Long-time-sequence earth surface short wave cloud radiation forced effect estimation method and system

Abstract

The invention provides a long-time-sequence earth surface short wave cloud radiation forced effect estimation method and system. The method comprises the following steps: acquiring parameters of atmospheric roof incident solar radiation, atmospheric roof emergent short wave radiation under clear sky and all-sky conditions and earth surface short wave radiation under clear sky conditions; on the basis of a plane parallel hypothesis principle, constructing a correlation radiation transfer equation between the cloud coverage degree and parameters of atmospheric roof incident solar radiation, atmospheric roof emergent short-wave radiation under clear sky and all-sky conditions and earth surface short-wave radiation under the clear sky condition; according to a related radiation transfer equation, a long-time-sequence grid-by-grid cloud radiation nucleus of the whole-layer cloud coverage degree is calculated under a finite difference framework; and determining cloud coverage information, and multiplying the long-time-sequence grid-by-grid cloud radiation nucleus by the cloud coverage information to obtain an earth surface short wave radiation effect caused by the cloud coverage. According to the correlation between the TOA and the earth surface radiation parameter, the satellite observation data can be directly input for correlation calculation, and the calculation efficiency is greatly improved.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of earth radiation energy balance, and in particular to a method and system for estimating long-term surface shortwave cloud radiation forcing effect. Background Art

[0002] Downwelling Surface Shortwave Radiation (DSSR) is a key factor in revealing the earth's energy balance and climate change mechanism. Cloud coverage information is an important parameter for regulating surface shortwave radiation. Correctly quantifying the forcing effect of cloud coverage disturbance on surface shortwave radiation is of great significance for revealing the driving mechanism of radiation parameter changes and thus better predicting the earth's radiation energy balance and long-term climate change. A large number of studies have summarized the impact of clouds on surface shortwave radiation using satellite observations, model simulations, and parameters of reanalysis data. Compared with cloud-free conditions, cloud cover reduces the incoming solar radiation of the earth by 49Wm -2 , accounting for about 14% of the total incident solar radiation. The DSSR difference caused by cloud cover deviation is as high as 10-90Wm -2 . However, these studies only considered statistical correlations and did not deeply consider the radiation transfer mechanism between cloud characteristics and surface shortwave radiation parameters. Since the physical and chemical properties of clouds are very complex, the differences in radiation flux obtained from these statistical relationships may be the combined effect of the interaction of multiple cloud or non-cloud factors, and there is a large temporal and spatial sensitivity. In order to avoid additional errors caused by different input parameters as much as possible, it is of great significance to understand the cloud and radiation processes and correctly quantify the impact of cloud coverage on the surface incident shortwave radiation budget, so as to improve the accuracy of surface radiation parameters and better predict long-term climate change.

[0003] The premise for achieving this goal is to separate the contribution of cloud cover from the complex disturbance factors. The existing single-parameter radiative forcing contribution quantification method has low computational efficiency and large temporal and spatial differences, and cannot accurately quantify the long-term radiative forcing effect caused by parameter changes. Using effective means to efficiently separate and quantify the radiative contribution of cloud cover changes to DSSR is crucial for improving cloud parameterization schemes in climate models and more accurately understanding the role of clouds in the Earth's climate system. Traditional methods use global climate models and partial radiation perturbation algorithms (PRP) to separate the contribution of specific variable perturbations (such as temperature, water vapor, surface albedo, and clouds) to TOA radiation flux. Such methods usually require running simulation experiments on a time scale of more than 100 years to express the climate feedback state in the global climate model, which is computationally intensive and unstable. In addition, there are often large deviations in the simulation of atmospheric profiles by different climate models, resulting in great differences in the climate feedback simulation results of different models, affecting the accuracy of quantification of radiation contributions. Radiative kernels are a method that is less computationally intensive and effectively separates the radiation contribution of a single variable. However, this method still faces two uncertainties. First, current studies mostly use non-cloud radiation kernels to indirectly estimate the impact of cloud cover changes on radiative forcing effects, which can easily confuse the radiation contributions of cloud and non-cloud parameters. Second, existing studies only use atmospheric profile simulation data of a specific area within a calendar year to construct radiation kernels, ignoring the interannual and spatial variation characteristics of the parameters, which can easily lead to large spatiotemporal errors. Therefore, it is proposed to use high-precision cloud cover information and all-sky SSR estimation methods to construct cloud radiation kernels with higher computational efficiency and better spatiotemporal adaptability, and directly quantify the impact of cloud cover changes on long-term radiative forcing.

