Methods for evaluating water security capabilities of river-lake water system connections

Abstract

The present invention provides a method for evaluating the water security capability of river and lake water systems, comprising the following steps: establishing criteria for evaluating the water security capability of river and lake water systems, including water resources security capability, flood control security capability, and water ecological security capability; establishing different criterion characteristic layers respectively and constructing an evaluation index system according to the actual regional situation; selecting appropriate indicators for calculation according to the constructed index system, and assigning points according to the scoring table, applying the hierarchical analysis method to calculate the water security capability score of river and lake water systems in a certain region, and then identifying the river and lake water system connectivity problems that lead to insufficient water security capability in the evaluation region. The present invention is simple and easy to implement, suitable for the practice of river and lake water system connectivity, can evaluate the water security capability of river and lake water systems, serve the construction of ecological civilization, and promote the high-quality development of regional economy and society.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention belongs to the technical field of river-lake water system connectivity, and specifically relates to a method for evaluating water safety assurance capabilities of river-lake water system connectivity. Background Art

[0002] As an effective measure to optimize the strategic allocation of water resources, improve the ability to resist water disasters, and promote the construction of water ecological civilization, the connection between river and lake water systems plays a vital role in water security. The Party and the State attach great importance to the connection between river and lake water systems, and have issued a series of resolutions and guiding opinions to vigorously promote the construction of river, lake and reservoir water system connection projects, continuously optimize the water supply structure, coordinate the use of surface water and groundwater resources, optimize the allocation of water resources scheduling, enhance the ability to resist floods, and promote water ecological protection and restoration. At the same time, the impact of river and lake water system connection on water security is comprehensive, complex and uncertain. Scientific and reasonable river and lake water system connection projects can effectively enhance water security capabilities and benefit one side, otherwise it will reduce water security capabilities. Therefore, it is very necessary to evaluate the water security capabilities of regional river and lake water system connection for the formulation of river and lake water system connection plans. However, most of the existing standards and guidelines focus on one aspect of water security and cannot reflect the multi-faceted impact of river-lake water system connectivity on water security capabilities. It is urgent to screen water security capability indicators that are sensitive to changes in the characteristics of river-lake water system connectivity from multiple angles of "water resources-water disasters-water ecology", build a water security capability evaluation system for river-lake water system connectivity, evaluate the water security capability of river-lake water system connectivity, serve the construction of ecological civilization, and promote high-quality regional economic and social development. Summary of the invention

[0003] The purpose of the present invention is to address the shortcomings of the prior art and provide a method for evaluating the water security capacity of river and lake water system connectivity. This method screens water security capacity indicators that are sensitive to changes in river and lake water system connectivity characteristics from multiple angles of "water resources-water disasters-water ecology", and evaluates the water security capacity under the regional river and lake water system connectivity characteristics, which is more scientific and reasonable.

[0004] In order to solve the above technical problems, the present invention adopts the following technical solutions:

[0005] A method for evaluating the water security guarantee capability of river and lake water systems, comprising the following steps:

[0006] Step 1: Establish criteria for evaluating water security capabilities of river-lake water system connections, including water resources security capabilities, flood control security capabilities, and water ecological security capabilities;

[0007] Step 2: Create a criteria layer based on the criteria in step 1;

[0008] Step 3: Construct an evaluation index system for water security capacity of river-lake water system connectivity based on the criterion layer of step 2;

[0009] Step 4: Select appropriate indicators based on the indicator system constructed in step 3 for calculation and scoring, and then calculate the water security guarantee capacity score of the river and lake water system connectivity in a certain area;

[0010] Step 5: Compare the water security capability score calculated in step 4 with the regional river and lake water system connectivity water security capability rating table to calculate the river and lake water system connectivity water security capability score, identify water resource security, flood control security, and water ecological security issues in the region, and identify river and lake water system connectivity issues that lead to insufficient water security capability in the evaluation area.

[0011] Furthermore, the criterion layer in step 2 includes a water resources security capability criterion layer, a flood control security capability criterion layer, and a water ecological security capability criterion layer, wherein the water resources security capability criterion layer selects three criterion characteristic layers of water resources carrying capacity, water resources allocation capacity, and water supply security capability; the flood control security capability selects three criterion characteristic layers of flood control compliance, waterlogging removal compliance, and lake and reservoir regulation capacity; the water ecological security capability criterion layer selects three criterion characteristic layers of habitat maintenance capacity, water quality compliance, and biodiversity maintenance capacity.

[0012] Furthermore, in step 3, the water resources carrying capacity selects the water resources development and utilization capacity C w As the recommended indicator, the rainwater resource utilization capacity F is selected. yh and groundwater development and utilization rate η as alternative indicators; water resources allocation capacity selects water resources allocation rate A μ As the recommended index, the dry season water level guarantee rate P is selected. sw and representative station water level satisfaction rate P Z As an alternative indicator; water supply safety guarantee capacity selects water supply safety factor P S As the recommended indicator, the strategic water source emergency guarantee rate K is selected. W as an alternative indicator.

[0013] Furthermore, the calculation formulas of each indicator are as follows:

[0014]

[0015] In the formula, C w Ability to develop and utilize water resources; W u is the amount of water resources development and utilization, m 3 ; W r is the total amount of water resources m 3 ; C0 is the exploitable utilization rate of water resources; In the formula, Fyh W is the ability to utilize rainwater resources; yh In order to transform rainwater into usable water resources through river-lake water system connection projects, m 3 ; W hs is the total amount of rainfall and flood, m 3 ;

[0016] Where, η is the groundwater development and utilization rate; W d is the amount of groundwater extracted in the region, m 3 ; W dt is the total amount of groundwater that can be developed and utilized in the region, m 3 ;

[0017] A μ =w1×γ st +w2×γ dr +w3×γ lf Where A μ is the water resource allocation rate; st is the water storage project allocation rate; dr The water diversion and allocation rate of the river-lake water system connection project; γ lf is the water allocation rate of the pumping station; w 1～3 They are the weights of the water storage project allocation rate, the water diversion allocation rate of the river-lake water system connection project, and the water lifting allocation rate of the pumping station, with a value range of 0 to 1, and w1+w2+w3=1;

