Segmented prediction method capable of reflecting impact of sudden elements on urban and rural and social development indexes

Abstract

The invention relates to the technical field for urban and rural development index prediction, and in particular to a segmented prediction method capable of reflecting the impact of sudden elements on urban and rural and social development indexes. The method generalizes an annual growth rate rule of a certain index by just taking regard of conventional elements on the basis of probability theory, fits the normally distributed random number mean value u and the shape parameter m of the growth rate, establishes a growth rate background trend prediction formula satisfying Weibull distribution, predicts the background future development trend of the index by using an annual growth rate segmented method; additionally introduces a sudden element trigger and impact mechanism to reflect the impact of sudden elements on the future development trend of the index, and ultimately improve the segmented prediction method. The accurate prediction of the method for urban and rural and social development is beneficial to prevention of risk events in society and promotion of healthy and orderly development of all parts of the urban and rural society, provides a basis for the formulation of social decision, and plays a very important role.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of urban and rural development index prediction, in particular to a segmented prediction method that can reflect the impact of sudden factors on urban, rural and social development indexes. Background technique [0002] Social forecasting is an advanced stage of forecasting, which means that the forecasting subject predicts social phenomena, events and processes that may occur in the future society based on the existing development laws under the support of certain theories. Accurate prediction of urban and rural and social development is conducive to preventing the occurrence of risk events in society, promoting the healthy and orderly development of various parts of urban and rural society, and providing a basis for social decision-making, which plays a very important role. The current forecasting methods in urban and rural social development mainly include gray model forecasting methods, regression foreca...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

The current forecasting methods in urban and rural social development mainly include gray model forecasting methods, regression forecasting methods, time series forecasting methods, Logistic curve model forecasting methods, and Malthusian model forecasting methods. The above methods do not take into account the factors of emergencies in the forecasting process. It is listed as an influencing factor alone, which leads to inaccurate prediction results, which is contrary to the complex and changeable characteristics of urban and rural social development, and affects the accuracy of decision makers' strategies for future urban and rural social development.

Images