[0004] At present, there are three main methods for separating the contribution of changes in individual influencing factors to radiation. One is the data simulation method, such as using a radiation transfer model to simulate the transmission process of radiation parameters in the atmosphere and on the surface, and quantifying the radiation forcing caused by cloud characteristics by inputting additional atmospheric information; or converting the cloud characteristics simulated by a satellite simulator into synthetic observations obtained by a series of satellite observation systems to separate the impact of cloud bias in the model on the balance of surface radiation parameters. The second commonly used separation method is the partial perturbation algorithm, which was originally proposed by Wetherald and Manabe. It uses the difference between the global climate model change experiment and the perturbation experiment to separate the TOA radiation flux changes caused by specific variables. The advantage of this method is that it can directly calculate various climate feedbacks. At present, the radiation kernel-based method has been widely used in assessing climate feedbacks. It constructs a radiation kernel by limiting the change value of a single variable to a small perturbation, and uses the radiation kernel as a constant factor to calculate the perturbation effect of the variable on the radiation flux at different times and regions. It requires much less overall calculation than the partial perturbation algorithm, and can effectively reduce the correlation error between different influencing factors.

[0005] In order to directly separate the radiation contribution of cloud cover, Thorsen et al. applied similar calculations of partial radiation perturbations to observational data sets and proposed a partial perturbation method based on observational data, CERES-PRP, to calculate the radiation kernel. This method can freely combine perturbation variables to realize the calculation of flux perturbations, and has been successfully applied to the study of long-term changes in surface radiation parameters and the Earth's energy budget in CERES-EBAF.

[0006] It can be seen that data simulation and partial perturbation methods require a large amount of model simulation and training, with high requirements for computing resources and low computational efficiency. Although the existing radiation kernel method requires a much smaller overall amount of computation, its initial calculation still requires running a large-scale global climate model, which is very time-consuming. Existing radiation kernel methods often use control operations within a short period of time, such as a calendar year, to calculate the kernel, ignoring the spatiotemporal variability of the parameters, which can easily lead to large temporal and regional errors. Existing cloud radiation kernels usually need to calculate the radiation kernel of each layer separately in the entire atmospheric profile and then add them together, ignoring the vertical nonlinear effect of the cloud, resulting in large errors in the final radiation kernel estimation. More studies use other non-cloud parameters, such as temperature, water vapor, and surface albedo, to establish non-cloud radiation kernels to indirectly estimate cloud radiative forcing. This method easily confuses the radiation uncertainty caused by non-cloud parameters with the radiative forcing effect of clouds, thereby increasing the radiative contribution of clouds. In addition, most of the current radiation kernels focus on the radiation budget of TOA, and pay insufficient attention to the surface radiation budget and the related radiative forcing contribution. Summary of the invention

[0007] The present invention provides a method and system for estimating the long-term surface shortwave cloud radiative forcing effect, so as to solve the defect that the prior art cannot efficiently separate the surface shortwave cloud radiative forcing effect.

[0008] In a first aspect, the present invention provides a method for estimating the long-term surface shortwave cloud radiative forcing effect, comprising: Obtain the parameters of incident solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere, outgoing shortwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere under clear sky and all-sky conditions, and surface shortwave radiation under clear sky conditions; Based on the principle of plane parallelism assumption, the radiation transfer equations related to cloud coverage and the incident solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere, the outgoing shortwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere under the clear sky and all-sky conditions, and the surface shortwave radiation parameters under the clear sky conditions are constructed; According to the relevant radiation transfer equation, the long-term grid-by-grid cloud radiation kernel of the whole cloud cover is calculated in a finite difference framework; The cloud coverage information is determined, and the long-term grid-by-grid cloud radiation kernel is multiplied by the cloud coverage information to obtain the surface shortwave radiation effect caused by the cloud coverage.