[0018] In the formula, γ st is the water storage project allocation rate; W st The water supply of the water storage project (m 3 );W * st is the maximum water storage capacity of the water storage project (m 3 ); In the formula, γ dr W is the water diversion and allocation rate of the river-lake water system connection project; dr Water supply for river-lake water system connection project, m 3 ; W * dr is the maximum water diversion capacity of the river-lake water system connection project, m 3 ;

[0019] In the formula, γ lf is the water allocation rate of the pumping station; W lf Water supply for pumping station, m 3 ; W * lf is the maximum water lifting capacity of the pumping station, m 3 ;

[0020] Where P sw is the water level guarantee rate in the dry season; T S T is the number of periods when the water level reaches the minimum required water level in the dry season; Z is the total number of time periods;

[0021] Where P Z is the water level satisfaction rate of the representative station; T M is the number of time periods when the water level of the representative station reaches the guaranteed water level; T Z is the total number of time periods; P S =W A / W N ;

[0022] Where P S is the water supply safety factor; W A is the sum of the water supply capacity of all water supply projects in the region, m 3 ; W N is the average total water demand in the region in the past five years, m 3 ;

[0023] In the formula, K W is the strategic water source emergency guarantee rate; T E T is the number of years that the strategic water reserve can meet the water shortage; lac is the total number of years with water shortage in the area.

[0024] Furthermore, in step 3, the flood control standard is selected as the flood control system standard rate F A As the recommended indicator, the flood embankment compliance rate R s As an alternative indicator, the drainage system compliance rate R l As the recommended indicator, the reservoir drainage compliance rate K is selected. c As an alternative indicator, the lake and reservoir regulation capacity is selected as the regional flood retention capacity R f As the recommended index, the key reservoir capacity siltation loss rate K is selected. y as an alternative indicator.

[0025] Furthermore, the calculation formulas of each indicator are as follows:

[0026] In the formula, F A is the flood control system compliance rate; N fs is the number of flood control projects in the region that meet the expected standards; N f is the total number of regional flood control projects;

[0027] In the formula, R s is the flood control embankment compliance rate; L sis the standard length of flood control embankment (m); L tol is the total length of the flood control embankment, m;

[0028] In the formula, R l is the drainage system compliance rate; M c is the drainage area that meets the standards, m 2 ;M y is the total planned drainage area, m 2 ;

[0029] In the formula, K c M is the reservoir drainage compliance rate; cl is the drainage area of ​​the reservoir that meets the standards, m 2 ;M yl is the total drainage area planned for the reservoir, m 2 ;

[0030] In the formula, R f is the regional flood retention capacity; W p is the total flood storage volume, m 3 ; W f is the total amount of water inflow from typical historical floods or floods of corresponding frequency, m 3 ;

[0031] In the formula, K y V is the siltation loss rate of key reservoir capacity; los is the total siltation loss storage capacity, m 3 ; V is the total storage capacity of the library, m 3 ;

[0032] Furthermore, in step 3, the habitat maintenance capacity selects the ecological flow (water level) guarantee rate H F As a recommended indicator, the area index of the hydro-continental zone H is selected. A and the suitability of flow velocity (water level) during the key life history period H V As an alternative indicator, the water quality compliance rate W of the representative section is selected as the water quality compliance rate S As the recommended indicator, the water quality compliance rate W of the water functional area is selected. Q and regional river-lake water exchange rate W E As an alternative indicator, the biodiversity maintenance capacity selects the indicator species diversity B I As a recommended indicator, select the main group biodiversity B M as an alternative indicator.

[0033] Furthermore, the calculation formulas of each indicator are as follows:

[0034] In the formula, HF is the ecological flow / water level guarantee rate; D F The number of sections / water bodies that meet the ecological flow / water level; D E is the total number of sections / water bodies evaluated;

[0035] In the formula, H A L is the area index of the terrestrial and hydrological zone; O The number of water bodies that meet the area or width requirements of the ecotone; L E To evaluate the total number of water bodies;

[0036] In the formula, H V N is the suitability of flow velocity / water level during the critical life history period; O N is the number of sections where the flow velocity / water level of rivers and lakes meets the standard; E is the total number of river and lake sections involved in the assessment;

[0037] Where W S A is the water quality compliance rate of the representative section; O is the number of sections that meet the water quality standards; A E is the total number of representative sections;

[0038] Where W Q F is the water quality compliance rate of water functional areas; O F is the number of water function areas that meet the standards; E is the total number of water functional areas;

[0039] Where W E is the regional river-lake water exchange rate; R Z is the annual river and lake water inflow, m 3 ; V h is the volume of rivers and lakes, m 3 ;

[0040] In the formula, B I is indicative species diversity; M O is the number of indicator species; M E is the number of indicator species in the reference system;

[0041] In the formula, B M is the species diversity of the main groups; n is the total number of groups; Y i is the number of species in the i-th group in the region; JY i is the number of species in the i-th group of the reference system in the region.

[0042] Furthermore, in step 4, the analytic hierarchy process is used to calculate the water security guarantee capacity score of the river and lake water system connectivity in a certain region, wherein the analytic hierarchy process steps are:

[0043] (1) Construct a judgment matrix: For a certain evaluation indicator, there are n indicators of the same level, a ij is the relative importance of the i-th indicator to the j-th indicator, and the judgment matrix is:

[0044]

[0045] (2) Processing the judgment matrix: Normalize each column of the judgment matrix A, calculate the eigenvector and maximum eigenvalue of the judgment matrix, and calculate the random consistency ratio for consistency test: B = (b ij ) n×n , C=(C1,C2,…,C n ) T ,

[0046] W=(W1,W2,…,W n ) T ;

[0047]

[0048]

[0049]

[0050] Where W is the matrix approximation eigenvector; λ max is the maximum eigenvalue; AW i is the i-th component of AW; CR is the random consistency ratio of the judgment matrix; CI is the general consistency index of the judgment matrix; RI is obtained by looking up the table; if CR < 0.1, the judgment matrix is ​​considered to pass the consistency test; the maximum eigenvalue λ max Each component of the corresponding eigenvector W represents the relative weight of each indicator of this layer to the indicator of the previous level.

