Variable message sign information release method of prediction model

A forecasting model and information release technology, applied in forecasting, arrangement of variable traffic indications, data processing applications, etc., can solve problems such as limited inducement, inability to display future road condition forecasting information on signposts, and limited assistance, and achieve overall traffic conditions. The effect of improving conditions

Active Publication Date: 2016-02-03
TSINGHUA UNIV
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Problems solved by technology

[0004] In the prior art, most of the variable information boards can only display the real-time road traffic conditions of the road network ahead in the form of light strips
However, real-time traffic conditions are of limited help to drivers in route selection: guidance signs canno

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  • Variable message sign information release method of prediction model
  • Variable message sign information release method of prediction model
  • Variable message sign information release method of prediction model

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Embodiment Construction

[0028] The present invention provides a variable information board information release method of a forecast model, comprising the following steps:

[0029] Step 1: Obtain the road traffic flow and vehicle average speed data of each road in the road network covered by the variable information board from 1 to 8 days ago, and the maximum time interval of the data is not greater than 1 minute;

[0030] Step 2: Use polynomial regression to establish road flow-travel time relationship based on historical traffic data, and use cross-validation to enhance model generalization;

[0031] Step 3: Assuming that the current moment is n, take the traffic flow at the n-3, n-2, n-1, and n-th moments respectively on the target road and the two roads geometrically adjacent to the target road as input variables ( A total of 12 input variables: x i，1 , x i，2 , x i，3 , x i，4 , x i，5 , x i，6 , x i，7 , x i，8 , x i，9 , x i，10 , x i，11 , x i，12 ), the traffic flow at the moment to be predi...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a variable message sign information release method of a prediction model, and belongs to the technical field of urban public transport management. The method comprises the steps that a multi-range travel time prediction model and a road network dynamic division method based on prediction time range are combined by utilizing statistical inference and machine learning methods on the basis of real road traffic data, and a dynamic and hierarchical traffic prediction model is established through combination of an urban road network structure and the characteristics of public guiding equipment; and information releasing is performed according to the characteristics of a variable message sign. The method has characteristics of hierarchy and refinement, and guiding information meeting the driving behaviors and decision habits is provided from the perspective of drivers through combination of the road network structure by aiming at the characteristics of the variable message sign so that the drivers can be assisted in passing through a guiding board to acquire the future traffic condition of a target road segment when actually arriving the target road segment and then make more reasonable path decisions, and thus the overall traffic condition of the road network near the guiding board can be improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of urban public traffic management, and in particular relates to a variable information board information publishing method of a prediction model. Background technique [0002] With the acceleration of urbanization in my country, the number of small and medium-sized cities is increasing day by day, and their position in the overall strategic planning of urban development in my country is becoming more and more important. At the same time, the economy of small and medium-sized cities is developing rapidly and the scale is constantly expanding. If the traffic problems they face cannot be solved well at this stage, the current traffic problems in large cities such as large-scale congestion during peak hours and increased traffic bottlenecks will be very serious. Likely to appear in the future. [0003] In order to solve this problem, it is very important to improve the guidance mode of public transportation an...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G08G1/09G06Q10/04
Inventor 胡坚明裴欣刘柏张毅谢旭东姚丹亚李力
Owner TSINGHUA UNIV
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