[0009] According to a long-time series method for estimating the shortwave cloud radiative forcing effect on the surface provided by the present invention, the downward radiation flux of the surface when there is no contribution from the surface and the multiple reflection effect between the atmosphere and the bright surface are obtained; The surface downward radiation flux is obtained by summing the surface downward radiation flux when there is no contribution from the surface and the multiple reflection effects between the atmosphere and the bright surface.

[0010] According to a method for estimating the long-term surface shortwave cloud radiative forcing effect provided by the present invention, the surface downward radiation flux under cloudy conditions when the cloud coverage and the surface albedo are 0 and the surface downward radiation flux under clear conditions are weightedly calculated to obtain the surface downward radiation flux when the surface has no contribution; The downward surface radiation flux under cloudy conditions when the surface albedo is 0 is obtained by the downward surface radiation flux under clear sky conditions and the effective cloud albedo.

[0011] According to a long-time series method for estimating the short-wave cloud radiative forcing effect on the surface provided by the present invention, the multiple reflection effect between the atmosphere and the bright surface is obtained by the surface downward radiation flux, surface albedo, cloud albedo, cloud coverage and the transmittance of the atmosphere to diffuse radiation under cloud conditions when the surface has no contribution.

[0012] According to a method for estimating the long-time-series surface shortwave cloud radiative forcing effect provided by the present invention, the cloud albedo is obtained by dividing the effective cloud albedo by the cloud coverage; The effective cloud albedo is a function of incident solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere and the surface absorptivity; the surface absorptivity is obtained by the correlation between the observed shortwave radiation value at the top of the atmosphere, the clear sky surface shortwave radiation and cloud coverage.

[0013] According to a long-term surface shortwave cloud radiative forcing effect estimation method provided by the present invention, cloud coverage is taken as the only influencing factor of radiation parameters, and the influence value of cloud coverage variable on radiation flux is calculated according to the finite difference principle; The cloud cover disturbance variable is obtained by the difference between the cloud cover variable and the initial climate mean value of the cloud cover variable; The general impact value of the cloud coverage variable on the radiation flux includes the whole sky surface incident shortwave radiation parameter, the cloud coverage disturbance variable, the remaining radiation related variables except the initial climate mean value of the cloud coverage variable, and the forward finite difference truncation error; Calculating the flux disturbance related to the general impact value of the cloud coverage variable on the radiation flux and the monthly average value, and obtaining the monthly average impact value of the cloud coverage variable on the radiation flux; The forward finite difference value and the backward finite difference value of the monthly average impact value of the cloud coverage variable on the radiation flux are respectively averaged to obtain the central difference value of the monthly average impact value of the cloud coverage variable on the radiation flux; According to the preset cloud coverage, the central difference value of the monthly average impact of the cloud coverage variable on the radiation flux is normalized to obtain the long-term grid-by-grid radiation kernel of the entire cloud coverage.

[0014] In a second aspect, the present invention further provides a long-time series surface shortwave cloud radiative forcing effect estimation system, comprising: An acquisition module is used to obtain the incident shortwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere, the incident shortwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere under clear sky and full sky conditions, and the shortwave radiation parameters of the surface under clear sky conditions; A construction module is used to construct radiation transfer equations related to cloud coverage and incident shortwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere, incident shortwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere under clear sky and full sky conditions, and surface shortwave radiation parameters under clear sky conditions based on the principle of plane parallelism assumption; A calculation module, used for calculating the long-term grid-by-grid radiation kernel of the entire cloud coverage in a finite difference framework according to the relevant radiation transfer equation; The estimation module is used to determine the cloud coverage information, multiply the long-term grid-by-grid cloud radiation kernel by the cloud coverage information, and obtain the surface shortwave radiation effect caused by the cloud coverage.

