Wind power output time series modeling method based on fluctuation characteristics

A technology of time series modeling and wind power output, which is applied in the direction of instruments, data processing applications, calculations, etc., and can solve problems such as limiting the large-scale development of wind power

Active Publication Date: 2014-12-03
STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA +3
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Problems solved by technology

[0003] Wind power has uncertain characteristics such as randomness, volatility, and intermittency. These uncertain characteristics have brought a series of new problems to active power balance methods such as frequency modulation and peak regulation in the power system. These problems also limit the large-scale development of wind power. develop

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  • Wind power output time series modeling method based on fluctuation characteristics
  • Wind power output time series modeling method based on fluctuation characteristics
  • Wind power output time series modeling method based on fluctuation characteristics

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Embodiment Construction

[0050] The present invention will be described in further detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

[0051] Such as figure 1 , the present invention provides a method for modeling wind power output time series based on fluctuation characteristics, said method comprising the following steps:

[0052] Step 1: Collect and organize historical wind power output data, and quantitatively describe the changing trend of wind fluctuation curve;

[0053] Step 2: Calculate the multidimensional joint probability distribution of the statistical parameters of various wind fluctuations according to the natural month, and calculate the transition probability of various wind fluctuations;

[0054] Step 3: According to the multidimensional joint probability distribution and transition probability, random sampling is carried out according to the natural month, and the output value of the wind fluctuation output data points is calculated to obtain the simulated wind power outpu...

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Abstract

The invention provides a wind power output time series modeling method based on fluctuation characteristics. The method includes the following steps that historical wind power output data are collected and systemized, and a wind fluctuation curve variation trend is quantitatively described; multi-dimensional joint probability distribution of statistical parameters of all kinds of wind fluctuations is counted according to natural months, and transition probabilities of all the kinds of wind fluctuations are calculated; random sampling is carried out by means of the multi-dimensional joint probability distribution and the transition probabilities according to natural months, output values of output data points of the wind fluctuations are figured out, and a simulated wind power output time series is obtained. The historical wind power output data are directly applied to the method, statistical analysis and a random sampling theory are adopted, the random fluctuation characteristics of wind power output are simulated, and future wind power output scenes corresponding to reality can be constructed.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a modeling method, in particular to a wind power output time series modeling method based on fluctuation characteristics. Background technique [0002] In recent years, with the large-scale development of wind power, my country's newly installed wind power installed capacity and accumulated wind power installed capacity have ranked first in the world. With the increasing proportion of wind power in the power supply of the entire power system, a deep understanding of the characteristics and laws of wind power output itself can accurately grasp the impact of wind power on the power system, so that the power system can more effectively solve the problem of wind power access. [0003] Wind power has uncertain characteristics such as randomness, volatility, and intermittency. These uncertain characteristics have brought a series of new problems to active power balance methods such as frequency modulation and peak regulation in the p...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q50/06
Inventor 李驰刘纯黄越辉王跃峰刘德伟张楠高云峰礼晓飞许晓艳马烁李鹏李丽柳阳戴松霖刘延国蓝海波刘海涛王哲杨志刚崔慧军王靖然
Owner STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA
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