A time series modeling method of wind power output based on fluctuation characteristics

Abstract

The present invention provides a wind power output time series modeling method based on fluctuation characteristics, comprising the following steps: collecting and sorting out historical wind power output data, and quantitatively describing the changing trend of wind fluctuation curves; counting statistical parameters of various wind fluctuations according to natural months According to the multidimensional joint probability distribution and the transition probability of various wind fluctuations; according to the multidimensional joint probability distribution and transition probability, random sampling is carried out according to the natural month, and the output value of the wind fluctuation output data points is calculated to obtain the simulated wind power output time series. The invention directly applies historical wind power output data, adopts statistical analysis and random sampling theory, simulates the random fluctuation characteristics of wind power output, and can construct realistic future wind power output scenarios.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a modeling method, in particular to a wind power output time series modeling method based on fluctuation characteristics. Background technique [0002] In recent years, with the large-scale development of wind power, my country's newly installed wind power installed capacity and accumulated wind power installed capacity have ranked first in the world. With the increasing proportion of wind power in the power supply of the entire power system, a deep understanding of the characteristics and laws of wind power output itself can accurately grasp the impact of wind power on the power system, so that the power system can more effectively solve the problem of wind power access. [0003] Wind power has uncertain characteristics such as randomness, volatility, and intermittency. These uncertain characteristics have brought a series of new problems to active power balance methods such as frequency modulation and peak regulation in the p...

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Problems solved by technology

[0003] Wind power has uncertain characteristics such as randomness, volatility, and intermittency. These uncertain characteristics have brought a series of new problems to active power balance methods such as frequency modulation and peak regulation in the power system. These problems also limit the large-scale development of wind power. develop

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