[0051] (3) According to the above process, the weight of each level of indicators is calculated, and the weight of each evaluation indicator relative to the overall goal is obtained by multiplying them level by level from bottom to top. Finally, each indicator is weighted level by level according to its weight to conduct a comprehensive evaluation of the goal, which is calculated according to the following formula:

[0052]

[0053] In the formula, CI ws The score for the water security guarantee capability of the regional river and lake water system connection; * 1. w *2. w * 3 are the weights of the three security capabilities of water resources security, flood control security and water ecological security; w i,j is the weight of the jth aspect in the i-th aspect guarantee capability; I i,j Score for the jth analysis indicator of the i-th aspect of assurance capability.

[0054] Furthermore, in step 5, the water security guarantee capacity score of the regional river and lake water system is CI ws It ranges from 0 to 100 and is divided into the following three levels:

[0055] (1) Adaptation: CI ws >85, indicating that the water security guarantee capacity of the regional river and lake water system is compatible with the demand;

[0056] (2) Basic adaptation: 60<CI ws ≤85, indicating that the water security guarantee capacity of the regional river and lake water system is basically compatible with the demand;

[0057] (3) Incompatible: CI ws ≤60, indicating that the water security capacity of the regional river and lake water system is not in line with the demand.

[0058] Compared with the prior art, the beneficial effects of the present invention are as follows: the present invention screens water security capability indicators that are sensitive to changes in river and lake water system connectivity characteristics from multiple angles of "water resources-water disasters-water ecology", evaluates water security capability under regional river and lake water system connectivity characteristics, identifies river and lake water system connectivity needs, and makes the judgment more scientific and reasonable; the method of the present invention is simple and easy to implement, suitable for the practice of river and lake water system connectivity, can evaluate the water security capability of river and lake water system connectivity, and can also be used for comparative evaluation of implementation plans of river and lake water system connectivity projects, serve the construction of ecological civilization, promote high-quality regional economic and social development, and provide a basis for subsequent research and planning. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0059] Figure 1 This is a schematic diagram of the weights of evaluation indicators for the water security assurance capability of the river and lake water systems connected in Linyi City according to an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0060] The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be described clearly and completely below in combination with the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0061] It should be noted that, in the absence of conflict, the embodiments of the present invention and the features in the embodiments may be combined with each other.

[0062] The present invention will be further described below in conjunction with specific embodiments, but the present invention is not limited thereto.

[0063] The present invention discloses a method for evaluating the water security guarantee capability of connecting river and lake water systems, comprising the following steps:

[0064] Step 1: Establish criteria for evaluating water security capabilities of river-lake water system connections, including water resources security capabilities, flood control security capabilities, and water ecological security capabilities;

[0065] Step 2: Establish the criteria layer according to the criteria in step 1; the criteria layer includes the water resources security capability criteria layer, the flood control security capability criteria layer, and the water ecological security capability criteria layer. Among them, the water resources security capability criteria layer selects three criterion characteristic layers: water resources carrying capacity, water resources allocation capacity, and water supply security capability; the flood control security capability selects three criterion characteristic layers: flood control compliance, waterlogging removal compliance, and lake and reservoir regulation capacity; the water ecological security capability criteria layer selects three criterion characteristic layers: habitat maintenance capacity, water quality compliance, and biodiversity maintenance capacity;

[0066] Step 3: Based on the criterion layer of step 2, an evaluation index system for water security capacity of river-lake water system connectivity is constructed; among them, the water resources carrying capacity is selected as the water resources development and utilization capacity C w As the recommended indicator, the rainwater resource utilization capacity F is selected. yh and groundwater development and utilization rate η as alternative indicators; water resources allocation capacity selects water resources allocation rate A μ As the recommended index, the dry season water level guarantee rate P is selected. sw and representative station water level satisfaction rate P Z As an alternative indicator; water supply safety guarantee capacity selects water supply safety factor P S As the recommended indicator, the strategic water source emergency guarantee rate K is selected. W As alternative indicators; the calculation formula of each indicator is:

[0067] In the formula, C w Ability to develop and utilize water resources; W u The amount of water resources developed and utilized (m 3 );W r is the total amount of water resources (m 3 );C0 is the exploitable utilization rate of water resources.

[0068] In the formula, F yh W is the ability to utilize rainwater resources; yh To transform rainwater into available water resources through river-lake water system connection projects (m 3);W hs is the total amount of rainfall (m 3 );

[0069] Where, η is the groundwater development and utilization rate; W d is the amount of groundwater extracted in the region (m 3 );W dt is the total amount of groundwater that can be exploited in the region (m 3 );

[0070] A μ =w1×γ st +w2×γ dr +w3×γ lf ;

[0071] In the formula, A μ is the water resource allocation rate; st is the water storage project allocation rate; dr The water diversion and allocation rate of the river-lake water system connection project; γ lf is the water allocation rate of the pumping station; w 1～3 is the weight of the water storage project allocation rate, the water diversion allocation rate of the river-lake water system connection project, and the water lifting allocation rate of the pumping station, with a value range of 0 to 1, and w1+w2+w3=1;

[0072]

[0073] In the formula, γ st is the water storage project allocation rate; W st The water supply of the water storage project (m 3 );W * st is the maximum water storage capacity of the water storage project (m 3 );

[0074] In the formula, γ dr W is the water diversion and allocation rate of the river-lake water system connection project; dr Water supply for river-lake water system connection project (m 3 );W * dr is the maximum water diversion capacity of the river-lake water system connection project (m 3 );

[0075] In the formula, γ lf is the water allocation rate of the pumping station; W lf Water supply for pumping station (m 3 );W * lf is the maximum water lifting capacity of the pumping station (m 3 );

