Major infectious disease propagation risk early warning and prevention and control analysis system for COVID-19

A risk early warning and analysis system technology, applied in the field of infectious disease risk and prevention and control systems, can solve the problems of not considering the transmission characteristics of COVID-19, inconsistent dynamic transmission mechanism, lack of quantitative calculation methods, etc.

Pending Publication Date: 2020-10-30
ZHEJIANG UNIV
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Problems solved by technology

However, the classic infectious disease model does not take into account the new transmission characteristics of COVID-19, including: the long incubation period of COVID-19 and the infectivity during the incubation period, the impact of intervention measures on the spread of the epidemic, and the time-varying characteristics of parameters etc., there are some limitations when applied to the analysis of the t

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  • Major infectious disease propagation risk early warning and prevention and control analysis system for COVID-19
  • Major infectious disease propagation risk early warning and prevention and control analysis system for COVID-19

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specific Embodiment

[0068] The specific embodiments of the complete method according to the content of the present invention are as follows:

[0069] like figure 1 As shown, the specifically implemented system includes: a propagation model building module, a model solving module, a propagation risk early warning module, and a risk prevention and control analysis module.

[0070] Among them, the transmission model building module is used to divide the population status in the outbreak area of ​​infectious diseases, and establish the state transition relationship between different population states according to the pathological characteristics of the infectious disease, so as to build the infectious disease transmission dynamics model; the model solving module, Input the historical data of epidemic transmission, solve the dynamic model of infectious disease transmission through parameter identification optimization method, and output the relationship between the spread of infectious diseases over t...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a major infectious disease propagation risk early warning and prevention and control analysis system for COVID-19. The system comprises a propagation model building module usedfor building an infectious disease propagation kinetic model; a model solving module used for solving the infectious disease propagation kinetic model and outputting the change relation of the infectious disease diffusion degree along with time; a propagation risk early warning module used for evaluating the propagation risk of the infectious disease and outputting propagation risk early warninginformation; and a risk prevention and control analysis module used for analyzing the sensitivity of different parameter changes to infectious disease propagation risks and outputting infectious disease propagation risk prevention and control measures. According to the invention, the system can effectively evaluate the dynamic propagation risks of an the infectious disease and timely issue risk early warning information according to the dynamic transmission mechanism of COVID-19, can analyze the effect of different parameters on prevention and control of infectious disease propagation risks, and provides scientific and reliable risk prevention and control measures, so that the risk of large-scale spreading of infectious diseases is effectively reduced, and public health safety is guaranteed.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to an infectious disease risk and prevention and control system in the technical fields of public health security and epidemiology, and relates to a major infectious disease transmission risk early warning and prevention and control analysis system in the case of a large-scale outbreak of novel coronavirus pneumonia. Background technique [0002] Existing studies have shown that COVID-19 exhibits more special transmission characteristics than previous infectious diseases, resulting in faster spread, wider spread, and higher risk of transmission. [0003] In related technologies, extensive research has been carried out on the theory and modeling of major infectious diseases, including warehouse models such as SIR and SEIR. These models provide important means for describing the transmission mechanism and process of infectious diseases. However, the classic infectious disease model does not take into account the new transmission cha...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G16H50/80G16H50/30
CPCG16H50/30G16H50/80
Inventor 丁一桑茂盛包铭磊涂腾
Owner ZHEJIANG UNIV
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