A Method of Power Load Forecasting and Evaluation of Forecasting Results Based on Arima Model

A technology for power load and prediction results, applied in the field of counting machines, can solve the problems of inability to judge the accuracy of prediction results, lack of versatility and portability, etc.

Active Publication Date: 2018-04-10
UNIV OF SCI & TECH OF CHINA
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AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

Due to the obvious periodicity of power load as a time series, the time series forecasting model ARIMA model is often used as an effective forecasting method for power load, but it is often only used for the analysis of data of a specific user (industry, region), lacking versatility and Portability, and the accuracy of the prediction results cannot be judged

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  • A Method of Power Load Forecasting and Evaluation of Forecasting Results Based on Arima Model

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Embodiment Construction

[0021] The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only some of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of them. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by persons of ordinary skill in the art without making creative efforts belong to the protection scope of the present invention.

[0022] An embodiment of the present invention provides a method for electric load forecasting and forecasting result evaluation based on an ARIMA model. Such as figure 1 As shown, the method mainly includes the following steps:

[0023] Step 11. Obtain the time series of the original power load data from the JAVA environment, and call the statistical function in the R environment to process the time series; wherein, the statistical function in the...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a method for electric load forecasting and prediction result evaluation based on an ARIMA model. The method includes: obtaining the time series of original electric load data from a JAVA environment, and calling statistical functions in the R environment to process the time series; Wherein, the statistical function in the R environment processes the time series based on the ARIMA model; the JAVA environment receives the processing result returned by the R environment, and makes a logical judgment on the result to obtain the corresponding prediction result; the JAVA environment utilizes the preset The accuracy evaluation index and similarity evaluation index are used to evaluate the prediction results. By adopting the scheme of the present invention, the function of inputting time series and automatically obtaining forecast results is realized; at the same time, the forecast results are also evaluated to determine the accuracy of the forecast results.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of counting machines, in particular to an ARIMA model-based electric load forecast and a method for evaluating forecast results. Background technique [0002] With the development of my country's economy and the improvement of people's living standards, electricity is becoming more and more important to the national economy and people's livelihood. Especially when entering the peak period of electricity consumption every year, the north and south of the river begin to save electricity and ensure energy conservation. Therefore, it has become a top priority to study the load situation of the existing power grid and optimally allocate the limited power resources. How to effectively model the power load and forecast the future load has become the key to solving this problem. At the same time, accurate power load forecasting can provide a reference for decision-making and has important practical significance fo...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
Inventor 麦鸿坤李惊涛董雨肖坚红李春生周永真孙广中刘惠民
Owner UNIV OF SCI & TECH OF CHINA
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