[0076] Where P sw is the water level guarantee rate in the dry season; T S T is the number of periods when the water level reaches the minimum required water level in the dry season; Z is the total number of time periods;

[0077] Where P Z is the water level satisfaction rate of the representative station; T M is the number of time periods when the water level of the representative station reaches the guaranteed water level; T Z is the total number of time periods; P S =W A / W N ;

[0078] Where P S is the water supply safety factor; W A The sum of the water supply capacity of all water supply projects in the region (m 3 );W N is the average total water demand of the region in the past five years (m 3 );

[0079] In the formula, K W is the strategic water source emergency guarantee rate; T E T is the number of years that the strategic water reserve can meet the water shortage; lac is the total number of years of water shortage in the region. The flood control compliance rate is the flood control system compliance rate F A As the recommended indicator, the flood embankment compliance rate R s As an alternative indicator, the drainage system compliance rate R l As the recommended indicator, the reservoir drainage compliance rate K is selected. c As an alternative indicator, the lake and reservoir regulation capacity is selected as the regional flood retention capacity R f As the recommended index, the key reservoir capacity siltation loss rate K is selected. y As alternative indicators, the calculation formulas for each indicator are:

[0080]

[0081] In the formula, F A is the flood control system compliance rate; N fs is the number of flood control projects in the region that meet the expected standards; N f is the total number of regional flood control projects;

[0082] In the formula, R s is the flood control embankment compliance rate; L s is the standard length of flood control embankment (m); L tolis the total length of flood control levees (m);

[0083] In the formula, R l is the drainage system compliance rate; M c The drainage area that meets the standard (m 2 );M y is the total planned drainage area (m 2 );

[0084] In the formula, K c M is the reservoir drainage compliance rate; cl is the area of ​​reservoir drainage reaching the standard (m 2 );M yl The total drainage area planned for the reservoir (m 2 );

[0085] In the formula, R f is the regional flood retention capacity; W p is the total flood storage volume (m 3 );W f is the total amount of water inflow from typical historical floods or floods of corresponding frequency (m 3 );

[0086]

[0087] In the formula, K y V is the siltation loss rate of key reservoir capacity; los is the total siltation loss storage capacity (m 3 ); V is the total storage capacity (m 3 ).

[0088] In addition, the habitat maintenance capacity is selected as the ecological flow (water level) guarantee rate H F As a recommended indicator, the area index of the hydro-continental zone H is selected. A and the suitability of flow velocity (water level) during the key life history period H V As an alternative indicator, the water quality compliance rate W of the representative section is selected as the water quality compliance rate S As the recommended indicator, the water quality compliance rate W of the water functional area is selected. Q and regional river-lake water exchange rate W E As an alternative indicator, the biodiversity maintenance capacity selects the indicator species diversity B I As a recommended indicator, select the main group biodiversity B M As alternative indicators; the calculation formula of each indicator is:

[0089]

[0090] In the formula, H Fis the ecological flow (water level) guarantee rate; D F The number of sections (water bodies) that meet the ecological flow (water level); D E is the total number of evaluation sections (water bodies);

[0091] In the formula, H A L is the area index of the terrestrial and hydrological zone; O The number of water bodies that meet the area or width requirements of the ecotone; L E To evaluate the total number of water bodies;

[0092] In the formula, H V N is the suitability of flow velocity (water level) during the critical life history period; O N is the number of sections where the flow velocity (water level) of rivers and lakes meets the standard; E is the total number of river and lake sections involved in the assessment;

[0093] Where W S A is the water quality compliance rate of the representative section; O is the number of sections that meet the water quality standards; A E is the total number of representative sections; Where W Q F is the water quality compliance rate of water functional areas; O F is the number of water function areas that meet the standards; E is the total number of water functional areas; Where W E is the regional river-lake water exchange rate; R Z is the annual river and lake water inflow (m 3 );V h is the volume of rivers and lakes (m 3 );

[0094] In the formula, B I is indicative species diversity; M O is the number of indicator species; M E is the number of indicator species in the reference system;

[0095] In the formula, B M is the species diversity of the main groups; n is the total number of groups; Y i is the number of species in the i-th group in the region; JY i is the number of species in the i-th group of the reference system in the region.

[0096] Step 4: Select appropriate indicators for calculation based on the indicator system constructed in step 3, and assign points according to the scoring table, and use the hierarchical analysis method to calculate the water security guarantee capacity score of the river and lake water system connectivity in a certain area;

[0097] In this step, the scores of each indicator are shown in the following table:

[0098] Table 1 Scoring table of each indicator

[0099]

[0100]

[0101] The steps of the analytic hierarchy process are:

[0102] (1) Construct a judgment matrix: For a certain evaluation indicator, there are n indicators of the same level, a ij is the relative importance of the ith indicator to the jth indicator, which is determined by the 9-scale method based on expert opinions. The constructed judgment matrix is:

[0103]

[0104] (2) Processing the judgment matrix: Normalize each column of the judgment matrix A, calculate the eigenvector and maximum eigenvalue of the judgment matrix, and calculate the random consistency ratio for consistency test: B = (b ij ) n×n , C=(C1,C2,…,C n ) T ,

[0105] W=(W1,W2,…,W n ) T ;

[0106]

[0107]

[0108]

[0109] Where W is the matrix approximation eigenvector; λ max is the maximum eigenvalue; AW i is the i-th component of AW; CR is the random consistency ratio of the judgment matrix; CI is the general consistency index of the judgment matrix; RI is obtained by looking up the table (see Table 2); if CR < 0.1, the judgment matrix is ​​considered to pass the consistency test; the maximum eigenvalue λ max Each component of the corresponding eigenvector W represents the relative weight of each indicator of this layer to the indicator of the previous level.

