-scale development of the green hydrogen industry in different periods is analyzed. According to the method, the electrical hydrogen production technology development process and the technology maturity development stage are integrally combed through a full-process evaluation method, so that the electrical hydrogen coupling technology development difference can be more comprehensively and visually understood, and a foundation can be effectively laid for technology development trend prediction.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The invention relates to an evaluation method, in particular to an evaluation method for improving the maturity of quantitative analysis technology. Background Art

[0002] The high pollution and high emissions caused by traditional fuels have become the biggest challenge for the current national green transformation. In developing a new power system, electricity-hydrogen coupling is generally recognized as an important means to break through the limitations of renewable energy development and realize a new power system with a multi-level grid power balance. It is an inevitable choice for the development of energy strategy. Green hydrogen and green electricity are both secondary energy sources, and both need to be prepared from primary energy or other secondary energy sources. Green hydrogen, due to its dual characteristics as an energy carrier and industrial raw material, can play a role in areas where electricity cannot play a role. Strengthen the application of hydrogen energy in industries where emissions are difficult to reduce, promote deep emissions reductions in the industrial, transportation, and power sectors, and build a hydrogen-electricity coordinated terminal energy system.

[0003] Electricity-hydrogen coupling mainly includes three links: electricity-generated hydrogen, hydrogen storage and transportation, and hydrogen energy supply. Its technologies are diversified, and many technologies are in the early stages of development with large differences in maturity. Clarifying the development status of electricity-hydrogen coupling technology and the key to its transformation mechanism, and grasping its development direction and applicable scenarios are the basis for clarifying the dynamic development laws of electricity-hydrogen coupling.

[0004] The concept of technology maturity originated from NASA in the 1970s and became mature in the 1990s. It refers to the development status of technology relative to a specific system or project, reflecting the degree to which the technology meets the expected goals of the project. Technology maturity evaluation is a set of systematic standards, methods and tools to determine the key technologies of equipment development and quantitatively evaluate their maturity.

[0005] Although research has been conducted on electric-hydrogen coupling, most patents focus on equipment and system structure. The evaluation of technology maturity still remains at the nine levels officially determined by the TRL technology maturity analysis method in 2005. However, the marketization and industrialization issues after productization are not involved in the technology maturity level. The mature development of technology cannot guarantee its large-scale commercial development, and commercial application production is also affected by other factors such as material cost and scarcity. Therefore, it is critical to establish an improved evaluation system to subdivide the marketization and industrialization issues after productization. In addition, the current judgment of technology maturity is mostly based on qualitative comparison dimensions, and the resulting technology development gap is not obvious enough. Therefore, it is very important to establish a visual comparison model to compare the technology maturity gap more clearly and effectively. Summary of the invention

[0006] In view of the above problems, the main purpose of the present invention is to provide an evaluation method for improving the maturity of quantitative analysis technology.

[0007] The present invention solves the above technical problems through the following scheme: an evaluation method for improving the maturity of quantitative analysis technology, the evaluation method for improving the maturity of quantitative analysis technology comprises:

[0008] (1) Improve the TRL technology maturity evaluation method and clarify the maturity development process and development trend of electric-hydrogen coupling technology;

[0009] (2) Establish a radar chart comparison method for basic parameter data of the diversified technologies of electric-hydrogen coupling to quantitatively and intuitively compare the differences in technology development.

[0010] In the specific implementation example of the present invention, the TRL technology maturity evaluation method is determined to be nine levels: 1) basic principles are discovered and explained; 2) the stage of forming technical concepts or application solutions; 3) application analysis and laboratory research, key function laboratory verification stage; 4) laboratory principle prototype components or experimental boards are verified in an experimental environment; 5) complete laboratory prototypes, components or experimental boards are verified in a related environment; 6) system demonstration in a simulated environment; 7) system demonstration in a real environment; 8) finalization test; 9) operation and evaluation.

