Photovoltaic power climbing event imprecise probability prediction method and system considering daily periodic influence
A probabilistic forecasting and inaccurate technology, applied in forecasting, information technology support systems, data processing applications, etc., can solve problems such as improper forecasting of photovoltaic power generation power ramping events and alarms, and achieve the effect of avoiding probabilistic forecasting errors
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[0051] In one or more embodiments, an imprecise probabilistic prediction method for photovoltaic power ramp events considering daily periodicity is disclosed, including:
[0052] Obtain sample data; sample data includes: the output power data of the photovoltaic power station to be tested and the meteorological data (temperature, solar radiation, humidity, air pressure, etc.) of the location of the photovoltaic power station;
[0053] Define the relative climbing rate of photovoltaic power, preprocess the sample data, and construct the node variable set of the reliability network and the state set of each node variable;
[0054] Using the greedy search algorithm to construct the optimal reliability network structure of photovoltaic power generation climbing prediction under the sample data;
[0055] Statize the prior probability of different climbing states in the historical data, use IDM to estimate the imprecise conditional probability associated with each climbing evidence ...
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