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Inaccurate probabilistic prediction method and system for photovoltaic power ramp events considering daily periodicity

A probabilistic forecasting and imprecise technology, applied in forecasting, information technology support systems, data processing applications, etc., can solve problems such as improper forecasting and alarming of photovoltaic power generation ramp events

Active Publication Date: 2021-06-04
CHINA ELECTRIC POWER RES INST +1
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Problems solved by technology

[0007] Aiming at the problem of inappropriate alarms in the existing forecast of photovoltaic power ramp events, the present invention proposes a method and system for inaccurate probability prediction of photovoltaic power ramp events considering the influence of daily periodicity, which can effectively avoid insufficient samples of ramp events. The resulting probability prediction error provides more comprehensive decision-making information for power grid operation scheduling

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  • Inaccurate probabilistic prediction method and system for photovoltaic power ramp events considering daily periodicity
  • Inaccurate probabilistic prediction method and system for photovoltaic power ramp events considering daily periodicity
  • Inaccurate probabilistic prediction method and system for photovoltaic power ramp events considering daily periodicity

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Embodiment 1

[0051] In one or more embodiments, an imprecise probabilistic prediction method for photovoltaic power ramp events considering daily periodicity is disclosed, including:

[0052] Obtain sample data; sample data includes: the output power data of the photovoltaic power station to be tested and the meteorological data (temperature, solar radiation, humidity, air pressure, etc.) of the location of the photovoltaic power station;

[0053] Define the relative climbing rate of photovoltaic power, preprocess the sample data, and construct the node variable set of the reliability network and the state set of each node variable;

[0054] Using the greedy search algorithm to construct the optimal reliability network structure of photovoltaic power generation climbing prediction under the sample data;

[0055] Statize the prior probability of different climbing states in the historical data, use IDM to estimate the imprecise conditional probability associated with each climbing evidence ...

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Abstract

The invention discloses an inaccurate probability prediction method and system for a photovoltaic power climbing event considering daily periodic influence, including: obtaining the output power data of a photovoltaic power station and the meteorological data of the location of the photovoltaic power station as sample data; constructing a reliability network The node variable set and the state set of each node variable; use the greedy search algorithm to construct the optimal reliability network structure of photovoltaic power generation climbing prediction under the sample data; count the prior probability of different climbing states in the historical data, and use IDM to estimate the The inaccurate conditional probability associated with degree network nodes is used to construct a conditional reliability set; the reliability network probabilistic inference of photovoltaic power generation ramp-up is carried out, and the inaccurate prediction result of photovoltaic power ramp-up probability under given meteorological conditions is obtained. The invention can effectively avoid probability prediction errors caused by insufficient samples of climbing events, and provide more comprehensive decision-making information for power grid operation scheduling.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of photovoltaic power ramp events, and in particular to an inaccurate probability prediction method and system for photovoltaic power ramp events considering the influence of daily periodicity. Background technique [0002] The statements in this section merely provide background information related to the present invention and do not necessarily constitute prior art. [0003] In recent years, the rapid development of renewable energy power generation and its penetration rate in the power grid have continued to increase. While effectively alleviating environmental pollution and resource crises, it also poses challenges to the safe and stable operation of the power grid due to its inherent randomness and volatility. In particular, the power ramp event of photovoltaic power plants, that is, large fluctuations in output power in a short period of time, may cause damage to the power balance of the grid, ...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
CPCY04S10/50
Inventor 杨明朱文立张利王勃
Owner CHINA ELECTRIC POWER RES INST
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