[0011] In a specific implementation example of the present invention, the values ​​of multiple key parameters are represented on each vertex of a polygon to facilitate intuitive comparison and analysis of these variables; the mathematical modeling of the radar chart can be performed through the following steps:

[0012] (1) Determine variables and data points: Assume that we have a variable, and each variable corresponds to a data point;

[0013] (2) Determine the angle and radius: The position of each variable in the radar chart can be represented by a polar coordinate system. The angle of each vertex can be determined as:

[0014]

[0015] (3) Normalized data: For fair comparison, the data of different variables need to be normalized. Assuming the value of the variable is, the normalized value can be expressed as:

[0016]

[0017] Among them, min(x i ) and max(x i ) are variables x i The minimum and maximum values ​​of

[0018] (4) Calculate polar coordinates: normalized value y i As the radius r i, the polar coordinates of each vertex are:

[0019] (r i ,θ i ), where r i =y i ;

[0020] (5) Convert to Cartesian coordinates: Convert polar coordinates to Cartesian coordinate system. The coordinates of the vertices are:

[0021] x i =r i cos(θ i )

[0022] y i =r i sin(θ i )Draw a polygon: Connect all vertices in sequence to form a closed polygon, which constitutes the basic outline of the radar chart.

[0023] In a specific implementation example of the present invention, technical comparison is performed by quantifying key parameters and visual analysis is performed in combination with radar charts.

[0024] In the specific implementation example of the present invention, by improving the TRL technology maturity evaluation method, the commercial development and industrial scale development stages involved in technology development and application are improved, so that the evaluation method can more intuitively understand the technology development status in the technology application stage.

[0025] In a specific implementation example of the present invention, the technology maturity evaluation method is integrated into a radar chart for visual analysis, which can visualize multiple variables on the same plane.

[0026] In a specific implementation example of the present invention, in the radar chart, each variable has an independent axis, and the starting point and the end point of the axis meet at one point, forming a spider web-shaped figure; each variable has its own scale to reflect the numerical value of the variable.

[0027] The positive progress of the present invention is that compared with the common similar technologies, the evaluation method of the maturity of the improved quantitative analysis technology provided by the present invention has the following advantages:

[0028] (1) Based on the innovative technology-driven and demand-driven theory, technology and market evolve in conjunction to jointly promote the development of the future energy industry. From the perspective of technology supply, the selection of future energy industries requires an examination of the development stage of the technology and a qualitative and quantitative assessment of the industry's maturity. This invention improves the TRL technology maturity evaluation method and improves the commercial development and industrial scale development stages involved in technology development and application, so that the evaluation method can more intuitively understand the technology development status in the technology application stage.

[0029] (2) The present invention also integrates the technology maturity evaluation method into the radar chart for visual analysis. It can visualize multiple variables on the same plane. In the radar chart, each variable has an independent axis, and the starting point and end point of the axis meet at one point, forming a spider web-shaped graph. Each variable has its own scale, which can reflect the numerical value of the variable. It has a high degree of space utilization and intuitiveness. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0030] Figure 1 The present invention combines and improves the evaluation process of the TRL technology maturity method.

[0031] Figure 2 It is a radar comparison chart of key technical parameters of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0032] Preferred embodiments of the present invention are given below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings to illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention in detail.

[0033] The technical problem to be solved by the present invention is to overcome the defects of current technology maturity evaluation technology and provide an improved evaluation method for the maturity of quantitative analysis technology.

[0034] First, by improving the TRL technology maturity evaluation method, the maturity development process and development trend of electric-hydrogen coupling technology are clarified. Second, a radar chart comparison method for basic parameter data of diversified technologies for electric-hydrogen coupling is established to quantitatively and intuitively compare the differences in technology development. By comparing the basic parameter data and development potential of diversified technologies, the optimal technology options for large-scale development of the green hydrogen industry in different periods are analyzed. The present invention uses a full-process evaluation method to comprehensively sort out the development process of electric hydrogen production technology and the technology maturity development stage, so that the development differences of electric-hydrogen coupling technology can be understood in a more comprehensive and intuitive way, which can effectively pave the way for predicting technology development trends.