[0110] Table 2 RI table of consistency of AHP

[0111] n 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 RI 0.00 0.00 0.58 0.90 1.12 1.24 1.32 1.41 1.45 n 10 11 12 13 14 15 RI 1.49 1.51 1.48 1.56 1.57 1.59

[0112] (3) Calculate the weight of each level of indicators according to the above process, multiply them from bottom to top to obtain the weight of each evaluation indicator relative to the overall goal, and finally weight each indicator according to its weight level by level to conduct a comprehensive evaluation of the goal. The calculation should be based on the following formula:

[0113]

[0114] In the formula, CI ws The score for the water security guarantee capability of the regional river and lake water system connection; * 1. w * 2. w * 3 are the weights of the three security capabilities of water resources security, flood control security and water ecological security; w i,j is the weight of the jth aspect in the i-th aspect guarantee capability; I i,j Score for the jth analysis indicator of the i-th aspect of assurance capability.

[0115] Step 5: Compare the water security capability score calculated in step 4 with the regional river and lake water system connectivity water security capability rating table to calculate the river and lake water system connectivity water security capability score, identify the water resource security, flood control security, and water ecological security issues in the region, and identify the river and lake water system connectivity issues that lead to insufficient water security capability in the evaluation area;

[0116] In this step, the water security guarantee capacity score of the regional river and lake water system connection (CI ws ) is 0 to 100 and can be divided into the following three levels:

[0117] (1) Adaptation: CI ws >85, indicating that the water security guarantee capacity of the regional river and lake water system is compatible with the demand;

[0118] (2) Basic adaptation: 60<CI ws ≤85, indicating that the water security guarantee capacity of the regional river and lake water system is basically compatible with the demand;

[0119] (3) Incompatible: CI ws ≤60, indicating that the water security capacity of the regional river and lake water system is not in line with the demand.

[0120] The following is the water security guarantee capacity of the river and lake water system in Linyi City as an evaluation example, and the implementation steps are as follows:

[0121] like Figure 1As shown in Figure 1, the criteria for evaluating the water security capacity of river-lake water systems are established, including water resources security capacity, flood control security capacity, and water ecological security capacity. Based on the evaluation index system, the groundwater development and utilization rate η, water resources allocation rate A μ , Water supply safety factor P S As evaluation indicators of the three characteristic layers of water resources carrying capacity, water resources allocation capacity and water supply security capacity, the flood control embankment compliance rate R s , drainage system compliance rate R l , Regional flood retention capacity R f As the evaluation index of the three characteristic layers of flood control, waterlogging removal and lake and reservoir regulation capacity, the ecological flow (water level) guarantee rate H is selected. F , Water quality compliance rate of water functional areas W Q 、Biodiversity of major groups M As an evaluation index for the three characteristic layers of habitat maintenance capacity, water quality compliance and biodiversity maintenance capacity;

[0122] (1) Water resources security capabilities

[0123] ① Groundwater development and utilization rate η

[0124]

[0125] Where, η is the groundwater development and utilization rate; W d is the amount of groundwater extracted in the region (m 3 );W dt is the total amount of groundwater that can be exploited in the region (m 3 According to the Linyi Water Resources Survey and Evaluation, the groundwater resources are 1.925 billion m 3 According to the Linyi Rainwater Resources Utilization Plan, Linyi's annual groundwater extraction capacity reaches 522 million m 3 According to the formula, it can be calculated that the utilization rate of groundwater resources in Linyi City is 27.1%, and according to the scoring table, its score is 95. ② Water resource allocation rate A μ

[0126] A μ =w1×γ st +w2×γ dr +w3×γ lf ;

[0127] In the formula, A μ is the water resource allocation rate; st is the water storage project allocation rate; dr The water diversion and allocation rate of the river-lake water system connection project; γ lf is the water allocation rate of the pumping station; w 1～3is the weight of the water storage project allocation rate, the water diversion allocation rate of the river-lake water system connection project, and the water lifting allocation rate of the pumping station, with a value range of 0 to 1, and w1+w2+w3=1;

[0128]

[0129] In the formula, γ st is the water storage project allocation rate; W st The water supply of the water storage project (m 3 );W * st is the maximum water storage capacity of the water storage project (m 3 ); In the formula, γ dr W is the water diversion and allocation rate of the river-lake water system connection project; dr Water supply for river-lake water system connection project (m 3 );W * dr is the maximum water diversion capacity of the river-lake water system connection project (m 3 ); In the formula, γ lf is the water allocation rate of the pumping station; W lf Water supply for pumping station (m 3 );W * lf is the maximum water lifting capacity of the pumping station (m 3 ). The water resource allocation rate is the weighted average of the allocation rate of water storage projects, the water lifting allocation rate of pumping stations, and the water diversion allocation rate of river-lake water system connection projects. It is a comprehensive indicator that reflects the ability to allocate water resources within the region. According to the "Linyi City Water Security Overall Plan", the situation of Linyi City's water storage, lifting and diversion projects is as follows: The city has built a total of 901 large, medium and small reservoirs, including 7 large reservoirs, 31 medium-sized reservoirs, and 863 small reservoirs. The total storage capacity of the reservoirs has reached 3.445 billion m 3 The designed storage capacity is 1.979 billion m 3 There are 1.779 million groundwater wells in the city, with a daily water intake of 20m 3 There are 22,900 electromechanical wells. The current production wells have a groundwater extraction capacity of 522 million m 3 The maximum water diversion flow rate of the Shuhe River to Xiaoyi River connection project is 5.0m 3 / s, with an annual water transfer capacity of 20 million m 3 ; Designed water diversion flow rate of the Yihe Hewan Reservoir to Shuhe River connection project is 10m 3 / s, water transfer scale 860,000 m 3 / d, the designed water supply scale of the water supply network around the main urban area of ​​Linyi is 300,000 m 3 / d, the total water supply scale of the Tangcun-Changli-Xujiaya Reservoir to Linyi City Joint Water Supply Project is 350,000 m3 / d, the total water supply scale of the joint water supply project from Bashan Reservoir and Shagou Reservoir to Linyi City is 340,000 m 3 / d, with an annual total water transfer capacity of 695 million m 3 , see Table 3. Table 3 Design scale of water storage, lifting and diversion projects in Linyi City

[0130] <![CDATA[Beneficial storage capacity of water storage project (100 million m 3 )]]> <![CDATA[Annual water intake capacity of water-lifting project (100 million m 3 )]]> <![CDATA[Water diversion capacity of water diversion project (100 million m 3 )]]> 19.79 5.22 6.95

[0131] According to the Linyi Water Resources Bulletin (Water Resources) from 2013 to 2018, the water supply of water storage, lifting and diversion projects is as follows: The average water supply of water storage projects in the city over the years is 624 million m 3 The average annual water supply of water pumping projects is 157 million m 3 The average annual water supply of water diversion projects is 450 million m 3 , see Table 4.

