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Intelligent selection method for ensemble prediction

A technology of intelligent selection and collection, applied in special data processing applications, instruments, electrical digital data processing, etc., can solve problems such as very large deviations and large differences

Inactive Publication Date: 2016-03-30
SOUTH CHINA UNIV OF TECH
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  • Summary
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AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0003] The ensemble prediction method overcomes the shortcomings of a single prediction and provides multiple prediction data for the prediction of real data, but sometimes the multiple prediction values ​​given by the ensemble prediction are very different, and some prediction values ​​deviate greatly from the actual value. Need a good way to judge which of these data is closer to the actual value

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  • Intelligent selection method for ensemble prediction
  • Intelligent selection method for ensemble prediction
  • Intelligent selection method for ensemble prediction

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Embodiment Construction

[0026] The embodiments of the present invention will be further described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings, but the implementation of the present invention is not limited thereto.

[0027] Such as figure 2 , the main process of the intelligent selection method of combined prediction includes the following steps:

[0028] (a) Read the set forecast data and each corresponding actual value;

[0029] (b) The forecast data is regarded as an unordered vector, and the actual value, the maximum value, the minimum value, the average value, the median (that is, the 50th percentile point), the 25th percentile point and the 75th percentile point of the predicted data are respectively These 7 numbers are compared with the predicted data 7 times; the 25th percentile represents a certain number in a set of data, making 25% of the total data less than this number, the median is the 50th percentile, 75 points The point represents a certain number in a set of data, making ...

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Abstract

The present invention provides an intelligent selection method for ensemble prediction. The ensemble prediction provides a plurality of predictions of a certain numerical value, and the plurality of predictions form a one-dimensional random vector, so that an actual value is predicted as accurately as possible. The intelligent selection method for ensemble prediction comprises: performing classification statistics on historical data; then storing classification statistical information; and assessing the accuracy of ensemble prediction by comparing the statistical information, thereby selecting an accurate prediction from the predictions. According to the intelligent selection method for ensemble prediction, on the premise of disorderly ensemble prediction data, the ensemble prediction data are processed to select prediction data with the possibly smallest error with the actual value.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention generally relates to the fields of data statistics and data mining processing, and specifically relates to an intelligent selection method for set prediction. Background technique [0002] Prediction is a scientific investigation and analysis of the history and current situation of objective facts, inferring the future from the past and the present, and inferring the unknown from the known, thereby revealing the trends and laws of the future development of objective facts. We cannot wait until something happens and then act without predicting, so good forecasting is very necessary. However, when it comes to forecasting, no single forecasting method is absolutely valid. Regardless of the method used for forecasting, forecasting is limited and not perfect. [0003] The ensemble prediction method overcomes the shortcomings of a single prediction and provides multiple prediction data for the prediction of real data, but sometimes th...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06F19/00
CPCG16Z99/00
Inventor 黄翰潘一佩
Owner SOUTH CHINA UNIV OF TECH
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