[0015] In a third aspect, the present invention also provides an electronic device comprising a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein when the processor executes the program, a method for estimating the long-time-series surface shortwave cloud radiation forcing effect as described above is implemented.

[0016] In a fourth aspect, the present invention further provides a non-transitory computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, which, when executed by a processor, implements any of the above-described methods for estimating the long-time series surface shortwave cloud radiation forcing effects.

[0017] The long-term surface shortwave cloud radiation forcing effect estimation method and system provided by the present invention calculates the long-term grid-by-grid radiation kernel of the entire cloud coverage by using the radiation transfer equation of the entire cloud coverage combined with the finite difference method, and obtains the corresponding surface shortwave cloud radiation effect by using high-precision cloud coverage information. Satellite observation data can be directly used as input, and there is no need to run a large-scale climate model, which greatly improves the speed of calculation. Compared with the traditional research on direct estimation of TOA cloud radiation effect, the present invention uses the correlation between TOA radiation parameters and surface radiation parameters to directly estimate the cloud radiation forcing effect of surface shortwave radiation, effectively making up for the deficiency of the research on surface cloud radiation forcing effect. In addition, unlike the existing cloud radiation kernel estimation method, the present invention does not decompose the cloud layer layer by layer, but directly calculates the radiation kernel of the entire cloud layer, effectively avoiding the estimation deviation caused by not fully considering the nonlinear effect in the layering algorithm, but uses long-term parameter data to construct grid-by-grid radiation kernels, effectively reducing the estimation error caused by the spatiotemporal variability of parameters, and finally obtaining a high-precision surface shortwave cloud radiation effect. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0018] In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions in the present invention or the prior art, the drawings required for use in the embodiments or the description of the prior art will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the drawings described below are some embodiments of the present invention. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without paying creative work.

[0019] Figure 1 It is a schematic diagram of the flow of the method for estimating the long-time series surface shortwave cloud radiative forcing effect provided by the present invention; Figure 2 It is a schematic diagram of the radiation kernel of the monthly average cloud coverage from April to September provided by the present invention; Figure 3 It is a schematic diagram comparing the latitude-weighted average values ​​of the ISCCP-FH CRK, Zhou-CTP / CBP CRK provided by the present invention and the radiation kernel calculated by the present invention; Figure 4 It is a schematic diagram of the monthly average climate value of the surface cloud radiation effect from April to September provided by the present invention; Figure 5 It is a schematic diagram of the structure of the long-time series surface shortwave cloud radiative forcing effect estimation system provided by the present invention; Figure 6 It is a structural schematic diagram of the electronic device provided by the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0020] In order to make the purpose, technical solution and advantages of the present invention clearer, the technical solution of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below in conjunction with the drawings of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0021] In view of the deficiency of the existing technology that the shortwave cloud radiation forcing effect on the surface cannot be separated efficiently, the present invention proposes a long-term estimation method for the shortwave cloud radiation forcing effect on the surface, studies the correlation between TOA radiation parameters and surface radiation parameters, and constructs the radiation transfer equation related to TOA radiation parameters, clear sky radiation parameters and cloud coverage parameters based on the plane parallel hypothesis principle, and calculates the long-term grid-by-grid cloud radiation kernel of the entire cloud coverage in the finite difference framework. Then, the cloud radiation kernel is multiplied by the high-precision cloud coverage information to obtain the surface shortwave radiation effect caused by the cloud coverage.

[0022] Figure 1 is a flow chart of a method for estimating the long-term surface shortwave cloud radiative forcing effect provided by an embodiment of the present invention, such as Figure 1 As shown, including: Step 100: Obtaining the incident shortwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere, the incident shortwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere under clear sky and full sky conditions, and the shortwave radiation parameters of the surface under clear sky conditions; Step 200: Based on the plane parallel hypothesis principle, construct the radiation transfer equation related to the cloud coverage and the incident solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere, the outgoing shortwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere under the clear sky and full sky conditions, and the surface shortwave radiation parameters under the clear sky condition; Step 300: Calculate the long-term grid-by-grid cloud radiation kernel of the entire cloud coverage in a finite difference framework according to the relevant radiation transfer equation; Step 400: Determine cloud coverage information, multiply the long-term grid-by-grid cloud radiation kernel by the cloud coverage information, and obtain the surface shortwave radiation effect caused by cloud coverage.