[0132] Table 4 Water supply of water storage, lifting and diversion projects in Linyi City

[0133] <![CDATA[Water supply of water storage project (100 million m 3 )]]> <![CDATA[Water supply volume of water-lifting project (100 million m 3 )]]> <![CDATA[Water supply volume of water diversion project (100 million m 3 )]]> 6.24 1.57 4.5

[0134] In summary, through calculation, the water storage project allocation rate, pump station water lifting allocation rate, and river-lake water system interconnection project water diversion allocation rate in Linyi City are as follows: the water storage project allocation rate is 31.5%, the pump station water lifting allocation rate is 30.1%, and the water diversion allocation rate of the water system interconnection project is 64.7%, see Table 5.

[0135] Table 5 Calculation results of the allocation rate of water storage, lifting and diversion projects in Linyi City

[0136] Water storage project allocation rate (%) Pumping station water allocation rate (%) Water diversion and allocation rate of water system connection projects (%) 31.5 30.1 64.7

[0137] According to the actual situation in Linyi City, the weights of the water storage project allocation rate, the pump station water allocation rate, and the water diversion allocation rate of the water system connection project are determined to be 0.321, 0.345, and 0.334 respectively. Finally, the water resource allocation rate of Linyi City is 42.1% based on the weighted calculation formula. According to the scoring table, its score is 17.

[0138] ③Water supply safety factor P S

[0139] P S =W A / W N ;

[0140] Where P S is the water supply safety factor; W A The sum of the water supply capacity of all water supply projects in the region (m 3 );W N is the average total water demand of the region in the past five years (m 3). In this embodiment, according to the Linyi Rainwater Resources Utilization Plan, the current annual total water demand of Linyi is 1.702 billion m3. According to the Linyi Water Resources Bulletin (Water Resources) from 2013 to 2018, the current annual total water supply of Linyi is 1.84 billion m 3 Therefore, it can be considered that the average water supply capacity of Linyi City under the current level is 1.84 billion m 3 . According to the formula, the water supply safety factor is 1.08, and according to the scoring table, the score is 58.

[0141] The weight analysis results of water resources security capability indicators are as follows:

[0142] Table 6 Calculation results of the allocation rate of water storage, lifting and diversion projects in Linyi City

[0143]

[0144] Note: Consistency ratio CR: 0.016

[0145] (2) Flood control and safety assurance capabilities

[0146] ①Flood control embankment compliance rate R s

[0147]

[0148] In the formula, R s is the flood control embankment compliance rate; L s is the standard length of flood control embankment (m); L tol is the total length of flood control embankments (m). According to the statistical information published by Linyi Water Conservancy Bureau, the length of flood control embankments in Linyi City that meet the standards is 1281.33 km, and the total length of flood control embankments is 1625.81 km. According to the formula, the compliance rate of flood control embankments is 78.8%, and according to the scoring table, its score is 59. ② Compliance rate of drainage system R l

[0149]

[0150] In the formula, R l is the drainage system compliance rate; M c The drainage area that meets the standard (m 2 );M y is the total planned drainage area (m 2). The calculation is based on the data from the 2016 Flood Control and Drainage Statistics Summary Table published by the Linyi Water Conservancy Bureau: the total drainage area is 216,420 hectares, of which 171,110 hectares meet the five-year flood control standard. According to the formula, the drainage system compliance rate is 79.1%, and according to the scoring table, the score is 59.

[0151] ③ Regional flood retention capacity R f

[0152]

[0153] In the formula, R f is the regional flood retention capacity; W p is the total flood storage volume (m 3 );W f is the total amount of water inflow from typical historical floods or floods of corresponding frequency (m 3 Linyi City has built a total of 901 large, medium and small reservoirs, including 7 large reservoirs, 31 medium-sized reservoirs and 863 small reservoirs, with a total reservoir capacity of 3.445 billion m 3 In addition, according to the design flood calculation results of the main control stations of the Yishu River and Si River, the flood volume of the Linyi station once in 50 years is 4.254 billion m 3 According to the formula, the regional flood retention capacity is 76.3%, and according to the scoring table, the score is 43.

[0154] The results of the weight analysis of flood control safety assurance capability indicators are as follows:

[0155] Table 7 Calculation results of the allocation rate of water storage, lifting and diversion projects in Linyi City

[0156]

[0157] Note: Consistency ratio CR: 0.046

[0158] (3) Water ecological security assurance capability

[0159] ①Ecological water level guarantee rate H F

[0160]

[0161] In the formula, H F is the ecological water level guarantee rate; D F The number of water bodies that meet the ecological water level; D E To evaluate the total number of water bodies. According to the statistics of Linyi Hydrological Station, the average water level of the upper lakes is greater than 33.0m, and the water level of the lakes in summer is greater than 31m. According to the formula, the ecological water level guarantee rate is 100%, and according to the scoring table, the score is 100.

[0162] ② Water quality compliance rate of water functional areas W Q

[0163]

[0164] Where W Q F is the water quality compliance rate of water functional areas; O F is the number of water function areas that meet the standards; E is the total number of water functional areas. There are 101 water functional areas in Linyi City that have undergone water quality evaluation, of which 49 have met the water quality standards. According to the formula, the water quality compliance rate of water functional areas is 48.5%, and according to the scoring table, the score is 48.5.