[0035] The main steps include:

[0036] The TRL technology maturity analysis method was formally determined as nine levels in 2005: 1) Basic principles are discovered and explained; 2) The stage of forming technical concepts or application solutions; 3) Application analysis and laboratory research, key function laboratory verification stage; 4) Laboratory principle prototype components or experimental boards are verified in the experimental environment; 5) Complete laboratory prototypes, components or experimental boards are verified in the relevant environment; 6) System demonstration in a simulated environment; 7) System demonstration in a real environment; 8) Finalization test; 9) Operation and evaluation. The nine levels of technology maturity involve scientific and technological knowledge results, experiments, simulations and engineering, and productization. It is generally believed that the results after the fifth level have certain practicality and are suitable for further development, application and transformation, but the marketization and industrialization issues after productization are not involved in the technology maturity level. The mature development of technology cannot guarantee its large-scale commercial development. Commercial application production is also affected by other factors such as material cost and scarcity.

[0037] The present invention establishes an improved evaluation system to subdivide the marketization and industrialization issues after productization. Level 9 in the technology maturity level shows that the technology already has products that can run stably in real scenarios.

[0038] Therefore, level 10) commercial development technology and level 11) large-scale development technology were established.

[0039] Level 10) Commercial development technology: This level indicates that the technology has reached the commercial development stage and can generate economic benefits in specific project operations and can be used as the main technical means to achieve project mission objectives.

[0040] Level 11) Scaled Development Technology: This level indicates that the technology development can be applied on a large scale. The technology has overcome the barriers of material cost and scarcity. A relatively fixed and universal system architecture already exists for the application of the technology.

[0041] In this way, the technical maturity of the three links of electric-hydrogen coupling, including electric hydrogen production, hydrogen storage and transportation, and hydrogen energy supply, is evaluated.

[0042] The following is the evaluation process combined with the improved TRL technology maturity method.

[0043] The present invention can conduct qualitative analysis on multiple links and multiple categories of technologies involved in the production, storage, transportation and use of electricity-hydrogen coupling, thereby determining the technology development trend.

[0044] In order to quantitatively analyze the maturity of technology, a radar model for comparative analysis of key parameters is established.

[0045] The key parameter indicators are selected as follows:

[0046] (1) Equipment performance parameter indicators

[0047] The performance of technical products and equipment is the core part of technological development and application. The comparison of key performance indicators is the most effective and intuitive data to reflect the gap in technological development.

[0048] 1. Maximum power of a single machine

[0049] The maximum power of a single machine indicates the maximum output power of a single technical device. It is the ratio of the energy output of various energy sources or energy conversion equipment (such as power and lighting equipment) to time, that is, the energy provided to the outside world by energy or equipment per unit time. The electric hydrogen production link is expressed by the maximum single-machine hydrogen production scale, and the hydrogen storage and transportation link is expressed by the hydrogen storage capacity. The hydrogen use link is expressed by the output power of the equipment.

[0050] 2. Efficiency

[0051] Mechanical efficiency refers to the percentage of the output work (useful work) of the machine to the input work (power work) when the machine is in stable operation. In a certain period of time, the ratio of the number of various energy products produced after energy processing and conversion to the number of various energy inputs for processing and conversion in the same period. The electricity-to-hydrogen conversion efficiency is used to represent the hydrogen production link. The hydrogen storage and transportation link is represented by the hydrogen storage compression ratio. The application link is represented by the output capacity and hydrogen energy consumption ratio.

[0052] (2) Economic indicators

[0053] The economic value assessment of technology application should take into account factors such as cost efficiency, cost allocation, investment recovery, and policy advocacy.

[0054] 1. Initial investment cost

[0055] Fixed costs are the total initial investments during the production or improvement period that do not change with the use of the product or the quantity produced.