[0023] It should be noted that the influence of clouds on radiation parameters is very complex, and different cloud parameters, such as cloud type, height, optical thickness and other information, will produce different disturbance effects. Since the present invention focuses on the surface shortwave cloud radiation effect caused by changes in cloud coverage, in order to minimize the deviation caused by other cloud parameters, we simplify the complex relationship between clouds and radiation energy balance parameters into a radiation transmission process related to cloud coverage based on the radiation transmission principle, and use the finite difference algorithm to construct a long-term grid-by-grid cloud coverage radiation kernel, and estimate the long-term surface shortwave cloud radiation forcing effect by multiplying it with the cloud coverage data.

[0024] Specifically, the present invention assumes that the surface is a Lambertian surface, and the calculation formula for the downward radiation flux of the surface is: (1) The first term of the above formula represents the downward radiation flux from the surface when there is no contribution from the surface, and the second term represents the multiple reflection effect between the atmosphere and the bright surface. is the surface albedo, is the cloud albedo, f is the cloud coverage, T is the transmittance of the atmosphere to diffuse radiation under cloud conditions, which depends on a variety of atmospheric parameters. In the present invention, in order to simplify its calculation, empirical parameters are directly used in combination with observed values ​​for estimation.

[0025] When considering the effect of cloud cover, By cloud cover f Weighted to get: (2) in, It represents the downward radiation flux of the surface under cloudy conditions when the surface albedo is 0. It represents the downward radiation flux from the surface under clear sky conditions. It can be expressed as Function: (3) in It can be approximated by cloud albedo, and the product of cloud albedo and cloud coverage can be used to represent the effective cloud albedo: (4) in represents the net shortwave radiation at the surface.

[0026] According to the correlation between TOA radiation parameters and surface shortwave radiation parameters, the surface absorption rate a s It can also be expressed as a function of the net shortwave radiation of the surface: (5) Therefore, the effective albedo of clouds can be expressed as a function of the incident shortwave TOA and the surface absorptivity, (6) Considering It can be expressed as a linear function of TOA albedo, and the corresponding cloud albedo can be calculated from TOA observations, clear sky surface shortwave, and cloud coverage. Finally, the DSSR under full sky conditions can be expressed as a function of satellite-observed TOA shortwave radiation, clear sky DSSR, and cloud coverage.

[0027] In order to separate the sensitivity of cloud cover to radiation budget changes in the observation data, the present invention converts cloud cover into f As the only influencing factor of radiation parameters, when it changes ( Δf ), according to the finite difference principle, the influence of this variable on the radiation flux for: (7) in, F For all-sky DSSR, Δf is the perturbed variable relative to the initial climate mean of the variable changes, that is The monthly climate mean refers to the average of all data in a calendar month (April-September in this paper) in the time series under study. All variables related to radiation transfer except . represents the truncation error of the forward finite difference, and its subscript C In order to minimize the impact of the spatiotemporal variability of cloud coverage on the calculation results, the present invention prefers to calculate the flux perturbation related to the monthly average: (8) f represents the monthly average cloud cover, subscript M The perturbation of this flux is related to the monthly average basic state. In this formula, the truncation error is the same as the order of the perturbation variable itself. Therefore, the calculated perturbation flux is not only related to the perturbation variable, but may also be the flux change caused by the decorrelation between the perturbation variable and the non-perturbation variable. In order to minimize it, consider using the central finite difference value to increase its order. Therefore, it is necessary to introduce backward finite differences: (9) The average of the flux perturbation values ​​obtained twice is: (10) Although the use of central differences can reduce the effect of decorrelation between related variables, the perturbation state of the parameter f+ Δf and f-Δf The physical limit value of the parameter itself may be exceeded and it cannot be applied to the radiation transfer calculation process. Therefore, a two-step substitution scheme is proposed in the present invention, that is, when the cloud coverage disturbance state in the equation is invalid, the corresponding monthly average value is first replaced by the monthly climate average value. If the replacement value is still a non-physical quantity, it is directly filled with the lower or upper limit of the cloud coverage effective value interval close to the value, and finally the radiation disturbance is calculated using the central difference.