[0165] ③ Biodiversity of major groups B M

[0166]

[0167] In the formula, B M is the species diversity of the main groups; n is the total number of groups; Y i is the number of species in the i-th group in the region; JY i is the number of species in the i-th group of the reference system in the region. Migratory fishes were selected as the main species group in Linyi City. According to the relevant surveys in the historical period, there were 9 species of migratory fishes. According to the recent survey results, there were 6 species of migratory fishes. According to the formula, the species diversity of the main group is 66.7%, and according to the scoring table, its score is 66.7.

[0168] The weight analysis results of water ecological security capacity indicators are as follows:

[0169] Table 8 Calculation results of the allocation rate of water storage, lifting and diversion projects in Linyi City

[0170]

[0171] Note: Consistency ratio CR: 0.046

[0172] The results of the weight analysis of the evaluation criteria layer for the water security capacity of river-lake water system connectivity are as follows:

[0173] Table 9 Calculation results of the allocation rate of water storage, lifting and diversion projects in Linyi City

[0174]

[0175] Note: Consistency ratio CR: 0.016

[0176] According to the above process, the weight of each level of indicators is calculated, and the weight of each evaluation indicator relative to the total target is obtained by multiplying them step by step from bottom to top. The indicators are weighted step by step according to their weights, and the water resources security guarantee capacity score of Linyi City is 67.4, the flood control security guarantee capacity score is 52.4, and the water ecological security guarantee capacity score is 61.5. Finally, the water security guarantee capacity score of Linyi City's river and lake water system connection is calculated. ws It is 61.5. According to the classification standards, the water security capacity of the river and lake water system connection in Linyi City is basically adapted to the demand. It is necessary to improve the regional water security capacity by planning the river and lake water system connection project.

[0177] The above are only preferred embodiments of the present invention, and are not intended to limit the implementation methods and protection scope of the present invention. Those skilled in the art should be aware that all solutions obtained by equivalent substitutions and obvious changes made using the contents of the specification of the present invention should be included in the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for evaluating the water security capability of river and lake water systems, characterized in that: The steps include: Step 1: Establish criteria for evaluating water security capabilities of river-lake water system connections, including water resources security capabilities, flood control security capabilities, and water ecological security capabilities; Step 2: Create a criteria layer based on the criteria in step 1; Step 3: Construct an evaluation index system for water security capacity of river-lake water system connectivity based on the criterion layer of step 2; Step 4: Select appropriate indicators based on the indicator system constructed in step 3 for calculation and scoring, and then calculate the water security guarantee capacity score of the river and lake water system connectivity in a certain area; Step 5: Compare the water security capability score calculated in step 4 with the regional river and lake water system connectivity water security capability rating table to calculate the river and lake water system connectivity water security capability score, identify the water resource security, flood control security, and water ecological security issues in the region, and identify the river and lake water system connectivity issues that lead to insufficient water security capability in the evaluation area; Among them, the criterion layer in step 2 includes the water resources security capability criterion layer, the flood control security capability criterion layer, and the water ecological security capability criterion layer. Among them, the water resources security capability criterion layer selects three criterion characteristic layers: water resources carrying capacity, water resources allocation capacity, and water supply security capability; the flood control security capability selects three criterion characteristic layers: flood control compliance, waterlogging removal compliance, and lake and reservoir regulation capacity; the water ecological security capability criterion layer selects three criterion characteristic layers: habitat maintenance capacity, water quality compliance, and biodiversity maintenance capacity; In step 3, water resources carrying capacity is selected as water resources development and utilization capacity C w As a recommended indicator, the rainwater resource utilization capacity is selected F yh and groundwater development and utilization rate η As an alternative indicator; water resource allocation capacity selects water resource allocation rate A μ As a recommended indicator, select the dry season water level guarantee rate P sw And representative station water level satisfaction rate P Z As an alternative indicator; water supply safety factor is selected for water supply safety assurance capability P S As a recommended indicator, the strategic water source emergency guarantee rate is selected K W As an alternative indicator; The calculation formulas for each indicator are as follows: ； In the formula, C w To develop and utilize water resources; W u is the amount of water resources development and utilization, m 3 ; W r is the total amount of water resources m 3 ; C 0 is the exploitable rate of water resources; ； In the formula, F yh Ability to utilize rainwater resources; W yh In order to transform rainwater into usable water resources through river-lake water system connection projects, m 3 ; W hs is the total amount of rainfall and flood, m 3 ; ； In the formula, η The development and utilization rate of groundwater; W d is the amount of groundwater extracted in the region, m 3 ; W dt is the total amount of groundwater that can be developed and utilized in the region, m 3 ; ； In the formula, A μ is the water resource allocation rate; γ st It is the allocation rate of water storage project; γ dr It is the water diversion and allocation rate for river-lake water system connection projects; γ lf The water allocation rate for pumping stations; w 1~3 are the weights of the water storage project allocation rate, the water diversion allocation rate of the river-lake water system connection project, and the water lifting allocation rate of the pumping station, with a value range of 0~1, and w 1+ w 2+ w 3=1; ； In the formula, γ st It is the allocation rate of water storage project; W st is the water supply of the water storage project, m 3 ; W * st is the maximum water storage capacity of the water storage project, m 3 ; ； In the formula, γ dr It is the water diversion and allocation rate for river-lake water system connection projects; W dr Water supply for river-lake water system connection project, m 3 ; W * dr is the maximum water diversion capacity of the river-lake water system connection project, m 3 ; ； In the formula, γ lf The water allocation rate for pumping stations; W lf Water supply for pumping station, m 3 ; W * lf is the maximum water lifting capacity of the pumping station, m 3 ; ； In the formula, P sw is the water level guarantee rate in the dry season; T S The number of periods during which the water level reaches the minimum required water level in the dry season; T Z is the total number of time periods; ； In the formula, P Z is the water level satisfaction rate of the representative station; T M is the number of time periods during which the water level at the representative station reaches the guaranteed water supply level; T Z is the total number of time periods; ； In the formula, P S is the water supply safety factor; W A is the sum of the water supply capacity of all water supply projects in the region, m 3 ; W N is the average total water demand in the region in the past five years, m 3 ; ; In the formula, K W It is the emergency guarantee rate for strategic water sources; T E The number of years that strategic water reserves can meet water shortages; T lac is the total number of years of regional water shortage; In step 3, the flood control standard is selected as the flood control system standard rate F A As a recommended indicator, the flood control embankment compliance rate is selected R s As an alternative indicator; the waterlogging control standard is selected as the drainage system standard rate R l As the recommended indicator, the reservoir drainage compliance rate is selected K c As an alternative indicator, the lake and reservoir regulation capacity selects the regional flood retention capacity R f As the recommended indicator, the key reservoir capacity siltation loss rate is selected K y As an alternative indicator; The calculation formulas for each indicator are as follows: ； In the formula, F A The flood control system compliance rate; N fs is the number of flood control projects in the region that meet the expected standards; N f is the total number of regional flood control projects; ； In the formula, R s The compliance rate of flood control embankments; L s is the standard length of flood control embankment, m; L tol is the total length of the flood control embankment, m; ； In the formula, R l The compliance rate of drainage system; M c is the drainage area that meets the standards, m 2 ; M y is the total planned drainage area, m 2 ; ； In the formula, K c The rate of reaching the standard for waterlogging drainage in reservoirs; M cl is the area of ​​reservoir drainage that meets the standards, m 2 ; M yl is the total drainage area planned for the reservoir, m 2 ; ； In the formula, R f It is the regional flood retention capacity; W p is the total flood storage volume, m 3 ; W f is the total amount of water inflow from typical historical floods or floods of corresponding frequency, m 3 ; ； In the formula, K y is the siltation loss rate of key reservoir capacity; V los is the total siltation loss storage capacity, m 3 ; V is the total storage capacity of the library, m 3 ; In step 3, the habitat maintenance capacity is selected as ecological flow or water level guarantee rate H F As a recommended indicator, the area index of the hydro-continental zone is selected. H A and suitability of flow velocity or water level during key life history periods H V As an alternative indicator; the degree of water quality compliance is selected as the water quality compliance rate of the representative section W S As a recommended indicator, the water quality compliance rate of water functional areas is selected W Q and regional river and lake water exchange rates W E As an alternative indicator; select the diversity of indicative species for biodiversity maintenance capacity B I As a recommended indicator, select the main groups of biodiversity B M As an alternative indicator; The calculation formulas for each indicator are as follows: ； In the formula, H F is the ecological flow / water level guarantee ratio; D F Number of sections / water bodies to meet ecological flow / water level; D E is the total number of sections / water bodies evaluated; ； In the formula, H A is the area index of the ecotone; L O The number of water bodies required to meet the area or width requirements of the ecotone; L E To evaluate the total number of water bodies; ； In the formula, H V flow velocity / water level suitability during critical life history periods; N O The number of sections where the flow velocity / water level of rivers and lakes meet the standards; N E is the total number of river and lake sections involved in the assessment; ； In the formula, W S is the water quality compliance rate of the representative section; A O is the number of sections that meet the water quality standards; A E is the total number of representative sections; ； In the formula, W Q The water quality compliance rate of water functional areas; F O The number of water function areas that meet the standards; F E is the total number of water functional areas; ； In the formula, W E is the regional river and lake water exchange rate; R Z is the annual river and lake water inflow, m 3 ; V h is the volume of rivers and lakes, m 3 ; ； In the formula, B I is indicative of species diversity; M O is the number of indicator species; M E is the number of indicator species in the reference system; ； In the formula, B M species diversity for the main groups; n is the total number of groups; Y i For the region i Number of species in each group; JY i The reference system in the region i The number of species in a group.