[0056] 2. Operating costs

[0057] The so-called variable cost refers to the input generated by the change of production process or production quantity during the production or improvement of production. It refers to the cost caused by the demand and demand of each resource during the operation process. It also includes a series of costs such as equipment maintenance.

[0058] (3) Safety indicators

[0059] Hydrogen is flammable and explosive. When the volume concentration in the air is between 4.0% and 75.6%, it will explode when it encounters a fire source. At the same time, hydrogen itself is highly active and can easily cause "hydrogen embrittlement" with steel, resulting in a decrease in the mechanical properties and plasticity of the storage and transportation equipment materials, and cracking or damage.

[0060] 1. Equipment reliability

[0061] The stability of hydrogen must be ensured during its production, transportation and use, making the equipment safe and reliable during operation.

[0062] (4) Flexibility index

[0063] 1. Load adjustment range

[0064] The input energy adjustment range that can be handled by the equipment during operation, that is, the minimum operating load of the equipment and the maximum load-bearing load of the equipment, ensures the equipment's ability to cope with various load changes without stopping.

[0065] 2. Response time

[0066] Startup time refers to the time required from the time a device or system is powered on or receives a signal to the time it reaches the intended operating state. In the case of short-term start-stop situations, the startup time should be as short as possible to improve overall efficiency and response speed.

[0067] Stop time refers to the time it takes for a device or system to completely stop operating after receiving a shutdown command. In the case of short-term start-stop situations, the stop time should also be minimized to ensure quick response and efficient work processes.

[0068] By representing the values ​​of multiple key parameters on the vertices of a polygon, it is easy to compare and analyze these variables intuitively. The mathematical modeling of the radar chart can be carried out through the following steps:

[0069] 1. Determine variables and data points: Suppose we have a variable, and each variable corresponds to a data point.

[0070] 2. Determine the angle and radius: The position of each variable in the radar chart can be represented by a polar coordinate system. The angle of each vertex can be determined as:

[0071]

[0072] 3. Normalized data: For fair comparison, the data of different variables need to be normalized. Assuming the value of the variable is, the normalized value can be expressed as:

[0073]

[0074] Among them, min(x i ) and max(x i ) are variables x i The minimum and maximum values ​​of .

[0075] 4. Calculate polar coordinates: normalized value y i As the radius r i , the polar coordinates of each vertex are: (ri ,θ i ), where r i =y i ;

[0076] 5. Convert to Cartesian coordinates: Convert polar coordinates to Cartesian coordinate system. The coordinates of the vertices are:

[0077] x i =r i cos(θ i )

[0078] y i =r i sin(θ i )

[0079] 6. Draw a polygon: Connect all vertices in order to form a closed polygon, which constitutes the basic outline of the radar chart.

[0080] By quantifying key parameters, we can compare technologies and combine radar charts for visual analysis. This allows us to understand the differences in the development of different technologies in a more comprehensive and intuitive way. This can effectively pave the way for the prediction of technology development trends.

[0081] The purpose of the present invention is to provide an improved evaluation method for quantitative analysis of technology maturity, so as to solve the evaluation of the development of electric-hydrogen coupling technology, thereby better judging and predicting the future technology development trend. The features and advantages of the present invention are as follows:

[0082] (1) Based on the innovative technology-driven and demand-driven theory, technology and market evolve in conjunction to jointly promote the development of the future energy industry. From the perspective of technology supply, the selection of future energy industries requires an examination of the development stage of the technology and a qualitative and quantitative assessment of the industry's maturity. This invention improves the TRL technology maturity evaluation method and improves the commercial development and industrial scale development stages involved in technology development and application, so that the evaluation method can more intuitively understand the technology development status in the technology application stage.

[0083] (2) The present invention also integrates the technology maturity evaluation method into the radar chart for visual analysis. It can visualize multiple variables on the same plane. In the radar chart, each variable has an independent axis, and the starting point and end point of the axis meet at one point, forming a spider web-shaped graph. Each variable has its own scale, which can reflect the numerical value of the variable; it has a high degree of space utilization and intuitiveness.