[0028] In order to further simplify the quantification process of the radiative forcing effect of cloud cover perturbations, this paper follows the calculation method of Thorsen et al. in CERES-PRP and uses the observed variable anomalies to replace the fixed perturbations, that is, the radiation perturbation is normalized by the variable causing the perturbation to calculate the radiation kernel. In this concept, the cloud cover radiation kernel obtained is a by-product of the central difference calculation of the radiation perturbation, which represents the contribution to the DSSR when the cloud cover is 1%.

[0029] (11) In the present invention, the monthly cloud cover radiance kernel (GCF-CRK) can be obtained by using the fused high-precision cloud cover dataset and the CERES observation dataset, as shown in Figure 2 The monthly average scores of CRKs are shown as well as Figure 4 The monthly climatological averages of the monthly surface cloud radiation effects are shown in Figure 3 The latitude weighted average values ​​of the radiation kernels calculated by ISCCP-FH CRK, Zhou-CTP / CBP CRK and the present invention are compared. The surface shortwave cloud radiation effect can be obtained by multiplying the calculated whole-layer cloud radiation kernel by the cloud coverage data set.

[0030] The long-time series surface shortwave cloud radiation forcing effect estimation system provided by the present invention is described below. The long-time series surface shortwave cloud radiation forcing effect estimation system described below and the long-time series surface shortwave cloud radiation forcing effect estimation method described above can be referenced to each other.

[0031] Figure 5 is a schematic diagram of the structure of a system for estimating the long-time-series surface shortwave cloud radiative forcing effect provided by an embodiment of the present invention. Figure 5 As shown, it includes: an acquisition module 51, a construction module 52, a calculation module 53 and an estimation module 54, wherein: The acquisition module 51 is used to obtain the incident solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere, the outgoing shortwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere under clear sky and all-sky conditions, and the surface shortwave radiation parameters under clear sky conditions; the construction module 52 is used to construct the relevant radiation transfer equations of cloud coverage and the incident solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere, the outgoing shortwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere under clear sky and all-sky conditions, and the surface shortwave radiation parameters under clear sky conditions based on the principle of plane parallel hypothesis; the calculation module 53 is used to calculate the long-term grid-by-grid radiation kernel of the entire cloud coverage in a finite difference framework according to the relevant radiation transfer equations; the estimation module 54 is used to determine the cloud coverage information, multiply the long-term grid-by-grid radiation kernel by the cloud coverage information, and obtain the surface shortwave radiation effect caused by cloud coverage.

[0032] Figure 6An example of a physical structure diagram of an electronic device is shown in FIG. Figure 6 As shown, the electronic device may include: a processor (processor) 610, a communication interface (Communications Interface) 620, a memory (memory) 630 and a communication bus 640, wherein the processor 610, the communication interface 620, and the memory 630 communicate with each other through the communication bus 640. The processor 610 can call the logic instructions in the memory 630 to execute the long-term surface shortwave cloud radiation forcing effect estimation method, which includes: obtaining the incident solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere, the outgoing shortwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere under clear sky and full sky conditions, and the surface shortwave radiation parameters under clear sky conditions; based on the principle of plane parallel hypothesis, constructing the relevant radiation transfer equations of cloud coverage and the incident solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere, the outgoing radiation parameters at the top of the atmosphere under clear sky and full sky conditions, and the surface shortwave radiation parameters under clear sky conditions; according to the relevant radiation transfer equations, calculating the long-term grid-by-grid cloud radiation kernel of the entire cloud coverage in a finite difference framework; determining the cloud coverage information, multiplying the long-term grid-by-grid cloud radiation kernel by the cloud coverage information, and obtaining the surface shortwave radiation effect caused by cloud coverage.