2. The method for evaluating the water security capability of river and lake water systems according to claim 1, characterized in that: In step 4, the analytic hierarchy process is used to calculate the water security guarantee capacity score of the river and lake water system connectivity in a certain region, wherein the steps of the analytic hierarchy process include: (1) Constructing a judgment matrix: For the next level of a certain evaluation indicator, there is n Same-level indicators, a ij For the i The indicator for j The relative importance of the indicators constitutes the judgment matrix: ； (2) Processing the judgment matrix: Normalize each column of the judgment matrix A, calculate the eigenvector and maximum eigenvalue of the judgment matrix, and calculate the random consistency ratio for consistency test: , ； , ; ； ； ； ； In the formula, W is the matrix approximate eigenvector; λ max is the maximum eigenvalue; AW i for AW No. i Quantity; CR is the random consistency ratio of the judgment matrix; CI is the general consistency index of the judgment matrix; RI is obtained by looking up the table; if CR <0.1, the judgment matrix is ​​considered to have passed the consistency test; the maximum eigenvalue λ max The corresponding eigenvector W The components of represent the relative weight of each indicator at each level to the indicator at the previous level; (3) Calculate the weight of each level of indicators according to the above process, multiply them from bottom to top to obtain the weight of each evaluation indicator relative to the overall goal, and finally weight each indicator according to its weight level by level to conduct a comprehensive evaluation of the goal, calculated according to the following formula: ； In the formula, CI ws Score the water security capabilities of regional river and lake connectivity; w * 1、 w * 2、 w * 3 are the weights of the three security capabilities of water resources security, flood control security and water ecological security; w i,j For the i In terms of security capabilities j The weight of each aspect; I i,j For the i Aspects of security capabilities j The score of each analysis indicator.

3. The method for evaluating the water security capability of river and lake water systems according to claim 1, characterized in that: In step 5, the water security guarantee capacity score of regional river and lake water system connectivity CI ws It ranges from 0 to 100 and is divided into the following three levels: (1) Adaptation: CI ws >85, indicating that the water security guarantee capacity of the regional river and lake water system is compatible with the demand; (2) Basic adaptation: 60< CI ws ≤85, indicating that the water security guarantee capacity of the regional river and lake water system is basically compatible with the demand; (3) Incompatible: CI ws ≤60, indicating that the water security capacity of the regional river and lake water system is not in line with the demand.

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