[0084] The above shows and describes the basic principles and main features of the present invention and the advantages of the present invention. Those skilled in the art should understand that the present invention is not limited to the above embodiments, and the above embodiments and descriptions are only for explaining the principles of the present invention. Without departing from the spirit and scope of the present invention, the present invention may have various changes and improvements, which fall within the scope of the present invention to be protected, and the scope of the present invention to be protected is defined by the attached claims and their equivalents.

Claims

1. An evaluation method for improving the maturity of quantitative analysis technology, characterized in that: The evaluation method for the maturity of the improved quantitative analysis technology includes: (1) Improve the TRL technology maturity evaluation method and clarify the maturity development process and development trend of electric-hydrogen coupling technology; (2) Establish a radar chart comparison method for basic parameter data of the diversified technologies of electric-hydrogen coupling to quantitatively and intuitively compare the differences in technology development.

2. The method for evaluating the maturity of improved quantitative analysis technology according to claim 1, characterized in that: The TRL technology maturity evaluation method is determined to be nine levels.

3. The method for evaluating the maturity of improved quantitative analysis technology according to claim 2, characterized in that: The nine levels are: 1) Basic principles are discovered and elaborated; 2) Forming technical concepts or application solutions; 3) Application analysis and laboratory research, key function laboratory verification stage; 4) Laboratory prototype components or experimental boards are verified in an experimental environment; 5) Complete laboratory prototypes, components or experimental boards are verified in relevant environments; 6) System demonstration in a simulated environment; 7) System demonstration in real environment; 8) Finalization test; 9) Operation and evaluation.

4. The method for evaluating the maturity of improved quantitative analysis technology according to claim 1, characterized in that: By representing the values ​​of multiple key parameters on the vertices of a polygon, it is easy to compare and analyze these variables intuitively; the mathematical modeling of the radar chart can be carried out through the following steps: (1) Determine variables and data points: Assume that we have a variable, and each variable corresponds to a data point; (2) Determine the angle and radius: The position of each variable in the radar chart can be represented by a polar coordinate system. The angle of each vertex can be determined as: (3) Normalized data: In order to make a fair comparison, the data of different variables need to be normalized; (4) Calculate polar coordinates: normalized value y i As the radius r i , the polar coordinates of each vertex are: (r i ,θ i ), where r i =y i ; (5) Convert to Cartesian coordinates.

5. The method for evaluating the maturity of improved quantitative analysis technology according to claim 4, characterized in that: In step (3), assuming the value of the variable, the normalized value can be expressed as: Among them, min(x i ) and min(x i ) are variables x i The minimum and maximum values ​​of .

6. The method for evaluating the maturity of improved quantitative analysis technology according to claim 4, characterized in that: In step (5), the polar coordinates are converted to the Cartesian coordinate system, and the coordinates of the vertices are: x i =r i cos(θ i ) y i =r i sin(θ i ) Draw a polygon: Connect all vertices in sequence to form a closed polygon, which constitutes the basic outline of the radar chart.

7. The method for evaluating the maturity of improved quantitative analysis technology according to claim 6, characterized in that: By quantifying key parameters, technical comparisons are carried out and visual analysis is performed using radar charts.

8. The method for evaluating the maturity of improved quantitative analysis technology according to claim 6, characterized in that: By improving the TRL technology maturity evaluation method and perfecting the commercial development and industrial scale development stages involved in technology development and application, the evaluation method can more intuitively understand the technology development status in the technology application stage.

9. The method for evaluating the maturity of improved quantitative analysis technology according to claim 8, characterized in that: Integrating the technology maturity evaluation method into the radar chart for visual analysis can visualize multiple variables on the same plane.

10. The method for evaluating the maturity of improved quantitative analysis technology according to claim 9, characterized in that: In a radar chart, each variable has an independent axis, and the starting point and end point of the axis meet at one point, forming a spider web-shaped graph; each variable has its own scale, reflecting the numerical size of the variable.

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