[0033] In addition, the logic instructions in the above-mentioned memory 630 can be implemented in the form of a software functional unit and can be stored in a computer-readable storage medium when it is sold or used as an independent product. Based on such an understanding, the technical solution of the present invention, in essence, or the part that contributes to the prior art or the part of the technical solution, can be embodied in the form of a software product, and the computer software product is stored in a storage medium, including a number of instructions for a computer device (which can be a personal computer, a server, or a network device, etc.) to perform all or part of the steps of the method described in each embodiment of the present invention. The aforementioned storage medium includes: U disk, mobile hard disk, read-only memory (ROM, Read-Only Memory), random access memory (RAM, Random Access Memory), disk or optical disk, etc. Various media that can store program codes.

[0034] On the other hand, the present invention also provides a non-transitory computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, which, when executed by a processor, is implemented to execute the long-time series surface shortwave cloud radiation forcing effect estimation method provided by the above-mentioned methods, the method comprising: obtaining the incident solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere, the outgoing shortwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere under clear sky and full sky conditions, and the surface shortwave radiation parameters under clear sky conditions; based on the principle of plane parallel hypothesis, constructing a related radiation transfer equation between cloud coverage and the incident solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere, the outgoing shortwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere under clear sky and full sky conditions, and the surface shortwave radiation parameters under clear sky conditions; according to the related radiation transfer equation, calculating the long-time series grid-by-grid cloud radiation kernel of the entire cloud coverage in a finite difference framework; determining cloud coverage information, multiplying the long-time series grid-by-grid cloud radiation kernel by the cloud coverage information, and obtaining the surface shortwave radiation effect caused by cloud coverage.

[0035] The device embodiments described above are merely illustrative, wherein the units described as separate components may or may not be physically separated, and the components displayed as units may or may not be physical units, that is, they may be located in one place, or they may be distributed on multiple network units. Some or all of the modules may be selected according to actual needs to achieve the purpose of the scheme of this embodiment. Ordinary technicians in this field can understand and implement it without paying creative labor.

[0036] Through the description of the above implementation methods, those skilled in the art can clearly understand that each implementation method can be implemented by means of software plus a necessary general hardware platform, and of course, can also be implemented by hardware. Based on this understanding, the above technical solution is essentially or the part that contributes to the prior art can be embodied in the form of a software product, and the computer software product can be stored in a computer-readable storage medium, such as ROM / RAM, a disk, an optical disk, etc., including a number of instructions for a computer device (which can be a personal computer, a server, or a network device, etc.) to execute the methods described in each embodiment or some parts of the embodiments.

[0037] Finally, it should be noted that the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention, rather than to limit it. Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the aforementioned embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that they can still modify the technical solutions described in the aforementioned embodiments, or make equivalent replacements for some of the technical features therein. However, these modifications or replacements do not deviate the essence of the corresponding technical solutions from the spirit and scope of the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for estimating the long-term surface shortwave cloud radiative forcing effect, characterized in that: include: Obtain the parameters of incident solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere, outgoing shortwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere under clear sky and all-sky conditions, and surface shortwave radiation under clear sky conditions; Based on the principle of plane parallelism assumption, the radiation transfer equations related to cloud coverage and the incident solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere, the outgoing shortwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere under the clear sky and all-sky conditions, and the surface shortwave radiation parameters under the clear sky conditions are constructed; According to the relevant radiation transfer equation, the long-term grid-by-grid cloud radiation kernel of the whole cloud cover is calculated in a finite difference framework; The cloud coverage information is determined, and the long-term grid-by-grid cloud radiation kernel is multiplied by the cloud coverage information to obtain the surface shortwave radiation effect caused by the cloud coverage.

