Calculation method of energy storage capacity index of multi-energy system based on load forecast error

A load prediction error and prediction error technology, which is applied in the field of multi-energy systems, can solve problems such as the weakening of stable operation capabilities of multi-energy systems, and achieve the effects of improving stable operation capabilities, ensuring stable operation, and ensuring stability

Active Publication Date: 2022-05-24
SHENYANG POLYTECHNIC UNIV
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Problems solved by technology

[0002] The load forecast error of multi-energy system is an important factor affecting the safety and stability of multi-energy system. When the error of multi-source load forecast is large, the energy storage device in the multi-energy system will not be able to effectively stabilize the system power fluctuation and improve the system operation quality. The weakening of the stable operation ability of the energy system

Method used

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  • Calculation method of energy storage capacity index of multi-energy system based on load forecast error
  • Calculation method of energy storage capacity index of multi-energy system based on load forecast error
  • Calculation method of energy storage capacity index of multi-energy system based on load forecast error

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Embodiment 1

[0050] like figure 1 As shown in the figure, a method for calculating an energy storage capacity index of a multi-energy system based on a load prediction error includes the following steps:

[0051] Step 1: Calculate the estimation error ratio of electricity, heat and gas loads in the multi-energy system, which includes the following steps:

[0052] Step 1.1: Generally, in a multi-energy system, in order to make the prediction results more in line with the objective requirements, the predicted electric load is regarded as a random variable, and the electric load prediction error has different errors due to different time periods. , the peak-valley period has a large error, and the average period has a small prediction error. The short-term electric load forecast of the day before is regarded as a random variable, and its multiple prediction values ​​are the center. The mean value of the m electrical load forecast values ​​arbitrarily selected in the t period constructs the e...

Embodiment 2

[0095] The parameter value and calculation process are the same as those in Embodiment 1, the difference is:

[0096] In step 1.2, considering that the heat load has a large time inertia, when the heat load prediction error ratio in different time periods is When the absolute value of the difference is less than 5%, the heat load prediction error ratio needs to be calculated by the multivariate binomial linear regression equation given by formula (12) to the heat load prediction error ratio. make corrections;

[0097]

[0098] In the formula, is the correction value of the heat load prediction error ratio, β 0 ,β 1 ,β 2 is the weight factor for the prediction error ratio of different heat loads under the same confidence level, when the confidence level is 95%, β 0 =0.0308,β 1 =0.0307,β 2 =0.0031.

[0099] In this embodiment 2, it is assumed that the period of t=1 is 0.97%, when the heat load prediction confidence is 95%, select the following parameter β 0 =0.0...

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Abstract

The invention proposes a method for calculating the energy storage capacity index of a multi-energy system based on the load prediction error. First, the estimation error ratio of the electric, thermal and gas loads in the multi-energy system is calculated, and then the actual energy storage device of the multi-energy system is calculated. operation capacity, and finally calculate the operation index of the energy storage device of the multi-energy system based on the load prediction error. The present invention quantifies the operation degree of the energy storage device of the multi-energy system by calculating the operation capacity index of the battery energy storage, electricity-to-gas, and electric heat storage devices. The system operation instability caused by the load prediction error in the multi-energy system is reduced.

Description

technical field [0001] The technology relates to the field of multi-energy systems, in particular to a method for calculating an energy storage capacity index of a multi-energy system based on a load prediction error. Background technique [0002] The load prediction error of the multi-energy system is an important factor affecting the safety and stability of the multi-energy system. When the multi-source load prediction error is large, the energy storage device in the multi-energy system will not be able to effectively suppress the system power fluctuation, improve the system operation quality, and make the multi-energy system more efficient. The weakening of the stable operation ability of the energy system. Therefore, it is necessary to fully consider the constraint relationship between the multi-source load prediction error and the energy storage device of the multi-energy system, and calculate the operating capacity index of the energy storage device of the multi-energy...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/06G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/06393G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
Inventor 滕云弓玮王泽镝左浩金红洋孙鹏
Owner SHENYANG POLYTECHNIC UNIV
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