2. The method for estimating the long-term surface shortwave cloud radiative forcing effect according to claim 1 is characterized in that: Obtain the downward radiation flux from the surface when there is no contribution from the surface, as well as the multiple reflection effects between the atmosphere and the bright surface; The surface downward radiation flux is obtained by summing the surface downward radiation flux when there is no contribution from the surface and the multiple reflection effects between the atmosphere and the bright surface.

3. The method for estimating the long-term surface shortwave cloud radiative forcing effect according to claim 2, characterized in that: The downward radiation flux of the surface under cloudy conditions when the cloud coverage and the surface albedo are 0 and the downward radiation flux of the surface under clear conditions are weighted to obtain the downward radiation flux of the surface when the surface has no contribution; The downward radiation flux of the surface under cloudy conditions when the surface albedo is 0 is given by The surface downward radiation flux and effective cloud albedo under the clear sky conditions are obtained.

4. The method for estimating the long-term surface shortwave cloud radiative forcing effect according to claim 3 is characterized in that: The multiple reflection effect between the atmosphere and the bright surface is obtained from the surface downward radiation flux when the surface has no contribution, the surface albedo, the cloud albedo, the cloud coverage and the transmittance of the atmosphere to diffuse radiation under cloud conditions.

5. The method for estimating the long-term surface shortwave cloud radiative forcing effect according to claim 4 is characterized in that: The cloud albedo is obtained by dividing the effective cloud albedo by the cloud coverage; The effective cloud albedo is a function of the incident solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere and the surface absorptivity; The surface absorptivity is obtained from the correlation between the observed top-of-atmosphere shortwave radiation value, clear-sky surface shortwave radiation and cloud coverage.

6. The method for estimating the long-term surface shortwave cloud radiative forcing effect according to claim 1 is characterized in that: Taking cloud coverage as the only influencing factor of radiation parameters, the influence of cloud coverage variable on radiation flux is calculated according to the finite difference principle. The cloud cover disturbance variable is obtained by the difference between the cloud cover variable and the initial climate mean value of the cloud cover variable; The general impact value of the cloud coverage variable on the radiation flux includes the whole sky surface incident shortwave radiation parameter, the cloud coverage disturbance variable, the remaining radiation related variables except the initial climate mean value of the cloud coverage variable, and the forward finite difference truncation error; Calculating the flux disturbance related to the general impact value of the cloud coverage variable on the radiation flux and the monthly average value, and obtaining the monthly average impact value of the cloud coverage variable on the radiation flux; The forward finite difference value and the backward finite difference value of the monthly average impact value of the cloud coverage variable on the radiation flux are respectively averaged to obtain the central difference value of the monthly average impact value of the cloud coverage variable on the radiation flux; According to the preset cloud coverage, the central difference value of the monthly average impact of the cloud coverage variable on the radiation flux is normalized to obtain the long-term grid-by-grid radiation kernel of the entire cloud coverage.

7. A long-term surface shortwave cloud radiative forcing effect estimation system, characterized in that: include: An acquisition module is used to obtain the parameters of incident solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere, outgoing shortwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere under clear sky and full sky conditions, and surface shortwave radiation under clear sky conditions; A construction module is used to construct radiation transfer equations related to cloud coverage and incident solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere, outgoing shortwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere under clear sky and full sky conditions, and surface shortwave radiation parameters under clear sky conditions based on the principle of plane parallelism assumption; A calculation module, used for calculating the long-term grid-by-grid cloud radiation kernel of the entire cloud coverage in a finite difference framework according to the relevant radiation transfer equation; The estimation module is used to determine the cloud coverage information, multiply the long-term grid-by-grid cloud radiation kernel by the cloud coverage information, and obtain the surface shortwave radiation effect caused by the cloud coverage.

8. An electronic device comprising a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein: When the processor executes the program, the long-time series surface shortwave cloud radiation forcing effect estimation method as described in any one of claims 1 to 6 is implemented.

9. A non-transitory computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, characterized in that: When the computer program is executed by a processor, the method for estimating the long-time-series surface shortwave cloud radiative forcing effect as claimed in any one of claims 1 to 6 is implemented.

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